daily report - banca intesa beograd · oil rose on signs the pace of u.s. stockpile gains is...

Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

118.9350 119.0355 -0.08% -3.67% 1.1994 1.1953 0.34% 14.04%

99.0217 99.3701 -0.35% -15.46% 1.1547 1.1496 0.44% 7.71%

102.9919 103.4012 -0.40% -10.32% 0.8889 0.8854 0.40% 9.48%

133.7852 134.5186 -0.55% -6.97% 1.3510 1.3495 0.11% -4.59%Source: NBS 111.5900 111.5700 0.02% 4.15%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

3.75% 9.10.2017 0.00%

Deposit facility 2.25% 1.25%

Lending facility 5.25% 0.25%

Repo operations (one week) 2.72% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

19.9.2017 18.9.2017 Change (bps) 19.9.2017 18.9.2017 Change(bps)

2.59% 2.59% 0.00 -0.361% -0.363% 0.002

3.06% 3.06% 0.00 -0.373% -0.373% 0.000

3.32% 3.33% -0.01 -0.330% -0.329% -0.001

3.53% 3.54% -0.01 -0.272% -0.271% -0.001

Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

1.237% 1.236% 0.001 -0.058% -0.050% -0.008

1.326% 1.325% 0.001 0.215% 0.231% -0.016

1.479% 1.474% 0.004 0.868% 0.888% -0.020

-0.785% -0.785% 0.000 1.735% 1.716% 0.019

-0.726% -0.726% 0.000 1.912% 1.889% 0.023

-0.649% -0.649% 0.000 2.201% 2.177% 0.024

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange 248,91 mln RSD (2,09 mln €). Bonds trading 243,25 mln RSD (2,04 mln €).

IMF projects Serbian growth of 2.3 percent in 2017, increasing to around 3½ percent in 2018.

Euro gained against USD, slightly above 1.20 USD at the moment.

European stocks slightly changed. US stocks slightly up, with all three major benchmark indexes notching all-time high.

Oil rose on signs the pace of U.S. stockpile gains is slowing as refiners resume operations after Hurricane Harvey, boosting crude demand.

Gold holds near lowest this month.

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar gained against euro 0,1% (118,9350). National Bank of Serbia intervened by purchasing of 15 mln € on forex market.

Bank of the Group

September 20, 2017

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

20:00 US

The market’s focus is the FOMC meeting and adoption of the monetary

policy decision. Given that the market expects the interest rates to

remain unchanged, potential announcement of the start date of shrinking

the Fed’s balance sheet attracts the greatest attention (expected

October). It is also expected that FOMC repeats that it will gradually

increase interest rates depending on macroeconomic indicators,

specially CPI data. Dots by FED is also eagerly expected.

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

FED Funds rate upper bound 1.25% 1.25%

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

United Kingdom (BOE) 14.9.2017

Switzerland (SNB) 14.12.2017

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 26.10.2017

US (FED) 20.9.2017

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M

BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING





1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.2

1.21EUR/USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

http://www.bancaintesa.rs/code/navigate.aspx?Id=1

Date Currency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB- BB-

Outlook Stable Positive Stable

Date 17.3.2017 16.6.2017 16.6.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 30.08.2017 0.55% 0.55%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 14.09.2017 0.99% 1.04%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 21.06.2017 1.87% 1.89%

13.06.2017 4.65% 4.65% 20.07.2017 2.60% 2.69%

31.08.2017 4.80% 4.90% 13.07.2017 4.00% 4.00%

20.10.2015 6.50% 10.80% 06.09.2017 4.20%

25.07.2017 5.60% 5.60% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

21.10.2014 12.99%

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 5y 2017 1.906% 1.930% 1.906%

Serbia 5y 2018 2.401% 2.403% 1.067%

Serbia 7y 2020 2.685% 2.653% 1.231%

Serbia 10y 2021 2.975% 2.969% 2.975%

Serbia 20y 2024 6.317% 6.301%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

No scheduled auctions for today

Serbia Credit rating

2 years 5 years

3 years 10 years

5 years 15 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

110

160

210

260

310

360bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

TGAS 12,499 2,762,279 0.07% 4.14% 1.07 24.63 4.23

MTLC 1,920 768,000 -0.36% 1.05% 1.30 16.25 7.98

NIIS 675 752,625 -0.30% 1.05% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

ALFA 36,000 720,000 1.98% 1.98% 0.87 7.44 12.25

JESV 5,400 199,800 -1.26% 4.85% 0.74 5.60 11.62

ENHL 1,201 168,140 -3.15% -1.48% 1.56 316.51 0.53

PARP 1,200 72,000 -0.08% -0.08% 0.60 #N/A N/A -21.60

AERO 1,351 55,391 -0.52% -0.52% 1.86 13.55 14.52

KMBN 1,925 38,500 -0.52% -0.52% 0.47 7.77 6.61

SNCE 3,500 35,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 #N/A N/A -7.89

CCNB 10,300 20,600 0.98% -0.96% 0.40 #N/A N/A -5.68

RUDO 149 19,370 0.00% 0.00% 0.41 #N/A N/A -5.68

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

1.60%

0.98%

0.15%

-0.24%

0.07%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20


sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg


dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

Belex 15 728.86 731.83 -0.41% 1.60%

Belex line 1,627.22 1,630.61 -0.21% 3.68%

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,79 12,77

Turnover 248,911,669 RSD 7,559,485 RSD 3192.71%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

2,091,071 € 63,463 € 3194.95%

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 12,957,188,342 Din.

METALAC AD GORNJI MILANOVAC 3,916,800,000 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 110,065,770,000 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

PARACINKA AD PARACIN 174,963,600 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 46,324,911,850 Din.

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA 32,374,565,300 Din.

ALFA PLAM AD VRANJE 6,293,232,000 Din.

JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD 1,645,482,600 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO 13,128,481,692 Din.

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

SUNCE AD SOMBOR 501,021,500 Din.

HALK BANK AD BEOGRAD 1,874,414,600 Din.

RUDO AD BEOGRAD 99,241,599 Din.

Crobex Hrvatska 1,825.28 1,796.61 -8.50%

SBITOP Slovenija 806.60 798.81 12.40%

SOFIX Bugarska 670.33 669.32 14.31%

BET Rumunija 7,977.03 7,995.97 12.59%

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 462.47 462.14 11.27%

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

500

550

600

650

700

750

800 Belex 15

-3.15%

-1.26% -0.52% -0.52% -0.36% -0.30%

0.00% 0.00% 0.07%

1.98%

ENHL JESV KMBN AERO MTLC NIIS SJPT FITO TGAS ALFA

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p



nasdaq dax



nikkei dj stoxx





Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Dušan Mojsilović 201-3613 Biljana Radosavljević [email protected] [email protected]

Darko Karanović 201-3624 Vitomir Marić 201-1315Boban Todorović 201-3627 Olivera Glišić 201-1314Dragan Ignja 201-3626 [email protected]

[email protected]

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

S&P 500 US 2,506.65 2,503.87 0.11% 11.96%

Dow Jones Industrial US 22,370.80 22,331.35 0.18% 13.20%

DAX Germany 12,561.79 12,559.39 0.02% 9.41%

NASDAQ US 6,461.32 6,454.64 0.10% 20.03%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 382.12 381.95 0.04% 5.73%

FTSE UK 7,275.25 7,253.28 0.30% 1.85%

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing Custody

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 20,299.38 19,909.50 1.96% 6.20%

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000Dow Jones Industrial

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

S&P 500

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600NASDAQ Composite

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420DJ Stoxx 600

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000DAX

35

40

45

50

55

60Cena nafte Brent (USD/bbl)

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400Zlato

\

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Vix Index

4

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daily report - banca intesa beograd · oil rose on signs the pace of u.s. stockpile gains is...

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