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TRANSCRIPT
2019 NALCAB National Training
Data and Mapping Tools for Anticipating Neighborhood Change
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Program Development
Neighborhood Stabilization Program 2:
2010-2016 $220 Million Deployed
San Francisco Mission Promise
Neighborhood Housing Assessment (March
2015)
HUD Technical Assistance Provider
https://www.nalcab.org/equitable-neighborhood-development/
In what ways is your community changing?
Anticipating Neighborhood Change
Identify the Factors 01
02
03
Understanding Market Changes
Anticipating Market Activity
& Real Estate Price Appreciation
Identify the Factors
01 ➢ Drawing on local knowledge about how
politics, economics, history, and culture
shape development and population
movements in a community, and
➢ Collecting, analyzing, and mapping
socioeconomic, demographic, housing,
and investment data.
• Median Rent or Median Home Value
• Median Household Income
• Population 25 years+ with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher
• Race/Ethnicity: Non-Hispanic White population
Neighborhood Trend Analysis
$47,937 21.6%
Neighborhood
Trend Analysis
City of San Antonio
2000-2010
What is driving change in your community?
Understanding Market Changes
02 ➢ Analyze the factors causing change to
understand where development and
real estate price appreciation are likely
to occur in the future.
Catalysts for Neighborhood Change
Proximity to Changing Neighborhoods
Public & Private Investment
Housing Affordability
Accessibility to Assets
Availability of Property
Other
Factors Driving Change
How has the community changed demographically and economically
over time?
How have public/ private actions and investment decisions
contributed to changes in the community?
Questions to Address
Housing Construction and
Rehabilitation Activity
Source: City of San Antonio
City of San Antonio
2011-2016
Value of Building Permits
Low High
Public Investment Activity
Source: City of San Antonio
City of San Antonio
2011-2018
Bond 2012, Bond 2017, CCDO 2011-
2017, HOME 2011-2016
Value of Investments
Low High
Total Home Value
Appraisal Changes
Source: BCAD
City of San Antonio
What challenges and/or opportunities does
neighborhood change present?
Anticipating Activity & Appreciation
➢ Anticipate the impact and
implications of real estate market
changes for low- and moderate-
income households.
03
Impact and Implications
for Low- and Moderate-Income Households
Income-based
Physical/mental health-related
Social vulnerability
Vulnerability related to discrimination
Others?
Vulnerable Households
Subsidized rental units with expiring affordability
“Naturally-occurring” affordable rental housing in appreciating areas
Homeownership housing and rising property taxes
Mobile home communities
Environmental hazards
Housing in disrepair
Vulnerable Housing Stock
Neighborhood improvements
New housing/commercial
More family-friendly entertainment events
Healthier food options
A more diverse community
Increase in home values
Decrease in crime
Increase customer base for community businesses
Benefits of Revitalization
Vulnerable Households
Source: ACS, HouseCanary
City of Houston
2011 - 2017
* Average Appreciation Rate was 84.4%
Vulnerable Housing Stock
Source: PolicyMap
City of Los Angeles
2017
Data & Resources
FactFinder/American Community Survey (ACS)
Brown University Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB)
HUD CPD Maps/HUD AFFH Data and Mapping Tool
Community Analyst
HMDA Data
Demographic Data
Open Records Request (e.g. building permits, capital projects, etc.)
Neighborhood/City/ County Plans
Tax Appraisal
Local Board of Realtors
Community Stakeholders (schools, nonprofits, businesses, residents, etc.)
Local Data
Affordability - Paycheck to Paycheck Tool
Existing Resources - Housing and Economic Development Funding/ Finance/Programs
Review of Public Investments/Policies/ Community Development Programs
CoStar – comprehensive real estate data
Other Resources
Networking Break
30 Minute
Current Work
With support from JPMorgan Chase
Foundation and W. K. Kellogg
Foundation – NALCAB is providing
grants, technical assistance, and
training to 17 non-profit
organizations, in 15 different
markets, to develop and implement
place-based, data- and community-
driven action plans for equitable
development.
A data-driven plan to analyze and
anticipate the impact of neighborhood
change on low- and moderate-income
communities and to inform the
implementation of place-based strategies
for equitable development.
Equitable Neighborhood Development
Action Plan
Goals, Strategies, and
Actions
Metrics of Success
Key Resources
Defining Equitable
Development
Telling the story of your
community
Data/Market Observations
Equitable Neighborhood Development
Action Plan
What are actions we can take to foster equitable development in our cities and neighborhoods?
Goal
Strategy
Action step(s)
Group Activity
Large Group Report Out
Lessons Learned
Example: City of San Antonio
Supported and facilitated
the strategic planning
efforts of the San
Antonio Mayor’s
Housing Policy Task
Force (2018)
Assisted COSA to assess
City housing programs
and develop the 5-Year
HUD Consolidated
Plan (2014-2015)
Developed the City’s first
Housing Vulnerability
Analysis (2017-2018)
Assessed the Eastside
Promise
Neighborhood
Initiative and developed
a Strategic Plan for
Sustainability (2016-
2018)
Assisted COSA and
SAHA to jointly develop
an Analysis of
Impediments to Fair
Housing (2018-2019)
City of San Antonio
Provided an
organizational
assessment and strategic
recommendations for
San Antonio Housing
Trust (2018-2019)
Strategies
Mayor’s Housing Policy Task Force (MHPTF)
• Develop a coordinated housing system
• Increase city investment in housing
• Increase affordable housing production,
rehabilitation, and preservation
• Protect and promote neighborhoods
• Ensure accountability to the public
https://www.sanantonio.gov/Portals/0/Files/HousingPolicy/Resources/SA-HousingPolicyFramework.pdf
Avanzando Comunidades: People, Places, and Policy Tour
Journey to the heart of San Antonio’s established and historic downtown communities to explore investment patterns and understand local policies that are shaping neighborhoods. Get a first-hand look at the dynamics of development and its impact on inner city residents.
• Present Ticket to board bus
• Location – Main Lobby
• Departure Time – 1:45pm
THANK YOU!
Jake WhiteSr. Program Manager
Melissa MedinaProgram Manager
Marcella ReyesProgram [email protected]
George SanchezGIS Analyst