DCF1234567DCF Valuation

1User's guide1. Plug the cost of capital and the perpetual growth rate. Choose the perpetual growth rate carefully. A rate superior to 3% is not realistic as it is greater than the long-term growthrate of the economy as a whole2. Complete the business plan3. Plug the normalised cash flow assumptionsPlug the numbers in the yellow cells only

2Main assumptions

Weighted Average Cost of Capital10.0%

Perpetual Growth Rate1.5%

3Simplified Business Plan

In EUR M20022003e2004e2005e2006e2007e2008e2009eNormalised

Profit and loss statement

Turnover5,0005,2505,5135,7885,9626,1416,3256,4206,516EBITDA6757357868398799219659951,010- Depreciation and amortization(238)(250)(255)(261)(270)(280)(295)(310)(315)= EBIT437485531578609641670685695

Balance Sheet

Fixed assets2,5002,6252,7572,8942,9813,0713,1633,2103,258+ Working Capital500525551579596614632642652= Capital Employed3,0003,1503,3083,4733,5773,6853,7953,8523,910

4Financial ratios and normalised cash flow assumptions

20022003e2004e2005e2006e2007e2008e2009eNormalised

Growth rate-5.0%5.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%1.5%1.5%EBITDA Margin13.5%14.0%14.3%14.5%14.7%15.0%15.3%15.5%15.5%EBIT Margin8.7%9.2%9.6%10.0%10.2%10.4%10.6%10.7%10.7%After tax EBIT Margin (tax rate of 35%)5.7%6.0%6.3%6.5%6.6%6.8%6.9%6.9%6.9%After tax return on capital employed (tax rate of 35%)9.5%10.0%10.4%10.8%11.1%11.3%11.5%11.6%11.6%(1)Fixed assets / Turnover ratio50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%Working capital / Turnover ratio10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Asset turnover1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x1.7x

(1) Be careful ! An after tax return on capital employed significantly greater than the cost of capital is not realistic in the long run, as it represents the return the company will continue to generate to infinity

5Free cash flows calculation

In EUR M20022003e2004e2005e2006e2007e2008e2009eNormalised

EBIT485531578609641670685695 - Corporate income tax (35%)(170)(186)(202)(213)(224)(235)(240)(243)- Depreciation and amortization250255261270280295310315- Change in working capital(25)(26)(28)(17)(18)(18)(10)(10)- Capital expenditures(375)(387)(399)(357)(370)(387)(358)(363)

Free cash flow165188210292309326388394

6Free cash flows present value

In EUR M20022003e2004e2005e2006e2007e2008e2009eNormatif

Discounting factor0.910.830.750.680.620.560.51Free cash flow present value150155158199192184199Terminal value2,380

Total present value3,617