dcf exercise

12
Note: $MM Assumptions Prj. 1 Sales Year 1 $110.0 Prj. 1 Capital Inv. $40.0 Prj. 1 Sales Growth R 10.0% Prj. 1 Discount Rate 10% Prj. 1 COGS Growth Ra 4.7% Prj. 1 Tax Rate 40.0% Prj. 1 OPEX/Sales % 20.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Sales $110.0 $121.0 $133.1 $146.4 COGS $65.0 $68.1 $71.3 $74.6 Net Sales $45.0 $52.9 $61.8 $71.8 Total OPEX $22.0 $24.2 $26.6 $29.3 EBITDA $23.0 $28.7 $35.2 $42.5 Taxes $9.2 $11.5 $14.1 $17.0 Capital Investment ### Operating Cash Flow ### $13.8 $17.2 $21.1 $25.5 NPV Project 1 $20.1 IRR Project 1 29.16%

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Page 1: DCF Exercise

Note: $MM

Assumptions Opex%/Sales

Prj. 1 Sales Year 1 $110.0 Prj. 1 Capital Inv. $40.0 Min

Prj. 1 Sales Growth Rate 10.0% Prj. 1 Discount Rate 10% 15%

Prj. 1 COGS Growth Rate 4.7% Prj. 1 Tax Rate 40.0%

Prj. 1 OPEX/Sales % 20.0% Capital Investment

$35

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 $40

$45

Sales $110.0 $121.0 $133.1 $146.4

COGS $65.0 $68.1 $71.3 $74.6 Net Sales $45.0 $52.9 $61.8 $71.8

Total OPEX $22.0 $24.2 $26.6 $29.3

EBITDA $23.0 $28.7 $35.2 $42.5 Taxes $9.2 $11.5 $14.1 $17.0

Capital Investment ($40.0)Operating Cash Flow ($40.0) $13.8 $17.2 $21.1 $25.5

NPV Project 1 $20.1

IRR Project 1 29.16%

Page 2: DCF Exercise

Sales Growth Rate COGS Growth Rate

Opex%/Sales 10.2% K2:K201 4.0% M2:M201

M-L Max 9.2% 3.5%

20% 23% 10.8% 4.0%

11.3% 4.2%

Capital Investment 12.0% 4.9%

11.2% 4.7%

10.1% 3.8%

9.1% 3.2%

9.2% 3.4%

11.3% 3.8%

10.2% 4.1%

10.1% 3.3%

11.1% 4.4%

11.2% 4.9%

10.5% 4.6%

9.8% 3.2%

10.3% 3.2%

10.6% 3.7%

9.7% 3.8%

10.7% 4.6%

9.3% 3.7%9.0% 3.3%11.6% 4.9%9.3% 4.0%9.4% 3.4%9.6% 3.8%

10.5% 3.9%

9.3% 3.3%

9.3% 3.6%

10.4% 3.4%

9.2% 3.1%

8.5% 3.6%

11.5% 4.5%

10.5% 4.3%

11.5% 4.4%9.8% 3.6%10.2% 4.1%10.9% 4.5%9.7% 3.3%9.1% 3.4%10.8% 4.3%11.4% 4.9%9.4% 3.3%

Page 3: DCF Exercise

9.9% 3.8%10.2% 3.4%10.1% 4.9%12.6% 4.7%11.4% 4.5%10.1% 3.7%10.6% 3.8%10.1% 4.1%9.4% 3.3%9.6% 3.4%11.1% 4.0%11.5% 4.7%10.1% 4.4%11.4% 5.0%10.3% 3.8%10.7% 5.0%10.4% 4.2%11.3% 4.5%11.3% 4.4%10.8% 3.4%10.0% 3.7%9.3% 3.3%13.1% 4.7%10.0% 3.8%9.7% 3.1%10.5% 4.9%12.0% 4.9%10.2% 3.7%10.1% 3.7%11.1% 4.8%10.2% 3.3%10.1% 3.3%10.1% 4.7%11.2% 4.9%10.4% 4.2%11.4% 4.6%12.5% 4.7%10.6% 3.9%9.8% 4.2%9.9% 4.0%9.5% 4.5%9.1% 3.2%9.2% 3.1%9.6% 3.2%10.8% 4.4%10.2% 4.4%9.5% 3.6%9.4% 3.7%8.3% 3.3%9.7% 3.8%11.1% 4.9%

Page 4: DCF Exercise

12.8% 5.0%9.6% 3.5%9.3% 3.3%10.0% 3.5%12.3% 5.0%10.0% 3.1%9.4% 3.7%10.0% 4.2%11.1% 4.3%10.5% 3.4%12.0% 4.7%10.3% 3.2%9.0% 3.2%11.0% 4.3%9.0% 3.8%9.6% 3.1%9.1% 3.9%9.7% 4.0%9.8% 3.8%10.4% 4.1%10.6% 4.7%11.1% 4.5%10.3% 4.6%10.1% 4.6%10.0% 4.2%9.4% 4.1%10.1% 4.1%10.7% 4.6%9.1% 3.5%11.2% 4.7%9.6% 3.2%12.0% 4.9%11.8% 4.4%12.0% 4.5%8.8% 3.1%10.9% 4.4%10.5% 3.7%11.0% 4.5%9.8% 4.1%10.5% 4.5%11.0% 4.1%9.5% 3.3%9.8% 3.2%9.0% 3.1%10.7% 4.1%10.0% 4.3%8.6% 3.3%9.9% 3.3%10.0% 3.8%11.4% 3.8%8.8% 3.7%

Page 5: DCF Exercise

9.7% 3.2%9.4% 3.2%9.8% 3.2%9.1% 4.0%11.9% 4.9%10.8% 4.2%11.1% 4.8%11.4% 4.0%11.3% 4.4%11.9% 4.8%12.5% 4.8%12.4% 4.8%10.4% 4.2%11.1% 4.0%10.7% 4.4%10.2% 4.3%11.4% 4.5%10.5% 4.1%10.6% 4.7%10.7% 3.7%11.1% 4.0%9.9% 3.8%10.3% 3.9%10.2% 4.8%11.5% 4.2%10.8% 4.4%9.3% 4.6%10.1% 3.7%10.2% 4.0%9.3% 3.2%10.7% 4.1%9.9% 4.1%10.9% 4.1%9.2% 3.2%11.3% 5.0%10.7% 3.8%9.3% 4.7%9.7% 3.5%10.3% 3.2%11.1% 3.8%11.7% 4.5%10.5% 4.3%10.2% 3.9%10.0% 4.0%10.1% 4.6%10.7% 3.8%8.3% 3.8%10.5% 4.8%10.2% 4.4%10.1% 4.1%10.9% 4.7%

Page 6: DCF Exercise

8.4% 3.3%9.7% 3.7%10.9% 4.0%9.6% 4.3%

Page 7: DCF Exercise

Note: $MM

Assumptions Opex%/Sales

Prj. 2 Sales Year 1 $120.0 Prj. 2 Capital Inv. $50.0 Min

Prj. 2 Sales Growth Rate 10.0% Prj. 2 Discount Rate 10% 18%

Prj. 2 COGS Growth Rate 5.0% Prj. 2 Tax Rate 40.0%

Prj. 2 OPEX/Sales % 20.0% Capital Investment

$45

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 $50

$55

Sales $120.0 $132.0 $145.2 $159.7

COGS $65.0 $68.3 $71.7 $75.2 Net Sales $55.0 $63.8 $73.5 $84.5

Total OPEX $24.0 $26.4 $29.0 $31.9

EBITDA $31.0 $37.3 $44.5 $52.5 Taxes $12.4 $14.9 $17.8 $21.0

Capital Investment ($50.0)Operating Cash Flow ($50.0) $18.6 $22.4 $26.7 $31.5

NPV Project 2 $27.0

IRR Project 2 30.82%

Page 8: DCF Exercise

COGS Growth Rate

Opex%/Sales 5.6% L2:L201

M-L Max 4.7%

20% 27% 4.8%

4.3%

Capital Investment 4.6%

5.5%

5.7%

5.9%

4.2%

5.3%

4.8%

5.8%

5.3%

4.9%

5.1%

4.2%

4.8%

4.1%

4.6%

5.1%

4.9%4.7%5.5%5.1%4.6%5.5%

5.2%

5.8%

5.8%

5.6%

4.1%

5.5%

4.5%

4.2%

5.5%5.1%4.4%4.7%4.8%5.7%4.4%5.0%5.4%4.3%5.9%4.8%5.2%

Page 9: DCF Exercise

5.4%5.8%4.9%6.0%5.1%5.3%5.2%5.0%4.3%5.4%5.9%4.5%4.8%5.7%4.5%5.7%5.6%4.1%4.6%5.8%4.1%5.2%4.1%5.4%5.1%4.6%5.2%5.7%4.4%5.5%4.3%5.8%4.4%4.1%5.9%5.2%5.6%5.6%5.1%4.6%4.0%4.2%5.2%4.3%5.4%4.6%5.4%5.8%5.3%4.6%5.9%4.4%4.2%5.2%

Page 10: DCF Exercise

4.8%4.4%4.8%4.6%4.0%4.5%5.9%5.3%5.6%4.8%4.7%4.4%5.1%5.4%5.5%4.8%6.0%4.7%4.5%4.7%4.8%4.5%5.3%4.9%4.3%4.4%5.6%4.9%5.9%5.7%4.9%5.3%5.0%5.0%5.9%5.4%5.4%5.3%5.8%4.8%5.8%5.8%5.7%5.9%5.1%5.8%4.3%4.5%5.0%5.5%4.4%6.0%4.6%4.2%

Page 11: DCF Exercise

4.4%5.5%4.6%5.6%5.0%5.1%5.4%5.0%4.0%5.5%4.8%5.0%5.2%4.3%5.6%5.9%5.9%5.5%5.7%4.8%4.4%5.9%5.5%5.4%5.6%5.5%4.6%5.6%6.0%4.2%4.9%5.8%5.0%4.3%5.7%4.9%5.0%5.6%4.8%4.1%5.0%4.7%4.2%4.7%4.7%