danube floodrisk i
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This is the first part of a work describing the Hazard Mapping Guidelines written for the Danube Flood Risk ProjectTRANSCRIPT
Experiences in the definition of guidelines for Hazard Mapping in Trentino
Riccardo Rigon
Segan
tin
i -
Mez
zogio
rno s
ull
e A
lpi
Danube FloodRisk Project, Trento, October 4, 2011
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
2
Outline
•What is a guide line ?
•Hazard and Risk
•Liquid and solid hazards
•Return period (is dead ?)
•Scale of analysis
•Processes
•Fit it in three colors
•Models (the experience of USDA)
•Interaction and participation
•Who does it ?
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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guideline |ˈgīdˌlīn|nouna general rule, principle, or piece of advice.
In this case the problem is to prevent natural hazards, and, a a consequence,
something that is crucial to prioritizing what to do where in river
catchments
... for solving a problem
what is related to civil protection issuing alarms to population, urban and
regional planning, plan and design defense work, allocate public resources, and
producing sensible laws and regulations
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
4
EU projects
Are full of guidelines that nobody really read, except, maybe those
who prepared them.
Why ?
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
5
One problem is that the where is also important. Once you have design the
method, you realize that using it requires itself resources.
Therefore someone has to say where to apply the method in the region first
Prioritizing and financial investment is needed also for the
studies, and not only for the final outcomes
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
6
While it is proven
that each euro invested in these studies is worthwhile. This become evident
usually after a disaster has occurred, and if the disaster is avoided is usually
not evident to many.
This is paradoxical and causes an endemic low financial support to this kind of
initiatives and studies, especially at the very local scale where the danger is usually not
particularly felt.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
7
Lesson learned
Guidelines remains unread because there is not the correct information and
perception of what natural hazards can do in a given place. And because to apply
them require resources.
Guidelines need to become part of a participative process of learning about the environment which
involve institutions and people
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
8
Prioritizing
the studies require to cope with the perception of risk, beside hazard, even if
risk depends directly on hazards.
Guidelines for hazard prevention
require a criterion for getting a first guess of hazard and risk
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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This is why we gave to the province of Trento guidelines for hazard mapping “a scalar structure”, and different level of analysis.
First,
large scale, coarse grained, rules are used to choose where to study
and hazards are mapped in large, law resolution maps, using qualitative, historic, and soft information
Land use is crossed with these maps for a first guess of the risk, and hazards studies are made on these zone.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Nothing excludes that other methods
for making this choice should be applicable
For instance:
•urban expansion plans should include hazard assessment
• citizens and/or association could request the studies
•norms and laws could require it in certain conditions
• legal conflicts
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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But we must be very realistic
As a few convener told
No money, no party: there is, in this economic recession phase a great need to fully justify any single euro used in this field.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Back to the Physics
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Flood in plansThe River Berounka, Czech Republic, 2002
Water (with mud)
Da
Wik
iped
ia
Prologo
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Flood in mountainTorrente Chieppena, Villa, 4 November1966
Water, sediments, and debris
Cort
esia
, Pro
f. A
. Arm
anin
i
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
14
Flood in mountainTorrente Chieppena, Villa, 4 November1966
Water, sediments, and debris
Cort
esia
, Pro
f. A
. Arm
anin
i
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Cort
esia
, Pro
f. A
. Arm
anin
i
Water and (a lot of) mud
Flood in mountain
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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PropagationInundation
HydraulicsPrecipitations
Type of Quantity ofSequence ofStatistics of
Triggering
Runoff productionSediment delivery
The physics
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Triggering
rainfall statisticsrunoff
subsurface flows
Hydrology
1
Geomechanics
stresses in terrain
resistence in terrain1
1
1 1
Geology
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Geology
Earth Observation
Geophysics
statigraphy quaternary
How much soil/debris ?
Soil depth
Water content
Shape recognition Analizza i rapporti metrici
Is there soil
photo interpretation
exposed rockvegetation
human settlements
What is upon the terrain ?
soilCover&Use
type of covertype of use
weight of cover
0 1
elevationslope
curvaturedrainage
contributing areas
terrainAnalysis
0 1 1
The medium
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Propagation (liquid and solid)Inundation (liquid and solid)
Hydraulics
The outcome
How much - Where -with which velocity
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Propagation (liquid and solid)Inundation (liquid and solid)
Hydraulics
The outcome
How much - Where -with which velocity
With which uncertainty
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Low
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Preliminary Analisys
Low
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Preliminary Analisys
Potential Risk
High Low
In the average
Low
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Preliminary Analisys
Potential Risk
High Low
In the average
Low
Further Assessment considering uncertainties
High
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Low
Indicative analysis
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Medium-Low
Simplified analysis
Simplified Hydraulic analysis
High
Detailed analysis
Hydraulic analysis
Geological Analysis
Hydrological analysis
Geological Analysis
Hydrological analysis
Low
Indicative analysis
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Medium-Low
Simplified analysis
Simplified Hydraulic analysis
High
Detailed analysis
Hydraulic analysis
Geological Analysis
Hydrological analysis
Geological Analysis
Hydrological analysis
Low
Indicative analysis
Comparison with other hazard maps
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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The lesson we learnt
•Even from the technical point of view there is the
necessity of many interacting competences
•Assumed that the choice of the right models has
been done (which is not easy), there is a data
requirement to be fulfilled, even for a minimal
result
•Data when available are usually in strange formats.
Nobody knows what INSPIRE is.
•Data when NOT available need to be produced.
Institutions need standards (to which you can give a
price) procedures to get them
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
23
Drawing the map
Linee Guida Specifiche per lo Studio e la Redazione della Carta del Pericolo da Fenomeni Torrentizi Versione Marzo 2011
69
Si riporta come esempio in Figura 8.3 una carta del pericolo totale.
Figura 8.3 – Esempio di Carta della Pericolosità ottenibile utilizzando la metodologia spiegata nelle Linee Guida.
8.1.5 Valutazioni finali
La carta della pericolosità, prodotta sulla base delle intensità e delle probabilità di accadimento,
deve essere sottoposta ad alcune considerazioni e valutazioni prima della realizzazione della mappa
finale del pericolo. Come indicato nella Delibera Provinciale DGP 2759 del 22/12/2006, “tutti i
tematismi devono essere redatti almeno con dettaglio corrispondente alla scala vigente per la Carta
Tecnica Provinciale (CTP – 1:10000); dettagli maggiori sono utilizzabili in relazione alla natura
degli elementi presenti sul territorio ed al grado di pericolosità che li riguarda”.
La Carta della Pericolosità fornisce delle importanti indicazioni per gli strumenti di pianificazione
urbanistica del territorio; per tale motivo la carta non potrà limitarsi alle zone studiate mediante
modellazione idraulica, ma dovrà dare una rappresentazione più estesa della pericolosità,
introducendo nella rappresentazione cartografica una classificazione della pericolosità anche per le
aree del conoide che non sono caratterizzate da alcun valore delle grandezze indicatrici. Per queste
aree si può valutare, analizzando attentamente i dati raccolti e le criticità individuate nell’analisi
preliminare, se è possibile definire una classificazione della pericolosità secondo le classi ordinarie.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
24
The risk map
•Required the definition of degree of hazard which is, somewhat
arbitrary
Intensity
Probability
High
Medium
Low
High Medium Low
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
25
The risk map
•Required the definition of degree of hazard which is, somewhat
arbitrary
Intensity
Probability
High
Medium
Low
High Medium Low
These levelsdepend
on the phenomenabut threshold
are givenby law
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
26
The risk map
•Required the definition of degree of hazard which is, somewhat
arbitrary
Intensity
Probability
High
Medium
Low
High Medium LowThese depends
on laws
Monday, October 1, 12
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Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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For instance
0 50 100 150
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Precipitazione [mm]
P[h]
1h
3h
6h
12h
24h
Tr = 10 anni
h1 h3 h6 h12 h24
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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For instance
0 50 100 150
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Precipitazione [mm]
P[h]
1h
3h
6h
12h
24h
Tr = 10 anni
h1 h3 h6 h12 h24
Tr = 100 anni
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
29
Where do 500 years of return period is ?
•How much reliable is it ?
•How much is the uncertainty produced in
models ?
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
29
Where do 500 years of return period is ?
•How much reliable is it ?
•How much is the uncertainty produced in
models ?
BTW
•Usually people do not understand the concept of return period,
which is interpreted literally, and not statistically, over a certain area of
interest
•Some colleague declared that return period is dead
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
30
Going back to models
•There should be freedom to use the best models.
•But there is the need to have standards
•And beyond standards, the need to rely on some
concept of responsibility for who makes the maps
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
31
•Standard model should be available for free, as a
concept of democracy, and control. While usually
many services rely on proprietary software, whose
scientific basis cannot be verified by inspection of
the code.
Going back to models
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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Therefore
•We proposed, at least for the hydrological part of the guidelines, free
software to support independent investigations of the problems.
Knowing that
•Many technical issues are actually under scrutiny by the scientific
community, and should not given for granted.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
33
There are many experiences
in this direction in the World. Possibly the most ramarkable is the Object
Modeling System v3 pursued by the US Department of Agriculture. JGrass 3 - GEOFRAME in the next future
JGrass 3/ OMS 3
After David et al., 2009
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
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The Object Modeling System OMS is a modular modeling framework that uses
an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific
community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with
the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and
environmental models.
OMS3 can be found at: http://www.javaforge.com/project/omslib
OMS v3
OMS
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
35
Conclusion
Even if the process of hazard mapping is very technical, its acceptance to the
community must be the consequence of an integrated process of discussion
and acceptance.
Otherwise, the technical results either are not understood (i.e. technologists
must explain what they did e why), or simply considered in an alternative among
others, and not applied.
In turn, the identification of an hazard, does not automatically individuate the
solution but usually, a set of solutions, which, again require discussion and
acceptance to be transformed in policies.
Not the same solution is valid everywhere.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
36
Hazard information, Protection, Warning
Sense of danger: As Vladimiro Dorigo wrote, (Una Laguna
di chiacchere, 1972), the idea of how Nature is strong must
be recovered, and we need to be respectful of it.
Sense of change: climate is changing, and what is assessed
for now could not be for the future.
Sense of vulnerability: what was acceptable times ago in
term of risk is not anymore acceptable.
Monday, October 1, 12
Grazie per l’attenzione !
http://events.unitn.it/migg2011-2012
25-28 0ttobre 2011L’analisi idrologica per la redazione di carte del pericolo derivante dal franamento e dalle piene con JGrass(CUDAM e HYDROLOGIS) 7-10 febbraio 2012Progettazione e gestione delle reti idrauliche(CUDAM, HYDROLOGIS e HYDROMATES)
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
38
The Vigata Case0
1020
3040
50
tempo [giorno/ora]
Prec
ipita
zion
e [m
m]
01/10:16 01/10:17 01/10:18 01/10:19 01/10:20 01/10:21 01/10:22 01/10:23 02/10:00 02/10:01 02/10:02 02/10:03 02/10:04
010
2030
4050
It begins with a storm …They were rolls, waves that
finished in a puff: known noises, village things.(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
39
02
46
8
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08
02
46
8
idrogramma da evento realeprecipitazione misurata Montelusa
010
2030
4050
Piog
gia
[mm
/h]
The downpours were onto the courtyards here around, the thunder up
here above the roofs; I could recognize by ear, a little further up, the
place of the usual God that made storms when we were children, He too a
village character.(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
40
●
● ●
●
●
0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0
1020
5010
020
050
010
00
durate [ore]
h [m
m]
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919
TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889
TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875
TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860
TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830
TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822
evento: cumulata 9Hevento: cumulate 3Hevento: cumulate 1H
9h
3h
1h
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
40
●
● ●
●
●
0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0
1020
5010
020
050
010
00
durate [ore]
h [m
m]
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919
TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889
TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875
TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860
TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830
TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822
evento: cumulata 9Hevento: cumulate 3Hevento: cumulate 1H
9h
3h
1h
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
40
●
● ●
●
●
0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0
1020
5010
020
050
010
00
durate [ore]
h [m
m]
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919
TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889
TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875
TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860
TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830
TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822
evento: cumulata 9Hevento: cumulate 3Hevento: cumulate 1H
9h
3h
1h
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
40
●
● ●
●
●
0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0
1020
5010
020
050
010
00
durate [ore]
h [m
m]
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919
TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889
TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875
TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860
TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830
TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822
evento: cumulata 9Hevento: cumulate 3Hevento: cumulate 1H
9h
3h
1h
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
41
02
46
8
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08
02
46
8
evento realeevento intensità cost d=9Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=9Hprecipitazione misurata Montelusa
010
2030
4050
Piog
gia
[mm
/h]
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
42
02
46
8
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08
02
46
8
evento realeevento intensità cost d=9Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=9Hevento intensità cost d=7Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=7Hprecipitazione misurata Montelusa
010
2030
4050
Piog
gia
[mm
/h]
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
43
02
46
810
1214
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06
02
46
810
1214
evento simulato da ietogrammaLSPP, TR=300LSPP, TR=100LSPP, TR=50
In this basin, the maxima discharge are those which have short duration.
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
44
Oihbo’
Rainfall data are at hourly time step. We need sub-hourly
Rainfall has actually been measure elsewhere, at Montelusa a few chilometers from Vigata.
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
44
Oihbo’
Rainfall data are at hourly time step. We need sub-hourly
Rainfall has actually been measure elsewhere, at Montelusa a few chilometers from Vigata.
Moral
These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
44
Oihbo’
Rainfall data are at hourly time step. We need sub-hourly
Rainfall has actually been measure elsewhere, at Montelusa a few chilometers from Vigata.
Moral
These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic
In future
Maybe having data from high resolution meteorological models -less that 1 km2
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
45
BTW if the hydrologists have used the usual practice. Would have they contained the flood ?
02
46
810
1214
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06
02
46
810
1214
evento simulato da ietogrammaLSPP, TR=300LSPP, TR=100LSPP, TR=50
Yes, they would
The Vigata Case
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
46
Il caso di Vigata0
24
68
1012
14
tempo [giorno/ora]
Porta
ta [m
c/s]
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06
02
46
810
1214
evento simulato da ietogrammaLSPP, TR=300LSPP, TR=100LSPP, TR=50
90-100 mc/s No, if they would not have accounted for the debris
BTW if the hydraulic work have been made following the usual practice. Would have they contained the flood ?
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
47
... you know what I'm craving? A little perspective. That's it. ...Anton Egò
Investing resources
to save
resources
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
48
In this case
Meteorological model at high resolution (radar, ground networks, satellites)
Fully distributed hydrological models
Rainfall-Runoff-Propagation ModelsC
on
trol
from
sat
elli
tes
Gro
un
d m
easu
re a
nd
exp
erim
ents
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
49
cou
rtes
y C
ISM
A (
ww
w.c
ism
a.b
z.it)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
50
cou
rtes
y C
ISM
A (
ww
w.c
ism
a.b
z.it)
\
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
51
02
46
810
12
time (day/month)
Ipre
c
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
820
830
840
850
time (day/month)
AirP
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
2040
6080
100
time (day/month)
Rel
Hum
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
050
100
200
300
time (day/month)
SWgl
ob
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
−20
−10
010
time (day/month)
AirT
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
050
150
250
350
time (day/month)
Win
dDir
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
cou
rtes
y M
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g (
ww
w.m
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g.c
om
)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
52
cou
rtes
y M
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g (
ww
w.m
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g.c
om
)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
53
cou
rtes
y Pro
f. E
. Far
abeg
oli
, Un
iv. B
olo
gn
a
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
54
cou
rtes
y M
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g (
ww
w.m
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g.c
om
)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
55
cou
rtes
y M
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g (
ww
w.m
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g.c
om
)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
56
cou
rtes
y M
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g (
ww
w.m
ou
nta
in-e
erin
g.c
om
)
Forecasting
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
57
What you cannot forecast, you can prevent
Courtesy del Prof. Aronne Armanini- Check dam withDebris Flow Breaker
Monday, October 1, 12
Riccardo Rigon
Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011
58
Thank you for your attention
G.U
lric
i -
20
00
?
Monday, October 1, 12