Dealing with Small Arms: Dealing with Small Arms: Scope and InitiativesScope and Initiatives

Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey, Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey, GenevaGeneva

OutlineOutline What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?

A Global SnapshotA Global Snapshot

Direct Effects: Death and InjuryDirect Effects: Death and Injury

Indirect Effects and CostsIndirect Effects and Costs

Tackling the ProblemTackling the Problem

Unfinished Business and the Way ForwardUnfinished Business and the Way Forward

What are Small Arms and What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?Light Weapons?

Small Arms: handguns, rifles, carbines, assault rifles, machine guns

Light Weapons: heavy machine guns, RPGs, MANPADS over 100mm

Source: UN Group of Governmental Experts, 1997

A Global SnapshotA Global Snapshot

1,130 companies in 98 countries 1,130 companies in 98 countries involved in some aspect of production, involved in some aspect of production, components, repaircomponents, repair

Legal trade worth pproximately $4 Legal trade worth pproximately $4 billion/yearbillion/year

up to one-third is ammunitionup to one-third is ammunition

Illegal trade worth?? – perhaps $1 Illegal trade worth?? – perhaps $1 billionbillion

At least 875 At least 875 million weapons million weapons held worldwideheld worldwide

Who has the Who has the guns:guns:• Approximately Approximately 70% in civilian 70% in civilian handshands• one-quarter in one-quarter in armed forcesarmed forces• a few percent with a few percent with policepolice• … … and less than and less than one percent with one percent with non-state armed non-state armed groupsgroups

Global Distribution: A largelyGlobal Distribution: A largelycivilian arsenalcivilian arsenal

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

More than 300,000 More than 300,000 fatal injuries in 2003fatal injuries in 2003

80-100,000 of these 80-100,000 of these in conflict in conflict

200-270,000 from 200-270,000 from homicide, suicide homicide, suicide and accidentand accident

Young males at high Young males at high riskrisk

Direct Effects by RegionDirect Effects by Region Regional Distribution of Regional Distribution of

homicide/suicidehomicide/suicide(56 countries in 2003)(56 countries in 2003)

15.5

5.9

3.5 3.1

0.41.8 1.5

0.5

3.1

1.1 0.6

5.5

1.4 1.7

0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 Firearm Homicide (per 100,000)

Firearm Suicide (per 100,000)

Gendered Direct EffectsGendered Direct EffectsDistribution of homicide/suicideDistribution of homicide/suicide

(56 countries in 2003)(56 countries in 2003)

2310

37

12

7790

63

88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Homicide FirearmHomicide

Suicide FirearmSuicide

male

Female

Impact Distribution: Impact Distribution: Geography, age and genderGeography, age and gender

Impact Distribution: Urban Impact Distribution: Urban versus Ruralversus Rural

In Brazil:In Brazil:

violence is violence is concentrateconcentrated in large d in large urban urban areas, with areas, with great great inequality, inequality, drug drug trafficking, trafficking, gangs, and gangs, and criminal criminal opportunitieopportunitiess

Indirect EffectsIndirect Effects Excess mortality in Excess mortality in

conflict zones (the vast conflict zones (the vast majority of victims)majority of victims)

Criminal violence: Criminal violence: policing and securitypolicing and security

Costs to health systemCosts to health system

Delivery of basic Delivery of basic services or humanitarian services or humanitarian aid affectedaid affected

Economic opportunity Economic opportunity costscosts

Indirect Indirect deathsdeaths In most conflicts, In most conflicts, indirect deaths indirect deaths make up the make up the majority of victimsmajority of victims

… up to 90 percent of … up to 90 percent of the three million the three million deaths in DRC deaths in DRC between 1999-2003…between 1999-2003…

This “excess This “excess mortality” mortality” depends on access depends on access to food, water, to food, water, shelter and basic shelter and basic health carehealth care

Direct and indirect costs of armed Direct and indirect costs of armed violenceviolence

HumanHuman Social, economic, and other costsSocial, economic, and other costs

Direct Direct Death and injury

Hospital careLost productivity/income Life insurance pay-outInterrupted commerceImpaired tax collection Capital flight Damage to private propertyDamage to infrastructureDamage to agriculture

IndirectIndirect Death and sickness from treatable diseaseDeath and sickness from malnutritionDeath and injury from risk-taking

Lost quality of lifeCare providing (family)Out-patient careMigration/emigration Increased policing IncarcerationHigher insurance ratesHigher commodity pricesLegal servicesReduced GDPLong term productivity/income lossesRe-building property and infrastructureRe-planting/re-stocking agriculture

Cause or symptom?Cause or symptom?Escalatory cycles of armed Escalatory cycles of armed

violenceviolence

Escalating armed violenceEscalating armed violence

Arms racingArms racing Arms acquisitionArms acquisition

Force asymmetriesForce asymmetries

Symptom of Symptom of insecurityinsecurity

Cause of Cause of insecurityinsecurity

Four major sources:Four major sources:State collapse during warState collapse during warRe-cycling from past warsRe-cycling from past warsArming of civilians in response to threatsArming of civilians in response to threatsSupport to foreign armed groupsSupport to foreign armed groups

Key role of the State:Key role of the State:• States are the primary source of small arms States are the primary source of small arms

entering the illicit marketentering the illicit market• State transfers to non-state actors and militias State transfers to non-state actors and militias

feed armed group and criminal acquisitionsfeed armed group and criminal acquisitions• Loss and theft from national stockpiles Loss and theft from national stockpiles

remains a key source of arms and ammunition remains a key source of arms and ammunition in many regionsin many regions

Sources of ProliferationSources of Proliferation

Stemming Illicit Trafficking Stemming Illicit Trafficking and Useand Use

Arms production

legal sales to other

governments

legal transfers to domestic non-state actors (individuals,

brokers, etc.)

acquisitions by national

arsenals in producer states

Licensed arms

production

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

re-exports to other regional

states

Legend:

Weapons production

points of interventio

n

legal acquisitions

major pipeline pipeline that could includelicit and/or illicit transfers

illicit pipeline

Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,

export policies

domestic "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of

producers' arsenals to non-state actors

licit and/or illicit acquisitions

secondary "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of

recipients' arsenals to non-state actors

acquisitions by non- national, non-state

actors: insurgent groups,

organized crime, private security forces,

private dealers, individuals

Marking & transparency

measures

re-exports to other non-state actors: insurgent groups organized crime

private security forces private dealers

individuals

Legislation regulating brokers

Marking &transparency measures

Regional accords, codes of conduct

Prohibit transfers to non-state

actors

Prohibit transfers to non-state

actors

Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,

export policies

Increased transpare

ncy

Increased transparency

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

Legislation regulating brokers

points of interventio

n

points of intervention

Tackling the Problem: Key Tackling the Problem: Key InitiativesInitiatives

UN Programme of Action (2001)UN Programme of Action (2001)

UN Firearms Protocol (2001, 2005)UN Firearms Protocol (2001, 2005)

UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcementand Firearms by Law Enforcement

OAS Firearms Convention/Model OAS Firearms Convention/Model RegulationsRegulations

European Union initiativesEuropean Union initiatives

OSCE Document on SALWOSCE Document on SALW

ECOWAS Convention, SADC and Nairobi ECOWAS Convention, SADC and Nairobi ProtocolsProtocols

““FirstFirst Generation”Generation”(Supply) (Supply) MeasuresMeasures

Marking, record-keeping and tracing of Marking, record-keeping and tracing of SALWSALW

Export control initiatives: TCI, ATT, etc.Export control initiatives: TCI, ATT, etc. Stockpile management and securityStockpile management and security Weapons destruction, both surplus and Weapons destruction, both surplus and

post-conflictpost-conflict Ammunition (in all its dimensions)Ammunition (in all its dimensions) MANPADSMANPADS End-user certificationEnd-user certification Brokering (including transport/financial Brokering (including transport/financial

agents)agents)

““SecondSecond Generation” (Generation” (Demand) Demand) MeasuresMeasures

Demand for small arms (state and non-Demand for small arms (state and non-state)state)

Small arms and developmentSmall arms and development Small arms and armed violence Small arms and armed violence

reductionreduction Disarmament, Demobilization and Disarmament, Demobilization and

Reintegration Reintegration Small arms and Security Sector ReformSmall arms and Security Sector Reform Victim assistanceVictim assistance

(and gender dimension of all of these topics)

““Unfinished Business”Unfinished Business”

Transparency in production, Transparency in production, transfers, stocks and holdingstransfers, stocks and holdings

Weapons transfers to non-state Weapons transfers to non-state armed groupsarmed groups

National regulation of civilian National regulation of civilian possessionpossession

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward

Develop instruments to deal with Develop instruments to deal with remaining first generation issuesremaining first generation issues

Synchronize processes and reportingSynchronize processes and reporting

Elaborate second generation measures Elaborate second generation measures and practical violence reduction and practical violence reduction programmesprogrammes

Set benchmarks or goals for progress to Set benchmarks or goals for progress to 20202020

Small Arms SurveySmall Arms Survey

www.smallarmssurvey.orgwww.smallarmssurvey.org