dan dorner, international energy agency
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2014
Dan DornerGlobal Energy Economics Directorate
Milan, 14 May 2015
© OECD/IEA 2014
The sub-Saharan context
GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development
Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its energy demand: half of this is biomass
Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to growth
Large energy resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas & coal, largely untouched in renewables
Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but two-thirds of energy investment since 2000 went to develop resources for export
© OECD/IEA 2014
Rich in resources
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
Hydro
WindOil
Oil
Oil
OilGas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Gas
Fossil fuels
Solar
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar
© OECD/IEA 2014
In sub-Saharan Africa, 620 million people – two-thirds of the population – live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50%
Less than 50%More than 50%
Share of population withaccess to electricity:
Rich in resources, but poor in supply
© OECD/IEA 2014
Power to shape the future
Installed power generation capacity by fuel in sub-Saharan Africa
Renewables account for almost half the growth in overall power supply, but fossil fuels are prominent in some countries
Coal45%
Gas, 14%
Oil, 17%
Nuclear, 2%
Hydro22%
Other renewables0%
2012 capacity: 90 GW
2040 capacity: 380 GW
Coal22%
Gas25%
Oil7%
Hydro24%
Solar12%
Nuclear2%
Bioenergy, windgeothermal
8%
© OECD/IEA 2014
Different paths to power across the continent
The power mix by sub-region reflects local resource endowments; well-functioning regional power pools help to unlock new projects, lower costs & improve reliability
100
200300
400
500
600
2000 2020 2040
West
TWh
30
60
90
120
150
2000 2020 2040
Central
TWh
50
100150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
East
TWh
CoalOilGasNuclear
HydroSolar PV
Otherrenewables
200
400
600
800
1 000
2000 2020 2040
Southern
TWh
© OECD/IEA 2014
Important role for renewables beyond the grid
Technology mix for mini-grids and off grids in sub-Saharan Africa, 2040
Renewables – led by solar and hydro – account for two-thirds of the electricity supplied by mini-grid & off-grid systems
35%
47%
12%4%
2%
Off-grid: 12 TWh
32%
37%
20%
8%3%
OilSolar PVHydroWindBioenergy
Mini-grid: 26 TWh
© OECD/IEA 2014
The most cost-effective way to expand electrification varies
Optimal split by grid type in Nigeria, given expected expansion of transmission lines
In Nigeria, higher population density and wider grid coverage favour on-grid supply; where grid extensions are not cost-effective, mini-grids tend to be preferred
Source: IEA in collaboration with the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, division of Energy Systems Analysis.
© OECD/IEA 2014
The most cost-effective way to expand electrification varies
Optimal split by grid type in Ethiopia, given expected expansion of transmission lines
The overall population density of Ethiopia is half that of Nigeria meaning that mini- and, especially, off-grid solutions play a much more prominent role
Source: IEA in collaboration with the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, division of Energy Systems Analysis.
© OECD/IEA 2014
A large step towards universal access, but still a long way to go
Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800Million
Population withelectricity access
Population withoutelectricity access
Nearly one billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million, primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040
© OECD/IEA 2014
Biomass for cooking
Largest populations relying on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking in sub-Saharan Africa by sub-region, 2012
Five countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Tanzania and Kenya – account for around half of the sub-Saharan population using solid biomass for cooking
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nig
eria
Gha
naN
iger
Côte
d'Iv
oire
DR
Cong
oCa
mer
oon
Chad
CAR
Ethi
opia
Keny
aU
gand
aSu
dan
Tanz
ania
Moz
ambi
que
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Million WestRuralUrban
CentralRuralUrban
EastRuralUrban
SouthernRuralUrban
© OECD/IEA 2014
How much biomass is being consumed?
Fuelwood consumption per capita per day in selected countries
Around 80% of household energy use is for cooking, compared with 5% in the OECD; estimates of fuelwood consumption differ markedly within and across countries
Sources: Department of Energy at the Politecnico di Milano; IEA analysis.
1
2
3
4
5
BotswanaCameroon
EritreaEthiopia
GhanaKenya
MalawiMali
NigeriaSouth Africa
Zimbabwe
kg per day per capita
Median
Maximum
Minimum
© OECD/IEA 2014
Biomass continues to dominate energy demand for cooking
Primary fuel/technology used by household for cooking in sub-Saharan Africain the New Policies Scenario
In urban areas, access to clean cooking facilities is mainly by fuel switching, while in rural areas it is mainly via improved biomass cookstoves
UrbanElectricity
LPG, Gas
Kerosene
Traditionalstoves
Improvedcookstoves
Otherrenewables
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rural
West
Central
East
Southern20122040
20122040
20122040
20122040
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
© OECD/IEA 2014
How could energy make the 21st century an African century?
Energy could do more to act as an engine of inclusive economic & social development
An African Century Case assesses the impact of faster movement in three key areas:
An upgraded power sector; reducing power outages by half & achieving universal access in urban areas
Deeper regional co-operation; expanding markets & unlocking a greater share of the continent’s hydropower potential
Better management of resources & revenues; more efficiency & transparency in financing essential infrastructure
© OECD/IEA 2014
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mill
ion
peop
leWithout access
to electricity
Energy can build a path to prosperity
Outcomes in the African Century Case, 2040
By increasing the coverage & reliability of energy supply, the African Century Case unlocks an extra decade’s worth of growth in per-capita incomes by 2040
Main Scenario
African CenturyCase
1
2
3
4
5
Thou
sand
dol
lars
(201
3, M
ER)
GDP per capita
Gig
awatt
s
Renewables-based power generation capacity
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
© OECD/IEA 2014
Conclusions
Energy is a cornerstone of sub-Saharan strategies for poverty reduction & economic growth
Improvements in sector governance are needed to bring in new energy investors & kick-start development
The shortest route to power is a combination of regional & national level grid projects & mini-off grid projects
Renewables are central to the regions energy outlook, while more efficient & sustainable use of biomass will create a healthier domestic energy balance
Concerted action to improve the functioning of the energy sector is essential if the 21st century is to become an African century
