dammed if you do, damned if you dont
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
5 JUNE 2008
PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLERNATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL
Dammed if You Do,Damned if You Don’t
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Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR
http://flood.firetree.net/
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Introduction
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How we got here…
“With a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward… after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues…” – Nathan Chase
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Some striking results…
David Newell
Gravel shortages 50+ years for China 65+ years for India
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Some striking results…
Vivien Chua
The first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!
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Background and Need6
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Coastal Development & Ports
Over half of world’s population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001)1
35% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.)2
7.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA)3
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Sea Level Rise – Fact or Fiction?
Model does not include “future dynamical changes in ice flow”
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Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Andrew
Natural Disasters9
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Cyclone Nargis10
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Project Overview11
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Project Overview
Analyze coastal protection design alternatives Quantify current/projected capacity of design &
construction industry Model the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and
disseminate information Compare capacity to what is needed
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Limited understanding of DCI capacity
No official statistics for US Natural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g.,
Hurricane Katrina/Rita) Difficulty in compiling global data Resources are allocated on a regional or national basis
e.g. cranes, dredges, steel
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How to Protect Ports
Define the protection strategy and scope e.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surface
Develop a “minimum reasonable design” for the scope Obtain cost data reflective of regional conditions Compare the design and scope to global data on
materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.
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Why ports?
Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easily High economic value, easy to measure Clear baseline of what will be protected Data availability Simplifying assumption (difficulties with
residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)
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Port Selection16
1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container
(one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)
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Methodology for Case Studies
Goal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regions
Overall procedure: Site identification Conceptual design alternatives evaluation Schematic design development Incorporation of results in overall project
Tools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element
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Current Status18
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Current Status
Port Characteristics
World’s most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth
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Current Status
GIS model “automatically” determines:
- Protection length
- Average protection height
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Current Status
Cost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe) RS Means UN Countrywatch Etc.
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Current Status
Coastal Protection Design tool Offshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance
dredging
Dike
Lock
Pump
PortOpen OceanDredge
River flooding
Silt
Wave overtopping, scour
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Long Beach Harbor a Case Study
“Manual” design10.5 miles long25m high
- Cost: $1693 million
-Time to construct:21.1 years
“Model” design10 miles long9m high
- Cost: $712 million
- Time to construct:9.7 years
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1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!!25
Sea level record at Golden Gate
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Areas at risk in San Francisco Bay
• GIS modeling
• 2D hydrodynamic modeling
1 meter sea level risehttp://flood.firetree.net
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Sacramento-San Joaquin delta
Golden Gate channel
Calibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)
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What if we do nothing?
• 2D hydrodynamic modeling
Flooding risks
Changes to circulation patterns
Deterioration of water quality
Disappearing habitats/ecosystems
Modifications to sediment distributions
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Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes
Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m
1 m sea level rise
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Action plan: Partial intrusion barrage at Golden Gate
Regulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the bay
Sea water entering bay as flood tide
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A tidal power barrage?
Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gate
QghP where ρ = density of sea water = 1000 kg/m3, Q = flow rate, g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.81 m2/s, h = tidal amplitude
In a neap-spring cycle,
Max Q = 5000 m3/s
Max h = 2 m
Max P = 1x108W
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Results
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Measuring our Results35
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Google Earth Demonstration
Netherlands
Stanford/S.F. Bay
San Pedro Bay (L.A.)
Port Characteristics
Port Polygons
4D Model
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Future Directions44
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Collaborations, Raising Awareness
New collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc. Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework
Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built Environment
Write journal articles Make GoogleEarth project data available
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Fall 2008 Undergrad/Grad Course
3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer science
Focus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework project Week 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands,
Japan, Hurricane Katrina) Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer
from industry) Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development) Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture) Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling) Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports)
Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai
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Acknowledgements
Fred Raichlen, California Institute of Technology Kyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Bob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc. Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney Imagineering Chris Holm, Walt Disney Co. Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea Grant Christian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied
Sciences Prior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan,
Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang
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Questions?
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