david nefs - innovative approaches to attribution

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Innovative Approaches to Attribution GHWF, December 2016

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Page 1: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Innovative Approaches to

AttributionGHWF, December 2016

Page 2: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

What is marketing attribution?

VOLUME + VALUE

Page 3: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Who am I?

Page 4: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Understanding the VALUE of conversions

Renewal Rate

Enquiries

• BEWARE OF AVERAGES!• Marginal impact• Channel/device differences

• Understand LTV• Margin vs revenue• Avoid double counting

Page 5: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Understanding the VOLUME of conversions

Page 6: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

4 types of digital misattribution

1. Digital

2. Cross-device

3. Offline to Online

4. Online to offline

Page 7: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Organisational maturity matters

Page 8: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

DigitalI GOT 99 PROBLEMS

Rules based attribution Last click, First click,

U-shaped, Linear

Data Driven attribution GA360, Adserver (DCM),

SaaS (A360, VIQ), In-house (R)

Lift tests and MMM

Page 9: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

DigitalI GOT 99 PROBLEMS

PPC Display FB

UK CPL

PPC Display FB

DE CPL

Page 10: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Cross-deviceI GOT 99 PROBLEMS

Assisted conversionsAdwords, Analytics

Single User viewDeterministic: First party (GA User ID), Third Party (Atlas) +

Probabilistic

Lift tests and MMM

Page 11: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Offline - OnlineI GOT 99 PROBLEMS

Surveys, Promo codes‘Where did you hear about us?’

Uplift measurementSpot attribution

Lift tests and MMMGeo-based

Page 12: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Online - Offline I GOT 99 PROBLEMS

Surveys, Vouchers‘Where did you hear about us?’

Single User viewCRM records, Loyal cards

Lift tests and MMM

Page 13: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Digital misattribution approachesI GOT 99 PROBLEMS

Lift tests and MMM

Digital

Online-Offline

Cross-device

Offline-Online

Surveys, Promo codes

Uplift measurement Single-user view

Single-user view

Assisted conversions

Surveys, Promo codes

Rules-based attribution

Data-driven attribution

Page 14: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

Summary• Attribution = understanding of the business impact of marketing

• Consider VALUE as well VOLUME of marketing conversions

• Organisational maturity is important - no one-size-fits-all or magic bullet

• Choose tools appropriate to the specific attribution challenge faced

Page 15: DAVID NEFS - INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTRIBUTION

[email protected]

Questions