darren quinlivan - metro trains melbourne
TRANSCRIPT
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Implementing the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM) at Metro Trains MelbourneDarren Quinlivan, Strategy & Risk ManagerSafety, Environment & Risk
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What is the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM)?
• Quantitative model estimating the risk of various hazardous events that could occur on a
railway
• RISSB project stage 1 due for delivery late 2017
• The project is associating occurrence data from ONRSR into the model
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Hazardous Events
A model of safety risk on Australian Railways
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Example taken from UK Safety risk model
Taken from UK RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2015/2016 rssb.co.uk
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Example – Hazardous Event
Model includes possible ranges of harm from
derailments and the probabilities of escalation
• The worst derailment in Australia was
Granville, in 1977, when 83 died
• But most derailments result in no harm to
persons
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Risk Estimates
• The unit of risk will be Fatalities and Weighted Injuries per year (FWI/yr), where one FWI is equivalent to:
one fatality, or 10 serious injuries, or 200 minor injuries.
• Risk estimates will be iteratively updated based on the occurrence data in the last period of collection
• Risk values will be normalised for your operations:
• e.g. Track length, Freight kilometres travelled, Passenger kilometres travelled, Infrastructure
worker hours, Passenger journeys per year.
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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So…How will this improve safety on the Melbourne Network?
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Benefits
ARRM provides a greater understanding of risk, its causes and consequences
• Measuring Safety Performance
• Setting priorities• Benchmarking against other operators
• Making Safe Decisions
• New projects coming on line• Decisions to ensure continued safety of changes to legacy assets
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Melbourne Network
Undergoing the greatest network transformation in its history:
• 50 Level Crossing removals
• 65 High Capacity Metro Trains
• Metro Tunnel Project
• High Capacity Signalling(including CBTC)
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Measuring Safety Performance
Some conventional measures:
• All injury frequency rate
• Lost time injury frequency rate and severity rate
• Customer injury frequency rate
• Rate of Signals Passed at Danger
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
How do we measure safety risk?
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Measuring Safety Performance
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017 Consequence Severity
Frequency of Occurrence
Slips, trips and falls
Musculoskeletal injury
Electrical risk
Collisions/derailment risks
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UK 10 year trend in risk precursors
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Level crossing removals
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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UK Estimated risk vs observed rate of harm
Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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UK Summary of overall safety risk
Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Sources of risk UK
Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Making Safe Decisions
Support quantitative risk analysis and cost benefit analysis
As the operator ARRM will assist validation of analyses provided by projects
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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ONRSR Major Projects Guideline
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
Section 4.4 Quantitative safety limits As a minimum, the ONRSR expects: • major projects to document the upper
limit for individual or collective risks of equivalent fatality; and
• major projects to ensure documented limits are consistent with the relevant RTO’s SMS.
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Melbourne Tunnel Project
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
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Making Safe Decisions
Compare Options or Benchmark against the Industry
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
Current risk Option AOption B
Industry Average
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Examples of Sensitivity Tests
Assess risk/benefit from changes to:
• Protection arrangements at a level crossing
• Line-speed on track sections
• New signalling equipment or different train protection strategies
• Configuration change or upgrades to rolling stock
• Train service frequency
Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
• Carriage of dangerous goods
• Track maintenance
• Driver training and competence systems
• Introducing escalators rather than stairs
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Thank youMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017
Project contactsJesse Baker - RISSBNeil Robinson - RBG Assurance
[email protected]@rgbassurance.com.au