day 13: problems: numbers and causes - …...day 13: problems: numbers and causes daniel j....
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Day 13: Problems: Numbers and Causes
Daniel J. Mallinson
School of Public AffairsPenn State [email protected]
PUBPL 304
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Road map
Discuss how numbers and causal stories frameproblems
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Problem Definition
Symbols
Numbers
Causes
Interests
Decisions
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Who to count?
Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria
Who should do the counting?
Bureau of Labor and StatisticsDo not have a job
Actively looked in last 4 weeks
Currently available for work
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Challenges to Criteria
Wrongful Exclusion
Wrongful Inclusion
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Numbers as Metaphor
Example: Three-fifths Compromise
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Numbers and Storytelling
Hidden Stories
Aura of expertise and authority
Precision, accuracy, objectivity
Enumeration implies importance (competence)
Assertion of clear boundaries
Creates a community
Implies a solution
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The Rise of the Infographic
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Causation
What is causing climate change?
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Causation
Science
Quest to explain the world; find “the” cause
Politics
Assignment of responsibility
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Types of Causal Theories
Consequences
Actions Intended Unintended
Unguided Mechanical Cause Accidental Cause
Guided Intentional Cause Inadvertent Cause
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Accidental CauseUnintended consequences from unguided actionsExamples:
Natural disastersFateBad luck
Strong defenseAvoid blame
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Intentional Cause
Intended consequencesfrom guided actionExamples:
OppressionConspiricyKnown, but ignored, sideeffects“Bad apples”Blame the victim (hard)
Strong offense
Demand accountability
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Mechanical Cause
Intended consequences from unguided action
Examples:
Machines gone badEichmann Defense
Weak offense/defense
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Inadvertent Cause
Unintended consequences from guided action
Examples:
Unanticipated side effectsAvoidable ignoranceCarelessnessBlaming the victim (soft)
Weak offense/defense
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A Political Contest
Not just about finding “the” cause
Claimant
Show that previously-assumed natural cause is anintentional/inadvertent harm
Respondent
Claim strongest position possible, then blame shift, then take weakerposition, then claim inadvertent harm
Law and Science
Legitimize claims of causation
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A Political Contest
“In the polis, causal stories need to be fought for,defended, and sustained.” (Stone, 223)
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Using Causal Claims
Challenge or reinforcethe status quo
Assign responsibility andcost
Give authority to “fixers”
Create new alliances
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