daily report€¦ · 23.06.2016 nbs key rate + 0.25% source: public debt management agency source:...
TRANSCRIPT
Source: Daily FX
Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD
117.5933 117.5974 0.00% -0.51% 1.0988 1.0937 0.47% -4.05%
107.4991 108.2650 -0.71% 3.98% 1.0554 1.0569 -0.14% -6.24%
111.4523 111.0457 0.37% 6.17% 0.8781 0.8693 1.01% -1.83%
133.7503 135.0297 -0.95% 1.96% 1.2513 1.2582 -0.55% -2.63%Source: NBS 106.7800 106.9300 -0.14% -2.26%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Value Next decision Value
1.50% 7.5.2020 0.00%
Deposit facility 0.50% 0.25%
Lending facility 2.50% 0.10%
Repo operations (one week) 0.50% -0.75%
Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg
1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change (bps) 1.5.2020 30.4.2020 Change(bps)
0.53% 0.53% 0.00 0.000% -0.446% 0.446
0.92% 0.92% 0.00 0.000% -0.531% 0.531
1.18% 1.18% 0.00 0.000% -0.460% 0.460
1.38% 1.38% 0.00 0.000% -0.273% 0.273
Source: Reuters 0.000% -0.170% 0.170
Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF
Note: Values are with 1 day delay
Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)
0.303% 0.330% -0.026 -0.310% -0.307% -0.003
0.541% 0.556% -0.015 -0.267% -0.273% 0.006
0.713% 0.760% -0.046 -0.087% -0.100% 0.013
-0.720% -0.722% 0.002 1.079% 1.297% -0.218
-0.595% -0.583% -0.012 1.093% 1.284% -0.191
-0.552% -0.560% 0.008 1.220% 1.379% -0.159
Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD 654.3 mln (EUR 5.5 mln). Bond trading amounted in RSD 641.7 mln (EUR 5.4 mln).
ECB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%.
Euro streghtened against the dollar ($1.0988).
U.S. stocks fell as investors considered warnings in corporate earnings reports about future profit hits from the coronavirus. S&P 500 down 2.8%, Dow Jones
lost 2.6%, Nasdaq fell 3.2%.
Most European markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday.
Gold higher ($1707.02). Oil lower (WTI $18.36 and Brent $28.87).
Financial Market Analysis
Treausury and ALM department
DAILY REPORT
Flash
Dinar marginally changed against euro (117.5933).
Bank of the Group
May 4, 2020
Key events
TimeCountry/
RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast
16:00 US
FX rates and money market
FX rates on domestic market International markets
Currency Currency
Durable Goods Orders Mar F -14.40% -14.40%
GBP/RSD GBP/USD
USD/JPY
National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates
EUR/RSD EUR/USD
USD/RSD EUR/CHF
CHF/RSD EUR/GBP
United Kingdom (BOE) 7.5.2020
Switzerland (SNB) 18.6.2020
Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe
Next decision
Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 4.6.2020
US (FED) 10.6.2020
BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M
Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap
Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING
BEONIA EONIA
BELIBOR1M
EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M
EURIBOR6M
€STR
Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING
Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING
Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
1.12
1.14
EUR/USD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
117
118
119
120
121
122EUR mio EUR/RSD
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Date Currency
5.5.2020 RSD
19.5.2020 RSD
27.5.2020 EUR
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Moody's S&P Fitch
Ba3 BB+ BB+
Outlook Positive Positive Stable
Date 6.9.2019 13.12.2019 27.3.2020 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Bloomberg
Date Value Previous Date Value Previous
04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%
02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 28.04.2020 0.50% 0.49%
29.04.2020 1.79% 1.80% 23.10.2019 0.60% 1.15%
24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 18.03.2020 1.10% 1.48%
02.04.2020 2.15% 3.39% 11.06.2018 2.50%
21.04.2020 2.60% 2.60% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%
05.11.2019 2.69% 3.40% 25.03.2020 1.89% 1.89%
07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%
10.03.2020 3.35% 3.40% 29.01.2020 3.00%
23.06.2016NBS key rate +
0.25%
NBS key rate +
0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Vrednost Prethodna UST spred
Serbia 10y 2021 3.519% 3.626% 3.519%
Srbija 10g 2029 0.000% 3.214%Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed income
Scheduled auctions
RSD Government securities EUR Government securities
Instrument Value
Serbia Credit rating
50,000,000,0002y government bond
5y government bond 10,000,000,000
5y government bond 50,000,000
2 years 5 years
3 years 7 years
5 years 10 years
Maturity
3 months 53 weeks
6 months 2 years
53 weeks 3 years
Maturity
7 years
10 years
24 month amortizing
Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)
15 years
20 years12 years
12 years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
Serbian 10y Eurobond 2029 Price Yield (right axis)
1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5
10.511.512.513.514.5
Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions
3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y 12y
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions
53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 12y 15y 20y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800
EUR yield curve
Interpolation T-bills
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
0 180 360 540 720 900 1080 1260 1440 1620 1800 1980 2160 2340 2520
RSD yield curve
Interpolation T-bills
2
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
Sourc: Bloomberg
NIIS 529 3,927,825 1.54% -0.38% 0.34 5.61 6.19
TGAS 13,543 501,091 0.26% 0.32% 0.71 6.75 11.05
ALFA 26,500 159,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.56 30.90 1.74
AMSO 900 94,500 20.64% 50.00% 0.37 3.50 11.37
IRTL 1,179 70,740 17.90% 0.00% 0.71 12.99 5.42
MTLC 1,775 26,625 0.00% -1.55% 0.67 8.57 8.17
AERO 848 1,696 -0.24% -8.72% 0.37 0.56 95.94
Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.23%
Source: Bloomberg
crobex sbi20
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
sofix bet-c
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
dj balkan
Source: Bloomberg
Belgrade Stock Exchange
Value Previous value Change YTD
Belex 15 655.41 655.30 0.02% -13.97%
Belex line 1,451.26 1,454.51 -0.22% -8.48%
Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,50 2,04
Turnover 654,381,659 RSD 3,479,244,755 RSD -81.19%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange
5,564,593 € 29,585,842 € -81.19%
The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day
Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor
RSD
Daily
change
Weekly
change
NIS AD NOVI SAD 86,258,951,600 Din.
MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 14,039,459,294 Din.
ALFA PLAM AD VRANJE 4,169,298,000 Din.
P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 29,702,157,392 Din.
AMS OSIGURANJE AD BEOGRAD 348,095,000 Din.
IRITEL AD BEOGRAD 342,032,616 Din.
METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,621,000,000 Din.
Regional stock exchanges
Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous
dayChange YTD
Crobex Hrvatska 1,544.30 1,544.30 -16.20%
SBITOP Slovenija 801.85 801.85 -0.58%
SOFIX Bugarska 447.45 447.45 -33.95%
BET Rumunija 7,978.64 7,978.64 2.90%
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 381.80 382.69 -18.91%
1,350
1,450
1,550
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
2,150
CROBEX
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
SOFIX
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
BET
300
400
500
600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850 Belex 15
-0.24%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.26%
1.54%
AERO KMBN ENHL MTLC FITO JESV ALFA TGAS NIIS
Daily change of Belex 15 members
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800Belex line
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
SBITOP
3
Source: Bloomberg
dow jones s&p
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nasdaq dax
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
nikkei dj stoxx
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1400 Biljana Radosavljević [email protected] [email protected]
Darko Karanović 201-3624
Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626
Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD
World stock exchanges
S&P 500 US 2,830.71 2,912.43 -2.81% 5.88%
Dow Jones Industrial US 23,723.69 24,345.72 -2.55% -4.03%
DAX Germany 10,861.64 10,861.64 0.00% -15.92%
NASDAQ US 8,604.95 8,889.55 -3.20% 24.65%
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 337.39 340.03 -0.78% -13.31%
FTSE UK 5,763.06 5,901.21 -2.34% -25.04%
ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)
Dealing
Disclaimer
This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.
Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in
Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be
reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
Nikkei 225 Japan 19,619.35 20,193.69 -2.84% -13.82%
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000Dow Jones Industrial
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
S&P 500
5,800
6,300
6,800
7,300
7,800
8,300
8,800
9,300
9,800
10,300NASDAQ Composite
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450DJ Stoxx 600
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
Nikkei 225
\
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000DAX
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Oil Brent (USD/bbl)
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800Gold
\
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95 Vix Index
4