DAILY I FOREX REPORT 18

TH

MARCH 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

US Dollar Breaks Trend Support, S&P 500 Eyes Record High

Euro to Overlook CPI, Aussie to Follow Dollar Higher on US Data

Euro Unlikely to Find Volatility in CPI Data, EU Summit Outcome

US Dollar, Aussie May Rise on Another Supportive Set of US Data

New Zealand Dollar Sold as Consumer Confidence Gauge Slumps

February’s Eurozone CPI report headlines a quiet European economic calendar. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to print at 1.8 percent, the lowest in 29 months. While soft price growth gives the ECB room to introduce stimulus to offset the Eurozone recession, the central bank seems unlikely to act while political instability in Italy undermines policy transmission. With that in mind, the data’s impact on the Euro is likely to be limited. The EU Leaders’ Summit enters its second day, but the sit-down is unlikely to yield demonstrable progress on the most significant issue facing the region – the political gridlock in Italy. Indeed, we discussed yesterday, there seems relatively little that can be done at the EU level (at least publically) until an increasingly likely repeat election is played out.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3070 tgs

1.3090/1.3110 sl 1.3040

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

96.25 tgt 96.45/96.65

SL 96.00

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5170 Tgt

1.5190/1.5210 SL

1.5140

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3012

HIGH: 1.3070

LOW: 1.3002

CLOSE: 1.3064

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 95.94

HIGH: 96.27

LOW: 95.88

CLOSE: 96.14

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL50

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5090

HIGH: 1.5168

LOW: 1.5068

CLOSE: 1.5154

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 73(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8623

HIGH: 0.8636

LOW: 0.8602

CLOSE: 0.8619

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.5370

HIGH: 83.6130

LOW: 82.2490

CLOSE: 82.2740

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.79(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon

Mar 11

JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations

High

00:01

GBP Lloyds Employment

Confidence (FEB)

Low -44

-45

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)

Medium -21.5%

-26.4%

07:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)

Medium 13.7B 13.9B 12.1B

07:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)

Low 11.3B 10.5B 20.2B

07:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low 3.3% 0.7% -1.5%

07:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)

Low 2.9%

2.9%

07:00

EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)

Low 0.8%

0.2%

08:15

CHF Retail Sales

(Real) (YoY) (JAN) Medium 1.9%

4.7%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

Medium -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%

09:00

EUR Italian Gross

Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

Medium -2.8% -2.7% -2.7%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3% 0.4%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price

Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.1% -0.2%

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.2% 1.4%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

23:50

JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-5.5

23:50

JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-10.3

Tue

Mar 12 00:01

EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)

Low

00:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)

Medium

-1% -4%

00:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)

Low

-2

00:30

AUD NAB Business

Confidence (FEB) Medium

3

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)

Low

$A49.9B

00:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)

Low

$A22.4B

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)

Medium

43.3

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

07:00

EUR German Wholesale Price Index

(YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.6% 0.6%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)

High

1.5% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)

Medium

0.8% 0.8%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)

(FEB F)

High

1.8% 1.8%

09:00

EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)

Low

0.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM)

(JAN)

Low

0.1% 1.1%

09:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.1% -1.7%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.0% 1.6%

09:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.0% -1.5%

09:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-£8950 -£8897

09:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds)

(JAN)

Medium

-£3200 -£3201

09:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)

Low

-£4500 -£4239

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)

Low

90.0 88.9

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)

Low

3617

15:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)

Medium

0.0%

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)

Medium

21:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.9%

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)

Medium

7.7%

23:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

108.3

Wed Mar 13

AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

7%

NZD New Zealand

Manpower Survey (2Q) Medium

15%

00:30

AUD Home Loans (JAN)

Medium

0.5% -1.5%

00:30

AUD Investment Lending (JAN)

Low

-2.4%

00:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-2.7%

06:30

EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)

Low

-0.2% -0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production

s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.1% 0.70%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-2.0% -2.3%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)

Low

14.80%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.5% 0.6%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6% -1.3%

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)

High

0.5% 0.1%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)

Medium

0.5% 0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.1%

14:00

USD Business Inventories (JAN)

Medium

0.4% 0.1%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)

Low

3833K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

257K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories

(MAR 8)

Low

-616K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)

Low

-3830K

20:00

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

2.50% 2.50%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying

Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

¥657.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)

Low

¥269.6B

Thu Mar 14

00:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)

Medium

2.2%

CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

14%

JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)

Low

11

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.8% -7.3%

00:30

AUD Employment Change (FEB)

High

10.0K 10.4K

00:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

5.5% 5.4%

00:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-9.8K

00:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

20.2K

00:30

AUD Participation Rate

(FEB) Low

65.0% 65.0%

02:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

Low

66.7%

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales

(YoY) (FEB)

Low

-5.4%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

1.0%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium

-5.1%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)

Low

2.9%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)

Medium

08:30

CHF Swiss National

Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)

High

0.00% 0.00%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)

(4Q)

Low

-0.7%

12:30

CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)

Low

12:30

USD Current Account Balance (4Q)

Low

-$112.8B -$107.5B

12:30

CAD New Housing

Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2%

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.3%

12:30

USD Producer Price

Index (MoM) (FEB) Medium

0.6% 0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.1% 0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.7% 1.4%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)

Medium

340K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)

Low

3094K

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)

Low

-146

20:30

USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review

Low

21:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)

Medium

55.2

Fri Mar 15

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

Medium

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

Low

121

00:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)

Low

2.3%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.1%

08:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.8%

09:30

EUR Itally General Government Debt

(JAN)

Medium

1988.4B

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4% -1.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8% 1.8%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.3% 1.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)

Low

2.0%

12:30

USD Empire

Manufacturing (MAR) Low

8 10.04

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.4% 0.0%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.8% 1.6%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)

High

2.0% 1.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price

Index Core Index s.a. (FEB)

Medium

232.138 232.108

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)

Low

230.28

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)

Low

$25.2B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)

Medium

$64.2B

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.3%

13:15

USD Industrial Production (FEB)

Medium

0.3% -0.1%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)

Low

79.3% 79.1%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)

Low

0.3% -0.4%

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)

Medium

78 77.6

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