RISK LEVEL SUMMARY0 = Lowest risk 5 = Neutral 10 = Highest risk

Market Risk Reason

Stocks Short-term 8 Optimism remains high as stocks shrug off any worries

Stocks Intermediate-term 5 Sentiment is still pessimistic, but with a negative price structure

Bonds 5 Below-average sentiment and negative price action suggests neutral risk at best

Gold 4 Following extremes in pessimism, signs of a potential false breakdown

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (Chart)

Thursday, October 8, 2015

CONTENT

Overview (Page 1,2)

Research (Page 3,4)

Stocks Short-term (Page 5)

Stocks Int-term (Page 6,7)

Risk Factors (Page 8)

Stock Breakdown (Page 9,10)

Other Markets (Page 11,12)

Commodity Ranks (Page 13)

Portfolio (Page 14,15)

Disclosures (Page 16)

HEADLINES

The S&P 500 is back in an intermediate-term uptrend. At least that would be the contention of

those using the 50-day average, which the S&P just rose above for the first time since mid-August.

When it has crossed above the average after falling into a correction, buyers have tended to keep

pushing it higher at least for the next month (see page 3).

Thursday's rally triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust. Kind of. Depending on the data vendor

(using our historical data, it did not trigger). This is based on a signal from the late, great Marty

Zweig that suggested a buy when the 10-day Up Issues on the NYSE goes from below 40% to

above 61.5% within 10 days. Our data doesn't show either extreme being met, though were close.

For those whose data it did trigger, we show all instances on the next page. Because of structural

changes in the market, breadth is more volatile than it has ever been before, making it easier for

these signals to trigger. Even so, they have been consistent precursors to more gains across all

time frames other than the very short-term (see page 2).

62%

41%

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

10/10/14 1/10/15 4/10/15 7/10/15

Smart Money Dumb Money S&P 500

Sundial Capital Research

12527 Central Avenue NE

Suite 165

Blaine, MN 55449

Jason Goepfert

President

jason@sentimentrader.com

DAILY SENTIMENT REPORT

S U N D I A LCAPITAL RESEARCH

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 1 of 16

Signals 1 Day 1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year

(1940-2015) Later Later Later Later Later Later Later

1945-02-02 0.4% 1.2% 2.7% 5.3% 7.0% 9.6% 24.9%

1945-04-07 (0.2%) 2.6% 4.8% 7.4% 10.4% 15.4% 23.9%

1946-12-09 0.0% (0.5%) 0.8% (0.1%) 1.0% (4.3%) 0.1%

1947-01-28 1.2% 2.1% 4.2% 1.3% (8.5%) 0.9% (1.4%)

1947-05-29 (1.0%) 0.3% 2.6% 5.3% 5.3% 6.6% 9.2%

1954-09-15 0.5% 2.3% 4.5% 1.9% 10.5% 15.0% 43.8%

1962-07-10 0.9% (0.7%) (0.7%) 0.5% (0.2%) 12.9% 22.2%

1962-11-07 (0.7%) 2.5% 3.0% 7.4% 12.7% 19.8% 24.4%

1970-07-20 (1.0%) (0.2%) 0.3% (2.0%) 8.3% 20.1% 27.2%

1971-12-07 0.1% 0.8% 4.8% 6.9% 12.4% 11.7% 21.4%

1973-09-06 (0.4%) (1.7%) 0.7% 4.5% (12.4%) (7.8%) (32.6%)

1974-10-14 (1.8%) 1.0% (3.6%) 1.3% (1.5%) 18.6% 23.0%

1974-10-17 1.6% (1.3%) 4.4% 1.0% (0.3%) 21.3% 25.6%

1980-04-11 (0.9%) (3.1%) 0.6% 1.0% 13.5% 26.3% 29.6%

1981-10-09 (0.2%) (1.9%) (1.5%) 1.5% (3.8%) (4.5%) 7.9%

1982-08-23 (0.7%) 1.3% 5.7% 6.8% 18.0% 27.5% 41.2%

1984-08-06 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0% 3.0% 10.9% 17.2%

1990-05-14 (0.1%) 0.9% (0.0%) 2.9% (4.5%) (11.6%) 6.2%

1998-10-22 (0.7%) 0.7% 3.7% 7.9% 14.4% 26.1% 20.7%

2008-12-05 3.8% 0.4% 1.1% 3.5% (17.9%) 7.6% 25.9%

2009-03-19 (2.0%) 6.2% 3.4% 6.2% 17.1% 35.9% 47.9%

2009-11-16 0.1% (0.3%) (1.2%) (0.0%) (0.2%) 0.5% 6.2%

2010-07-20 (1.3%) 2.8% 3.9% 1.0% 9.3% 19.5% 22.5%

2012-11-29 0.0% (0.1%) 0.9% 0.7% 7.7% 15.9% 27.5%

2013-07-09 0.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.4% 11.2% 19.4%

2014-08-19 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 5.8% 4.9%

Mean (0.1%) 0.8% 1.9% 3.0% 4.1% 12.0% 18.8%

Median (0.1%) 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% 4.2% 12.3% 22.3%

All Days 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 2.3% 4.5% 9.0%

# Up / Down 12 / 13 17 / 9 21 / 5 23 / 3 17 / 9 22 / 4 24 / 2

Relevance 39% 90% 100% 82% 71% 100% 100%

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research, www.sentimenTrader.com. Relevance > 95% suggests statistical significance

5

50

500

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

S&P 500 Log scale

Zweig Breadth Thrusts

S&P 500 Performance After Zweig Breadth Thrusts

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 2 of 16

RESEARCH

1957-03-27

1960-03-24

1965-08-02

1966-07-06

1968-04-01

1969-08-21

1971-12-02

1974-01-23

1977-11-10

1980-04-29

1981-10-30

1984-03-28

1990-11-05

1994-05-18

2000-12-11

2008-03-24

2010-07-14

2011-10-10

2015-10-08

Mean

Median

All Days

# Up / Down

Relevance

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research, www.sentimenTrader.com. Relevance > 95% suggests statistical significance

15

150

1500

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

S&P 500 with 50-day moving average

S&P 500 Reclaims Its 50-Day Average, Resuming Uptrend

The S&P 500 is finally back to an

intermediate-term uptrend.

"Uptrend" is a subjective, but one metric

that a surprisingly large number of

market-watchers use is the 50-day

moving average. If stocks are above it,

then the trend is positive.

Its usefulness as an intermediate-term

trend filter is questionable, but what

matters for the moment is that a lot of

people watch it. And when a lot of

people are watching the same thing,

then it can have self-fulfilling properties,

at least for a little while.

What's all the more notable about

Thursday's new trend is that it's coming

on the heels of what had been a nine-

month low barely 30 days ago.

Let's go back to 1929 and look for every

time that the S&P had set a nine-month

low within the past two months, then

finally climbed back above its 50-day

average for the first time. Multiple

instances close in time to each other are

excluded - we only want the first

occurrence - and we excluded ones that

occurred after huge declines of more

than -20%.

After the two times this occurred in the

current bull market, the S&P continued

to rally for another two weeks or so,

then fell into a couple weeks of pullback

before resuming the uptrend.

That was a fairly consistent pattern. A

month after all occurrences, the S&P

showed a positive return 18 out of 26

times, with an average return twice the

average.

In the table, we also show signals that

failed, in this case simply meaning that

the S&P set a new low within two

months following its poke above the 50-

day average.

Of the 26 precedents, 18 of them did not

see a new low within two months

(though some failed after two months

went by).

There was a moderate positive

correlation (+0.41) to the S&P's return

after two weeks and its return after one

year. This suggests that if buyers

showed enough oomph to power stocks

higher for a couple of weeks after

reclaiming the 50-day average, then it

boded well for the long-term as well.

Overall this has been a modest positive

going forward, but not strong enough to

be a major factor.

S&P 500 Log scale

Source: S&P

S&P closed at a 9-month low within 2 months ago

The decline was less than -20% from a high

S&P rose above its 50-day avg for the first time

SENTIMENTRADER

See zoomed-in

chart below

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 3 of 16

RESEARCH

Signals New Low In 1 Day 1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year

(1929-2015) Next 2 Months? Later Later Later Later Later Later Later

1935-04-05 No 0.5% 0.8% 4.2% 5.1% 15.6% 29.4% 63.7%

1937-07-06 No 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 3.2% (12.8%) (31.5%) (36.0%)

1941-03-18 Yes (0.6%) (1.5%) (1.3%) (4.7%) (7.1%) (0.4%) (11.4%)

1943-12-11 No (0.3%) 0.3% 0.7% 3.0% 3.2% 4.2% 12.9%

1947-05-03 Yes 0.1% (1.4%) (4.9%) (3.4%) 5.1% 5.8% (0.9%)

1948-03-19 No 2.5% 3.0% 5.3% 6.7% 15.9% 13.4% 3.2%

1949-07-06 No 0.0% 1.8% 2.9% 4.2% 7.4% 13.8% 30.9%

1953-07-07 Yes (0.0%) (1.8%) (1.2%) 0.7% (4.2%) 1.7% 23.0%

1957-03-27 No 0.2% 1.0% 1.6% 3.2% 6.8% (2.5%) (4.1%)

1960-03-24 No 0.0% (1.1%) 0.9% (2.0%) 2.9% (2.9%) 15.1%

1965-08-02 No 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 2.0% 8.2% 8.7% (3.6%)

1966-07-06 Yes 0.4% (0.9%) (0.8%) (3.6%) (13.7%) (6.3%) 4.9%

1968-04-01 No 0.2% 2.7% 4.5% 6.6% 10.5% 12.3% 13.4%

1969-08-21 No 0.6% (0.5%) (1.2%) 0.3% 0.6% (8.0%) (19.3%)

1971-12-02 No 1.3% 1.2% 2.8% 6.1% 12.0% 14.5% 21.7%

1974-01-23 Yes (0.3%) (0.0%) (4.2%) (1.7%) (7.0%) (12.4%) (26.1%)

1977-11-10 Yes 1.3% 0.5% 1.9% (1.1%) (4.9%) 3.5% (0.3%)

1980-04-29 No 0.4% 0.4% (1.0%) 4.2% 15.6% 20.8% 25.7%

1981-10-30 No 1.9% 0.6% 1.1% 3.5% (3.4%) (4.2%) 9.7%

1984-03-28 Yes (0.2%) (1.5%) (2.5%) 0.0% (5.2%) 4.0% 12.3%

1990-11-05 No (0.9%) 1.6% 0.8% 4.9% 11.7% 19.9% 24.1%

1994-05-18 No 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.2%

2000-12-11 Yes (0.7%) (4.2%) (5.4%) (3.9%) (15.5%) (10.0%) (17.8%)

2008-03-24 No 0.2% (2.0%) 1.5% 1.9% (2.4%) (7.0%) (39.0%)

2010-07-14 No 0.1% (2.3%) 1.7% (1.1%) 6.8% 16.4% 20.3%

2011-10-10 No 0.1% 0.5% 3.6% 6.8% 8.1% 14.5% 20.6%

2015-10-08 - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 3.9% 6.1%

Median 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.8% 11.0%

All Days 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 4.3% 8.1%

# Up / Down 18 / 8 17 / 7 15 / 11 17 / 9 18 / 8 16 / 10 16 / 10 16 / 10

Relevance 50% 35% 65% 88% 38% 15% 48%

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research, www.sentimenTrader.com. Relevance > 95% suggests statistical significance

S&P 500 Performance After Reclaiming 50-Day Average After A Correction

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 4 of 16

RESEARCH

8Risk Level:

(Chart)

1,850.00

1,900.00

1,950.00

2,000.00

2,050.00

2,100.00

2,150.00

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

As noted in the Research section on Wednesday, stocks have failed to respond to the high short-term

risk level in recent days. That doesn't say much about the short-term going forward, but longer-term it's

a good sign. The Optimism Index and the risk level remain high, not giving any kind of a break for those

looking for a lower-risk way to enter what may be a positive longer-term market.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15

Breakdown

Lower low

Lower highS&P 500: NeutralBreakdown from rounded top, short-term reversals, failed at 50%

retracement of the August decline. We seeing initial signs of the first

higher low and higher high. More short-term follow-through to the

upside would be an excellent longer-term sign and we're seeing some

signs of that now.

Optimism Index: BearishOptimism has been high for the past week, and while it has not resulted

in any price weakness (a good longer-term sign), it keeps adding to the

risk for the short-term. We rarely see such prolonged short-term

optimism without pulling back for more than a day.

Down Pressure: BearishThe past few days have seen little selling pressure, pushing this gauge

to one of its most extreme levels in months. It hasn't dipped much, as

buying pressure has been persistent.

% Stocks > 10-Day Avg: BearishAn overwhelming number of stocks are above their short-term

averages, giving off one of the most-stretched readings in years. It's

extremely rare to see this hang above 90% with no pullback in stocks.

Equity P/C Ratio: Bullish

Put activity was heavy on Wednesday, which is unusual given

the positive day for stocks. There still has been no big jump in

call activity from traders, a good sign.

Inverse ETF Volume: BullishHedging activity is slowly starting to ease, but remains near extreme

levels, despite the recovery in stocks in recent weeks.

Higher low

Higher high

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RESEARCH

Risk Level:5

(Chart)

1,850.00

1,900.00

1,950.00

2,000.00

2,050.00

2,100.00

2,150.00

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

In the August 24 and 25 reports we looked at a lot of extremes, and that continued over the next

week or so. Bottom line, the kind of panic seen then usually results in months of higher prices, then a

test of the low. We're seeing that now, in late September. So far, everything we're seeing is in line with

past successful test, with little correlation to failed bear market rallies. If that's indeed the case, then

we shouldn't see the August low violated for long or by much.

Breakdown

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15

S&P 500: NeutralBreakdown from rounded top. Stocks are making an initial attempt to put

in a successful test of the August mini-panic low by making a higher high

above the mid-September peak. This would be classic bottoming action

and would be excellent confirmation if we see more upside follow-

through in the coming days.

Optimism Index: BullishBelow 50, modestly extreme but off the worst levels from the past three

weeks.

Stock/Bond Ratio: NeutralIn the August panic, the ratio between the two went to a historic spread,

usually leading to 1-3 month upside. On Sep 28 it moved back to an

extreme under-valuation for stocks and has since moved to neutral

territory.

% Stocks > 50-Day Avg: NeutralDespite weeks of recovery, stocks had a hard time getting above their 50-

day averages. That has changed in recent days and this indicator is sitting

in neutral territory.

Equity P/C Ratio Detrended: BullishOptions actiivty has been skewed to the put side, which remains a positive

for stocks. Despite a (so far) successful test of the August low and several

large up days, put activity has been active and we're not seeing any signs

of traders speculating on a rally in the options market.

SPY Liquidity Premium: NeutralThere was a huge rush to ETFs in August, a sign of deep panic, which has

since subsided. Because of that extreme, it's going to be easier to see the

opposite extreme, and we're heading there quickly.

Successful test (so far) of

the August panic. Will look

for a higher high now.

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RESEARCH

Typical Sentiment Cycle

Maximum

Optimism

Last Gasp 1

Test

Lower Low

(3%-5% decline)

Maximum

PessimismTest 2

Explosive Rally 3

Belief-

Building

Phase

Belief-

Building

Phase

* The Typical Sentiment Cycle is a real bull-to-bear phase from the S&P 500 in 1966. It displayed the classic price phases that many cycles

exhibit. The WE ARE HERE box is a partially subjective judgment based on sentiment conditions, price behavior and fundamental ratios. It

should proceed forward the majority of the time, but may skip backward as new information becomes known. This is only a rough

approximation.

The case against using something like this is that every cycle is different. No two markets ever look exactly the same, or exactly like this.

Sometimes, like the mid-1990s, the middle phase just keeps going and going and going. More typically, stocks spend 1-3 months in each

phase, though there is wide variation in that, from weeks to years.

Note that "maximum optimism" and "maximum pessimism" normally occur before a market peak and market trough, respectively. It's

rare for bull phases to end when optimism is at its highest point. The same goes for bear phases, but that is less consistent - sometimes a

bear will end in panic and both price and sentiment will bottom at the same time.

BULL PHASE BEAR PHASE BULL PHASE

1 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures; "This time is different" articles; arrogance from bullish commentators; proliferation

of new types of funds; closing of long-time funds that are not fully invested.

2 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures, doomsday prophesies on mainstream media, stocking up of staples among

consumers, heavy trading activity, ridicule of "knife catching" buyers.

3 Watch to watch for: Explosive price gains over 2-3 day periods; massive thrusts in market breadth; "Just another bear market rally"

articles; minimal pullbacks after short-term overbought readings

BULL MARKET

CORRECTION

Fear-Building Phase

(More than 5% decline)

BEAR MARKET

CORRECTION

We are here *

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RESEARCH

Short-Term Risk Factors

Factor Skew % Weight

Optix is the highest in months Bearish 80%

Overbought readings in many short-term guides Bearish 20%

Intermediate-Term Risk Factors

Factors Skew % Weight

Price and volatility extremes Bullish 20%

Up Volume surge Bullish 15%

Panic among indicators Bullish 10%

Funds are holding too little cash Bearish 8%

Split market (highs & lows) Bearish 6%

Hedgers nearly net long Bullish 5%

Dividend bond issues surge Bearish 5%

Unprofitable IPOs at all-time high Bearish 5%

Spread b/ween indicators Bearish 5%

Cash Is Not In Demand Bearish 5%

Divergence with high yield bonds Bearish 3%

Billion-dollar stock splits Bearish 3%

Stock / Bond Ratio over-valuation Bearish 3%

Trend persistence nears high Bearish 3%

Art market surge Bearish 2%

The factors listed below are the primary considerations for the short-term and intermediate-term risk levels for stocks. These

are based primarily on the Optimism Indexes and price structure, but also include other factors like recent studies, patterns

and external research.

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 8 of 16

RESEARCH

Indicators Showing Excess Pessimism (Chart) Indicators Showing Excess Optimism (Chart)

Ordered from most to least pessimistic Ordered from most to least optimistic

AIM Model Short-Term Optix

Optix Optix Insider Insights Buy/Sell Ratio Retail Money Market

Volatility Volatility LOBO PutCall Ratio OEX PutCall Open Interest

Options Options Odd Lot Shorts Net Available Cash  - NYSE

Pressure Breadth Rydex Bearish Flow Equity / Money Market Ratio

Oscillator Surveys ROBO PutCall Ratio SKEW Index

TICK C.O.T. Fidelity Funds Breadth Mutual Fund Cash %

Shorts Dumb Money Confidence Price Oscillator - SPX

Cash Intermediate-Term Optix New High / New Low - NYSE

Insiders Penny Stock Share Volume Down Pressure - SPX

Rydex Smart - Dumb Spread Up Volume - NYSE

Equity Hedging Index Up Issues - NYSE

Smart Money Confidence Rydex Ratio

Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj

Equity PutCall

Penny Stock Dollar Volume

Risk Appetite Index

% Showing Excess Pessimism

Rydex Sectors W/Assets > 50-Day

VIX Transform

Short-term Intermediate-term

Breakdown Of Indicators At ExtremesIndicator Groups

Broad Market

20%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

% Of Indicators At An Extreme

40

80

41

68

26

9

8

49

0

32

78

80

59

91

89

81

Excess

Optimism

Excess

Pessimism

Excess

Optimism

Excess

Pessimism

Copyright © 2015 sentimenTrader.com

S&P 500

% Showing

Excess Optimism

% Showing

Excess Pessimism

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RESEARCH

Sector, Industry and Stock Ranks

33

38

44

46

48

50

50

52

52

53

54

55

57

57

58

59

60

61

64

65

72

Health Care

Financials

Retail

Metals & Mining

Biotechnology

Volatility

Semiconductors

Oil & Gas

Homebuilders

Energy

Consumer Discretionary

Oil Services

Technology

REITs

Real Estate

Gold Miners

Consumer Products

Industrials

Utilities

Junior Gold Miners

Basic Materials

Sectors Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

28

38

41

41

43

44

45

45

45

45

57

57

57

57

57

58

59

62

63

65

Toys/Games/Hobbies

Holding Companies-Divers

Machinery-Constr&Mining

Home Builders

Retail

Apparel

Savings&Loans

Healthcare-Services

Leisure Time

Biotechnology

Oil&Gas

Gas

Auto Manufacturers

Metal Fabricate/Hardware

Computers

Agriculture

Advertising

Pipelines

Office Furnishings

Storage/Warehousing

Industries Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

8

8

14

15

15

15

16

16

16

16

82

82

82

83

84

84

85

85

86

86

Fred'S Inc-A

Hanger Inc

Gulfmark Offshor

Ebix Inc

Fossil Group Inc

Impax Labs Inc

Abercrombie & Fi

Ethan Allen

Werner Ent

Wausau Paper Cor

Devon Energy Co

Cognizant Tech-A

Cohu Inc

Kulicke & Soffa

American Tower C

Agree Realty

Prologis Inc

Methode Elec

Nisource Inc

Emc Corp/Ma

Stocks Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

4

13

17

23

32

38

39

39

41

44

53

62

68

72

73

Health Care

Gold Bugs

Biotechnology

Housing

Basic Materials

Financials

Russell 2000

Nasdaq 100

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials

S&P 500

Technology

Consumer Staples

Utilities

Energy

% O

f C

om

po

ne

nts

> 5

0-D

ay

Ave

rag

e

Sectors Ranked By

Oversold - Overbought Breadth -127

-127

-105

-89

-78

-69

-32

-28

0

10

13

41

62

77

101

139

167

185

191

261

300

Technology

Biotechnology

Energy

Retail

Gold Miners

Financials

Health Care

Utilities

Junior Gold Miners

Homebuilders

Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Consumer Products

Basic Materials

Oil Services

Volatility

Semiconductors

Industrials

REITs

Consumer Discretionary

Oil & Gas

Sectors Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Money Flow

Past Week, Millions $

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 10 of 16

RESEARCH

BONDS (TLT) Risk Level: 5

GOLD (GLD) Risk Level: 4

...but Optimism is holding below 50 after

bouncing from extreme pessimism, generally a

negative setup

Report - Optimism

getting frothy

Optimism was down near the lowest levels in the past

decade. Looking for a potential "false breakdown" and

price reversal above previous lows

Report - Gold stocks

completing puke phase

iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT)

Bonds Optimism Index

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Gold Optimism Index

Excess optimism

Excess pessimism

Excess optimism

Excess pessimism

Trend is modestly positive...

Preliminary evidence that the trend is turning higher, and

gold finally poked above its prior lows, but can't hold

above so far.

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 11 of 16

RESEARCH

AG (DBA) Risk Level: 5

CRUDE OIL (USO) Risk Level: 5

Optimsim is low enough to look for a

sustained rebound but so far prices are

not reacting enough for short speculators

to begin covering

Report - Smart money

bets on ag

Report - Grains have a

big week

Optimism is low enough to look for a

sustained rebound. Prices are

showing an initial reaction, but need

to get about previous low to trigger

more short-covering.

Report - Volatility nears

previous bottoms

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)

United States Oil Fund LP (USO)

Agriculture Optimism Index

Oil Optimism Index

Excess optimism

Excess pessimism

Excess optimism

Excess pessimism

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 12 of 16

RESEARCH

Commodity, Currency, Bond and Country Ranks

17

24

34

37

42

50

57

Aussie Dollar

Canadian Dollar

Swiss Franc

British Pound

Euro

Japanese Yen

U.S. Dollar

Currencies Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

44

44

50

57

59

64

66

66

68

78

BND Optix

5 Year

2 Year

TLT Optix

30 Year

HYG Optix

10 Year

JNK Optix

LQD Optix

Eurodollar

Bonds Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

18

20

21

22

24

26

28

29

29

31

32

34

36

39

43

45

45

49

59

Platinum

Cattle

Orange Juice

Lumber

Coffee

Natural Gas

Cotton

Heating Oil

Gold

Crude Oil

Soybeans

Copper

Unleaded Gas

Wheat

Corn

Sugar

Silver

Hogs

Cocoa

Commodities Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

39

43

44

56

59

59

60

64

64

65

66

68

70

72

73

Japan

China

Germany

United States

UK

India

Brazil

Russia

France

Canada

Emerging Markets

Mexico

Spain

Australia

Italy

Countries Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Optimism Index

-340

-22

-17

-9

-2

0

0

0

0

5

9

19

81

101

Germany

Japan

UK

Spain

India

Emerging Markets

Brazil

China

France

Canada

Italy

Australia

Mexico

Russia

Countries Ranked By

Lowest - Highest Money Flow Past Week, Millions $

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 13 of 16

RESEARCH

How I am positioned:

Current Target Over/Under Last Increase/

Market Ticker Allocation Allocation Weight Change Decrease

STOCKS

US Broad Market VTI 4.8% 20.0% (15.2%) 2015-09-02 Increase

Emerging Markets VWO 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 2015-08-24 Increase

International Stocks VEU 19.9% 20.0% (0.1%) 2015-03-20 Decrease

45.1% 60.0% (14.9%)

BONDS

Treasury Bonds TLT 0.0% 10.0% (10.0%) 2015-08-24 Decrease

0.0% 10.0% (10.0%)

COMMODITIES

Oil USL 3.2% 3.3% (0.1%) 2015-08-19 Decrease

Agriculture DBA 7.1% 3.3% 3.8% 2015-09-23 Decrease

Precious Metals CEF 3.9% 3.3% 0.6% 2015-09-02 Decrease

14.2% 9.9% 4.3%

CASH / SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES

Cash CASH 40.6% 10.0% 30.6%

40.6% 20.0% 20.6%

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 14 of 16

RESEARCH

Position Changes: Blue line = Fund as % of total portfolio

Change Increase /

Market Ticker Date Decrease Rationale

Ag - Grains JJG 2015-09-23 Decrease Simplifying the portfolio, will likely add to DBA on better evidence of trend chng

Ag - Grains JJG 2015-09-14 Increase Potential for false breakdown after extreme pessimism

US Broad Market VTI 2015-09-02 Increase Gradual addition based on panic readings and testing of the low

Ag - Grains JJG 2015-09-02 Decrease Cannot rally whatsoever, hedgers not adding to positions aggressively enuf

Gold stocks GDXJ 2015-09-02 Decrease Not acting well, should have responded better to extreme shorts, panic

Emerging markets EEM 2015-08-31 Decrease Just a trade, short-term bounce prospects highly uncertain

Short volatility SVXY 2015-08-25 Decrease Rest of position hit trailing stop

Short volatility SVXY 2015-08-24 Increase Large position at open, reduced into gap fill, trailing stop on rest

Emerging markets DREGX 2015-08-24 Increase Long-term position, upping to neutral weight

Gold stocks CEF 2015-08-24 Decrease Not acting well in spite of what should be better price activity

Bonds BND 2015-08-24 Decrease Doing okay but optimism now extreme and long-term outlook negative

Emerging markets EEM 2015-08-21 Increase High speculative…crash-type behavior usually leading to short-term bounce

Gold stocks GDXJ 2015-08-21 Decrease Possible resistance, not acting as well as it should

Gold CEF 2015-08-21 Decrease Possible resistance, not acting as well as it should

Energy XLE 2015-08-19 Decrease No ability to follow through…watching but too early

Energy XOP 2015-08-19 Decrease No ability to follow through…watching but too early

Energy XLE 2015-08-18 Increase Heavy put activity, very early indication of possible bottoming activity

Energy XOP 2015-08-18 Increase Heavy put activity, very early indication of possible bottoming activity

Emerging markets DREGX 2015-08-18 Increase Extreme pessimism

Gold CEF 2015-08-03 Increase Historic discount to NAV, capitulatory price action, near-record low optimism

Stocks VTI 2015-07-28 Decrease Optimism rebounds, was meant for short-term trade

85

95

105

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

US Stocks

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

Emerging Market Stocks

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

International Stocks

90

110

130

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

US Bond Market

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

Oil

18

23

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

Agriculture

8

10

12

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15

Precious Metals

Sto

ck

sB

on

ds

Baseline

Co

mm

od

itie

s

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 15 of 16

RESEARCH

Risk 1 Day 3 Days 1 Wk 2 Wks 1 Mo 3 Mos 6 Mos 1 Yr 1 Day 3 Days 1 Wk 2 Wks 1 Mo 3 Mos 6 Mos 1 Yr

Level Metric Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later Later

1 Avg Return 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.9% 5.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.6% 2.3% 3.4% 7.9% 11.0%

% Positive 52% 48% 57% 48% 48% 67% 86% 95% 53% 63% 63% 74% 78% 77% 81% 81%

2 Avg Return 0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 3.4% 4.6% 7.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 2.1% 1.8% 3.0% 4.8%

% Positive 61% 70% 68% 59% 76% 69% 72% 68% 54% 61% 60% 66% 75% 69% 61% 68%

3 Avg Return 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.2%

% Positive 53% 61% 53% 63% 67% 59% 59% 69% 55% 57% 58% 59% 67% 73% 65% 65%

4 Avg Return 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 2.8% 5.6%

% Positive 53% 58% 56% 53% 65% 63% 59% 67% 56% 53% 54% 53% 60% 67% 64% 66%

5 Avg Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% -0.5% -0.3% 0.4% 1.6%

% Positive 53% 54% 53% 54% 56% 57% 60% 64% 53% 55% 52% 53% 53% 57% 62% 60%

6 Avg Return 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 4.5%

% Positive 52% 52% 54% 57% 59% 62% 69% 71% 52% 53% 53% 54% 57% 49% 68% 71%

7 Avg Return 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 2.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 2.6%

% Positive 56% 57% 53% 57% 62% 63% 69% 74% 54% 56% 56% 52% 56% 57% 65% 70%

8 Avg Return 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 2.4% 4.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.7% 3.1% 7.1%

% Positive 52% 54% 57% 63% 63% 73% 78% 86% 54% 54% 56% 60% 64% 68% 70% 86%

9 Avg Return -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 8.1% 11.8% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7%

% Positive 42% 51% 57% 64% 59% 66% 70% 79% 47% 47% 47% 49% 49% 53% 55% 55%

Short-Term Risk Level Intermediate-Term Risk Level

The data and analysis contained herein are provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Sundial Capital Research, Inc. (SCR), its employees,

or any third-party data provider, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any

publication published by SCR. No report shall be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any stock or security. This communication reflects our

opinions as of the date of this communication and will not necessarily be updated as views or information change. SCR and its respective

employees may have lpositions in the securities discussed herein and may purchase or sell such securities without notice. The information

contained herein is believed to be accurate to the best of our knowledge, and we make no guarantees that there will not be errors from

ourselves or third-party data providers. We make every effort to validate data integrity, but occassionally errors do occur and we subsequently

make an effort to disclose that to subscribers. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

The Correction Risk Level is a quick way to gauge what our indicators and studies are suggesting. The higher the risk, the more likely the market

is to decline. Another way to look at it is in terms of cash. If the Correction Risk Level is 0, then we would be more inclined to keep 0% of our

portfolio in cash (i.e. we would be fully invested). But if the Correction Risk Level is 10, then we would be more inclined to keep 100% of our

portfolio in cash (i.e. no exposure to stocks). We take the overriding trend of the market into account. If the indicators are showing excessive

amounts of bearish opinion, then the market is more likely to respond favorably to that if we're in a bull market, and the Risk Level would be

lower. But if we're in a bear market, then bearish sentiment extremes are less reliable, and the Risk Level would be higher. The default Risk Level

is 5, which is where it would be if there is no edge present among our indicators and studies.

We do not suggest using these Risk Levels in any kind of mechanical way. They are meant to help support any existing technical or fundamental

research you may be doing. When the Risk Level is very high, though, we do recommend backing off on long positions or possibly considering

short positions (especially during a bear market). For both time frames, a Risk Level below 3 can be considered "low risk" while a level above 7

can be considered "high risk". The more extreme the Risk Level, the more likely the market will respond in a timely manner. The most likely time

for these Risk Levels to fail is during a time of trend transition from a bull to bear market (or bear to bull). That is often good information in itself

- if the Risk Level is very high, for example, but prices continue to rise, then that is a heads-up that buyers are very interested, and we will likely

see even higher prices going forward.

The Portfolio is a real-money portfolio for Jason Goepfert. It is structured as an IRA, and is a supplementary account to other investments. The

purpose is not to "get rich". The account is meant as a store of savings, and not a trading vehicle to maximize gains. This is not meant as a

recommendation to buy or sell any security. It is by no means intended to represent an ideal or recommended portfolio for anyone other than

the author. It can change directions heavily depending on short-term volatility, and does not reflect a buy-and-hold 60/40 portfolio

recommended for most long-term investors. The purpose is to simply show "skin in the game". Changes in the Portfolio will be reflected the day

they are instituted, without notice. Positions taken are typically in highly liquid markets with a primary focus on ETFs and index options contracts.

During a runaway bull market in US stocks, it will under-perform; the intention is not to catch every single little wiggle, so the Portfolio could be

inactive for significant stretches of time. With many different indicators (some directly contradicting each other), and many markets, it's hard to

know where to focus. The Portfolio is a bottom-line, real-money way of showing where the author interprets risk/reward in the major markets,

and any special opportunities.

Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT 10/08/15, Page 16 of 16