daily outlook...global stock markets mostly retreated on wednesday as a record number of new...

11
Page 1 of 11 Research Department 15 October 2020 Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L | GLOBAL ECONOMIES Negative rates in New Zealand are a real possibility and there are no concerns yet that such rates would be problematic for banks, a senior central bank official said on Wednesday. Asked if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was merely using the threat of negative rates to put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said the guidance was not “a game of bluff”. China’s new bank loans grew more than expected in September fuelled by a jump in corporate loans as the economy continued to recover from its coronavirus-induced slump. The country’s economic outlook has turned more optimistic on aggressive government stimulus, with recent data pointing to a steady improvement from the COVID-19 health crisis. Lenders issued 1.9 trillion yuan ($282.3 billion) in new yuan loans, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Wednesday, up 48.4% from August and exceeding analysts’ expectations. Britain should do more to help the unemployed find work, and fixing the huge hole in its public finances can wait until a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is well under way, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said. The world’s sixth-biggest economy was at “a critical juncture” as the crisis threatens to worsen its productivity and inequality problems, and Brexit could also deal a major blow, the watchdog said in an annual report. British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that he believed a second national lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus would carry heavy economic and social costs. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that he was disappointed there had not been more progress in Brexit trade talks, his office said on Wednesday. European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss Brexit will say that progress in talks with Britain is “still not sufficient” to seal a new trade deal, according to a draft summit decision seen by Reuters. As the year-end deadline approaches to put in place a new relationship with ex-member Britain, the 27 national EU heads will also agree to step up contingency preparations for an abrupt split, without a deal to avoid trade tariffs or quotas. Top EU officials in Brussels told Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a call on Wednesday evening that Britain had to move in their talks on a new trade partnership after Brexit. “We pressed again for progress to be made at the negotiation table,” Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said after the call, which also included the head of the bloc’s executive. Five European Central Bank policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, floated proposals on Wednesday for changing how the ECB goes about the business of steering price growth in the euro zone. With the ECB in the middle of its first strategic review in nearly two decades, proposals ranged from buying more green bonds to letting inflation overshoot the symbolic 2% threshold to doing nothing at all. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation, leading to the first year-on-year gain since March. But the report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed a jump in the price of iron and steel scrap, did not change the view that overall inflation was cooling amid excess capacity at industries. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.3% in August. U.S. economic data since May has been “surprisingly strong,” though it will still take perhaps another year for output to claw back to its pre-pandemic peak, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Wednesday said he and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi were “far apart” on some details of another coronavirus relief package, and that an agreement would be hard to reach before the Nov. 3 election. The U.S. State Department has submitted a proposal for the Trump administration to add China’s Ant Group to a trade blacklist, according to two people familiar with the matter, before the fintech arm of e-commerce giant Alibaba is slated to go public. GLOBAL MARKETS Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets to traditional safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen. Concerns that a resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic could lead governments to again shut down economies spurred profit-taking, particularly after the recent stock rally. Pandemic uncertainties

Upload: others

Post on 16-Oct-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 1 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

Negative rates in New Zealand are a real possibility and there are no concerns yet that such rates would be problematic for banks, a senior central bank official said on Wednesday. Asked if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was merely using the threat of negative rates to put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said the guidance was not “a game of bluff”.

China’s new bank loans grew more than expected in September fuelled by a jump in corporate loans as the economy continued to recover from its coronavirus-induced slump. The country’s economic outlook has turned more optimistic on aggressive government stimulus, with recent data pointing to a steady improvement from the COVID-19 health crisis. Lenders issued 1.9 trillion yuan ($282.3 billion) in new yuan loans, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Wednesday, up 48.4% from August and exceeding analysts’ expectations.

Britain should do more to help the unemployed find work, and fixing the huge hole in its public finances can wait until a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is well under way, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said. The world’s sixth-biggest economy was at “a critical juncture” as the crisis threatens to worsen its productivity and inequality problems, and Brexit could also deal a major blow, the watchdog said in an annual report.

British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that he believed a second national lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus would carry heavy economic and social costs.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that he was disappointed there had not been more progress in Brexit trade talks, his office said on Wednesday.

European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss Brexit will say that progress in talks with Britain is “still not sufficient” to seal a new trade deal, according to a draft summit decision seen by Reuters. As the year-end deadline approaches to put in place a new relationship with ex-member Britain, the 27 national EU heads will also agree to step up contingency preparations for an abrupt split, without a deal to avoid trade tariffs or quotas.

Top EU officials in Brussels told Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a call on Wednesday evening that Britain had to move in their talks on a new trade partnership after Brexit. “We pressed again for progress to be made at the negotiation table,” Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said after the call, which also included the head of the bloc’s executive.

Five European Central Bank policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, floated proposals on Wednesday for changing how the ECB goes about the business of steering price growth in the euro zone. With the ECB in the middle of its first strategic review in nearly two decades, proposals ranged from buying more green bonds to letting inflation overshoot the symbolic 2% threshold to doing nothing at all.

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation, leading to the first year-on-year gain since March. But the report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed a jump in the price of iron and steel scrap, did not change the view that overall inflation was cooling amid excess capacity at industries. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.3% in August.

U.S. economic data since May has been “surprisingly strong,” though it will still take perhaps another year for output to claw back to its pre-pandemic peak, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Wednesday said he and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi were “far apart” on some details of another coronavirus relief package, and that an agreement would be hard to reach before the Nov. 3 election.

The U.S. State Department has submitted a proposal for the Trump administration to add China’s Ant Group to a trade blacklist, according to two people familiar with the matter, before the fintech arm of e-commerce giant Alibaba is slated to go public.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets to traditional safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen.

Concerns that a resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic could lead governments to again shut down economies spurred profit-taking, particularly after the recent stock rally. Pandemic uncertainties

Page 2: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 2 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

were compounded by news on Tuesday of halts to separate trials for a COVID-19 vaccine and a treatment, tempering a brief stock boost from U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group's strong earnings report.

Remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that a deal for more fiscal stimulus would not likely be reached before the Nov. 3 elections also capped gains in shares.

France declared a public health state of emergency on Wednesday, while Italy, Russia and Poland all reported their highest-ever daily tallies of new infections. With COVID-19 cases surging, some European nations are closing schools, canceling surgeries and enlisting student medics as overwhelmed authorities braced for a repeat of the nightmare scenario seen earlier this year.

The pan-European STOXX 600 ended barely changed at 370.62, while markets in Frankfurt and Paris were flat and down 0.1%, respectively. London, buffeted in part by Brexit angst, dropped 0.6%. World stocks slipped 0.3% but stayed within sight of the all-time high struck on Sept. 3.

Asian stocks were also lackluster. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan ended a seven-day rally and slipped 0.11%, a day after hitting a 2-1/2 year high of 588.76. Chinese shares closed down 0.7%.

Government bonds also benefited from investor caution. German bund yields, which move inversely to prices, hit their lowest since May. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 0.7256%, and the yield curve - the gap between two- and 10-year yields - flattened a touch on news that more U.S. fiscal stimulus was unlikely before the Nov. 3 election.

FOREX

The dollar index retreated on Wednesday, a day after notching its biggest daily percentage gain in three weeks, and the euro hit its lowest level in a week as global equity markets remained cautious on waning hopes a COVID-19 vaccine or U.S. fiscal stimulus was on the horizon. The dollar jumped on Tuesday on concerns about the length of time before a COVID-19 vaccine would be available and on diminishing expectations that a fresh fiscal stimulus package would be agreed upon in the United States before the Nov. 3 presidential election. The greenback was off its earlier lows, however, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi were “far apart” on some details of a relief package, and an agreement would be hard to reach prior to the election. Earlier in the session, the greenback had extended declines after data showed the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% in September, topping the 0.2% forecast, after advancing 0.3% in August, amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation that led to the first year-on-year gain since March. The dollar index fell 0.197%. The pound fell to $1.2865, its lowest level since Oct. 7, as hopes dimmed for a Brexit agreement, before recovering after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said some progress had been made, although differences still remained in trade talks. Sterling was last trading at $1.303, up 0.76% on the day. The euro edged higher after its biggest daily percentage drop since mid-August on Tuesday. Euro zone industrial production data showed the recovery slowed sharply in August, in line with expectations. European nations are extending restrictions well beyond social life to close schools, cancel surgeries and enlist legions of student medics as overwhelmed authorities face their nightmare scenario of a COVID-19 resurgence at the onset of winter. The euro was up 0.06% to $1.17515.

GOLD

Gold gained 1% on Wednesday, rebounding from a sharp decline in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and global economic recovery boosted the safe haven metal’s allure. Spot gold was up 1% to $1,910.06 per ounce by 9:54 a.m. EDT (1354 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $1,914.70. The dollar was down against major currencies, while the benchmark 10-year yield also fell. Bullion dipped as much as 1.9% on Tuesday after the greenback rallied on an impasse over U.S. stimulus. Gold, considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has climbed 26% this year amid the unprecedented levels of global stimulus to ease the economic blow from the pandemic. Investors also kept an eye on the U.S. presidential campaign, with polls showing Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading the race. Elsewhere, silver rose 1.5% to $24.52 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.2% to $866.59 and palladium gained 1.7% to $2,355.13.

OIL

Oil prices strengthened on Wednesday, as OPEC and its allies were seen complying with a pact to cut oil supply in September, even as concerns loomed that recovery in fuel demand will be stalled by soaring global coronavirus cases. Early in the day crude was boosted by a bullish stock market. Even as equities whipsawed on pandemic worries, oil stayed higher, buoyed by expectations that OPEC could staunch a supply glut. Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Wednesday, supported by heavyweight technology stocks. The dollar traded lower, which can boost oil as investors switch asset classes. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)is expected to show crude oil stockpiles moving lower in the latest week, according to analysts polled by Reuters. The American Petroleum

Page 3: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 3 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

Institute said U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected in the latest week, according to a report released after market close on Wednesday. Analysts expect the U.S. Energy Information Administration data to confirm that draw on Thursday, a Reuters poll showed. Brent crude futures for December delivery settled up 87 cents, or 2.05%, at $43.32 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures also traded higher, settling up 84 cents, 2.09%, at $41.04 a barrel. OPEC+ had 100% compliance with a pact to cut oil supply in September was seen at 102%, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) conformity with the oil output reduction in September was 105%, while non-OPEC compliance was 97%, one of the sources said. “There is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in COVID-19 cases in many countries,” the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. OPEC cut its oil demand forecast on Tuesday, citing economic dislocations caused by the virus. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that leading oil producers will start easing output curbs as planned in January despite a spike in coronavirus cases.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAS

T PREV. REV.

10-Oct - 18-Oct N/A CN Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Sep -- 18.7%

Mon/12-Oct-20 06:50 JP Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY Sep 6.4% -- 6.7%

06:50 JP Bank Lending Incl Trusts YoY Sep -- 6.7%

06:50 JP Core Machine Orders MoM Aug 0.2% -1% 6.3%

06:50 JP Core Machine Orders YoY Aug -15.2% -15.6% -16.2% 06:50 JP PPI MoM Sep -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%

06:50 JP PPI YoY Sep -0.8% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% 12:45 CH SECO October 2020 Economic Forecasts 13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Sep P -15% -- -23.2% -23.3%

ALL CA Bank Holiday (Thanksgiving Day) 21:00 GB BOE's Haskel speaks. 23:00 GB BOE's Bailey speaks.

Tue/13-Oct-20 10:00 CN Exports YoY Sep 9.9% 10% 9.5% 10:00 CN Exports YoY CNY Sep 9% 11.6% 10:00 CN Imports YoY Sep 13.2% 0.3% -2.1%

10:00 CN Imports YoY CNY Sep 0.2% -0.5% 10:00 CN Trade Balance Sep $37b $58b $58.93b 10:00 CN Trade Balance CNY Sep 419.50b 416.59b

13:00 GB Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Aug 0% -0.6% -1% 13:00 GB Claimant Count Rate Sep 28k 78.8k 7.6% 39.5k

13:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep F -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.2% 13:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep F -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.1% 13:00 DE CPI MoM Sep F -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

13:00 DE CPI YoY Sep F -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 13:00 GB Employment Change 3M/3M Aug -153k -30k -12k 13:00 GB ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Aug 4.5% 4.3% 4.1%

13:00 GB Jobless Claims Change Sep 28k 78.8k 73.7k 13:00 GB Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Aug 0.8% 0.6% 0.2%

16:00 DE ZEW Survey Current Situation Oct -59.5 -60 -66.2 16:00 EZ ZEW Survey Expectations Oct 52.3 -- 73.9 16:00 DE ZEW Survey Expectations Oct 56.1 73 77.4

17:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Sep 104 101.2 100.2 19:30 US CPI Core Index SA Sep 269.26 269.392 268.747 19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%

19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Sep 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 19:30 US CPI Index NSA Sep 260.28 260.225 259.918

19:30 US CPI MoM Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 19:30 US CPI YoY Sep 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 19:30 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Sep -- 3.3%

19:30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Sep -- 3.9%

Wed/14-Oct-20 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Oct 105 -- 93.8 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Oct 11.9%0 -- 18%

08:00 KR BoK 7-Day Repo Rate Oct-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 11:30 JP Capacity Utilization MoM Aug 2.9% -- 9.6% 11:30 JP Industrial Production MoM Aug F 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 8.7%

11:30 JP Industrial Production YoY Aug F -13.8% -13.3% -13.3% -15.5%

Page 4: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 4 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

16:00 EZ Industrial Production SA MoM Aug 0.7% 0.8% 4.1% 5%

16:00 EZ Industrial Production WDA YoY Aug -7.2% -7.2-% -7.7% 7.1% 19:00 EZ ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks

19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Sep 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Sep 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Sep 0.2% 0.3%

19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Sep -- 0.3% 19:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Sep 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 19:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Sep 0.4% 0.2% -0.2%

20:00 GB BOE's Haldane speaks 20:00 US Fed’s Clarida Discusses U.S. Economic Outlook

21:00 EZ ECB's Villeroy speaks at online conference 21:30 US Fed’s Quarles Takes Part in Panel on Financial Stability

Thu/15-Oct-20 02:00 US Fed’s Kaplan Discusses The Road Ahead for Central Banks 02:00 US Fed’s Quarles Discusses Financial Regulation

02:00 US Fed's Kaplan, Quarles Speak on Financial Supervision 04:45 AU RBA's Lowe Gives Speech Online

05:00 US Fed's Kaplan to Hold Virtual Town Hall 07:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Oct -- 3.1%

07:30 AU Employment Change Sep -35.0k 111.0k 07:30 AU Full Time Employment Change Sep -- 36.2k 07:30 AU Part Time Employment Change Sep -- 74.8k

07:30 AU Participation Rate Sep 64.8% 64.8% 07:30 AU Unemployment Rate Sep 7.1% 6.8% 08:30 CN CPI YoY Sep 1.9% 2.4%

08:30 CN PPI YoY Sep -1.9% -2% 11:30 JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM Aug 1.6% -0.5%

19:30 US Continuing Claims Oct-03 -- 10976k 19:30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 12 17 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-10 -- 840k

19:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Oct 14.5 15 20:00 GB BOE's Cunliffe speaks. 20:00 US Fed's Bostic to Speak on Benefits Cliffs

20:45 CA Bank of Canada's Tim Lane Speaks on Panel 22:00 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Oct-09 -- 470k

22:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Oct-09 -- 501k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Oct-09 -- -962k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Oct-09 -- -1435k

22:00 US Fed’s Kaplan Speaks to U.S. India Chamber of Commerce 22:00 US Fed’s Quarles Discusses Response to Covid-19

Fri/16-Oct-20 04:00 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook

04:30 NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Sep -- 50.7 06:00 KR Unemployment rate SA Sep 3.8% 3.2% 16:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Sep F 0.2% 0.2%

16:00 EZ CPI MoM Sep F 0.1% 0.1% 16:00 EZ CPI YoY Sep F -0.3% -0.3% 16:00 EZ Trade Balance NSA Aug -- 27.9b

16:00 EZ Trade Balance SA Aug -- 20.3b 19:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Aug -- 7%

19:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Sep 0.7% 0.6% 19:30 US Retail Sales Control Group Sep 0.2% -0.1% 19:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Sep 0.4% 0.7%

19:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Sep 0.4% 0.7% 20:15 US Capacity Utilization Sep 72% 71.4% 20:15 US Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.6% 0.4%

20:15 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Sep 0.8% 1% 21:00 US Business Inventories Aug 0.3% 0.1%

21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Oct P -- 2.6% 21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Oct P -- 2.7% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Oct P -- 87.8

21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Oct P -- 75.6 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct P 80 80.4

Sat/17-Oct-20 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct-16 -- --

Page 5: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 5 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

@researchvaf @rekhmen

EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)

1.18224

RESISTANCE 1.17961

1.17717

SUPPORT

1.17210

1.16947

1.16703

SUGGESTION

BUY ---

SELL 1.1755

S/L 1.1795

T/P:

1.1690 1.1675

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 1.17432 1.17697 1.17190 50,7 1.17474 3,3 1.17441

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.18255 (12/Oct) 1.17190 (14/Oct) 1.18269 (09/Oct) 1.16945 (02/Oct) 1.20100 (01/Sep) 1.06362 (20/Mar) All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USDJPY Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/-0.1% (JP)

105.880

RESISTANCE 105.692

105.400

SUPPORT

104.920

104.732

104.440

SUGGESTION

BUY 105.05

SELL ---

S/L 104.75

T/P:

105.50 105.65

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 105.480 105.504 105.024 48,0 105.108 37,2 105.48

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

105.648 (12/Oct) 105.024 (14/Oct) 106.095 (07/Oct) 104.931 (02/Oct) 112.213 (20/Feb) 101.170 (09/Mar)

Page 6: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 6 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

@researchvaf @rekhmen

GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.10% (GB)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 1.32959

RESISTANCE 1.31795

1.30946

SUPPORT

1.28933

1.27769

1.26920

SUGGESTION

BUY 1.2985

SELL ---

S/L 1.2915

T/P:

1.3110 1.3160

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 1.29337 1.30632 1.28619 201,3 1.30096 76,1 1.29335

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.30816 (12/Oct) 1.28619 (14/Oct) 1.30816 (12/Oct) 1.28185 (01/Oct) 1.34813 (01/Sep) 1.14094 (20/Mar)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ -1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

0.92053

RESISTANCE 0.91834

0.91559

SUPPORT

0.91065

0.90846

0.90571

SUGGESTION

BUY 0.9125

SELL ---

S/L 0.9095

T/P:

0.9175 0.9190

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 0.91436 0.91615 0.91121 49,4 0.91284 14,0 0.91424

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

0.91615 (14/Oct) 0.90848 (12/Oct) 0.92174 (02/Oct) 0.90848 (12/Oct) 0.98998 (20/Mar) 0.89975 (31/Aug)

Page 7: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 7 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

@researchvaf @rekhmen

AUD/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (AU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)

0.72243

RESISTANCE 0.72069

0.71860

SUPPORT

0.71477

0.71303

0.71094

SUGGESTION

BUY 0.7160

SELL ---

S/L 0.7150

T/P:

0.7185 0.7195

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 0.71582 0.71895 0.71512 38,3 0.71652 7,3 0.71579

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

0.72336 (12/Oct) 0.71490 (13/Oct) 0.72386 (09/Oct) 0.70948 (06/Oct) 0.74124 (01/Sep) 0.55067 (19/Mar)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

NZD/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (NZ)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 0.67174

RESISTANCE 0.66992

0.66797

SUPPORT

0.66420

0.66238

0.66043

SUGGESTION

BUY 0.6655

SELL ---

S/L 0.6645

T/P:

0.6680 0.6690

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 0.66492 0.66811 0.66434 37,7 0.66602 11,6 0.66486

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

0.66811 (14/Oct) 0.66275 (13/Oct) 0.66811 (14/Oct) 0.65455 (08/Oct) 0.67966 (18/Sep) 0.54682 (19/Mar)

Page 8: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 8 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

@researchvaf @rekhmen

USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ 0.25% (CA) 1.32112

RESISTANCE 1.31866

1.31642

SUPPORT

1.31172

1.30926

1.30702

SUGGESTION

BUY 1.3135

SELL ---

S/L 1.3120

T/P:

1.3160 1.3175

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 1.31357 1.31620 1.31150 47,0 1.31419 5,2 1.31367

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.31620 (14/Oct) 1.30980 (13/Oct) 1.33396 (07/Oct) 1.30980 (13/Oct) 1.46674 (19/Mar) 1.29559 (07/Jan)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

EURJPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)

124.323

RESISTANCE 124.122

123.811

SUPPORT

123.299

123.098

122.787

SUGGESTION

BUY 123.45

SELL ---

S/L 123.15

T/P:

123.95 124.15

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 123.911 123.921 123.409 51,2 123.500 41,1 123.911

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

124.868 (12/Oct) 123.409 (14/Oct) 125.066 (09/Oct) 123.006 (02/Oct) 127.047 (01/Sep) 114.399 (06/May)

Page 9: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 9 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

@researchvaf @rekhmen

GOLD (XAU/USD)

1945.64

RESISTANCE 1929.23

1915.19

SUPPORT

1884.74

1868.33

1854.29

SUGGESTION

BUY 1899.00

SELL ---

S/L 1892.00

T/P:

1908.00 1915.00

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 1892.22 1912.82 1882.37 30.45 1901.16 10.28 1890.88

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1933.07 (12/Oct) 1882.37 (14/Oct) 1933.07 (12/Oct) 1872.84 (07/Oct) 2075.18 (07/Aug) 1450.81 (16/Mar)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

SILVER (XAG/USD)

25.375

RESISTANCE 24.993

24.615

SUPPORT

23.855

23.473

23.095

SUGGESTION

BUY 24.20

SELL ---

S/L 23.95

T/P:

24.55 24.80

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 24.152 24.611 23.851 0.76 24.237 0.13 24.104

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

25.538 (12/Oct) 23.851 (14/Oct) 25.538 (12/Oct) 22.858 (06/Oct) 29.834 (07/Aug) 11.616 (18/Mar)

Page 10: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 10 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen

OIL WTI – CL-NOV/USD (Exp. 16 Oct 2020)

42.89

RESISTANCE 42.02

41.56

SUPPORT

40.23

39.36

38.90

SUGGESTION

BUY 40.90

SELL ---

S/L 40.40

T/P:

41.50 42.00

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 14 40.17 41.15 39.82 1.33 41.10 0.92 40.18

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

41.15 (14/Oct) 39.04 (12/Oct) 41.46 (09/Oct) 36.63 (02/Oct) 65.63 (08/Jan) 6.54 (21/Apr)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

Page 11: Daily Outlook...Global stock markets mostly retreated on Wednesday as a record number of new coronavirus infections in parts of Europe led investors to shift away from risky assets

Page 11 of 11

Research Department 15 October 2020

DISCLAIMER: The information contained above is intended to provide general information and does not constitute or purports to be a financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Any strategies, views or opinions expressed above are not intended to be presented as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Client should seek personal professional advice before making any decisions. The client should ensure that financial instruments are suitable for his/her own individual objectives, financial situation and investment needs. This report is prepared for the use of Valbury e-Capital clients. The reproduction and redistribution of this material is strictly prohibited