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{FILE TITLE} GBS 201

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DeDevelopment Neg

CFJMP Lab’s DeDev File

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[AUTHOR NAME

Uniqueness

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1NC Collapse InevitableEconomic collapse is inevitable – peak oil, climate change, foodand wate sca cit! – continued g owth leads to widesp eadinstabilit! – t ansition now solves qualit! of life and inequalit!"hmed #$% - Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Develo !ent "IPRD#$ an inde endentthin% tan% focused on the study of violent con&ict$ and tau'ht at the De art!ent of International Relations$(niversity of )ussex "*+, $ Dr. /afee0 Mosadde1 2h!ed$ 3he 4uardian$ 5)cientists vindicate 6Li!its to 4ro7th6 8ur'e invest!ent in 6circular econo!y69$ htt :;;777.the'uardian.co!;environ!ent;earth-insi'ht;*+, ;

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[AUTHOR NAMEas usual/ e(ploitation of the wo ld/s fossil fuels could potentiall!t igge unawa! global wa ming that $ in several centuries or thousands of years$pe manentl! dest o! the planet/s capacit! to host life) Des ite this verdict$the epo t a gues that neither a 4collapse4 of the current structure of civilisation,no the 4e(tinction4 of the human species a e unavoidable) "fundamental eo ganisation of the wa! societies p oduce, manageand consume esou ces could suppo t a new hi'h-technolo'y civilisation $ butthis 7ould entail a ne7 B ci cula econom!4 p emised on wide&scale p acticesof ec!cling across roduction and consu! tion chains$ a 7holesale shift to rene7able ener'y$application of ag o&ecological methods to food p oduction, and 7ith allthat , ve ! di

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NC . owth Unsustainable.lobal collapse is inevitable & the cu ent consumption modelis unsustainable and we will eventuall! un out of esou ces &tech doesn/t solve and we need a t ansition now & that/s

.ilding

. owth is the unive ses wa! of making equilib ium –eme gence of comple( civili>ation is 0ust a manifestation of thelaws of ph!sics?o owic>, @1% - David Koro7ic0 is a hysicist 7ho studies the interactionsbet7een econo!ics$ ener'y$ cli!ate chan'e$ food security$ su ly chains$ andco! lexity. David is an inde endent consultant. e 7as a !inisterial a oint!entto the council of Co!har$ Ireland’s sustainable develo !ent co!!ission. e 7ashead of research at 3he Ecolo'y Foundation$ and is on the executive co!!ittee ofFeasta$ 3he Foundation for the Econo!ics of )ustainability: a 3hin% 3an%$ "David$

5 o7 to be 3ra ed: 2n Intervie7 7ith David Koro7ic09$ Resilience$htt :;;777.resilience.or';stories;*+, -+=-, ;ho7-to-be-tra ed-an-intervie7-7ith-david-%oro7ic0#;;Roetlin

Ahe e@s an even b oade pe spective ) Ahe g owth of comple( o gani>ationBsta , planet, life, human social o gani>ation can spontaneousl! eme ge whe ethe e a e const ained ene g! g adients) Ahe e(istence of suchene g! g adients, and indeed the a ow of time, depend upon thethe mod!namic conditions at the beginning of the unive se)Comple(it! g owth is the unive ses optimal wa! of 'ndingequilib ium) om this point of view, the eme gence of ou comple(global civili>ation and its inevitable collapse is 0ust the laws ofph!sics being made manifest th ough us) Ahe b oad point he e isthat g owth and collapse is a much mo e fundamental p ocess thancapitalism, the debt&based moneta ! s!stem o technologicalchange, as the histo ! of collapsed civili>ations and e(tinct speciescan attest) It@s pa t of us, pa t of life .

Economic g owth is unsustainable – mine al depletion andindust ial ag – tech and substitutions fail, onl! t ansition nowsolves"hmed #$% - Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Develo !ent "IPRD#$ aninde endent thin% tan% focused on the study of violent con&ict$ and tau'ht at the De art!ent of InternationalRelations$ (niversity of )ussex "*+, $ Dr. /afee0 Mosadde1 2h!ed$ 3he 4uardian$ 5Exhaustion of chea !ineralresources is terrafor!in' Earth 8 scienti@c re ort9$ htt :;;777.the'uardian.co!;environ!ent;earth-insi'ht;*+, ;

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[AUTHOR NAME" new landma k scienti'c epo t dra7in' on the 7or% of the 7orld6s leadin' !ineral ex ertsfo ecasts that indust ial civilsation/s e(t action of c itical mine alsand fossil fuel resource s is eaching the limits of economic feasibilit!,and could lead to a collapse of ke! inf ast uctu e s unless new wa!sto manage esou ces a e implemented) 3he eer-revie7ed study 8 the ==rd Re ort to the Clubof Ro!e 8 is authored by Prof ('o >ardi of the De art!ent of Earth )ciences at the (niversity of Florence$ 7here he teacheshysical che!istry. It includes s ecialist contributions fro! @fteen senior scientists and ex erts across the @elds of 'eolo'y$a'riculture$ ener'y$ hysics$ econo!ics$ 'eo'ra hy$ trans ort$ ecolo'y$ industrial ecolo'y$ and biolo'y$ a!on' others. 3he Club ofRo!e is a )7iss-based 'lobal thin% tan% founded in , A consistin' of current and for!er heads of state$ (/ bureaucrats$'overn!ent o?cials$ di lo!ats$ scientists$ econo!ists and business leaders. Its latest re ort$ to be released on ,*th June$ conductsa co! rehensive overvie7 of the history and evolution of !inin'$ and ar'ues that the increasin' costs of !ineral extraction due to

ollution$ 7aste$ and de letion of lo7-cost sources 7ill eventually !a%e the resent structure of industrial civilisation unsustainable.Much of the re ort6s focus is on the conce t of Ener'y Return on Ener'y Invested "ER EI#$ 7hich !easures the a!ount of ener'y

needed to extract resources. hile !a%in' clear that B7e are not runnin' out of any !ineral$B the epo t 'ndsthat 4e(t action is becoming !ore and mo e di=cult as the eas! o es a edepleted) o e ene g! is needed to maintain past p oduction ates $and even !ore is needed to increase the!.B 2s a conse1uence$ des ite lar'e 1uantities of re!ainin' !ineral reserves: B Ahep oduction of man! mine al commodities appea s to be on the ve geof decline G 7e !ay be 'oin' throu'h a century-lon' cycle that 7ill lead to the disa earance of !inin' as 7e %no7 it.BAhe last decade has seen the wo ld shift to mo e e(pensive anddi=cult to e(t act fossil fuel resources , in the fo m of unconventionalfo ms of oil and gas $which have much lowe levels of E23EI thanconventional oil) Even with technological b eakth oughs in frac%in' andassociated d illing techniques, this t end is unlikel! to eve sesigni'cantl!) 2 for!er senior executive in 2ustralia6s oil$ 'as and coal industry$ Ian Dunlo $ describes in the re ort ho7frac%in' can rise roduction Bra idly to a ea%$ but it then declines ra idly$ too$ often by A+ to ercent over the @rst three years.B

3his !eans that often Bseveral thousand 7ellsB are needed for a sin'le shale lay to rovide Ba return on invest!ent.B 3he avera'eER EI to run Bindustrial society as 7e %no7 itB is about A to ,+. )hale oil and 'as$ tar sands$ and coal sea! 'as are all Bat$ or belo7$that level if their full costs are accounted forG 3hus frac%in'$ in ener'y ter!s$ 7ill not rovide a source on 7hich to develo

sustainable 'lobal society.B 3he Club of Ro!e re ort also a lies the ER EI analysis to extraction of coal and uraniu!. 9o ld

coal p oduction7ill ea% by *+ + latest$ and

could peak as ea l! as 7 7) () coal

roduction has already ea%ed$ and futu e p oduction will be dete mined la gel! b!China) >ut ising domestic demand f om the latte , and f om India,could gene ate highe p ices and sho tages in the near future: B3herefore$ there is de@nitelyno sco e for substitutin' for oil and 'as 7ith coal.B 2s for 'lobal uraniu! su lies$ the re ort says that cu entu anium p oduction f om mines is al ead! insu=cient to fuele(isting nuclea eacto s $ a 'a bein' @lled by recovery of uraniu! !ilitary stoc% iles and old nuclear7arheads. hile the roduction 'a could be closed at current levels of de!and$ a wo ldwide e(pansion ofnuclea powe would be unsustainable due to 4giganticinvestments4 needed) Re ort contributor Michael Ditt!ar$ a nuclear hysicist at CER/$ the Euro ean

r'anisation for /uclear Research$ ar'ues that despite la ge quantities of u anium in theEa th/s c ust, onl! a 4limited numbe s of deposits4 a e4concent ated enough to be p o'tabl! mined)4 ining lessconcent ated deposits would equi e 4fa mo e ene g! than themined u anium could ultimatel! p oduce)4 3he risin' costs of uraniu! !inin'$ a!on' othercosts$ has !eant that nuclear o7er invest!ent is ta erin' o . F oposals to e(t act u anium f omseawate a e cu entl! 4useless4 because 4the ene g! needed toe(t act and p ocess u anium f om seawate would be about the

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[AUTHOR NAMEsame as the ene g! that could be obtained b! the same u aniumusing the cu ent nuclear technolog! .B 3herefore 7ithin this decade$ the re ort forecasts an BunavoidableB

roduction decline fro! existin' uraniu! !ines. () 4eolo'ical )urvey data analysed by the re ort sho7s that ch omium,mol!bdenum, tungsten, nickel, platinum&palladium, coppe , >inc,cadmium, titanium, and tin will face peak p oduction followed b!declines within this centu !) 3his is because decla ed ese ves a e often Bmo eh!pothetical than measu ed4 $ !eanin' the 4assumption of mine albonan>as G a e fa emoved f om ealit!)4 In articular$ the re ort hi'hli'hts the fate of co er$lithiu!$ nic%el and 0inc. Physicist Prof Rui /a!orado Rosa roinc $ 7hich are used toco!bat iron and steel corrosion and for electricity stora'e in batteries$ also could face p oduction peaksin 0ust 4a few decades4 8 thou'h nic%el !i'ht be extended so!e A+ years 8 accordin' to en'ineer and !etalss ecialist Phili e >ihoux: B3he easily ex loited art of the reserves has been already re!oved$ and so it 7ill be increasin'ly di?cultand ex ensive to invest in and ex loit nic%el and 0inc !ines.B 9hile substitution could help in !anycases$ it would also be costl! and unce tain, equi ing conside ableinvestment) Perha s the most ala ming t end in mine al depletionconce ns phospho ous, which is c itical to fertilise soil and sustainag icultu e . hile hos horous reserves are not runnin' out$ ph!sical, ene g! and economicfacto s mean onl! a small pe centage of it can be mined . C op !ield on

+ ercent of the 7orld6s arable land is al ead! limited b! econo!ical phospho usavailabilit!) In the Club of Ro!e study$ hysicist Patric% Dery says that several ma0o egions of roc%phosphate p oduction 8 such as the island of /auru and the ()$ 7hich is the 7orld6s second lar'est roducer 8a e ost- ea% and no7 declining, with global phospho ous supplies otentiallybecoming insu=cient to meet ag icultu al demand within 57&%7!ea s . 3he roble! can otentially be solved as hos horous can be recycled. " arallel t end documentedin the epo t b! Food and 2'ricultural r'anisation " "3 # a'rono!ist 3ou@c El 2s!ar is anaccele ating decline in land p oductivit! due to indust ialag icultu al methods $ 7hich are de'radin' the soil by as !uch as +N in so!e areas. Prof Ra

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[AUTHOR NAMECa!brid'e (niversity6s Pro'ra!!e for )ustainability Leadershi $ February *+,*

3ED 3al%s$ 53he Earth is full9$htt :;;777.ted.co!;tal%s; aul 'ildin' the earth is full.ht!l #

Let !e be'in 7ith four 7ords that 7ill rovide the context for this 7ee%$ four 7ords that 7ill co!e to de@ne thiscentury. ere they are: Ahe Ea th is full . It6s full of us, it/s full of ou stu! idea && the c a>! idea being that we can have in'nite g owthon a 'nite planet . 2nd I6! here to tell you the e! eror has no clothes. Ahat the c a>! ideais 0ust that, it is c a>!, and with the Ea th full, it/s game ove . Co!e on$!ou/ e thinking) Ahat/s not possible) Aechnolog! is ama>ing) Feoplea e innovative) Ahe e a e so man! wa!s we can imp ove the wa! wedo things . e can surely sort this out. 3hat6s all true. ell$ it6s !ostly true. e are certainly a!a0in'$ and 7ere'ularly solve co! lex roble!s 7ith a!a0in' creativity. )o if our roble! 7as to 'et the hu!an econo!y do7nfro! , + ercent to ,++ ercent of the Earth6s ca acity$ 7e could do that. Ahe p oblem is we/ e

0ust wa ming up this g owth engine) 9e plan to take this highl!&st essed econom! and make it twice as big and then make it foutimes as big && not in some distant futu e, but in less than %7 !ea s $ inthe life ti!e of !ost of you. China lans to be there in

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[AUTHOR NAMEkeep social stabilit! . I @nd this ar'u!ent fascinatin'$ as thou'h 7e can %ind of bend the rules of

hysics to suit our needs. It6s li%e the Earth doesn6t care 7hat 7e need. othe natu e doesn/tnegotiateH she 0ust sets ules and desc ibes consequences . 2nd these arenot esoteric li!its. Ahis is about food and wate , soil and climate, the basicp actical and economic foundations of ou lives . )o the idea that wecan smoothl! t ansition to a highl!&e=cient, sola &powe ed,knowledge&based econom! transfor!ed by science and technolo'y so that nine billion eo lecan live in *+ + a life of abundance and di'ital do7nloads is a delusion . It6s not that it6s not ossible tofeed$ clothe and house us all and have us live decent lives. It certainly is. >ut the idea that we cangentl! g ow the e with a few mino hiccups is 0ust w ong, and it/sdange ousl! w ong, because it means we/ e not getting ead! fowhat/s eall! going to happen . )ee 7hat ha ens when !ou ope ate as!stem past its limits and then keep on going at an eve &accele ating ate is that the s!stem stops wo king and b eaks down)"nd that/s what will happen to us . Many of you 7ill be thin%in'$ but surely 7e can still stothis. If it6s that bad$ 7e6ll react. Let6s ut it is alsoti!e that 7e ended our denial and reco'ni0ed that 7e6re not actin'$ 7e6re not close to actin' and 7e6re not 'oin' toact until this crisis hits the econo!y. 2nd that6s 7hy the end of 'ro7th is the central issue and the event that 7eneed to 'et ready for. o when does this t ansition begin O hen does this brea%do7nbe'inO In !y vie7$ it is well unde wa! . I %no7 !ost eo le don6t see it that 7ay. e tend to loo% at the7orld$ not as the inte'rated syste! that it is$ but as a series of individual issues. e see the ccu y rotests$ 7e

see s iralin' debt crises$ 7e see 'ro7in' ine1uality$ 7e see !oney6s in&uence on olitics$ 7e see resourceconstraint$ food and oil rices. >ut 7e see$ !ista%enly$ each of these issues as individual roble!s to be solved. Infact$ it/s the s!stem in the painful p ocess of b eaking down && ous!stem, of debt&fueled economic g owth, of ine, @1% - David Koro7ic0 is a hysicist 7ho studies the interactionsbet7een econo!ics$ ener'y$ cli!ate chan'e$ food security$ su ly chains$ andco! lexity. David is an inde endent consultant. e 7as a !inisterial a oint!entto the council of Co!har$ Ireland’s sustainable develo !ent co!!ission. e 7ashead of research at 3he Ecolo'y Foundation$ and is on the executive co!!ittee ofFeasta$ 3he Foundation for the Econo!ics of )ustainability: a 3hin% 3an%$ "David$5 o7 to be 3ra ed: 2n Intervie7 7ith David Koro7ic09$ Resilience$htt :;;777.resilience.or';stories;*+, -+=-, ;ho7-to-be-tra ed-an-intervie7-7ith-david-%oro7ic0#;;Roetlin

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-19/how-to-be-trapped-an-interview-with-david-korowicz)//Roetlinhttp://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-19/how-to-be-trapped-an-interview-with-david-korowicz)//Roetlinhttp://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-19/how-to-be-trapped-an-interview-with-david-korowicz)//Roetlinhttp://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-03-19/how-to-be-trapped-an-interview-with-david-korowicz)//Roetlin

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[AUTHOR NAME

DK: It’s a 'ood idea$ sort of. It’s art of our 7orldvie7$ !ethodolo'ies$ ourinstitutional structures$ it’s 7hat our society is ada tive to. Eco nomic g owth isnot 0ust an indicato , it ep esents and sometimes obscu es acomple( st uctu al dependenc!) If we don@t have it the e a e ma0osocial, economic and political implications) If we want all the thingswe take fo g anted to continue, !es, of cou se we should e&sta tg owth) 3he roble! is that continued economic g owth is notnecessa il! ou choice) I suspect we a e at the limits to g owthabout now "I 7on’t ar'ue over a fe7 years#. ur 'nancial and moneta !s!stem $ 7hose ties of trust and ex ectation ani!ate the 7orld in an act of faith isinc easingl! unstable because it has fa ove &p omised what caneve be delive ed H the oil "and thus food# &o7s that !aintain 'lobal socio-econo!ic or'ani0ation are ea%in'H and increasin'ly the eut to f ame such ideas

as solutions to p oblems is to mis& ep esent ou p edicament $whichis at best a p ocess of isk management . hat one hears far less of are thei! licit ris%s and uncertainties in such ro osals. 3his is not to say they should notbe art of dyna!ic ris% !ana'e!ent but that in our resent context they cannot bede-ris%ed or outco!es !ade certain. Just one as ect of this$ for exa! le$ is

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[AUTHOR NAME

massive e e(ivit! isk $ that is$ actions to ave t a c isis ma! end upspa king the c isis b! causing p e&emptive behavio change) Further!ore to underta%e such ris% !ana'e!ent decisions one needs tounde stand o intuit the natu e of contempo a ! dependenc! – what

could be lost and how fast it could all happen especiall! if things goaw ! 8 and very fe7 !e!bers of the ublic$ oliticians and olicy!a%ers really do.r to ut it !ore directly$ if you 7ant to do radical sur'ery on the !onetary syste!$

7hat’s your food security lannin' li%eO 3his is articularly acute for anybody tryin'to do deal 7ith lar'e-scale syste!ic ris% 8 whateve is done, the e a e fag eate downside isks than upside ones $ 7hich understandably !a%es!onetary o?cials conservative. Ahe e@s a vast diing) ur redica!ent and the tra'edy ofatte! tin' chan'e is: 'iven ti!e and resource constraints and the reality that 7ede end u on a de-locali0ed net7or%ed syste! 7ithout central control$ ho7 do 7echan'e the syste! 7hile ensurin' 7e do not colla se its essential functions.Dec easing global esilience and the inc easing comple(it!,inte dependence, tight coupling and the speed of the p ocesses wedepend upon make this a fundamentall! unce tain, dauntingl!comple( and ve ! dange ous set of challenges) o we dig in becausewe can@t dig out) 9e g asp fo g owth, we bu! time and kick thecan, and with each step become mo e vulne able) o the idea thatg owth is a good o bad idea is a bit beside the point& we@ e notgoing to get it fo much longe , no is the e much we can do aboutit)

.lobal economic decline is inevitable & esou ces a e 'nite anddwindlingG ent 11 "Jason$ fre1uent contributor to Countercurrents$ ex ert on o ulationand de!o'ra hic issues$ 5Cessation f 4ro7th: Qoluntary 2nd Coercive Po ulationControlB$ July ,A *+,,$ htt :;;777.countercurrents.or';brent,A+ ,,.ht! #

,. 3he Ea th is 'nite in si0e. *. Po ulation and economic g owth must cease ) In'nite o ulation and;or economic g owth cannot occu on the 'nite Ea th .=. >oth o ulation and the econom! g ow in a compound$e(ponential manne .

http://www.countercurrents.org/brent180711.htmhttp://www.countercurrents.org/brent180711.htm

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[AUTHOR NAME. Co! ound;ex onential 'ro7th is the most powe ful fo ce in the unive se, it

ove whelms eve !thing . ) If an!thing we e to g ow at the compoundg owth ate of one pe cent pe !ea it would double in about +7!ea sH inc ease b! a facto of fou in 1%7 !ea sH a facto of eight in

17 !ea s and a facto of 1,777 "actually ,$+* # in ++ years. If 'ro7th 7ere to continue at thesa!e co! ound rate for an additional ++ years$ total of ,$ ++ years$ it 7ould increase by a factor of , !illion andif 'ro7th continued at the sa!e rate for a total of *$,++ years the factor 7ould be , billion. 2t the extre!ely s!allrate of 'ro7th of one 1uarter of one ercent "+.++* # it 7ould ta%e about *$A++ years$ less ti!e than fro! theconstruction of the yra!ids until today$ for either the econo!y or the o ulation to 'ro7 by a factor of 'reaterthan ,$+++. 2nd *$A++ years is al!ost an in@nitely s!all eriod of ti!e 7hen co! ared to the , + !illion yearsthat the dinosaurs ruled the earth. . )ince co! ound;ex onential 'ro7th is so o7erful$ both theeconom! and the o ulation of the wo ld must cease thei g owth in the ve !nea futu e) I can state 7ith al!ost absolute certainty that if either 7ere to 'ro7 at the co! ound rate ofone ercent er year 'ro7th 7ill cease no later than , + years fro! today as such a 'ro7th rate 7ould cause bothof the! to increase by a factor of four and the Ea th could not suppo t a o ulation four ti!es as'reat as the resent o ulation or a wo ld econom! fou times as g eat as thecu ent wo ld econom! . . Ahe esou ces used b! humanit! can be

divided into two g oups, non enewable and enewable) G! de'nitionnon enewable esou ces a e 'nite and will eventuall! be used up b!humanit!) an!, if not most, enewable esou ces a e being used upb! humanit! faste than natu e can eplace them and, the efo e,the! also must be conside ed non enewable . A. Recyclin'$ substitution ofone esou ce fo anothe esou ce, new technologies $ environ!entalis!$ andany other action ta%en by hu!anity 7ill not pe mit continuous compound economicand$o population g owth) "lte native ene g! esou ces will notpe mit continuous co! ound o ulation and;or economic g owth . u!anity has 7ithdra7nfro! the Earth the !ost easily accessible resources 7hich the Earth can rovide ) In the futu e

esou ces will become mo e e(pensive and di=cult to obtain as the!will be substantiall! less accessible and 7ill be !ore di?cult to rocess into usable a for!.. 3he concept of obtaining esou ces f om e(t ate est ial planets o

t ansfe ing pa t of humanit! to e(t ate est ial planets is a non&wo kable fallac!)

ustained economic g owth is impossible in the futu e –laund ! list of issuesTrainer 11 (Ted, University of New South Wales, Australia, "The radical implications of a zerogrowth economy", Septem er ! #$$,http%&&www'paecon'net& A)*eview&issue+ &Trainer+ 'pdf-

Ahe planet is now acing into man! massive p oblems, an! one ofwhich could b ing about the collapse of civili>ation before lon'. Ahe mostse ious a e the dest uction of the envi onment, the dep ivation ofthe Ahi d 9o ld, esou ce depletion, con ict and wa $ and the brea%do7n ofsocial cohesion . Ahe main cause of all these p oblems is ove &p oduction

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[AUTHOR NAMEand ove &consumption – people a e t !ing to live at levels ofaMuence that a e fa too high to be sustained o fo all to sha e)3u societ! is g ossl! unsustainable – the levels of consumption,

esou ce use and ecological impact we have in ich count ies li%e 2ustraliaa e fa be!ond levels that could be kept up fo long o e(tended toall people . et al!ost everyone’s su re!e 'oal is to increase , 3his a er elaborates and extends adiscussion of the!es ublished in 3he International Journal of Inclusive De!ocracy$ Fall$ *+,+H see 3rainer *+,+a.

,real-7orld econo!ics revie7$ issue no. !aterial livin' standards and the 4DP and roduction andconsu! tion$ invest!ent$ trade$ etc.$ as fast as ossible and 7ithout any li!it in si'ht. Ahe e is noelement in ou suicidal condition that is mo e impo tant than thismindless obsession with accele ating the main facto causing thecondition . 3he follo7in' oints drive ho!e the !a'nitude of the overshoot. S If the * billionpeople we will have on ea th within about 67 !ea s we e to use

esou ces at the pe capita ate of the ich count ies, annualesou ce p oduction would have to be about 8 times as g eat as it is

now . S If * billion people we e to have a No th "me ican diet wewould need about %)6 billion ha of c opland, but the e a e onl! 1)%billion ha of c opland on the planet) S 9ate esou ces a e sca ce anddwindling . hat 7ill the situation be if billion eo le try to use 7ater as 7e in rich countries do$ 7hile the'reenhouse roble! reduces 7ater resources. S Ahe wo ld@s 'she ies a e in se ioust ouble now, most of them ove 'shed and in decline . hat ha ens if billion

eo le try to eat @sh at the rate 2ustralian’s do no7O S eve al mine al and otheesou ces a e likel! to be ve ! sca ce soon $ includin' 'alliu!$ indiu!$ heliu!$ and

there are 7orries about co er$ 0inc$ silver and hos horous. S 3il and gas a e likel! to be indecline soon, and la gel! unavailable in the second half of thecentu !) If * billion we e to consume oil at the 2ustralian er ca ita rate$ wo ld

demand would be about 6 times as g eat as it is now) Ahese iousness of this is e(t eme, given the heav! dependence of ousociet! on liquid fuels . S 2ecent 4 ootp int4 anal!sis indicates that ittakes 8 ha of p oductive land to p ovide wate , ene g!, settlementa ea and food fo one pe son living in "ust alia . " orld ildlife Fund$ *++ .# oif * billion people we e to live as we do about + billion ha ofp oductive land would be needed) Gut that is about 17 times all theavailable p oductive land on the planet . S Ahe most distu binga gument is to do with the g eenhouse p oblem) It is ve ! likel! thatin o de to stop the ca bon content of the atmosphe e ising to

dange ous levels C3 emissions will have to be totall! eliminated b!767 " ansen says *+=+#. " ansen$ *++ $ Meinschausen et al.$ *++ .# .eosequest ation can@tenable this $ if only because it can only ca ture about A N of the +N of e!issions that co!e fro!stationary sources li%e o7er stations. 3hese %inds of @'ures !a%e it abundantly clear that ich wo ldmate ial Jliving standa dsK a e g ossl! unsustainable) e are livin' in 7aysthat it is i! ossible for all to share. e are not

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[AUTHOR NAMEimplications of g owth Ahe above 'gu es efe to the p esentsituation, but that does not de'ne the p oblem we face) Ahep oblem is what will the situation be in futu e given thedete mination to inc ease p oduction and consumption continuousl!and 7ithout li!itO 2t least =N .a. econo!ic 'ro7th is de!anded and usually achieved in this society. If 2ustraliahad =N .a. increase in out ut to *+ + and by then all billion eo le ex ected had risen to the !aterial livin'standards 2ustralians 7ould have$ the wo ld would be p oducing almost 7 times asmuch as it does toda!) et the p esent level is ala mingl!unsustainable .

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[AUTHOR NAME

A ansition

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[AUTHOR NAME

1NC A ansition

Econ collapse c eates a mindset shift towa ds small localcivili>ations – this solves the envi onment and wa globall!-ewis ? Chris . Le7is$ Ph.D. (niversity of Colorado at >oulder "Chris $ 53heCo!in' 2'e of )carcity: Preventin' Mass Death and 4enocide in the 37enty-FirstCentury9 . 8 . #;;Roetlin

9ith the collapse of global indust ial civili>ation, smalle , autono!ous ,local and egional civili>ations $ cultures$ and olities will eme ge) 9e can

educe the th eat of mass death and genocide that will su el!accompan! this collapse b! encou aging the c eation and g owth ofsustainable, self&su=cient egional polities . John Cobb has already !adea case for ho7 this !ay 7or% in the (nited )tates and ho7 it is 7or%in' in Kerala$India. "fte the collapse of global indust ial civili>ation, i st andAhi d 9o ld peoples won/t have the mate ial esou ces, biologicalcapital, and ene g! and human esou ces to e&establish globalindust ial civili>ation) o ced b! economic necessit! to becomedependent on local esou ces and ecos!stems fo thei su vival,peoples th oughout the wo ld will wo k to conse ve and esto ethei envi onments) 3hose societies that destroy their local environ!ents andecono!ies$ as !odern eo le so often do$ 7ill the!selves face colla se and ruin.

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[AUTHOR NAME

E(ts – A ansition ?e!

9ithout a adical change in ou societal foundation thea= mative will neve be able to solve – consume &capitalistsociet! does not allow fo a sustainable futu e – the onl!chance fo solvenc! is dedevelopment – tu ns caseA aine , @7+ &)enior Lecturer in )ociolo'y$ )chool of )ocial or%$ (niversity of/e7 )outh ale "3ed$ 5Rene7able Ener'y: /o )olution for Consu!er )ociety9$Inclusive De!ocracy$htt :;;777.inclusivede!ocracy.or';

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[AUTHOR NAMEAhe onl! wa! out of this alar!in' and ra idly deterioratin' situation is tomove to some kind of imple 9a! V W$ 7hich Cha ter ,, of Rene7ableEner'y discusses at len'th. Ahis must involve non&aMuent "but 1uitesu?cient# mate ial living standa ds, mostl! small, highl! self&su=cient local economies . Economic s!stems unde social cont oland not d iven b! ma ket fo ces o the p o't motive and highl!coope ative and pa ticipato ! s!stems) 3bviousl!, such adicals!stemic changes could not be made without p ofound change invalues and wo ld view, awa! f om some of the most fundamentalelements in 9este n cultu e $ es ecially to do 7ith co! etitive$ ac1uisitiveindividualis!. 3here are 'ood reasons for thin%in' that 7e have neither the 7it northe 7ill to face u to chan'es of this order$ es ecially 'iven that they are not on thea'enda of o?cial or ublic discussion. 2 !a

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[AUTHOR NAME

but it 7ill be ar'ued that the ma0o global p oblems facing us cannot besolved unless seve al fundamental s!stems and st uctu es withinconsume &capitalist societ! a e adicall! emade . hat is re1uired is!uch 'reater social chan'e than estern society has under'one in several hundred

years. >efore o erin' su ort for these clai!s it is i! ortant to s%etch the 'eneral5li!its to 'ro7th9 situation confrontin' us. Ahe magnitude and se iousnessof the global esou ce and envi onmental p oblem is not gene all!app eciated . nly 7hen this is 'ras ed is it ossible to understand that the socialchan'es re1uired !ust be hu'e$ radical and far reachin'. 3he initial clai! bein'ar'ued here "and detailed in 3rainer *+,+b# is that consume &capitalistsociet! cannot be efo med o '(edH it has to be la gel! sc appedand emade along quite di

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC indset hiftindset shift wo ks

.Opel %$ 8 - Maerlin o?ce of the u ertal Institute for Cli!ate$ Environ!ent andEner'y. er research focuses on syste! transfor!ations and ne7 ros erity !odels. Precedin' this ost she hel edstart u the orld Future Council and later directed its Future Justice ro'ra! 7ith a focus on the re resentation offuture 'enerations and lon'-ter!is! in current 'overnance structures. Maation p ocesses in which the collectiveimagina ! and na atives about life, societ! and desi able futu esp ovide the efe ence f amewo k . )o what happens if this efe encef amewo k becomes unconvincing or even unbelievable 8 as it seems to bethe case with the na ative of continuous economic g owthP Itcauses a lot of confusion , mist ust, politici>ation, fea and – oppo tunit! fochange) Ahe latte is what the ost'ro7th$ de&g owth and beyond 4DPmovement is aiming at, as well as bi' sections of the eme gingsustainabilit! t ansfo mation esea ch communit! and g oupscalling fo st ong sustainabilit! . I 7ant to hi'hli'ht that the ove a chingsto ies and ationales fo change $ as 7ell as the values$ rinci les and rules for its reali0ationn$a e ve ! aligned . 9hat we see eme ging quali'es fo a pa adigmshift cutting ac oss theo ! and p actice which is a high leve agepoint fo s!stem t ansfo mations . 3he ter! 5 pa adigm shiftK o iginatesf om the philosoph! of science and usually references 3ho!as Kuhn as the ori'inal thin%er inthis context. In scienti@c ter!s$ pa adigms comp ise assumptions that a eepistemological "7hat 7e can %no7#$ ontological "7hat can be said to exist and ho7 7e 'rou it#and methodological "7hich 'uideline fra!e7or% for solvin' a roble! is suitable#. In theconte(t of wo ldviews, man! add a(iological aspects "7hich values areado ted#. De endin' on ho7 these are de@ned$ one and the sa!e event 7ill be inter reted very di erently. Kuhnalso observed that usually several aradi'!s exist$ but only one see!s to beco!e do!inant 8 as it 7as the case7ith !ainstrea! econo!ics over the last *++ years.

indset shift theo ! is t ue

.Opel %$ 8 - Maerlin o?ce of the u ertal Institute for Cli!ate$ Environ!ent andEner'y. er research focuses on syste! transfor!ations and ne7 ros erity !odels. Precedin' this ost she hel edstart u the orld Future Council and later directed its Future Justice ro'ra! 7ith a focus on the re resentation offuture 'enerations and lon'-ter!is! in current 'overnance structures. Ma

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[AUTHOR NAME 3he 7orld no7 had *+ years to observe the e! irical conse1uences of these !athe!atical stunts$ and the callfo a pa adigm shift or "'reat# transfor!ations has become standa d in thediscou se a ound the post 716 development agenda $ the e!er'in' )ustainableDevelo !ent 4oals or the ne7 IPCC assess!ent re ort: a enewed oppo tunit! fo deepst uctu al change . )yste! transfor!ation researchers li%e those at the /esta Foundation in the (Kbrou'ht for7ard a list of 've Jmain ing edientsK fo successfult ansfo mation: ailu es and f ust ations with the cu ent s!stemmultipl! as negative consequences become inc easingl! visible) Ahelandscape in which the egime ope ates shifts as ne7 lon'-ter! trends e!er'e orsudden events drastically impact the gene al availabilit! o pe suasiveness ofpa ticula solutions . /iche alternatives start to develo and 'ain !o!entu!H coalitions e!er'e thatcoalesce around the rinci les of a ne7 a roach. /e7 technolo'ies are ener'i0in' the u co!in' alternativesolutions either in the for! of alternative roducts or o ortunities for co!!unication and connection. Ino de to achieve fa & eaching re'i!e changes $dissents and 'ssu eswithin the egime itself a e ke!, athe than small adaptations and co-o tation into the old re'i!e.V=W 2 core ele!ent in this se1uence is the 5ne7 a roach9 !entioned in oint =. Just as

aradi'!s and he'e!onic !indsets have a ha! erin' e ect on alternative ro osals$ the challengingof these pa adigms and thei c isis equall! holds the emancipato !powe fo s!stem t ansfo mations . hile !any ar'ue that$ 7ith re'ard to the develo !entstory of econo!ic 'ro7th$ such alternatives are still dis ersed ha enin's and no7here near rovidin' a consistenta roach$ I thin% 7e are at a ti in' oint. 2 @rst su er@cial revie7 of a fe7 !ove!ents sho7s a lot ofco!!onalities bet7een the core rinci les of$ for exa! le$ the 5Econo!y for the Co!!on 4ood5V W$ the 53ransition

3o7n !ove!ent9V W$ and the Co!!onin' !ove!entV W$ or the international e orts to !easure a ne7 develo !entaradi'! led by >hutan 7ith its 4ross /ational a iness a roachV W . C oss&cutting ideas andationales 0u(taposed to the mainst eam economic ones a e: "

holistic unde standing of human needs and p ospe it! be!ondconsumption Equitable and balanced p og ess of the 7hole socio&

ecological s!stem 2 vision of su=cienc! p oviding f eedom f om feaof falling behind in the ace fo mo e wealth and f eedom fro! constantlycreated sho in'-7ants that i! ede 7ellbein' . owth in c eativit!, capacities, timewealth and convivialit! " rocess utility# in co-creative relationshi s 2 cultu e of

espect, p ecaution and ca ing fo what is al ead! the e heddingold pa adigms and imagina ies of life, societ! and desi able futu esusually 'oes alon'side crises in the 5real9 7orld. e are loo%in' at a roc%y ride ahead$ but the mo ecla it! we have about whe e we want to get and how it can be done,the bette we can coo dinate . 3his leaves !e to @nish 7ith Milton Fried!an: 5 3nl! ac isis&actual o pe ceived&p oduces eal change) 9hen that c isisoccu s, the actions that a e taken depend on the ideas that a e l!inga ound . 3hat$ I believe$ is ou basic function: to develop alte natives toe(isting policies, to keep them alive and available until thepoliticall! impossible becomes the politicall! inevitable)K

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC & U Econ

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC DebtU economic collapse is inevitable & debtFele in 15 "Monty Pelerin$ 2>$ M>2 and PhD de'rees fro! Du%e (niversity$ the(niversity of Chica'o and )yracuse (niversity in @nance and econo!ics$ BExtre!e

fear is reasonable: Econo!ic colla se is inevitableB$ July * *+,=$htt :;;777.sott.net;article;* = -Extre!e-fear-is-reasonable-Econo!ic-colla se-is-inevitable#

It is nearly i! ossible to convince eo le that an econo!ic colla se is li%ely$ erha s inevitable. It is beyondanythin' they have seen or can i!a'ine. I attribute that to a nor!alcy bias$ an inherent 7ea%ness of ex erientiallearners. For !any$ acce tin' so!ethin' that has not occurred durin' their ti!e on the lanet is not ossible. 3hela7s of econo!ics and !athe!atics !ay sha e history but they are not controlled by history. 3he for! ofcataclys! and its ti!in' is indeter!inable. Political decisions continue to sha e both. 3he !ad!en 7ho areres onsible for the co!in' disaster continue to behave as if they can !ana'e to avoid it. Qiolatin' Einstein6sde@nition of insanity$ they continue to a ly the sa!e oison that caused the roble!. 3hese fools believe they can!ana'e co! lexities they do not understand. e are bi''er fools for rovidin' the! the authority to indul'e theirhubris and 7rea% such da!a'e. 2 ocaly se In ne Picture Ja!es Zuinn rovided the follo7in' 'ra h. If a icture is7orth a thousand 7ords$ this 'ra h is 7orth !illions. Ahe oute to economic demise isdepicted below : 3he relationshi s in this 'ra h are terrifyin'[ Debt is sho7n relative to 4DP. .DFg owth has been one&thi d the g owth in debt fo the pe iod) Ahatis, the econom! equi ed Q5 of debt to p oduce Q1 mo e in eal .DF .In recent years diminishing etu ns to debt equi ed Q# of debt to inc ease.DF a Q1) hatever the bene@ts of debt$ they have clearly di!inished$ al!ost to 0ero. Debt ex ansion has'one ex onential in order to salva'e the 7ea% 'ro7th in 4DP. 3o ut this into a ers ective the avera'e reader canunderstand$ thin% of 4DP as a household6s s endin'. Ahe 4famil!4 depicted above has tobo ow each !ea in o de to maintain its spending level) Imaginethe condition of !ou famil! if !ou bo owed # times the amount of

inc emental spending each !ea ) Ahen imagine the condition of !oufamil! afte fo t! !ea s of continuousl! inc easing !ou debt levelssubstantiall! in e(cess of !ou income . It is i! ossible for a fa!ily 7ithout a rintin'

ress and a coo erative Federal Reserve to en'a'e in such behavior. 3he 'overn!ent is di erent$ you sayO )urely itis$ but not necessarily in a !eanin'ful @nancial !anner. Just as you 7ould not survive such behavior$ 'overn!entscannot either. istory is full of exa! les of 'overn!ent colla ses resultin' fro! excessive debt and overs endin'.2 rintin' ress only rovides the luxury of !ore ti!e before the failure. ou !ay ob

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[AUTHOR NAMEhave dec eased epo ted .DF d amaticall!) hile that !ay have been a ro erecono!ic res onse$ it is no7 olitically i! ossible "or hi'hly unli%ely#. Continuing to inc easedebt at a ate g eate than .DF ensu es 'nancial collapse) )to in' orslo7in' do7n at this oint li%ely leads to the sa!e oint. Ahis count ! has maneuve editself into a no&escape situation) hat 7ould ha en to 4DP and the standard of livin' ifborro7in' 7ere dra!atically reducedO o7 !uch of the last \,+ tril lion in debt borro7ed bet7een *+++ and *++7ent directly into re orted 4DPO Is it ossible that re orted 4DP for this eriod could have been \,+ trillion lo7erOIf there is indeed a !onetary;@scal !ulti lier as Keynesians insist$ then results 7ould have been 7orse. 2ns7ers tothese 1uestions are s eculative. 3hose in favor of !ore debt ar'ue that a cala!ity 7ould have occurred had the!assive rise in debt and its acco! any sti!ulative e ects not ha ened. For the Paul Kru'!ans of the 7orld$ !oredebt and sti!ulus is al7ays the ans7er. 2ll roble!s loo% li%e nails 7hen you o7n only a ha!!er. 2apidl!inc easing amounts of debt since 1*#6 have been accompanied b!falling ates of g owth . ne !ay s eculate 7hat this 'ro7th 7ould have been 7ith di erent rates ofdebt ex ansion. hether the rate of debt ex ansion increased or decreased the rate of real 4DP is !oot.Econo!ists can use their co! etin' aradi'!s to duel over this issue$ but cannot co!e to a conclusion that isacce table to !ost. Mathe!atics$ on the other hand$ is de@nitive. 3here are !athe!atical li!its that control theability to service debt. nce these li!its have been breached$ so!e a!ount of the debt 7ill be defaulted on. 3hebreach oint is referred to as a debt death s iral. 3he () has assed this !athe!atical oint and is in a deaths iral. Ahe political class in "me ica, eithe via misguided economicpolicies o a delibe ate attempt to hide the t ue condition of thecount !, has put us he e) Ahe! will continue to emplo! whatevepolicies the! believe will keep things going fo a while longe ) Ahet agic ending has been cast) Economics cannot t ump mathematics .

Economic collapse is inevitable without the gold standa d &debt p oves

p ott #$1# "Eric ) rott$ >achelor of 2rts ; )cience at Carleton (niversity$for!ed a bro%era'e @r! before settin' u his o7n !oney !ana'e!ent @r! t7odecades$ re'arded as one of the country’s le'endary recious !etals’ investors$

B37elve /u!bers that Prove Econo!ic Colla se is InevitableB$ June , *+, $htt :;;s rott!oneyblo'.co!;t7elve-nu!bers-that- rove-econo!ic-colla se-is-inevitable;T#

Ahe total debt of the U gove nment stands at oughl! 1+)6 t illiondolla s and is g owing as each second passes) 3his nu!ber is so sta''erin' that theavera'e !an on the street has di?culty understandin' it. )adly$ the reality of the situation is blea%. Ahisballooning debt is completel! unsustainable and cannot be epaid)2emembe , what cannot be epaid will not be epaid) Ahe Ugove nment is on a path towa ds total collapse . 3he debt levels havegone ove the cli< and li%e the infa!ous cartoon character ile E. Coyote$ it is onl! amatte of time befo e g avit! takes hold and the econom! comesc ashing down . Even !ore shoc%in' is the fact that there are nu!bers even blea%er than those of the ()debt level. 3he Econo!ic Colla se >lo' has co! iled a list of econo!ic nu!bers that everyone should ta%e theti!e to read and understand: -\,$*A+$+++$+++$+++ - Most eo le are really sur rised 7hen they hear this nu!ber.Ri'ht no7$ the e is onl! 1) 8 t illion dolla s wo th of U) ) cu enc!

oating a ound out there. -\, $ $, $A+ $*,*.* - 3his is the si0e of the U) ) nationaldebt) It has g own b! mo e than 17 t illion dolla s ove the past ten

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[AUTHOR NAME!ea s . -\=*$+++$+++$+++$+++ - 3his is the total a!ount of !oney that the 'lobal elite have stashed in o shoreban%s "that 7e %no7 about#. -\ A$ ,,$ A $+++$+++ - 3his is the total ex osure that 4old!an )achs has toderivatives contracts. - Q6*,5*8,6*7,777,777 & Ahis is the total amount of debt "'overn!ent$ cor orate$ consu!er$ etc.# in the (.). @nancial syste!. %7 !ea s ago, this numbewas 0ust a little bit above t illion dolla s . -\ +$+AA$ * $+++$+++ - 3his is the totalex osure that JPMor'an Chase has to derivatives contracts. -\ ,$A=+$+++$+++$+++ - 3his is the a roxi!ate si0e ofthe 4DP of the entire 7orld. -\ $+++$+++$+++$+++ - 3his is a roxi!ately the total ex osure that 4er!an ban%in''iant$ Deutsche >an%$ has to derivatives contracts. -\ 177,777,777,777,777 & Ahis is thetotal amount of gove nment debt in the enti e wo ld) Ahis amounthas g own b! Q57 t illion 0ust since mid& 77+ . -\**=$=++$+++$+++$+++ - 3his is thea roxi!ate si0e of the total a!ount of debt in the entire 7orld. -\*= $ = $* ,$+++$+++ - 2ccordin' to the (.).'overn!ent$ this is the total ex osure that the to * ban%s in the (nited )tates have to derivatives contracts. >utthose ban%s only have total assets of about . trillion dollars co!bined. In other 7ords$ the e(posu e ofou la gest banks to de ivatives outweighs thei total assets b! a

atio of about 6 to 1 . -\ ,+$+++$+++$+++$+++ to \,$ ++$+++$+++$+++$+++ -Ahe estimatesof the total notional value of all global de ivatives cont actsgene all! fall within this ange) "t the high end of the ange, the

atio of de ivatives e(posu e to global .DF is about 1 to 1 . 2fter readin'these nu!bers$ read the! a'ain. 3a%e a !o!ent to let reality sin% in. ince going o< the goldstanda d, 9este n gove nments have ente ed into a Fon>i scheme&based econom! . 3he only savior for your @nances 7ill be recious !etals. 3a%e a !o!ent to considerthat all the 'old in the 7orld is only 7orth \ $ $=, $, $ A . 2 dro in the buc%et co! ared to the nu!berslisted above. If you read these nu!bers and believe that the 'overn!ent has a !a'ical solution$ then you live in afantasy 7orld. Ahese numbe s point to one conclusion onl!) "n inevitable,eventual collapse)

U economic decline is inevitable & empi ics demonst ate thevulne abilit! of the global econom!Giancu>>o 15 "Marty >iancu00o$ Chief 3echnolo'y 2nalyst at 3ech ] InnovationDaily$ revious Director of 3radin' )ervices at Money Ma Press and 2ssociateDirector of 3radin' )ervices at xford Club ; all )treet Daily ; Money Ma Press$B3he Inevitable Econo!ic DefaultB$ 2 ril * *+,=$htt :;;777.ca itolhilldaily.co!;*+,=;+ ;econo!ic-default;#

ost people think that the sto ! of the ultimate economic collapsehas al ead! been told . 3he 4reat De ressionG 3he dot-co! bustG 3he housin' and credit crisis of*++AG Gut the g eatest economic collapse is a sto ! that@s still beingw itten . It started 7hen Presidents >ush and ba!a s ent over \, trillion in sti!ulus aid 8 and lo7eredinterest rates to near +N levels 8 to @x the econo!ic crisis. >y doin' so$ the! essentiall! solvedthe p oblem with the same e(act measu es that c eated thep oblem in the ' st place) Ahe! c eated anothe bubble) nly thistime, it@s within ou ede al 2ese ve) "nd when it pops, like eve !bubble does, it will take us all down with it . 3he )ta%es ave /ever >een i'her 2ll it7ill ta%e for this next bubble to burst is a debt default. 2nd 7hen it ha ens$ 7e 7on’t be able to solve our

roble!s 7ith the sa!e old !ethods. 9e can@t lowe inte est – it@s al ead! at ock&

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[AUTHOR NAMEbottom lows) 9e can@t fu the stimulate, as that would equi ela ge stimulus packages and deepen ou bu den even mo e) (lti!ately$ou fo eign c edito s will do one of t7o thin's: 3hey’ll either stop lending usmone!, o the!@ll devalue the newl! p inted dolla s we@ e using topa! o< ou debt) Eithe wa!, once ou c edito s e(pose the t uevalue of the dolla – game ove . Countries 7ill loo% to exchan'e 7ith a currency of 'reatervalue$ and the (nited )tates 7ill be forced to say 'oodbye to the Federal Reserve. 3his isn’t so!ethin' that !i'htha en$ either ) It@s inevitable) o inevitable, in fact, that the ed can nolonge hide it . Ahe fede al gove nment ecentl! issued a call toaction to all 67 states – and 've of ou nation@s la gest banks – top epa e fo the coming collapse . 2nd states aren’t ta%in' any chancesG 2n 27a%enin' of the)tate )o!e states sa7 the 7ritin' on the 7all lon' before any o?cial 7arnin' ca!e fro! the Fed. 3a%e 3exas and

yo!in'$ for exa! le. 3hey too% the @rst roactive !easures to7ard 7hat is no7 beco!in' a nation7ide$ state-by-state internal assess!ent. 3hey for!ulated 5Doo!sday Pre aration >ills9 that$ once assed$ 7ould establish crisisco!!ittees. 3he >ills: 3exas 8 > A 5)elf )u?ciency 2ct9 yo!in' 8 > A 5)tate Run 4overn!ent Continuity

3as% Force9 3hey see% to establish !easures that rotect the state and its citi0ens in the event of federal default.Further!ore$ the bills initiate the necessary ste s to beco!in' a soverei'n state. 3he states have decided to:2naly0e ho7 de endent they are on federal fundin'. >e'in stashin' 5e!er'ency funds9 for survivin' 7ithoutfederal aid. Pre are a state-run ar!y to defend a'ainst the i!!inent resource scarcity and threats that 7ill arisefro! federal default. 3his includes stoc% ilin' !ilitary technolo'ies. 2rran'e the issuance of alternative currency.2nd they aren’t the only ones 7or%in' on alternative solutionsG Qir'inia$ (tah$ /orth Carolina and )outh Carolinahave already le'islated the use of 'old and silver as currency for intra-state transactions. (tah 7as the @rst tointroduce the currency bill that allo7s residents to use (.).-!inted 'old and silver coins. 3hey’re currentlydevelo in' a syste! 7here citi0ens could use debit cards lin%ed to their 'old and silver holdin's. )outh Carolinatoo% it one ste further by allo7in' any for! of 'old and silver coin$ includin' other currencies li%e the Phili ine

eso. 2nd Paul >roun$ Jr. of 4eor'ia reintroduced Ron Paul’s 5Co! etition in Currency 2ct9 at the be'innin' of thisyear. CIC2*+,= intends to re eal the ille'al use of forei'n 'old and silver coins nation7ide. 2s the Fed continues todevalue the dollar$ it’s the lo'ical ste to ta%e 7hen considerin' usin' another for! of le'al tender. )o!ethin' toConsiderG It see!s absurd to thin% the (nited )tates 8 the 7orld’s !ost o7erful nation 8 could be facin' econo!iccolla se. It’s a conce t that see!s radical to !ost eo le$ es ecially 7hen the (nited )tates has a 222 ratin' andthe !ar%ets are at all-ti!e hi'hs. >ut thin% about it. Ahe 778 c isis b ought the wo ldeconom! to its knees) 9e witnessed the dest uction of bigbusinesses 8 Leh!an >rothers$ >ehr )terns$ 2I4$ Fannie and Freddie. 2nd we@ve seenp ospe ous nations falte – Iceland, . eece, Ital!, pain andFo tugal) 3u gove nment has taken on a suicidal amount of bu denand in0ected wo thless mone! into a b oke s!stem – all in an e

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[AUTHOR NAME

Ahe United tates could soon become a la ge&scale pain o . eece,teete ing on the edge of 'nancial uin . 3hat’s accordin' to Donald 3ru! $ 7ho ainted avery u'ly icture of 7here this country is headed. 3ru! !ade the co!!ents durin' a recent a earance on Fox/e7s’ 5 n the Record 7ith 4reta Qan )usteren.9 "cco ding to A ump, the United tatesis no longe a ich count !) J9hen !ou@ e not ich, !ou have to goout and bo ow mone!) 9e@ e bo owing f om the Chinese andothe s) 9e@ e up to Q1# t illion in debt) 9 e 'oes on to oint out that thedowng ade of U) ) debt is inevitable) J9e a e going up to Q1#t illion Rin debtS ve ! soon, and it@s going to be a lot highe than thatbefore he 'ets @nished. 9hen !ou have RdebtS in the Q 1&Q t illion, !ou a etalking about a downg ade no matte how !ou cut it)K >alloonin' debt and acredit do7n'rade aren’t 3ru! ’s only 7orries for this country. e says that the o=cialunemplo!ment ate of A.* ercent 5isn’t a real nu!ber9 and that the real @'ure is close to16 pe cent to 1# pe cent) e even !entioned that so!e believe the une! loy!ent rate to be ashi'h as *, ercent. 5Ri'ht no7$ fran%ly$ the country isn’t doin' 7ell$9 3ru! added$ 5Recession !ay be a nice7ord.9 9hile 16 pe cent to 1# pe cent unemplo!ment, a looming c editdowng ade, and ballooning debt a e a bleak outlook fo the United

tates, the! a e ha dl! as ala ming as the scena io laid out b!anothe economist) 9ithout ea ning celeb it! status o having hisown television show $ Robert 9iedeme did so!ethin' else that 'rabbed headlines across thecountry: e accu atel! p edicted the economic collapse that almost sankthe United tates . In *++ $ iede!er and a tea! of econo!ists foresa7 the co!in' colla se of the(.). housin' !ar%et$ e1uity !ar%ets$ rivate debt$ and consu!er s endin'$ and ublished their @ndin's in the boo%2!erica’s >ubble Econo!y. Editor’s /ote: >ut 9iedeme @s outlook fo the U) )econom! toda! makes A ump@s obse vations seem almost optimistic)9he e A ump sees ballooning debt and a c edit downg ade,9iedeme sees much mo e widesp ead economic dest uction . In a recentintervie7 for his ne7est boo% 2ftershoc%$ 9iedeme sa!s, JAhe data is clea , 67Tunemplo!ment, a *7T stock ma ket d op, and 177T annual in ation) ) ) sta ting in 71 .9 hen the host 1uestioned such 7ild clai!s$ iede!er una olo'eticallydis layed shoc%in' charts bac%in' u his alle'ations$ and then ended his ar'u!ent 7ith$ 5 ou see$ the !edicine 7illbeco!e the oison.9 Ahe inte view has become a wake&up call fo thoseunp epa ed Bo unwilling to acknowledge an ugl! t uth: Ahecount !@s 'nancial J escueK devised in 9ashington has failedmise abl!)

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC -aund ! -ist" U 'nancial c isis is inevitable & # easonsDenning 15 ")teve Dennin'$ Director of %no7led'e !ana'e!ent ", -*+++# atthe orld >an%$ director of the )cru! 2lliance$ fello7 of the Lean )oft7are )ociety$

and contributor to Forbes$ citin' 2lan ). >linder$ the 4ordon ). Rentschler Me!orialProfessor of Econo!ics and Public 2 airs at Princeton (niversity$ Qice Chair!an ofthe Pro!ontory Inter@nancial /et7or%$ and re'ular colu!nist for 3he all )treet

Journal$ B2lan >linder: )ix Reasons hy 2nother Financial Crisis Is ")till# InevitableB$)e te!ber ,* *+,=$ htt :;;777.forbes.co!;sites;stevedennin';*+,=;+ ;,*;alan-blinder-six-reasons-7hy-another-@nancial-crisis-is-still-inevitable;#

"s we app oach the 've&!ea annive sa ! of 5Leh!an Day9^)e te!ber , $ *++A^the da! when -ehman G othe s collapsed, 'nancial ma kets f o>eand the global 'nancial s!stem almost disinteg ated $ it’s 'ood to 'et are!inder that the unde l!ing issues that caused the debacle still haven@tbeen '(ed) 3he re!inder co!es fro! 2lan ). >linder$ rofessor of econo!ics and ublic a airs at Princeton(niversity$ for!er vice chair!an of the Federal Reserve$ and the author of the excellent history of the @nancialcrisis$ 2fter the Music )to ed: 3he Financial Crisis$ the Res onse$ and the or% 2head. e has no7 7ritten aninterestin' article in the all )treet Journal$ entitled 52lan >linder: Five ears Later$ Financial Lessons /ot Learned.9Earlier this year$ I ex lained in this colu!n 7hy anothe 'nancial c isis is inevitable . /o7F ofesso Glinde p esents si( Jsmoking gunK easons wh! thep oblems of the 'nancial secto still a en@t '(ed and in e

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[AUTHOR NAME2nd Mr. 4ensler’s days leadin' the CF3C loo% nu!bered.9 3he fate of any other 7ould-be refor!ers loo%s si!ilarlydi!. ifth, the ating agencies a e Jstill hi ed and paid b! the ve !companies whose secu ities the! ate)K Ahe c edit& ating agenciesJcont ibuted mightil! to the 'nancial mess the! blessed 'nancial

0unk with coveted t iple&" atings G 3he ratin' a'encies are still hired and aid by the veryco! anies 7hose securities they rate.9 3he Dodd-Fran% 2ct called on federal a'encies to study the situation and!a%e i! rove!ents. 3hose studies that have been done are 5'atherin' dust.9 2ction to date: none. i(th,the Volcke 2ule fo bidding p op ieta ! t ading b! banks has notbeen implemented) Ahe idea of the Volcke 2ule was to Jp eventbanks f om gambling with DIC&insu ed funds G Dodd-Fran% 7as si'ned into la7 in

July *+,+. 3he Qolc%er rule has been tied u ever since by internal bureaucratic s1uabbles and external ressurefro! the ban%in' industry.9 In short$ F ofesso Glinde concludes that the p incipalp oblems that led to the 'nancial meltdown of 778 emainun esolved . Is there any reason to thin% that yet another !assive @nancial crisis is not inevitableO )o!e7ould ar'ue that 7e 7ill not see a re eat of the recent @nancial crisis because it 7as driven by !ort'a'es bein'extended to eo le 7ho should have never received the!$ artly at the behest of 'overn!ent. Ahe e isnow little isk of that pa ticula kind a mo tgage c isis fo thefo eseeable futu e) Gut that@s not to sa! that the e won@t be othe'nancial c ises in the futu eH in pa ticula f om the massive hiddenactivit! in de ivatives)

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC & .lobal Econ

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC -aund ! -ist.lobal economic collapse is inevitable & unsustainable

n!de $15 "Michael$ 'raduate of the (niversity of Florida la7 school and anattorney in ashin'ton D.C.$ also %no7n for his 7or% as the ublisher of 3he

Econo!ic Colla se >lo'$ B*+ )i'ns 3hat 3he 4lobal Econo!ic Crisis Is )tartin' 3oCatch FireB$ February ,= *+, $ htt :;;theecono!iccolla seblo'.co!;archives;*+-si'ns-that-the-'lobal-econo!ic-crisis-is-startin'-to-catch-@re#

3ve the past few !ea s, the ede al 2ese ve and othe globalcent al banks have in ated an unp ecedented 'nancial bubble withthei eckless mone! p inting . Much of this Bhot !oneyB oured into e!er'in' !ar%ets all overthe 7orld. >ut now that the ede al 2ese ve has begun 4tape ing4quantitative easing, investo s a e taking this as a sign that thepa t! is ending) one! is being pulled out of eme ging ma kets allove the globe at a stagge ing pace and this is c eating a t emendousamount of 'nancial instabilit! . In addition$ the economic p oblems thathave been steadil! g owing ove the past few !ea s in establishedeconomies th oughout Eu ope and "sia 0ust continue to escalate .Ahe following a e 7 signs that the global economic c isis is sta tingto catch ' e ... W1 Ahe unemplo!ment ate in . eece has hit a b andnew eco d high of 8 pe cent . W Ahe !outh unemplo!ment ate in. eece has hit a b and new eco d high of #%)1 pe cent . T5 Ahepe centage of bad loans in Ital! is at an all&time eco d high . W%Italian indust ial output declined again in Decembe , and the Italiangove nment is on the ve ge of collapse . W6 Ahe numbe of 0obseeke s in ance has isen fo 57 of the last 5 months, and at this

oint it has climbed to a new all&time eco d high) W# Ahe total numbeof business failu es in ance in 715 was even highe than in an!!ea du ing the last 'nancial c isis . W+ It is being p o0ected thathousing p ices in pain will fall anothe 17 to 16 pe cent as theieconomic dep ession deepens) W8 Ahe economic and politicaltu moil in Au ke! is spinning out of cont ol) 3he 'overn!ent has resorted to blastin'

rotesters 7ith e er s ray and 7ater cannons in a des erate atte! t to restore order. T It is bein' esti!atedthat the in ation ate in " gentina is now ove %7 pe cent, and thepeso is absolutel! collapsing . T,+ .angs of a med bandits a e

oaming the st eets in Vene>uela as the economic chaos in thatt oubled nation continues to escalate . T,, China appea s to be ve !se ious about deleve aging) Ahe de ationa ! e

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[AUTHOR NAME7ell-advised for China$ but the rest of the 7orld see!s re!ar%ably nonchalant over the i! lications. W1Ahe e was a signi'cant debt default b! a coal compan! in China lastFriday... 2 hi'h-yield invest!ent roduct bac%ed by a loan to a debt-ridden coal co! any failed to re ay investors7hen it !atured last Friday$ state !edia re orted on ednesday$ in the latest si'n of @nancial stress in China6sshado7 ban% sector. T,= Xapan/s Nikkei stock inde( has al ead! fallen b! 1%pe cent so fa in 71%) Ahat is a massive decline in 0ust a month anda half . T1% Uk aine continues to fall apa t 'nanciall! ... Ahe wo seningpolitical and economic ci cumstances in Uk aine has p ompted the Fitch 2atings agenc! to downg ade Uk ainian debt f om G to a p e–default level CCC . 3his is lo7er than 4reece$ and Fitch 7arns of future @nancial instability. T, Aheunemplo!ment ate in "ust alia has isen to the highest level inmo e than 17 !ea s . T, Ahe cent al bank of India is in a panic ovethe wa! that ede al 2ese ve tape ing is e

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC odelsIA models p ove collapse is coming now despite technological

imp ovementsimms 1 "2ndre7 )i!!s$ studied at the London )chool of Econo!ics$ author

and Fello7 at the /e7 Econo!ics Foundation$ author of Ecolo'ical Debt: 3he ealthof the Planet ] the ealth of /ations "*++ # and 3he /e7 Econo!ics "*++ #$BClin'in' to econo!ic 'ro7th su ocates the i!a'inationB$ February , *+,*$htt :;;777.the'uardian.co!;co!!entisfree;*+,*;feb;+,;li!its-to-econo!ic-'ro7th#

For one thin'$ the !odel used by the MI3 scientists didn6t !a%e recise B redictionsB$ but roro7n6s 3reasury. My

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[AUTHOR NAMEo iginal IA g oup was the p oblem of time lag) Envi onmentalp oblems became obvious and we e acted on too late) Damagebecame locked in) 3his is the !o!ent 7e are no7 livin' throu'h. /asa cli!ate scientist Ja!es ansenrecently ointed out that if the rich 7orld had started reducin' e!issions as recently as *++ $ the annual reductionsnecessary 7ould have been =N. ait until next year and the @'ure rises to N$ 7ait further until *+*+ and theannual tar'et lea s to a sta''erin' , N reduction er year.

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC Feak 3ilDebt and peak oil ensu e economic collapse – acting nowsolves the t ansition?o owic> 11 "David$ hysicist and hu!an syste!s ecolo'ist$ the director of 3heRis%;Resilience /et7or% in Ireland$ a board !e!ber of FE2)32 "3he Foundation forthe Econo!ics of )ustainability#$ 5In the 7orld$ at the li!its to 'ro7thB$ May ,*+,,$ htt :;;777.feasta.or';*+,,;+ ;, ;in-the-7orld-at-the-li!its-to-'ro7th;#

et our feet of clay are that ou econom! and civilisation e(ist onl! b! vi tue ofesou ce ows f om ou envi onment . Ahe onl! laws in economics a e

the laws of ph!sics $ everythin' else is contin'ent$ su osition or vanity. "n econom!, g owingin si>e and comple(it!, is ' stl! a the mod!namic s!stem equi inginc easing ene g! ows to g ow and avoid deca!) 9aste, be itg eenhouse gasses o land'll is also a natu al outcome of such athe mod!namic p ocess . /e7s fro! Else7here It’s been art of the bac%'round noise for over half a century$7arnin's about resource scarcity$ biodiversity loss$ soil erosion or cli!ate chan'e. >ut i! acts 7ere al7ays on the i!a'inativehori0on. )o!eti!e$ far enou'h into the future to be re-assurin' to a s ecies that evolved 7ith a clear reference for the short-ter!.

r on the hinterland bet7een our safe Euro ean ho!e and the barbarian other$ 7here starvation$ environ!ental disasters$ an'ry!obs and cra0y des ots have al7ays de!anded our attention$ at least 7hile on 3Q. es 7e can[ es 7e can[ - chanted the osse ofteena'ers follo7in' 2l 4ore throu'h a avilion in Po0nan$ Poland for the annual 'atherin' of cli!ate olicy acrony!s. hen notdistracted by the ever- resent$ 7e’ve res onded to these 7arnin's 7ith treaties and la7s$ technolo'y and exhortation. f course$every ecolo'ical indicator %e t 'ettin' 7orse. 2nd 7e %e t on about treaties and la7s$ and brea%-throu'h technolo'ies. ur !ythic7orld-vie7s 'ave us the shared faith that 7e !ay not be there yet$ but 7e could$ once a brilliant sche!e is in lace$ a cli!ate la7

assed$ technolo'ies ado ted$ evil ban%ers restrained$ or once eo le y loc%-in$ 7e !ean that ourability to chan'e !a

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[AUTHOR NAMEgiant c edit bubble) Ahe g ound will open up, we will fall, and ouvisions will fall fu the and fu the f om ou g asp . 3hey are sayin' thatglobal food p oduction is hitting an a a! of ecological const aints,while population g owth and changing diets a e d iving up demand .

3hey note that cu ent food p oduction is massivel! subsidised th oughfossil fuel inputs, and that as those inputs become less available,and people become poo e due to economic cont action, foodp oductivit! and access will be unde mined . In totality$ we a e at the edgeof an evolving s!stemic c isis) Feak oil and food const aints a elikel! to unde mine the stabilit! of ou integ ated globalisedeconom!) Ahe co e pilla s of that econom!: c itical inf ast uctu e,p oduction ows, economies of scale, the 'nancial and moneta !s!stem, behaviou al adaptation, esou ce access and ene g! ows&a e likel! to begin fo cing contagious failu e) Ahe d iving fo ce ofthis failu e is likel! to be the fastest and most unstable p ocess&the

impact of ene g! and food const ained economic g owth, and anal ead! vulne able moneta ! and 'nancial s!stem dependent uponcontinuing g owth . 3i'htenin' binds hatever of Ireland’s econo!ic 7oes$ the real debt bubble is 'lobal. Ahedebt elative to .DF is fa g eate now in the ()$ (K$ and !uch of Euro e$ than iteve was leading up to the g eat dep ession) -ike man! count ieswe esponded to ou debt bubble with mo e debt, we 0ust shifted itonto the sove eign o the p inting p ess . 3he indebted 7orld$ even 7ithout oil and food ricerises is strainin' at the li!its of debt servicin' and credibility. et it is de!andin' even !ore credit$ 7hile its abilit! tose vice the debt is being unde mined b! debt de ation, auste it!,

ising 0ob losses, and defaults) Ahe bank lende s of that mone! can

onl! lose so much befo e the! a e too a e insolvent) 2ising food andene g! p ices a e d iving the de ationa ! fo ces even ha de . 2nd if centralban%s !isinter ret the cause of food and oil rice rises$ and raise interest rates$ the de&ationary ressures ris% beco!in' cyclonic.

3he cost of essentials and debt servicin' rise$ 7hile inco!e declines. Discretionary s endin' 7ill colla se$ one defaults a e not me el! that the! couldtopple ench, U?, and .e man banks, but that this could b inkdown U banks and e

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[AUTHOR NAME'at mone!, f actional ese ve banking, and inte est can onl!collapse) ;igh oil and food p ices a e essentiall! p obing the limitsof the stabilit! of the globalised econom!) Ahe! will p obe untilthe e is a ma0o collapse in global economic p oduction) 2t 7hich oint ourener'y rices !ay fall$ but our real inco!e and urchasin' o7er 7ill fall faster. 2nd !ar%ets 7ill discover this truth 1uic%er than

!onetary authorities and 'overn!ents ) Its e(p ession will be in deepe and deepeeconomic st esses and ma0o s!stemic banking collapses . ?cial res onses 7illbeco!e !ore and !ore i! otent$ as their funda!ental econo!ic and olicy tools no lon'er 7or%$ and their atina of controlbeco!es hollo7. If and 7hen ban%in' syste! conta'ion s reads to su ly-chain conta'ion 7e !ay face existential challen'es.

Even we e we to have the pe fect moneta ! and 'nancial s!stem,without debt and well cont olled, peak oil and food would p esentan unp ecedented shock) "s incomes sh unk while essentials suchas food and ene g! become mo e e(pensive, non&disc etiona !spending would be squee>ed out) In the develo ed 7orld$ non&disc etiona !goods and se vices a e 0ust about all we p oduce) o the esultwould still be mass unemplo!ment) 3u c itical inf ast uctu e would

still be inc easingl! vulne able fo va ious easons, and moneta !instabilit! would still destabilise suppl!&chains . Facin' urselves ] Facin' ur Future eare at the be'innin' of a rocess in 7hich ou wo ld&views c ash against a fundamentall!unstable 'nancial s!stem and ecological const aints . 2 ti!e 7here 7e 7ill learnthat 7hat 7as$ 7ill never returnH and 7hat 7as ex ected$ can never be. e are facin' a ti!e of loss and uncertainty. 2 ti!e of ban%-runs$ lost savin's and ensions$ of !ass une! loy!ent$ electricity and !obile hone blac%-outs$ of hun'er and e! ty su er-!ar%et

shelves. " localised econom! will no longe be somethingenvi onmentalists aspi e to developH athe it will be fo ced upon usas bank failu es, moneta ! unce taint!, and lost pu chasing poweseve links in the web of the global econom! . >ut 7e no lon'er have indi'enousecono!ies to fall bac% u on. 3he 'a bet7een ex ectations and 7hat can be realised is historically a !a

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[AUTHOR NAME

3

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[AUTHOR NAME

9a

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[AUTHOR NAME

1NC

Economic g owth causes wa") Economic g owth makes con ict escalation mo e likel!YInc eases esolve of leade s)Goehme , L17 VCharles >oeh!er is a Ph.D. in Political )cience fro! Pennsylvania )tate (niversity$5Econo!ic 4ro7th and Qiolent International Con&ict: ,A -, $9htt :;;777.tandfonline.co!;doi;full;,+.,+A+;,+* * + += AA+,TtabModuleWJ2KE LEE

3he theory set forth earlier theori0es that economic g owth inc eases pe ceptions ofstate st ength, inc easing the likelihood of violent inte statecon icts) Economic g owth appea s to inc ease the esolve ofleade s to stand against challenges and the willingness to escalatedisputes) " non& andom patte n e(ists whe e highe ates of .DFg owth ove multiple !ea s a e positivel! and signi'cantl! elated tothe most seve e inte national con icts $ 7hereas this is not true for overall con&ictinitiations. Moreover$ 'ro7th of !ililary ex enditures$ as a !easure of the 7ar chest ro osition$ does not o er anyex lanation for violent interstate con&icts. 3his is not to say lhat 'ro7th of !ilitary ex enditures never has anye ect on the occurrence of 7ar$ althou'h such a lin% is not 'enerally true in the a''re'ate usin' a lar'e sa! le ofstates. In co! arison$ hi'her rates of econo!ic 'ro7th are si'ni@cantly related to violent interstate con&icts in thea''re'ate. tates with g owing economies a e mo e apt to ecip ocatemilita ! challenges b! othe states and become involved in violentinte state con icts) 3he results also sho7 that theo ies f om the C isis& ca cit!pe spective lack e(planato ! powe linking .DF g owth ates to waat the state level of anal!sis) 3his is not to say thai such theories co! letely lac% ex lanatory

o7er in 'eneral$ but !ore articularly that the! cannot di ectl! link economic g owthates to state behavio in violent inte state con icts . In contrast$ theo iesof dive siona ! con ict ma! 7ell hold some ex lanatory powe , although not

ega ding .DF g owth in a gene al test of states f om all egions ofthe wo ld ac oss time) Perha s dive siona ! theo ! bette e(plains statebehavio s sho t of wa , whe e the costs of e(te nali>ing domestictensions do not become too costl!, or in relation to the forei'n olicies of articularcountries. In !any circu!stances$ engaging in a wa to dive t attention awa! f omdomestic conditions would seemingl! e(ace bate domestic c isisconditions unless the chances of victo ! we e p acticall! assu ed ./onetheless$ this study does sho7 that do!estic con&ict is associated 7ith interstate con&ict. Ifdive siona ! con ict theo ! has an! t action as an econo!ic ex lanation of violentinterstate con&icts , it ma! equi e the stud! of othe e(plan ato ! va iablesbesides ove all .DF g owth ates $ such as une! loy!ent or in&ation rales. 3he contributionof this article has been to exa!ine ro ositions about econo!ic 'ro7th in a 'lobal study. ost e(istingstudies on this topic focus on onl! the United tates, samples ofcount ies that a e mo e developed on ave age "due to data availability in the ast#$o a e based on histo ical info mation and not economic .DF data .

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801#tabModule]JAKEhttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801#tabModule]JAKE

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[AUTHOR NAMEhile I have sho7n that there is no stron' evidence lin%in' !ilitary ex enditures to violent interstate con&icts at

the state level of analysis$ !uch of the re!ainin' 4ro7th-as-Catalyst ers ective is 'rounded in ro ositions thatare not directly 'er!ane to 1uestions about state con&ict behavior$ such as those lin%in' state behavior to lon'-cycles$ or those that re!ain at the syste!ic level. hat ans7er re!ains lin%in' econo!ic 'ro7th to 7ar once 7eeli!inate !ilitary ex enditures as an ex lanationO Considerin' that the conce t of forei'n olicy !ood is di?cult toidentify and !easure$ and that the bul% of the literature relies solely on the 2!erican historical ex erience$ I do notrely on that conce t. It is still ossible that such !oods a ect so!e decision-!a%ers. Instead$ si!ilar to >lainey$ I

@nd that economic g owth, when sustained ove a st etch of !ea s, hasits st ongest e. De 4reene is a rofessor at the Institute of )afety and )yste!sMana'e!ent$ (niversity of )outhern California$ ()2. 53o7ard /e7 Conce tual Models of theKondratiev Pheno!enon9 *++ htt :;;di'a!o.free.fr;deve0as . df W J2KE LEE

Instabilit!, for both better and 7orse$ seems immanent in the ?C f om thete minal Z pa t of the stage of dep ession to the middle of the stageof p ospe it! . /o7$ as ` hu!an%ind6s i! act on Earth enetrates all as ects of /ature$ BinternationalstabilityB ` assu!es an even !ore 'lobal and o!inous !eanin'. 3hrou'hout history$ 7ars have been ` fou'ht overland$ 7ater$ !inerals$ and so forth. F eventing i!!inent ma0o wa s !ay be ` beyond hu!an

ca ability with out radical and evolutiona ! new thinking . ` It see!s unli%ely that thetechnolo'ically advanced nations will go to wa a'ainst one ` another in the near future.Patterns leadin' to such !a. De 4reene ; 3o7ard /e7 Conce tualModels of the ?ond atiev Fhenomenonof the clutte o noise caused b!continuing gue illa wa s, wa s fo ethnic libe ation, and Z the so&called wa on te o ism) o7ever , inte vention b! the technolo'ically advanced` count ies in these smalle wa s ma! lead to the passing of somec itical th eshold and ` e(plosion into 9o ld 9a III . Ahe U nited tates isp esentl! the ma0o inte vening nation, ` but it seems likel! that2ussia, China, India, and erha s G a>il will also pla! such oles in ` the nearfuture as their internal situations imp ove . 2ll nations !ust reali0e that 7ar cannot ` be 7on$ only

revented. /ote the analo'y 7ith virus diseases that can be revented throu'h ` inoculation but not cured.(nfortunately$ there are as ects of hu!anity that su''est that ` hu!anity is not a learnin' syste! V=W$ V= W.V +W$V ,W$ V *W$ and 7e can as% 7hy the (nited̀ )tates insists on ursuin' !ilitary actions on six continents$ actionsthat accrue to a ` 7orsenin' of social and environ!ental conditions and erha s the founderin' of ` de!ocracyitself V ,$ V =W. 3he (.). is the 7orld6s !ost o7erful country--indeed$ the !ost ` o7erful in history. )he faces no!a

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[AUTHOR NAMEthe momentum . 2s Lord 2cton6s 7arned: Po7er corru ts and ` absolute o7er corru ts absolutely. Part ofthese dyna!ics of course ste!s fro! the ` li!itations i!!anent in all bureaucracies. >ureaucrats 7ill not useinfor!ation that ` challen'es the 7ay they are used to doin' business. r'ani0ations try to solve B%no7n `

roble!s B7hile i'norin' roble!s they do not understand V W

C) 2esou ce wa sTrainer 10 V3ed 3rainer is a Con

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[AUTHOR NAMEothe wise lost to p oduction) 9ate esou ces, 'sh and fo ests a e

apidl! becoming mo e sca ce . 3here 7ill be !uch 'reater de!and for these biolo'icalresources in the near future. o7ever the !ost serious roble!s are robably 'oin' to be set by the ea%in' of

etroleu! su ly$ ossibly bet7een *++ and *+,+. ")eehtt :;;social7or%.arts.uns7.edu.au;ts7;D+A3hePetroleu!)it.ht!l# ` --- If all the people the wo ldwill p obabl! have b! 7#7 we e to have the pe capita esou ceconsumption that people in ich count ies ave age now, de!and forresources 7ould be about A ti!es as 'reat as it is no7. ` ...and eve !one, including evenpeople in the ichest count ies, is obsessed with inc easing livingstanda ds, economic output, p oduction and consumption andaMuence as fast as possible and without end [` 3he inesca able conclusion:- ` hileall arties re!ain dedicated to 'reater and 'reater aUuence re'ardless of ho7 rich they already are$ and there areno7here near enou'h resources to enable all to be as aUuent as the rich are no7$ there can be no outco!e otherthan increasin' co! etition and con&ict bet7een nations for resources and !ar%ets. ` In othe wo ds,global peace is not possible unless the e is movement towa ds asociet! in which we can all live well on fa lowe pe capita esou ceuse ates than at p esent)

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[AUTHOR NAME

E(ts – tate 2esolve. owth encou ages ove con'dence and c!clical violenceYmakes wa mo e likel! and seve eGoehme , L17 VCharles >oeh!er is a Ph.D. in Political )cience fro! Pennsylvania )tate (niversity$5Econo!ic 4ro7th and Qiolent International Con&ict: ,A -, $9htt :;;777.tandfonline.co!;doi;full;,+.,+A+;,+* * + += AA+,TtabModuleW

3he earliest literature redictin' that econo!ic 'ro7th leads to 7ar dates bac% nearly a century. 3he basic the!e advanced is thatecono!ic 'ro7th ex ands 7ar-!a%in' capabilit! . 3his is %no7n as the 7ar-chest ro osition’. /i%olaiKondratie ", * # associated the fre1uency of 7ar and other social u heavals to lon'-cycles’ in the 'lobal econo!y of rou'hly *year hases of econo!ic 'ro7th follo7ed by contractions of si!ilar len'th. )cholars in econo!ics and olitical science havetheori0ed that the o7er ca abilities of states$ articularly the !alainey’s ", AA# analysis su''ests that the 7ar chest’ the!e can be'enerali0ed to the state level of analysis. Kennedy ", A # also o ers a historical discussion of the 7ar chest the!e to ex lain therise and fall of !alainey

ar'ues that econo!ic g owth pe ve ts pe ceptions of powe , leading states tobe mo e optimistic about thei chances of victo ! in international contests. 5 hilethere !ay be no clear attern to 7ar$ one clue’ 7e have is that o ti!is! abounds at their onset9 ">lainey$ , AA: ,#. Econo!ic'ro7th increases o ti!is! that states 7ill triu! h in international crises$ leadin' to a hei'htened ris% of 7ar. >lainey atte! ted tobe syste!atic in his revie7 of history usin' infor!al case studies or exa! les to su ort his hy othesis$ althou'h fe7 studies haveunderta%en a si!ilar test usin' 1uantitative data. ence$ this study see%s to test >lainey’s ro osition$ 7hich is !ost a ro riate atthe !onadic level of analysis.

Empi icall! p ovenYg owth makes states ove estimatest ength, makes all con icts violentGoehme , L17 VCharles >oeh!er is a Ph.D. in Political )cience fro! Pennsylvania )tate (niversity$5Econo!ic 4ro7th and Qiolent International Con&ict: ,A -, $9htt :;;777.tandfonline.co!;doi;full;,+.,+A+;,+* * + += AA+,TtabModuleW

)till$ states often ex erience econo!ic 'ro7th$ 7hereas violent interstate con&icts are rare events. I do not ar'ue that econo!ic'ro7th is a 'eneral and direct source of con&ict bet7een states. I contend instead that g owth acts as a catal!st $

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242690903568801

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[AUTHOR NAMEourin' fuel on @res 7here con&icts have already co!!enced . Econo!ic 'ro7th should

in&uence the erce tions state leaders have about their state’s erfor!ance. I ar'ue that econo!ic 'ro7th acts as a catalyst forviolent interstate con&icts by increasin' the 7illin'ness of states to use !ilitary force in forei'n olicy$

articularly to reci rocate !ilitari0ed threats and uses of force or to escalate con&icts in aviolent !anner. Most and )tarr ", A : **# de@ne 7illin'ness as 5the 7illin'ness to choose "even if the choice is no action#$and to e! loy available ca abilities to further so!e olicy o tion over others.9 Most and )tarr situate 7illin'ness a'ainst abac%'round of o ortunity’. /aturally$ not all states have the sa!e o ortunity to realistically choose olicies that lead to interstateviolence or 7ar$ at least 7ith an e1ual chance of victory.

ence$ the o ortunity for 7ar varies for states. Later I 7ill resent control variables for con&ict o ortunities but for no7 7ill notethat so!e factors increase or decrease o ortunity$ and are i! ortant here. ur 'oal !ust be to isolate and control for o ortunityvariables. First$ states that are !alainey$ , AA#H I sus ect econo!ic 'ro7th increases this resolve to stand a'ainst challen'es fro!other states and to escalate crises.

inland went to wa with the U 2 because of its refusal to ac1uiesce to territorialde!ands !ade by the )oviets. 3he )oviets initiated 7ar in , = after their .DF 're7 by A. N in the rior @ve years. 3he Finnishecono!y had 'ro7n by . N over the sa!e eriod. un'ary stood its 'round by reci rocatin' )oviet threats thatescalated to 7ar in , . un'arian 'ro7th had been . N over the rior @ve years and )oviet 4DP 'ro7th 7as

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[AUTHOR NAMEIn the !anifold classi'cations of genocide $ so!e include a s eci@c econo!ic obae and tt "*++A# ar'ue that mass killings "nots eci@cally 'enocide# a e motivated b! the leade s@ e(pectations of gain) 2'ain ,in common with so!e @ndin's on civil wa , some have pointed to economicdep ession as p edisposing to genocide "Midlars%y *++ #"Qalentino *+++#. oe(ample, in the .e man holocaust, the dep ession of the , *+s and , =+s

was an impo tant facto behind ;itle @s popula it!, and thus anindi ect cause of the genocide .

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[AUTHOR NAME

NC ? 9ave Impact99III will use nuclea weaponsYe(tinctionKrieger & Ellisberg 12 VDavid Krie'er is resident of the /uclear 2'e Peace Foundation. DanielEllsber' is a distin'uished senior fello7 at the /uclear 2'e Peace Foundation and a for!er strate'icanalyst for the De art!ent of Defense. e released the Penta'on Pa ers. 3his state!ent re resentsthe authors’ individual vie7s. 3he authors bene@tted 'reatly fro! consultations 7ith )teven )tarr and2lan Roboc%. 53he Potential to Launch orld ar III and Preci itate u!an Extinction: Eradicate 2LLLand-based D M)D2 ’ Missiles9 March * $ *+,* htt :;;777. th!edia.or';*+,*;+=;for-nuclear-security-beyond-seoul-eradicate-land-based-doo!sday-!issiles; W J2KE LEE

Ahe "i o ce ationale fo doing these tests is to ensu e theeliabilit! of the U nuclea dete ent fo ceH but launch& ead! land&

based nuclea &a med ballistic missiles a e the opposite of adete ent to attack . In fact$ their very de loy!ent has the otential to launch 9o ld 9a IIIand p ecipitate human e(tinction 8 as a result of a false alar!. ` e’re not exa''eratin'.ere’s 7hy: 3hese nuclear !issiles are @rst-stri%e 7ea ons 8 !ost of the! 7ould not survive a nuclear attac%. In

the event of a 7arnin' of a Russian nuclear attac%$ there 7ould be an incentive to launch all + of theseMinute!an !issiles before the inco!in' ene!y 7arheads could destroy the! in their silos. ` If thewa ning tu ned out to be false Bthe e have been man! falsewa nings , and the U missiles we e launched befo e the e o wasdetected, 9o ld 9a III would be unde wa! . 3he Russians have the sa!e incentive tolaunch their land-based !issiles u on 7arnin' of a erceived attac%. ` >oth () and Russian land-based !issilesre!ain constantly on hi'h-alert status$ ready to be launched 7ithin !inutes. >ecause of the =+-!inute &i'ht ti!esof these !issiles$ the residents of both the () and Russia 7ould have only a roxi!ately ,* !inutes to decide7hether to launch their !issiles 7hen resented by their !ilitary leaders 7ith infor!ation indicatin' an i!!inentattac% "after lo7er-level threat assess!ent conferences#. ` Ahat@s onl! 1 minutes o less fothe p esident to decide whethe to launch global nuclea wa ) hile thisscenario is unli%ely$ it is de@nitely ossible: Presidents have re eatedly rehearsed it$ and it cannot be ruled out dueto the 'raveness of its otential conse1uences. ` Russia ca!e close to launchin' its !issiles based on a 7arnin'that ca!e Jan. * $ , . President eltsin 7as a7a%ened in the !iddle of the ni'ht and told a () !issile 7asheaded to7ard Mosco7. Fortunately$ eltsin 7as sober and too% lon'er than the ti!e allocated for his decision on7hether to launch Russian nuclear-ar!ed !issiles in res onse. ` In the e(tended time, itbecame clea that the missile was a weathe sounding ocket f omNo wa! and not a U missile headed towa d osco 7. Disaster 7as only narro7lyaverted. `

http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/03/for-nuclear-security-beyond-seoul-eradicate-land-based-doomsday-missiles/http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/03/for-nuclear-security-beyond-seoul-eradicate-land-based-doomsday-missiles/http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/03/for-nuclear-security-beyond-seoul-eradicate-land-based-doomsday-missiles/http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/03/for-nuclear-security-beyond-seoul-eradicate-land-based-doomsday-missiles/

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[AUTHOR NAME

E(ts – ?&9aves" huge upswing would t igge a con ictNarkus 12 V)arunas /ar%us is fro! the (niversity of slo 3his a er 7as his !aster thesis for thede'ree of Master of Philoso hy in Environ!ental and Develo !ent Econo!ics 5Kondratie $ /. and)chu! eter$ Jose h 2. lon'-7aves theory 2nalysis of lon'-cycles theory9 May *+,*htt s:;;777.duo.uio.no;bitstrea!;handle;,+A *;=A,+ ;)arunas-/ar%us. dfOse1uence , W J2KE LEE

` Ahe d!namic of wa s and postwa dep essions is bein' broadly reali0ed in thehisto ! of Z No th "me ica . 3he existence of wa cente ed c!cles occu ing eve !'ft! to si(t! !ea s is Z undisputed) >esides that$ it is clear that several ost7ar de ressions 7hich could be se arated ` by erasof 'ood feelin's follo7 after each 7ar. ?ond atie< established the causes and Z consequences of wa s as the phenomenon of economic life =+. 3he eriodic natureof wa s was Z one of elements in his calculation when sea ching fothe evidence of long wave s ">arnett$ ` , A$ . ,+ #.` ?ond atie< came to theconclusion that wa s and postwa dep essions se ve not onl! as ` components of long wave . >esides that they !i'ht be a conse1uence 7hich %ee s the Lon' ` 7ave !ovin' ) ;e calledthat wa s a e natu al p oduct caused b! capitalist count ies: Z J9a sand evolutions in uence the cou se of economic development ve !st ongl! . o7ever ` 7ars and revolutions do not co!e out of a clear s%y. Rather they are not caused by arbitrary ` acts of indiv

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