data, dollars and decisions
TRANSCRIPT
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DATA, DOLLARS AND DECISIONS
Jan FreitagSenior Vice President, STR
Sponsored by
#mtntrvl @[email protected]
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Agenda• Total US Review
• Colorado Ski Area
• Select Resort Markets
• Pipeline
• 2013 / 2014 Forecast
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www.hotelnewsnow.comClick on “Data Presentations”
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Total US Review
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February 2014 (12 MMA): Strongest Demand Ever
% Change
• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7% • Room Demand* 1.1 bn 2.3%• Occupancy 62.5% 1.6% • A.D.R.* $111 3.7% • RevPAR* $69 5.3% • Room Revenue* $123 bn 6.1%
February 12 MMA 2014, Total US Results* All Time High
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OCC Will Probably Continue To Slow. Steady ADR Growth.
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 20112012-10
-5
0
5
OCC % ChangeADR % Change
-6.7%
7.5%6.8%
-9.7%
6.2%
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 2/2014
4.2%
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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 201120122013-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 2/2014
65 Months 42 Mo.112 Months
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Colorado Ski Area
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Winter 13/14: Strong RevPAR Growth
% Change
• 171 Properties with 16k rooms• Room Supply -0.8%• Room Demand 5.0%• Occupancy 64% 5.9%• A.D.R. $315 6.4%• RevPAR $201 12.7%• Room Revenue $477mm 11.7%
November 2012 – March (Prelim) 2014, CO Ski Area
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Room Demand Rebounds Well
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142500000.0
2700000.0
2900000.0
3100000.0
3300000.0
3.2
*CO Ski Areas, Total Room Sold, 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014
3.0
*March 2014Prelim
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Winter Room Demand: Stronger Than Ever
November December January February March100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2007/8 2011/12 2012/13
2013/14
*March 2014 Prelim
*Monthly Room Demand, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14 Nov – Mar; CO Ski Areas
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Winter Room Demand % Change: Good Growth This Season
November December January February March
-0.2
5.0
-3.6
0.2 2.0
11.5
-12.5
8.110.3
5.4 5.2
11.5
5.5 4.5
6.3
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Demand % Change, 2011 – 2014, Nov – Mar; CO Ski Area
*March 2014 Prelim
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Winter OCC: Back To Peak
November December January February March0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
41.9
64.8 69.6
77.1 77.7
31.1
57.7
70.1
78.9 82.2
2007/8 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly Occupancy, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Nov – Feb; CO Ski Areas
*March 2014 Prelim
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Very Encouraging ADR Trajectory
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$150
$200
$250
*CO Ski Areas, ADR $, 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014,
*March 2014 Prelim
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As OCC Increases, So Does ADR % Change
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0 ADR% Change (LHS) OCC% (RHS)
*CO Ski Areas, ADR % Change vs Occupancy % , 12 MMA 1/2000 – 3/2014,
*March 2014 Prelim
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Winter Room ADR: Pricing Power!
November December January February March$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$128
$370
$321 $326 $330
2007/8 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly ADR, 2007/08, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Nov – Mar; CO Ski Areas
*March 2014 Prelim
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November December January February March
11.6
10.1
7.5
5.8
4.6
3.8
9.19.6
4.7
1.9
0.7
6.4
5.3 4.3
9.6
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*ADR % Change, 2011 – 2014, Nov - Mar, CO Ski Area
Winter ADR %: Healthy Increases Over The Last Years
*March 2014 Prelim
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Winter WEEKDAY OCC: Good Improvements
December January February0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
52.5
63.7
74.6
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly Weekday Occupancy, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas
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Winter WEEKDAY ADR: Healthy Results
December January February$200
$250
$300
$350
$400 377.83
318.59 314.18
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly Weekday ADR, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas
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Winter WEEKEND OCC: Pretty Much Sold Out
December January February0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
72.4
85.6 89.7
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly Weekend Occupancy, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec – Feb; CO Ski Areas
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Winter WEEKEND ADR: Full Hotels Have Pricing Power
December January February$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
352.59
324.66
351.92
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*Monthly Weekend ADR, ‘11/12, ‘12/13, ’13/14, Dec– Feb; CO Ski Areas
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Summer Room Demand: 2013 – Best Summer Yet
June July August September200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
340000
2011 2012 2013
*Room Demand, 2011 -13, June – September; CO Ski Areas
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Summer Occupancy: Healthy, But Slightly Lower Than 2012
June July August September30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
50.8
64.7 61.3
49.1
2011 2012 2013
*Occupancy, 2011 -13, June – September; CO Ski Areas
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Summer ADR: Healthy Growth Expected in Summer 2014
June July August September$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$177
$193
$183
$148
2011 2012 2013
*ADR, 2011-13; June – September; CO Ski Areas
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Selected Markets
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Winter Occupancy: 2007/08 Results Still Elusive
Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
63%
58%
46%
36%
2007/08 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
*OCC, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, Nov – Feb; Select Ski Markets
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Winter ADR: Setting New Records
Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$406
$445
$352
$116
2007/082011/122012/132013/14
*ADR, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, Nov – Feb; Select Ski Markets
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Summer Occupancy: Mostly Selling 6 Of 10 Rooms
Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
58%
62% 62%
60%
2011 2012 2013
*OCC, 2007, 2011, 2012, June - September; Select Ski Markets
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Summer ADR: Steady Increases As Availability Shrinks
Vail Aspen Park City South Lake Tahoe$50
$150
$250
$350
$188
$302
$151
$117
2011 2012 2013
*ADR, 2007, 2011, 2012, June – September, Select Ski Markets
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Pipeline
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US Pipeline: Construction Accelerates
Phase 2014 2013 % Change
In Construction 98 74 32%
Final Planning 133 95 40%
Planning 127 150 -16%
Active Pipeline 358 320 12%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, February 2014 and 2013
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Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
4,577.08,285.0
36,485.0
29,262.0
5,125.0
1,084.0
12,921.0
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, February 2014
67%
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2014 / 2015 Forecast
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U.S. Forecast summary2014
Supply 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
Demand 2.3% 3.0% 2.4%
Occupancy 1.1% 1.8% 1.4%
ADR 4.2% 4.8% 4.5%
RevPAR 5.3% 6.6% 6.0%
2015Supply 1.6% 1.4%
Demand 2.1% 3.3%
Occupancy 0.5% 1.8%
ADR 4.2% 5.6%
RevPAR 4.7% 7.5%Updated 1/24/14 1/6/14
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Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2014F by Chain Scale
2014 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy(% chg)
ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 1.6% 4.8% 6.5%Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.4% 4.5%
Upscale 2.2% 4.2% 6.6%Upper Midscale 0.5% 3.2% 3.7%
Midscale 0.9% 3.1% 4.1%Economy 1.7% 3.3% 5.1%
Independent 0.6% 4.5% 5.1%Total United States 1.1% 4.2% 5.3%
*as of February 24th, 2014
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Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2015F by Chain Scale
2015 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy(% chg)
ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 0.8% 4.8% 6.0%Upper Upscale 0.2% 4.4% 4.6%
Upscale 0.5% 4.2% 5.1%Upper Midscale -0.4% 3.2% 2.1%
Midscale 0.2% 3.1% 3.5%Economy 2.6% 3.3% 6.2%
Independent -0.1% 4.5% 4.3%Total United States 0.5% 4.2% 4.7%
*as of February 24th, 2014
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Publicly Traded Co’s U.S. RevPAR Guidance 2014 • DiamondRock Hospitality + 9% to +11%• Pebblebrook + 6.5% to +7.5%• Hilton + 5% to +7%
(worldwide)• Starwood + 5% to +7%
(worldwide)• Strategic Hotels + 5% to +7%• Hersha Trust + 5% to +7%• Host Hotels + 5% to +6%• Belmond (ex Orient Express) + 4% to +8% (worldwide)• Sunstone + 4% to +6.5% • Marriott + 4% to +6%
(North America)• Wyndham + 4% to +6% • RLJ Trust + 4% to +6%• Ryman + 4% to +6%• Chesapeake +3.5% to +5.5%• Choice + 3.5% to +4.5%
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Less Wrong?
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