data coordination working group (dcwg) meeting september 18 th & 19 th energy information...
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Data Coordination Working Group Data Coordination Working Group (DCWG) Meeting(DCWG) Meeting
September 18th & 19th
Energy Information Administration (EIA)Washington, DCRoom 2E-069
DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1)DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1)September 18, 2008 | 1:00p.m.–5:00 p.m.
Introductions
Logistics, objectives of the meeting
Updates from EIA
• Status of Presidential Permits
• Update on Forms & Requirements
• Status of 2011 data collection forms
• EIA letter to NERC on what they want
(Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…)
• Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA
• Data to collect for renewables
• Granularity of transmission data
Update NERC-EIA Memorandum of Understanding
Review new schedules for data collection
How does NERC map LTRA data into 411
Matching NERC’s UGD and 860
Update on data collection effort by EIA on coal delivery issues
Schedule-1 data needs
DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 2)DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 2)
September 19, 2008 | 8:00a.m.12:00 p.m.
Review NERC reliability assessment process and analysis Updates from EIA
Posting Policy
Review various Task Force Activities and their impact on DCWG
NERC plans for presenting data in reliability assessments
Feedback from LTRA workshop
Status update on the DCWG and RAS work plans
Feedback from regions on Winter and LTRA forms
Capacity margin proposal by WECC and NERC's findings on collecting Schedule 2 data
Update on Task 4 “Review the NERC Analysis and Processes,” of DCWG work plan
Schedule next briefing call for DCWG
Adjourn
ObjectivesObjectives
Improve coordination with EIA
Decide on data needs:
• Review Data needs approved by PC
• Includes NERC requirements for the LTRA and Seasonal Assessments
Develop feedback to RAS
Review DCWG work plans and status
Updates From EIA – John MakensUpdates From EIA – John Makens
Updates from EIA
• Status of Presidential Permits
• Update on Forms & Requirements
• Status of 2011 data collection forms
• EIA letter to NERC on what they want (Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…)
• Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA
• Data to collect for renewables
• Granularity of transmission data
Data Collection of RenewablesData Collection of Renewables
140,000 MW (nameplate) of wind to be added in coming 10 years
Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26%
Expected Capacity: Summer Wind On-Peak
8.7% 8.7%
19.9%19.9%
9.1%
13.1%
19.6%
15.0%13.4%
17.3%
24.7%
26.4%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017 2008 2017
ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC
MW
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Existing Planned Proposed % of Wind to Nameplate
TADS Data Collection FormsTADS Data Collection Forms
2.1 Joint AC/DC Circuits
2.2 Joint AC/DC BTB Converters
3.1 AC/DC Circuits Inventory
3.2 Transformer Inventory
3.3 AC/DC BTB Converter Inventory
3.4 Summary Automatic Outage Data
4.1 AC Circuit Outages
4.2 DC Circuit Outages
4.3 Transformer Outages
4.4 AC/DC BTB Converter Outages
5.0 Event ID Codes
TADS Overview of Data & MetricsTADS Overview of Data & Metrics
Element Inventory Data
Automatic Outage Data (each outage)
• Outage ID
• Event ID Code
• Fault Type
• Outage Initiation Code
• Outage Start Time
• Outage Duration
• Outage Cause Codes
Initiating
Sustained
• Outage Mode
Basic metrics
• Outage frequency
• Outage duration
• Mean time between failure
• Mean time to repair
• Median time to repair
• Percent availability
• Percent of Elements with no outages
• Disturbance report events
Other metrics developed as needed
RE can add additional metrics
New Transmission DataNew Transmission Data
Transmission Data Reporting
• Schedule 5
Existing
Planned
Proposed
NERC/EIA Data InterfaceNERC/EIA Data Interface
EIANERC ES&D ES&D
Generator Owners & Operators NERC Regions
LTRA Data 860 Data
411 Data
860 Data
KEYNERC = North American Reliability CorporationEIA = Energy Information AdministrationES&D = Electricity Supply & Demand database & Unified Generator Database860 = Annual Electric Generator Report (US only)411 = Long-Term Generation & Supply Data (US Only)LTRA = Long-Term Reliability Assessment Data Collection (Contains 411 Data)
All DataAll Data CA/MXGenerator Data
Reliability Assessment:Reliability Assessment: Data Collection Process Data Collection Process
Workbooks are copied to server folder and renamed
Data is extracted from workbooks and imported into an MS Access database
Data is queried and exported to Excel
Tables and charts are inserted into a draft LTRA report
Data Collection Process (Summer)Data Collection Process (Summer)
ERO-SUMMER2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October
Data submissions and narratives due to NERC by March 31
Notification of data corrections by April 15
Corrected submissions due by April 30
Publish report May 15
Data Collection Process (LTRA)Data Collection Process (LTRA)
ERO-LTRA2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October
Data submissions & narratives due by May 1
Notification of data corrections by June 15
Corrected submissions due by July 30
Publish report October 15
Review NERC Reliability Review NERC Reliability Assessment Process and Assessment Process and AnalysisAnalysis
Capacity Margins
• Layered Approach
• Metric to evaluate resource adequacy
• Used for Special Reliability Assessments
2007 Capacity Margins
• Available Resources
• Potential Resources
NERC’s Reliability Assessment AnalysisNERC’s Reliability Assessment Analysis
* This slide is a simulation of the categories and does not reflect actual data
Data Analysis ProcessData Analysis Process
Tables and Charts
• Compare to previous year’s data
Identify trend differences
Flag and follow up on outliers
• Review demand and capacity projections
Check for consistency with the self-assessment text
• Review capacity margin trends
Identify when curves drop below target (NERC Reference Level)
Check for consistency with the self-assessment text
Data Analysis ProcessData Analysis Process
Additional Data Queries
• Support emerging issues
• Identify industry trends
• Ad-hoc
• Perform NERC Special Reliability Assessments:
Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation
NERC Special Reliability Assessment:NERC Special Reliability Assessment:Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation Generation
NERC Special Assessments offer an opportunity to analyze potential reliability concerns for the future
Along with third-party data, NERC was able to capture retirement and retrofit effects of the proposed EPA 316b rule.
Other Data ActivitiesOther Data Activities
Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D)
• LTRA data exported to Excel
• Includes historic capacity and demand data since 1990
• Contains EIA-860 – Generator data
• Available for purchase - $5,000 NERC members - FREE
Regional Council members - FREE
Government agencies - FREE
Educational Institutions - FREE
• Provide support
ProblemsProblems
Lack of Consistency
• Data and definition revisions
• Output to tables and charts
• Year to year comparison are cumbersome
• Supporting questions and teaching the world
No IT Support
No 1-Click Solution
Need to Improve data collection system at NERC
• Systems require re-tooling
• Adopt Best Practices from Other Regions
Posting PolicyPosting Policy
File Type Size Date Description
Acrobat 19 KB 08/26/08 DCWG Roster (August 26, 2008)
PowerPoint 677 KB 06/19/08 DCWG Work Status Report as of June 16, 2008
PowerPoint 655 KB 04/22/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS as of April 9, 2008
Acrobat 37 KB 04/11/08 NERC Reliability Assessment Process
Acrobat 74 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Survey - Regions
Acrobat 75 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process
PowerPoint 966 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process Presentation
Acrobat 19 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Experience and Issues for the 2008 Data Collection
Acrobat 51 KB 04/11/08 DCWG 2008-2010 Work Plan
PowerPoint 83 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Action Items
PowerPoint 670 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status
Acrobat 26 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Transparency Issues
PowerPoint 679 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS
Acrobat 102 KB 04/11/08 Meeting Agenda - April 9, 2008 (Washington, D.C.)
PowerPoint 690 KB 04/11/08 PC Activities
Acrobat 56 KB 01/30/06 Meeting Minutes - December 14-15, 2005 (Tampa, FL)
Review of Various TF/WG ActivitiesReview of Various TF/WG Activities
RAS:
• Need for More granularity in Transmission
• Need to add one more year to data collection to eliminate current Summer in LTRA
RAITF: Reliability Assessment Improvement
RAGTF: Reliability Assessment Guidebook
RMWG: Reliability Metrics
Proposed Capacity DefinitionsProposed Capacity Definitions
These definitions represent an enhancement over the current set in use for reliability assessments.
Proposed definitions were presented to the NERC PC at the June 4-5, 2008 meeting in Toronto for comment, and were also circulated to the PC’s subgroups.
The proposal addresses PC specific advice:
• treatment of resources in organized markets, and
• deals with the deliverability within the recommended categories
Comparison to Current DefinitionsComparison to Current Definitions
Existing – Certain
Existing – Uncertain
Future – Planned
Future – Proposed
Existing – Certain
Existing – Other
Existing but Inoperable
Future – Planned
Future – Other
Conceptual
Current Definitions Proposed Definitions
General Concepts for Reporting CapacityGeneral Concepts for Reporting Capacity
All existing capacity resources (iron in the ground) must be reported in one of the “Existing” categories
• In cases where categorization is unclear or difficult to determine, report as “Other”
“Future” capacity resources have achieved one of the milestones outlined in the definition (some degree of confidence that the resource will become available)
• Milestones include permitting, site work, or contracting status
“Conceptual” category used to capture expected resources that are less certain or are still in the planning/development stages (i.e. resources that could not be classified as “Future”)
The goal of this Guidebook is to:• Improve consistency and transparency of assessments
• Increase granularity in assessments
• Outline the process to assess emerging industry issues
• Foundations/expectations/requirement for the NERC portion of the assessments
• Provide a framework for conducting comprehensive and independent assessments
This Guidebook will be a reference for regional entities and registered entities, and is organized to clarify reliability assessment expectations and objectives.
It is intended to document expectations and provide a comprehensive outline for reliability assessments.
RAG: Reliability Assessment GuidebookRAG: Reliability Assessment Guidebook
First Draft Completed, materials provided by
• RIS
• DCWG
• LFWG
• NERC Staff
Report being reviewed by RAG Task Force
Draft being Readied for October-November
RAG StatusRAG Status
June 15 Draft Outline Completed
June 30 Industry review of Draft Outline Completed
September 30 Review of Draft with RAG members
October 15 Guidebook preparation completed
December 5-6 Review final Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed by PC
December 30 Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed and launched
RAG Updated ScheduleRAG Updated Schedule
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #1DCWG 2008 Work Plans #1
Seasonal and Long-Term Reliability Assessment Guidebook Background: Regional entities perform reliability assessments using a variety of tools,
assumptions and methodology. There is a need to provide a guidebook, for the regional entities to use in preparation of the assessments and for peer reviewers to ensure consistency in the reliability assessments, outlining NERC’s expectations and forming a foundation for a sufficiently robust reliability assessment. The objectives of the reliability assessment guidebook are:
• Clarifying reliability assessment expectations
• Fortify peer review of assessments
• Address inconsistency in regional responses
• Ensure transparency
• Increase linkage between NERC staff and regional assessments
• Balancing areas that cross regional entity boundaries, especially regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs), may require attention as their assessment can be fragmented between two regions and may not accurately reflect reliability
The DCWG will contribute to the data collection portions of the LTRA Guidebook.
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #2DCWG 2008 Work Plans #2
Use of Scenario evaluations to incorporate emerging issues into LTRA
Background: he LTRA provides a reference case from which select scenarios can be compared. Identifying significant emerging issues should drive scenario development. A process has been proposed by the RAITF that includes RIS/TIS/RAS identification of emerging issues, survey of the PC membership to develop a risk matrix, vetting the results and development of reliability assessment for comparative purposes to the LTRA reference case. Once approved by the PC, materials to support this process and execution of the process are next steps.
DCWG will work with the Regional Entities to incorporate the data requirements for the 2009 and 2011 scenarios
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #3DCWG 2008 Work Plans #3
Metrics development for 1-5 and 6-10 years
Background: The certainty and granularity of long-term and seasonal reliability assessments are different between the 1-5 year and the 6-10 year timeframes of the 10-year LTRA. In addition, metrics are also needed for seasonal assessments to provide an indication of continuity between the operating and future planning horizons. Meaningful metrics (beyond just capacity margin) are required to more fully assess regional/subregional reliability and adequacy and achieve an appropriate level of granularity; this work will also include considerations about the data that needs to be collected to calculate these metrics.
DCWG will enhance the seasonal and LTRA data collection templates to support the metric collection
DCWG to develop data collection forms and instruction sheets to support the collection of data and metric requirements identified
DCWG will ready seasonal and LTRA templates for 2009 data collection by October 2008
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #4DCWG 2008 Work Plans #4
Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes
The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC.
Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements.
• Report due to RAS in December 2008
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #5DCWG 2008 Work Plans #5
Recommend changes to the data collected and the definitions to the RAS and PC.
The DCWG will seek feedback from regional entities on the new supply and demand definitions proposed by RAITF, DSMTF and LFWG, approved by the PC. The DCWG will develop a summary of what worked and what needs further enhancements
Summarize the findings to RAS.
Report to RAS on seasonal and LTRA assessments for 2008 by:
• April for Summer
• May (LTRA)
• October for Winter
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #6DCWG 2008 Work Plans #6
Collaborative meetings
• Annual meeting with EIA increasing coordination and providing input to EIA data collection activities.
• Actively engage other NERC Planning Committee groups to support the work plan
DCWG to actively participate in the reliability assessment improvement process by providing liaison as appropriate.
Provide periodic status reports to RAS during 2008
DCWG 2008 Work Plans #7DCWG 2008 Work Plans #7
EIA 411 data collection
• Collect data on behalf of the industry for the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) form 411
DCWG will submit data per EIA’s deadlines annually
• April of 2008
Update on Task 5 Update on Task 5 Data Collection Survey RecommendationsData Collection Survey Recommendations
Response1. NERC should send the data request in October rather
than January-February
2. NERC should revise the NERC Regions submittal deadline for the LTRA annual Data Collection efforts from March 31st to April 30th.
3. NERC should hold Workshops earlier to explain the forms, data expectations and schedules.
4. Address the status of the MOD standards and the implications for LSE, RC compliance.
Feedback from Regions Feedback from Regions on Winter and LTRA on Winter and LTRA FormsForms
Feedback & Comments
Update on Task 4Update on Task 4Review the NERC Analysis and ProcessesReview the NERC Analysis and Processes
Phil Fedora:
•Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes
•The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC.
•Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements.
•Report due to RAS in December 2008