death decline spiral pictures 2 (1)
TRANSCRIPT
Decoding Death:Connecting climate and growth to
predict tree mortality across
species
Heidi SwansonBiology Senior Seminar
April 16, 2015
I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
2
WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable
3
4
(sometimes)
unluckylucky
5
Trees can die
catastrophically…
6
7http://news.ubc.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2013/05/601474937_1f726929ed_o.j
pg
…or they can die
after a long, hard
battle.
8
https://cla.umn.edu/news-
events/story/evidence-suggests-
california%E2%80%99s-drought-worst-1200-
Trees struggle through
droughts. Water is
crucial for survival,
though some species
are more tolerant/use
water more efficiently.
9Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
10Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
Can we
figure out
how many
are going to
make it?
A few
rugged
survivors
CLIMATE MORTALITY
11
(temperature,
drought)(who dies???)
?????
?????CLIMATE MORTALITY
12
(temperature,
drought)(who dies???)
???
13Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
Can we
figure out
how many
are going to
make it?
A few
rugged
survivors
14
WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable
15
WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable but poorly understood
16
NOT ALL TREES WILL KICK THE
BUCKET…
17(Pedersen et al.
1999)
18Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
What’s
different
about them?
A few
rugged
survivors
GROWTH MORTALITY
19
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(who dies)
SYMPTOM
WHAT AFFECTS HOW
TREES GROW?
• Competition, disturbance,
climate…
• Structural limitations (Koch et al. 2004)
20
CLIMATE GROWTH
21
(a proxy for vigor)
CLIMATE – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)
PREDICTOR
GROWTH MORTALITY
22
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(who dies)
SYMPTOM
CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
23
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
24
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
WHAT AFFECTS HOW
TREES GROW?
• Competition, disturbance, climate…
• Structural limitations (Koch et al. 2004)
25
26
GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
27
GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
28
GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
r
r2
r3
29
….Or unconstrained growth across
lifespan? (Stephenson et al. 2014)
GROWTH PATTERNS: HYPOTHESIS OF
THE RENEGADES
30
….Or unconstrained growth across
lifespan? (Stephenson et al. 2014)
GROWTH PATTERNS: HYPOTHESIS OF
THE RENEGADES
403 different
species?!?
Six
continents?!?
673,046 trees?!?
31
CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
32
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
(BUT NOT
FLAWLESS)
crude
INTER-SPECIES TRADEOFFS
Loehle et al. (1988)
• Slow-growing species
often live longer than
fast-growing pioneer
species in the absence
of drought
• Growth/defense
tradeoffs
33
34
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
?????
Slow-growing,
?????
Slow-growing,
?????
Fast-growing,
?????
vs
vsvs
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
• How do different growth rates between individuals within a species affect mortality/longevity?
• Can we use climate variables to predict species-specific mortality?
35
I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
36
BIGLER AND VEBLEN (2009)
Do fast-growing
conifer
individuals live
shorter lives than
slow-growing
individuals of the
same species?
37http://en.es-static.us/upl/2011/03/tall_short_trees.jpg
METHODS
• Roosevelt National Forest (Colorado); Davos, Switzerland
• Sampled all standing dead
• Subalpine fir (70 trees), Engelmann spruce (50 trees), Norway spruce (41 trees)
• Two increment cores per tree
• Crossdating
38http://www.planat.ch/uploads/pics/p0134_02.jpg
METHOD: RADIAL
INCREMENT
MEASUREMENTS
39Xylem rings
Vascular
cambium phloem
bark
0.4
mm
0.2
mm
0.3
mm
0.5 mm
0.6
mm
0.4 mm
0.4 mm
Ring # Width
0 0.3
1 0.4
2 0.5
3 0.2
4 0.6
5 0.4
6 0.4
40
Year Width
2008 0.3
2009 0.4
2010 0.5
2011 0.2
2012 0.6
2013 0.4
2014 0.4
HOW DO WE DATE DEAD
TREES?
41
• Cross-dating
HOW DO WE DATE DEAD
TREES?
• Cross-dating
42
HOW DO WE VERIFY OUR
DATES?
Quality control – with software
Identify errors in measurement
• Correlation analysis of each successive segment
• Test segments of series against same segments of master dating series created from all other series
12x magnification of European buckthorn rings
43
SIZE OF SHORT-LIVED VS. LONG-LIVED
INDIVIDUALS
44
EFFECTS OF EARLY GROWTH RATES
ON LONGEVITY
45
46
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
short-lived
Slow-growing,
long-lived
Slow-growing,
?????
Fast-growing,
?????
vs
vsvs
IRELAND ET AL. (2014)
Are early growth
rates in quaking
aspen predictive
of longevity?
47http://99viral.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Quaking-Aspen.jpg
METHODS
• Kaibab National Forest – northern Arizona
• Aspen/fir/pine forests
• Increment cores from both living and standing dead overstory
aspen
48
GROWTH RATES FOR LIVE VS. DEAD
TREES
49
Live
Dead
EARLY AND LIFETIME GROWTH
RATES FOR LIVE VS. DEAD TREES
50
First 50 years
Lifetime
51
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
short-lived
Slow-growing,
long-livedSlow-growing,
short-lived
Fast-growing,
long-lived
vs
vs vs
I. Introduction to tree longevity
II. Growth/mortality relationships
III. Drought/growth relationships
IV. European Buckthorn
V. Final thoughts
52
OUTLINE
CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
53
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
WYCKOFF AND BOWERS
2010
• Three sites: Maplewood State Park, Glacial Lakes State Park, Sibley State Park
• Bur oak
• 52 trees for climate growth
• 33 dead and 30 living trees for growthmortality
54
STUDY SITES
Maplewood State Park,
Glacial Lakes State Park,
Sibley State Park
55
56
PDSI
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX (PDSI)
CLIMATE GROWTH
57
In drought
conditions,
growth rates
are low.
WETDRY WETDRY
58
DIVERGENCE IN GROWTH: LIVING
VS. DEAD TREES
GROWTH MORTALITY
59
When growth
rates are low,
the probability
of mortality is
high.
CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
60
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
CLIMATE MORTALITY
61
Prediction: In
drought
conditions, the
probability of
mortality is
high
I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
62
EUROPEAN
BUCKTHORN
63
• Non-native, pervasive
species in MN
• Will its spread be
facilitated by climate
change?
• No studies on
buckthorn growth
response to climate
METHODS
Destructive removal
• 30 – 40 European
buckthorn trees per
site
• Ginseng Road Farm,
Niemackl Lake Park,
Monson Lake State
Park
64
METHODS
65
METHODS
66
METHODS
Dating
• Initially assume
last year = 2014
for all trees, plot
ring width
increments in
Excel for internal
cross-dating
67
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1996 2001 2006 2011
Tree 1
GRF1b1 GRF1b2 GRF1a1 GRF1a2
68
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1995 2000 2005 2010
Tree 1
GRF1a1
GRF1a2
GRF1b1
GRF1b2
METHODS
• Use COFECHA to identify false/missing rings, obtain
accurate dated series
69
METHODS
Detrend with ARSTAN
Remove age-related growth trends and retain climate signal
70http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~sheppard/workshop/quant.gif
71
GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
METHODS
Detrend with ARSTAN
Remove age-related growth trends and retain climate signal
72http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~sheppard/workshop/quant.gif
73
y = 0.0234x + 0.983R² = 0.3566
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Rad
ial g
row
th (
detr
en
ded
)
Palmer Drought Severity (PDSI) Index
July Drought (PDSI) versus Detrended European Buckthorn Growth
DRY WET
74
SEEDLING PLOTS
75-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Re
lati
ve G
row
th R
ate
PDSI Index
Ash
Bur Oak
EuropeanBuckthorn
DRY WET
Drought vs lifetime average growth across
species
76
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0246810121416
Ave
rag
e r
ad
ial g
row
th (
mm
yr-
1)
Years before coring
Average annual radial growth trends for living and recently dead trees
Dead Live
Live vs dead: no
gap
Live vs dead: wide gap
77
y = 0.0199x + 0.0849R² = 0.8236
y = 0.0309x + 0.0324R² = 0.8701
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Lif
eti
me a
vera
ge g
row
th r
ate
(m
m y
r-1)
Diameter (DBH)
Lifetime Average Growth Rates of Live and Dead Trees Across Sizes
Dead Live
I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
CONCLUSIONS
• No universal growth-mortality relationship
• Tradeoffs between growth and longevity
• Species differ in their drought response
• Buckthorn more sensitive to summer drought (relative to
other species) than expected
79
FUTURE RESEARCH?
• What makes buckthorn respond the way it does?
• Compare buckthorn’s response to that of native species
• Other sites?
• Seasonal responses?
• How will differences in drought response between species
affect their competitive interactions?
80
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• Peter Wyckoff
• UMM Biology faculty
• Friends & family
81
82
QUESTIONS