daily report 20150119

3
Change % (Day) YTD change % MSE - Top20 MN 14,608.25 -0.02 -1.66 DJIA US 17,511.57 1.10 -1.75 S&P 500 US 2,019.42 1.34 -1.92 Nasdaq US 4,634.38 1.39 -2.15 S&P/TSX comp CN 14,309.41 1.91 -2.21 FTSE 100 UK 6,550.27 0.79 -0.24 S&P/ASX 200 US 5,366.70 1.27 -0.82 Hang Seng HK 24,103.52 -1.02 2.11 Bloomberg/asia.pac ASIA 186.99 0.06 1.59 COMMODITY PRICES Change % (Day) YTD change % Prime Coking Coal /Tianjin 136.92 0.00 -1.16 Zinc Spot /LME 2,091.75 1.83 -3.47 Iron Ore 58%/Tianjin 68.80 -49.33 Copper Spot /LME 5,768.00 1.53 -9.42 Oil 48.68 -0.02 -8.62 Gold Spot /LME 1,278.04 -0.19 7.91 Silver Spot /LME 17.77 -0.11 13.10 MONGOLIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Date Last YoY change % RGDP /bln. MNT/ 2014.09 11,094 7.0 NGDP /bln.MNT/ 2014.09 16,517 18.8 Inflation 2014.11 11.5 Foreign reserve /mln. USD/ 2014.11 1,352.1 -41.5 Policy rate July 31 ,2014 12.00 DEBT MARKET Bonds - Coupon Amt. issued mln USD Last Yield Maturity date DBM bond - 5.75 580 94.00 8.847 3/21/2017 MMC bond - 8.875 600 66.50 31.056 3/29/2017 Mongol 2018 - 4.125 500 91.08 7.197 1/5/2018 Mongol 2022 - 5.125 1,000 83.04 7.911 12/5/2022 TDBM 2015 - 8.5 300 99.50 9.260 9/20/2015 TDBM 2015 - 12.5 25 98.31 13.267 11/17/2015 TDBM 2017 - 10 dim sum 115 96.88 11.523 1/21/2017 DBM bond - 1.52 sam. 290 104.52 0.964 12/25/2023 INDICES CHANGE MSE TOP 5 MOST TRADED Trade value '000 MONGOLIAN RELATED NEWS Auto trade complex to open in March In order to reduce traffic congestion in UB, it has been decided to resettle open-air markets operating in the capital. Auto markets are now being relocated and a project to build an auto trade complex started in March last year. The first stage of the complex was supposed to be launched in October 2014 but work on the complex was postponed. The first stage of the project is almost 80 percent complete, and the Administration Office of Ulaanbaatar is planning to launch business at the auto trade complex starting in March this year. The construction of the complex will be ready for 100 percent utilization in June 2015. http://english.news.mn/content/201475.shtml External trade reaches USD 11.0 billion Total external trade turnover of Mongolia reached USD 11.0 billion, of which USD 5,774.6 million was made up by exports, whereas MNT 5,236.6 million by imports in 2014 after trading with 139 countries. Total external trade turnover increased by USD 384.3 million or 3.6%; the exports rose by USD 1,505.5 million or 35.3% and imports declined by USD 1,121.2 million or 17.6% against 2013. External trade balance showed a deficit or USD 2.1 billion in 2013, while it was in a surplus of USD 537.9 million in 2014. http://en.montsame.mn/economics/item/9911-external-trade-reaches-usd-11-0-billion Salary and pensions to be increased by 10 percent In 2014, the government dedicated 250 billion MNT for pension and salary increases for state employees. The decision was officially made on January 15 to increase salary and pensions by 10 percent, following the results of a three-party municipal labor concession agreement, the Agreement of Labor and Society, made between the Labor Ministry, Mongolian Trade Union, and Joint Union of Employers. Accordingly, a total of 103 billion MNT will be additionally allotted for the increase in the 2015-2016 state budget. Ninety billion MNT will be spent on salary increases for civil servants and 13 billion MNT will be devoted to pension and allowance increases. A discussion regarding when to increase the salaries and pensions, as well as which departments will first see the increases, will be held after the approval of 2015 budget amendments. The agreement also includes the decision to exempt the payment of personal income tax for those earning minimum wage to increase the real income of taxpayers. The minimum monthly wage in Mongolia is 192,500 MNT, which means that approximately 12,000 MNT will not be withdrawn from minimum wage salaries each month. The three- party labor talks also resulted in the agreement that when private sector businesses are about to make a decision to liquidate, file for bankruptcy, or carry out job cuts, an employer should discuss the decision in advance with employee protection agencies and take measures to save jobs. Critics question how the salary and pension increases will be funded when the state budget is in crisis. According to MP Ch.Khurelbaatar, the government estimates it will be able to finance the expenses by imposing a tax on imported oil products and increasing the excise tax amount. However, a decision on these tax changes has not been finalized yet. Labor representatives say there is an urgent need to increase salaries and pensions, as salary increases are not catching up with inflation rate increases. According to a survey by Mongol Bank, 1.2 million people are working in the industrial sector and 35 percent of them took out salary loans of 1.2 trillion MNT. Some sixty-five percent of pensioners have taken out pension loans. http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/?p=13119 GLOBAL NEWS Asia Stocks Rise After Oil Jumps, U.S. Consumer Confidence Grow Asian stocks rose, led by materials companies, after oil rebounded and U.S. consumer confidence jumped to an 11-year high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 138.20 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets opened in China and Hong Kong. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent after the gauge climbed 1.3 percent on Friday as energy shares rallied with Brent crude surging the most in two years. U.S. markets are closed Monday for a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 13.4 times the estimated earnings of its constituent companies as of its close on Friday, when it capped a second week of declines. That compares with 16.6 times for the S&P 500. Japan’s Topix index gained 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.7 percent. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, surged 5.2 percent, the most since June 2012, to $50.17 a barrel on Friday. It slipped 0.5 percent today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-19/asia-stocks-rise-after-oil-jumps-u-s-consumer- confidence-grows.html 2015-01-19 19 January 2015 Daily Report Performance Last Country Index Indicator Performance Last USD Commodity NEWS & ANALYSIS -1.66 -1.75 -2.15 -2.21 -0.24 -0.82 2.11 3.69 -2.60 YTD % -0.02 1.10 1.39 1.91 0.79 1.27 -1.02 1.35 0.79 MSE - Top20 DJIA Nasdaq S&P/TSX comp FTSE 100 S&P/ASX 200 Hang Seng DAX Nikkei 225 Change % (Day) 4,150 1,688 1,647 1,005 960 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 DLG MIB TCK MMX GTL -12.31 % -4.53% -2.63% -1.39% 0.00% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 January-13 February-13 March-13 April-13 May-13 June-13 July-13 August-13 September-13 October-13 November-13 December-13 January-14 February-14 March-14 April-14 May-14 June-14 July-14 August-14 September-14 October-14 November-14 December-14 January-15 Thousands Volume MSETOP Index Daily Report | 2015.01.19

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Change %

(Day)YTD change %

MSE - Top20 MN 14,608.25 -0.02 -1.66

DJIA US 17,511.57 1.10 -1.75

S&P 500 US 2,019.42 1.34 -1.92

Nasdaq US 4,634.38 1.39 -2.15

S&P/TSX comp CN 14,309.41 1.91 -2.21

FTSE 100 UK 6,550.27 0.79 -0.24

S&P/ASX 200 US 5,366.70 1.27 -0.82

Hang Seng HK 24,103.52 -1.02 2.11

Bloomberg/asia.pac ASIA 186.99 0.06 1.59

COMMODITY PRICES

Change %

(Day)YTD change %

Prime Coking Coal /Tianjin 136.92 0.00 -1.16

Zinc Spot /LME 2,091.75 1.83 -3.47

Iron Ore 58%/Tianjin 68.80 -49.33

Copper Spot /LME 5,768.00 1.53 -9.42

Oil 48.68 -0.02 -8.62

Gold Spot /LME 1,278.04 -0.19 7.91

Silver Spot /LME 17.77 -0.11 13.10

MONGOLIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Date LastYoY change

%

RGDP /bln. MNT/ 2014.09 11,094 7.0

NGDP /bln.MNT/ 2014.09 16,517 18.8

Inflation 2014.11 11.5

Foreign reserve /mln. USD/ 2014.11 1,352.1 -41.5

Policy rate July 31 ,2014 12.00

DEBT MARKET

Bonds - Coupon

Amt.

issued mln

USD

Last Yield Maturity date

DBM bond - 5.75 580 94.00 8.847 3/21/2017

MMC bond - 8.875 600 66.50 31.056 3/29/2017

Mongol 2018 - 4.125 500 91.08 7.197 1/5/2018

Mongol 2022 - 5.125 1,000 83.04 7.911 12/5/2022

TDBM 2015 - 8.5 300 99.50 9.260 9/20/2015

TDBM 2015 - 12.5 25 98.31 13.267 11/17/2015

TDBM 2017 - 10 dim sum 115 96.88 11.523 1/21/2017

DBM bond - 1.52 sam. 290 104.52 0.964 12/25/2023

INDICES CHANGE

MSE TOP 5 MOST TRADED

Trade value '000

MONGOLIAN RELATED NEWS

Auto trade complex to open in March

In order to reduce traffic congestion in UB, it has been decided to resettle open-air markets operating

in the capital. Auto markets are now being relocated and a project to build an auto trade complex

started in March last year. The first stage of the complex was supposed to be launched in October

2014 but work on the complex was postponed. The first stage of the project is almost 80 percent

complete, and the Administration Office of Ulaanbaatar is planning to launch business at the auto

trade complex starting in March this year. The construction of the complex will be ready for 100

percent utilization in June 2015.

http://english.news.mn/content/201475.shtml

External trade reaches USD 11.0 billion

Total external trade turnover of Mongolia reached USD 11.0 billion, of which USD 5,774.6 million was

made up by exports, whereas MNT 5,236.6 million by imports in 2014 after trading with 139 countries.

Total external trade turnover increased by USD 384.3 million or 3.6%; the exports rose by USD

1,505.5 million or 35.3% and imports declined by USD 1,121.2 million or 17.6% against 2013.

External trade balance showed a deficit or USD 2.1 billion in 2013, while it was in a surplus of USD

537.9 million in 2014.

http://en.montsame.mn/economics/item/9911-external-trade-reaches-usd-11-0-billion

Salary and pensions to be increased by 10 percent

In 2014, the government dedicated 250 billion MNT for pension and salary increases for state

employees. The decision was officially made on January 15 to increase salary and pensions by 10

percent, following the results of a three-party municipal labor concession agreement, the Agreement

of Labor and Society, made between the Labor Ministry, Mongolian Trade Union, and Joint Union of

Employers. Accordingly, a total of 103 billion MNT will be additionally allotted for the increase in the

2015-2016 state budget. Ninety billion MNT will be spent on salary increases for civil servants and 13

billion MNT will be devoted to pension and allowance increases. A discussion regarding when to

increase the salaries and pensions, as well as which departments will first see the increases, will be

held after the approval of 2015 budget amendments. The agreement also includes the decision to

exempt the payment of personal income tax for those earning minimum wage to increase the real

income of taxpayers. The minimum monthly wage in Mongolia is 192,500 MNT, which means that

approximately 12,000 MNT will not be withdrawn from minimum wage salaries each month. The three-

party labor talks also resulted in the agreement that when private sector businesses are about to

make a decision to liquidate, file for bankruptcy, or carry out job cuts, an employer should discuss the

decision in advance with employee protection agencies and take measures to save jobs. Critics

question how the salary and pension increases will be funded when the state budget is in crisis.

According to MP Ch.Khurelbaatar, the government estimates it will be able to finance the expenses

by imposing a tax on imported oil products and increasing the excise tax amount. However, a

decision on these tax changes has not been finalized yet. Labor representatives say there is an

urgent need to increase salaries and pensions, as salary increases are not catching up with inflation

rate increases. According to a survey by Mongol Bank, 1.2 million people are working in the industrial

sector and 35 percent of them took out salary loans of 1.2 trillion MNT. Some sixty-five percent of

pensioners have taken out pension loans.

http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/?p=13119

GLOBAL NEWS

Asia Stocks Rise After Oil Jumps, U.S. Consumer Confidence Grow

Asian stocks rose, led by materials companies, after oil rebounded and U.S. consumer confidence

jumped to an 11-year high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 138.20 as of 9:01 a.m.

in Tokyo, before markets opened in China and Hong Kong. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500

Index slid 0.1 percent after the gauge climbed 1.3 percent on Friday as energy shares rallied with

Brent crude surging the most in two years. U.S. markets are closed Monday for a holiday. The MSCI

Asia Pacific Index traded at 13.4 times the estimated earnings of its constituent companies as of its

close on Friday, when it capped a second week of declines. That compares with 16.6 times for the

S&P 500. Japan’s Topix index gained 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1 percent.

New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.7 percent.

Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, surged 5.2 percent, the most since June

2012, to $50.17 a barrel on Friday. It slipped 0.5 percent today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-19/asia-stocks-rise-after-oil-jumps-u-s-consumer-

confidence-grows.html

2015-01-19

19 January 2015Daily Report

PerformanceLastCountryIndex

Indicator

PerformanceLast

USDCommodity

NEWS & ANALYSIS

-1.66

-1.75

-2.15

-2.21

-0.24

-0.82

2.11

3.69

-2.60

YTD %

-0.02

1.10

1.39

1.91

0.79

1.27

-1.02

1.35

0.79

MSE - Top20

DJIA

Nasdaq

S&P/TSX comp

FTSE 100

S&P/ASX 200

Hang Seng

DAX

Nikkei 225

Change % (Day)

4,150

1,688

1,647

1,005

960

0 2,000 4,000 6,000

DLG

MIB

TCK

MMX

GTL

-12.31%

-4.53%

-2.63%

-1.39%

0.00%

-15% -10% -5% 0%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Janu

ary

-13

Feb

ruary

-13

Ma

rch

-13

April-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

June

-13

July

-13

Augu

st-

13

Sep

tem

ber-

13

Octo

be

r-1

3

No

ve

mbe

r-13

De

ce

mbe

r-13

Janu

ary

-14

Feb

ruary

-14

Ma

rch

-14

April-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

e-1

4

July

-14

Augu

st-

14

Septe

mb

er-

14

Octo

be

r-1

4

No

ve

mbe

r-14

De

ce

mbe

r-14

Janu

ary

-15

Th

ou

san

ds

Volume MSETOP Index

Daily Report | 2015.01.19

19 January 2015 2

MONGOLIAN RELATED COMPANIES

Name Sym Currency Last Chg day % YTD %Trade value

000 USD

Market cap

mln USD/52w high 52w low

Currency

cross

Turquoise Hill TRQ US Equity USD 2.730 1.11 -11.94 9,365.0 5,493.58 4.36 2.65 1.00

Centerra Gold CG CN Equity CAD 6.820 -0.15 12.91 13,362.8 1,346.81 7.07 3.16 1.20

MMC 975 HK Equity HKD 0.320 0.00 -5.88 487.7 382.41 0.84 0.31 7.75

Denison Mines Corp DML CN Equity CAD 1.090 4.81 -3.54 1,011.3 460.61 1.95 1.02 1.20

Winsway Coking Coal Holdings Ltd 1733 HK Equity HKD 0.250 1.63 -1.96 82.2 121.70 0.55 0.24 7.75

MoEnCo 276 HK Equity HKD 0.420 -2.33 5.00 22.0 91.53 1.06 0.38 7.75

SouthGobi Resources 1878 HK Equity HKD 4.070 6.54 5.44 471.2 114.87 6.20 3.49 7.75

Central Asia Metals PLC CAML LN Equity GBp 145.000 0.00 -20.77 34,143.6 244.98 190.00 138.75 0.66

Mongolia Investment Group Ltd 402 HK Equity HKD 0.275 0.00 -17.91 305.3 238.46 0.38 0.16 7.75

Mongolia Growth Group YAK CN Equity CAD 0.700 0.00 -5.41 25.8 20.38 3.07 0.68 1.20

North Asia Resources Holdings Ltd 61 HK Equity HKD 0.132 -1.49 -10.81 2.6 103.58 0.21 0.10 7.75

Guildford Coal Ltd GUF AU Equity AUD 0.037 12.12 2.78 13.9 27.94 0.11 0.03 1.22

Origo Partners PLC OPP LN Equity GBp 6.125 0.00 0.00 2,319.0 33.09 8.25 6.13 0.66

Entree Gold Inc ETG CN Equity CAD 0.195 -4.88 -4.88 18.2 23.94 0.52 0.18 1.20

Aspire Mining Ltd AKM AU Equity AUD 0.034 0.00 3.03 19.4 19.68 0.07 0.03 1.22

Prophecy Coal Corp PCY CN Equity CAD 0.060 0.00 20.00 5.5 12.62 0.11 0.04 1.20

FeOre Ltd FEO AU Equity AUD 0.026 0.00 0.00 1.2 11.32 0.08 0.02 1.22

Petro Matad Ltd MATD LN Equity GBp 2.250 0.00 5.88 0.0 9.52 9.50 2.00 0.66

Xanadu Mines Ltd XAM AU Equity AUD 0.100 0.00 0.00 8.8 29.90 0.18 0.03 1.22

Haranga Resources Ltd HAR AU Equity AUD 0.013 0.00 -7.14 0.2 3.66 0.09 0.01 1.22

Wolf Petroleum Ltd WOF AU Equity AUD 0.035 -12.50 -22.22 1.6 8.62 0.08 0.03 1.22

Manas Petroleum Corp MNAP US Equity USD 0.090 0.00 0.07 0.0 15.03 0.17 0.04 1.00

Khan Resources Inc. KRI CN Equity CAD 0.410 0.00 -15.46 20.9 23.33 0.49 0.21 1.20

East Asia Minerals Corp EAS CN Equity CAD 0.015 0.00 50.00 6.6 1.49 0.11 0.01 1.22

Erdene Resource Development Corp ERD CN Equity CAD 0.115 15.00 9.52 0.5 7.94 0.26 0.09 1.20

Modun Resources Ltd MOU AU Equity AUD 0.003 0.00 0.00 3.1 4.38 0.01 0.00 1.22

Kincora Copper Ltd KCC CN Equity CAD 0.025 0.00 0.00 0.4 6.47 0.09 0.02 1.20

General Mining Corp Ltd GMM AU Equity AUD 0.005 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.55 0.02 0.01 1.22

Draig Resources Ltd DRG AU Equity AUD 0.015 0.00 15.38 10.7 0.82 0.04 0.01 1.22

Newera Resouces Ltd NRU AU Equity AUD 0.002 0.00 0.00 0.5 2.01 0.01 0.00 1.22

Blina Minerals NL BDI AU Equity AUD 0.001 0.00 0.00 0.0 1.32 0.00 0.00 1.22

Source: Bloomberg

MONGOLIAN STOCK MARKET

16 January 2015 14 JSC's 14,305 shares worth 10.80 mln MNT have been traded.

TOP20 index was 14,608.25 -0.02% YTD -1.66%

Company name Trade volumeTrade value

'000Last Chg day Chg day % Buy volume Buy price Sell price Sell volume

DLG 1,456 4,150 2850 -400 -12.31% 0 0 2850 24

MIB 8,036 1,688 210.04 -10 -4.53% 11177 210 219 114

TCK 89 1,647 18500 -500 -2.63% 0 0 18500 191

MMX 283 1,005 3550 -50 -1.39% 17 3550 3600 171

GTL 101 960 9500 0 0.00% 402 9500 11000 483

TTL 111 477 4300 0 0.00% 172 4100 4300 95

MRX 3,446 303 88 0 0.00% 2000 85 90 8140

GOV 23 170 7400 0 0.00% 50 7350 7400 10

ADL 100 150 1500 0 0.00% 97 1500 1550 334

APU 38 143 3750 0 0.00% 100 3702 3750 3

SHG 10 58 5805 5 0.09% 18 5800 6500 328

JTB 550 48 88.02 -1 -1.10% 122 88 89 2201

HGN 32 3 99 4 4.21% 2665 95 99 5158

ETR 30 3 96 0 0.00% 1674 90 96 3931

Change day

30 day graphic

3

0

2014.09 2702.1

2013.06 7591

13606.65

3250

91.076

19 January 2015

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by the investment banking division of Golomt Bank for information purpose only. The views expressed are the views of the analyst and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and factors. The information provided does not constitute investment advice or other recommendations and should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security or to pursue any trading or investment strategy. All material, including information sourced from or attributed to Golomt Bank, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee for future results. Accordingly you must independently determine, with your own advisors, the appropriateness for you of the securities/transactions before investing or transacting.

Investment Banking Division of Golomt Bank The principal activities of Investment Banking Division constitute structuring, sourcing, negotiating and closing debt and equity financings as well as the provision of incisive advisory services for private and public companies as well as institutions, public sector agencies and authorities. Our vision is to fuel the profitable growth of our valued clients by providing the highest-quality investment banking services, and in so doing create an environment which will lead to long term, mutually beneficial relationships. We strive to achieve these lasting relationships by matching each client assignment with the collaborative expertise of the Bank’s team of seasoned banking and investment professionals. Contact Sukhbaatar Square, Ulaanbaatar 210620A, Mongolia Fax: +976-70117676 /1402/ E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.golomtbank.com