debate round all-state

7/24/2019 Debate Round All-State

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1NC


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1NCThe risk of a successful attack on the homeland is highin the status quo.Domestic surveillance capabilities are absolutel vital to deterrence and

disruption.

!t"ioni #1$ [Amitai. Elliott School faculty member specializing in Sociological analysis of internationalrelations, civil society, and transnational norms at George Washington University. !SA" !ationalSecurity vs #ndividual $ights%Intelligence and National Security, &ol '( !). Winter *()+. Available via

the University of ichigan -ibraries

/hose 0ho hold that terrorism has much subsided can dra0 on 1resident 2bama3s statements./he 1resident announced in ay *()' that 4the core of Al 5aeda in Afghanistan and 1a6istan is on the path to defeat. /heir remaining operatives spend more timethin6ing about their o0n safety than plotting against us7,*) and echoing this sentiment in August 0hen he stated that 4core Al 5aeda is on its heels, has beendecimated7.** Administration officials have been similarly optimistic regarding the diminished terror threat.*' And he 4pivoted7 US foreign policy a0ay from a focuson the iddle East in favor of a focus on East Asia.*8 9o0ever, since then there has been a steady stream of reports that suggest that much remains to be done in

facing terrorism, indeed that Al 5aeda is rebuilding its strength and that the pivot to the :ar East may 0ell have been premature.; Core %l &aeda isre'roupin'under the banner of 4Al 5aeda in the Arabian 1eninsula7 ?a0ahiri has ta6en over 2sama bin -aden3s vacated position. #thas e@pandedfrom *(('(( members in *((B to over )((( today.*+ /his group 0as behind the 4most specific andcredible threat7since the attac6s on BC)), 0hich led to the closure of dozens of American embassies across the iddle East.*D And it managed to captureand control significant territory in emen.*F;Al 5aeda affiliates are gro0ing in strength and spreading into

additional nations.* Al 5aeda increasingly is relying on a decentralized net0or6 of collaborating terrorist affiliates.*B Affiliates include groups inAfrica


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Counterterrorism requires time to capture other members of the cell beforethe reali"e that one of their members has been apprehended , to decipher their records, and toprevent other attac6s that might be under0ay. Also security demands that authorities do not reveal their meansand methods, hence often one cannot allo0 terrorists to face their accusers. fifth of 0hich 0ere to be carried out 0ithin the borders of the United States.8B 9o0ever, critics haveIuestioned these statistics, e@pressing s6epticism regarding the reliability of government officials3 testimony+( and the adeIuacy of the th0arted plots as a metric ofefficacy.+) /he Iuestion ho0 to ensure the validity of these and other government claims is addressed belo0 in 1art #&.; Hritics especially 0onder about phonesurveillance.+* Some point out that the program 0as not the 4primary7 tool in averting any terrorist attac6.+' 9o0ever, this criticism can be leveled against anyprogram or instrument used by la0 enforcement authorities or national security agencies. Surely police cruisers or :J# files or even the 0hole Air :orce are often but

one instrument that, in conKunction 0ith others, bring about the reIuired outcomes.; /here are scores of situations in 0hichphone records 0ould obviously be of much help , even if they alone 0ere not sufficient in preventing an attac6 or in findingthose 0ho committed acts of terror. /o illustrate" 0hen the authorities caught one of the t0o /sarnaev brothers volume, cumbersome, and unreliable 0ay of communicationand commandM in effect, preventing

bin -aden from serving as an effective commander>in>chief of Al 5aeda. oreover, once the H#A deduced that using a messenger 0as the only 0ay left for him to

communicate trac6ing the messenger led to bin -aden3s do0nfall.++; Additional evidence publically available that the !SA programs forcedterrorists to limit their communicationsis gleaned from reports that follo0ing the revelation that the United States interceptedthe communications of Ayman al>?a0ahiri, there (as a sharp decline in %l &aeda0selectronic communications.+D; #n short, 0e have seen that there continues to be a serious threat of

terrorism to national securityM that terrorists cannot be handled li6e other criminalsand tocounter themdistinct measures are best emploedM and that surveillance programsli6e 1$#Sand the phone surveillance programsmake a si'nificant contribution to curbin' terrorism. #n shortthese programsdo enhance one core element of the liberal communitarian

balance. /he ne@t Iuestion the article addresses is the e@tent they undermine the other core element.; 1art ###" 1hone Surveillance of Americans; /he!SA3s phone surveillance program is a scheme involving the bul6 collection of metadata from maKor telephone providers. /hese records collected from at least three maKor phone companies+F include the numbers dialed by Americans and the durationof each call, but not the content of the calls.+ /he phone surveillance program has been deemed as violating individual rights on several different grounds, 0hich arene@t revie0ed.; A. /hird>1arty Loctrine; /he collection of phone records has been Kustified on the basis of the third>party doctrine. #t holds that once a person

voluntarily discloses a fact to another party, he or she forfeits all :ourth Amendment protection 0hen it comes to the disclosed information, as he or she no longer hasa reasonable e@pectation of privacy once that information has been disclosed.+B $elevant cases include United States v. iller


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0hat other number, the times the calls 0ere placed, and their duration but no more.

Americans send to each other as opposed reading their mail a practice that is, in fact, regularly carried out in bul6 by the United States 1ostal Service. #ndeed, the1ostal Service 4photographs the e@terior of every piece of paper mail that is processed in the United States7, and saves the recorded data for an un6no0n amount of

time.D; /he governmentreports that it collects and stores phone records in order to have rapidaccess 0hen needed, and to stitch together various dataM for some reason neglecting to mention that the phone companies 6eep the records only foronly short periods of timeDB 0hile security concerns reIuire longer storage,F( a r ather 0eighty consideration. disclosureorders.* Section *)+ has been cited in a ruling by a :#SH court upholding the legality of the !SA3s phone records collection program.' Section *)+ also prohibitsdesignating a person an agent of a foreign po0er and thus, opening them up to electronic surveillance under :#SA based solely on the basis of a protected :irst

Amendment activity. A US person cannot be the subKect of !SA surveillance simply because of 0hat that person says or believes.8 !o evidence has been presented,even follo0ing all the lea6s, that this section has been violated by !SA, in contrast to reports that the #$S has targeted /ea 1arty groups.; ost important, often

ignored by critics, is that the phone surveillance program does follo( the 6ourth %mendmentrule of particularized search. Although the government collects and stores phone records, the calls of no person can be legally scrutinizeduntil it has been established that there are 4facts giving rise to a reasonable articulable suspicion7 that the number to be searched is associated 0ith a foreign terroristorganization.+ /he basis for that suspicion has to be documented in 0riting and approved by one of ** highly>vetted !SA officers.D :ar from granting many such

searches, in *()*, fe0er than '(( proposed searches met the 4reasonable, articulable suspicion7 standard.F; 2n )D Lecember *()', federal district Kudge $ichard N.-eon ruled that the phone records collection program 4most li6ely7 violates the Honstitution. With the ruling, the Kudge ordered that the government halt its collectionof metadata on t0o individuals and destroy their previously>collected records. #n response, former !SA General Hounsel Ste0art Ja6er told the JJH [same day that"

4this is the opinion of one district Kudge and you can find a district Kudge in America 0ho 0ill say almost anything7. /he ruling is sure to be appealed.; #n short, aslong as it is not established that phone surveillance violates the constitution or the la0, and itsintrusiveness is lo0, it should be tolerated.


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consuming and challenging . /here arestrong reasons to have these combinations ta6e place before searches actually need to be carried out. a@es. /he novelty of

our present situation is that modern tech nology can provide small groups of people 0ith

much greater lethality than ever before. Weno0 have to

0orry that private parties might gainaccess to0eapons that are as destructive asRorpossibly even more destructive than Rthoseheld by a ny nation>state . A handful of people , perhaps even a single individual , could have theability to 6illmillions or evenbillions . #ndeed, it is possible, from a technological standpoint, to 6ill every man,

0oman, and child on earth. /he gravity of the situation is so e@treme that getting theconcept across 0ithout seeming silly or alarmist is challenging. Nust thin6ing about the subKect 0ith anydegree of seriousness numbs the mind. /he goal of this essay is to present the case for ma6ing the needed changes before such a catastrophe

occurs. /he issues described here are too important to ignore. :ailing nation>statesRli6e !orth OoreaR0hichpossess nuclear 0eapons potentially pose a nuclear threat. Each ne0 entrant to the nuclear club increases thepossibility this 0ill happen, but this problem is an old one, and one that e@isting diplomatic and military structures aim to manage. /hene0er and less understood danger arises fromthe increasing li6elihood that stateless groups, benton terrorism,0ill gain access to nuclear 0eapons, most li6ely by theft from a nation>state. Should this happen, the danger 0eno0 perceive to be coming from rogue states 0ill pale in comparison. The ultimate

response to a nuclear attack is a nuclear counterattack. !ation states have an address, and they6no0 that 0e 0ill retaliate in 6ind. Stateless groups are much more difficult to find 0hich ma6es a nuclear counterattac6 virtually impossible.

As a result, they can stri6e 0ithout fear of over0helming retaliation, and thus they 0ield much more effective destructive po0er. #ndeed, in

many cases the fundamental eIuation of retaliation has become reversed. /errorists often hope to provo6e reprisalattac6s on their o0n people, s0aying popular opinion in their favor. /he aftermath of BC)) is a case inpoint. While it seems li6ely that 2sama bin -aden and his henchmen hoped for a massiveoverreaction from the United States, it is unli6ely his /aliban hosts anticipated the U.S.

0ould go so far as to invade Afghanistan. es, al>5aeda lost its host state and some personnel. /he damage slo0ed theorganization do0n but did not destroy it. #nstead, the stateless al>5aeda survived and adapted. /he United States can claim some success

against al>5aeda in the years since BC)), but it has hardly delivered a deathblo0. Eventually, the 0orld 0ill recognize that


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stateless groups are more po0erful than nation>statesbecause terrorists can 0ield0eapons and mount assaults that no nationstate 0ould dare to attempt .So far, they have limitedthemselves to dramatic tactical terrorism" events such as BC)), the butchering of $ussian schoolchildren, decapitations broadcast over theinternet, and bombings in maKor cities. Strategic obKectives cannot be far behind.


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1NC

%. nterpretation+ Domestic means phsicall (ithin the ;.7. borders.D


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1NC,oostin' ;.7. internet freedom credibilit si'nals a strate'ic shift to(ardsdemocrac promotion in


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SA#S, 2ctober ', *()), Great 1o0ers and Lemocracy 1romotion,% online"http"CC000.cepa.orgCcedCvie0.asp@PrecordQid')B

2ver the past fe0 months, spurred by the popular uprisings in the iddle East and !orth Africa, U.S.

1resident Jarac6 2bama has seemingly realigned himself 0ith a stron'er pro>democracy stance. 9e indicated asmuch in his ay speech at Westminster 9all in the UO, 0hen he said that the United States stands sIuarely on the side of those

0ho long to be free.% /he challenge is that such support is li6ely tolead to more tense relations (ith

authoritarian Areat Po(ers, contradictin'in many cases this Administration7s desire to

en'a'e or reset relations (ith them. Whether consciously or not, the 2bama Administration

recognizes this tension. /he 1resident7s insistence that he 0ould pursue a different foreign policy from that of his

predecessor has in practice meant thatWashington is see6ing better relations 0ith Great 1o0ers


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American, European and #sraeli political leaders 0ill fear #ranian meddling and the ascendance of pro>/ehran groups or individualsin some of these states R a repeat of the Gaza scenario. #ran, on the other side, may fear the e@act opposite, and a Western push tostrengthen liberal democratic parties in the region 0ill only e@acerbate tensions 0ith /ehran. /he outcome is one of competing

interests bet0een the t0o po0ers R or rather, bet0een #ran and the West, led by the United States R and it 0ill have a significant

impact on the timid democratization efforts of the countries in the region. Whether 0e 0ant it to or not, democrati"ation

cannot be separated from Areat Po(er competition .#n order to be successful in promoting theestablishment of democratic states, 0e need to factor in the li6ely active opposition of other po0ers, such as $ussia, Hhina and #ran.

#ndeed, if (e are to support democrati"ation efforts,0e must be prepared fora hei'htenedcompetition (ith non?democratic Areat Po(ers .:or such po0ers, the establishment of

truly democratic states in their neighborhood represents a ris6y development as it 0ould

Keopardize their ability to e@ercise influence. #t could encourage their o0n populations to see6

greater freedomsM and it 0ould directly challenge the ideological foundation of their regimes .

Cooperative relations (ith risin' 'reat po(ers require the ;.7. to toleratenon?democracies???Western norm?promotion shreds 'lobal cooperation

Hharles @upchan 11, professor of international affairs at Georgeto0n University andWhitney Shepardson Senior :ello0 at the Houncil on :oreign $elations, Nune *()), /hefalse promise of unipolarity" constraints on the e@ercise of American po0er,% Hambridge

$evie0 of #nternational Affairs, &ol. *8, !o. *, p. )D+>)F'

/hese e@amples aside, Jroo6s and Wohlforth also fail to address another important path0ay through 0hich norms and rules

constrain the e@ercise of US po0er. /hey focus e@clusively on the costs to the United States of its o0n failure to comply

0ith the institutions and rules that Washington too6 the lead in crafting after the close of World War ##. Jut in the aftermath

of theglobal Vnancial crisisthat began in *(( and amid the ongoing ascent of Hhina, #ndia, Jrazil, and

other rising states, chan'e in orderin' normsmay 0ellbe driven by thepreferences and

policies of emer'in' po(ers3 not by those of the ;nited 7tates. oreover, the impressive economic

performance and political staying po0er of regimes thatpractice non?democraticbrands of

capitalismRsuch as Hhina, $ussia, and Saudi ArabiaRcall into Iuestion the durability of the

normative order erected during America7s 0atch.Well before emerging po0ers catch up 0ith

America7s material resources,they 0ill bechallen'in' thenormative commitmenttoopen

mar6ets and liberal democracthat has deVned the Western order. /hesubstantive 'ap

bet0een the norms of the Western order and those that inform the domestic and foreign policies

of rising po0ers has not gone unnoticedVrst century7. /he West should 4sin6 the roots of this

order as deeply as possible7to ensure that the 0orld continues to play by its rules even as its material preponderance

0anes. SuchconBdence in the universalit of the Western orderis, ho0ever,based on

(ishful thinkin'about the li6ely traKectory of ascending po0ers30hich throughout history

have sought toad*ust the prevailin' orderin 0ays that advantage their o0n interests.

1resuming that rising states 0ill readily embrace Western norms is not only unrealistic, but also dan'erous, promising toalienate emer'in' po(ersthat 0ill bepivotal to 'lobal

stabilitin the years ahead has given 0ay to the G>*( the prime minister of democratic #ndia has called for

5ne0 global rules of the game% 7 and the 4reform and revitalization7 of international institutions


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!ations Security Houncil is coming under gro0ing pressure to enlarge the voices of emerging po0ers.All of these

developments come at the e@pense of the inuence and normative preferences of the U nited States

and its Western allies. Jy the numbers, Jroo6s and Wohlforth are correct that unipolarity persists. Jutrisin'

po(ers are alread challen'in' the peckin' orderand'uidin' normsof the

international system.#f the ne@t international system is to becharacteri"ed b norm?

'overned order rather than competitive anarch, the West 0illhave to make room

for the competin' visions of risin' po(ers .A ne0 order 0ill have to be based on'reat?

po(er consensusandtoleration of political diversitrather than the normative

he'emon of the West.

!xtinctionHhas W. 6reeman 1/, served in the United States :oreign Service, the State andLefense Lepartments in many different capacities over the course of thirty years, past

president of the iddle East 1olicy Houncil, co>chair of the U.S. Hhina 1olicy:oundation and a -ifetime Lirector of the Atlantic Houncil, BC)'C)8, A !e0 Set ofGreat 1o0er $elationships,% http"CCchasfreeman.netCa>ne0>set>of>great>po0er>

relationshipsC

We live in a time of'reat strate'ic fluidit. Jorders are shifting. -ines of control are blurring. -ong>

established spheres of influence are fading a0ay. Some states are decaying and dissolving as others germinate and

ta6e root. /he global economic order is precarious. !e0 economic and 'eopolitical fault lines are

emerging. /he great po0ers of !orth and South America are barely on spea6ing terms. Europe isagain riven by

geopolitical antagonisms .U6raineshould be a prosperous, independent borderland bet0een the European Union and

$ussia. #t hasinsteadbecome a coc6pit of strategic contention. /he United States and $ussia have

relapsed into hostility. /he post>2ttoman borders of West Asia and !orth Africa are being erased. !either Europeans, nor$ussians, nor Americans can no0 protect or direct their longstanding clients in the iddle East. Jrazil, Hhina, and #ndia are

peacefully competing for the favor of Africa. Jut, in the #ndo>1acific, Hhina and Napan are at daggers dra0n and

striving to ostracize each other. Sino>American relations seem to be follo0ingUS>$ussian relationsinto mutual e@asperation and intransigence. !o one surveying this scene could disagree that the 0orld 0ould

benefit from recraftin' the relationships bet(een its 'reat po(ers. As 1resident Xi Ninping has

proposed, ne0 types of relations might enable the great po0ers tomana'e their interactions to

the common advanta'e (hile lo(erin' the risk of armed conflict. /his is, after all, the

nuclear a'e.A0ar couldend in the annihilation of all (ho take part in it. Short of that,unbridled animosity and contention bet0een great po0ers and their allies and friends have high opportunity costs and foster the

tensions inherent in military posturing, arms races, instability, and impoverishment.


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1NC

The 1ac deplos one of disaster capitalism#s favorite tactics+ impactsdescribin' senseless horror quickl fade as (e catch our breath and return

to a state of normalc. -o(ever3 a trace of that horror remains affectivelembedded (ithin us3 and votin' aff saniti"es a continuous3 lo(?level fear ofeverthin' that hidden b the 1ac. Prefer the affective alter?politicsproduced b the 1nc8assumi 11[Jrian, political theorist, 0riter, and philosopher, 1rofessor of Hritical Empiricism at the

European Graduate School, 1rofessor in the Lepartment of Hommunication Sciences at the University of

ontrTal, April )+, *()), /he half>life of disaster,% The Guardian

/he 0orld 0atched in horror asthe northeast coast of 9onshu 0as sha6en by an earthIua6e of

unimaginable magnitude, then razed by a tsunami of monstrous force. /he natural disaster struc6 0ith a

suddenness defying comprehension. #t is as if a body blo0 to Napan had 6noc6ed the 0ind out of the 0orld. /he hit 0asso sudden as to leave one speechless. 2ne minute, a cityM the ne@t, t0isted metal and rubble. -ife one minuteM death the ne@t. /he

media images sho0ed all there 0as to say" the horror. /he breathta6ing, senseless horrorof it,

surpassin' the human scale of understandin'. /henamid the rubble, life began to stir again. /he

media lens zooms in to the human scale. -anguage regains its descriptive traction . A family finds aloved one against all odds. A volunteer doctor travels ) hours each 0ay to spend a fe0 precious hours of his 0ee6end days off

ministering to the traumatised and 0ounded. A last survivor is pulled from the rubble days after all 0ere feared dead. /he

human stories apply a narrative balm to shock?ra( nerves. /he shoc6 is soon alloyed 0ith admiration

for the Napanese people3s calm and fortitude in the face of the disaster.An affective corner starts to be turned" from

horror to heart (armin'. 2f course, nothing can ever e@punge the horror. t (ill be archived.

/he images of the disaster(ill be held indefinitel in store. :or as long as there is an

internet, they0ill remainavailable for recirculation . #t is not so much that the horror is replaced by

human 0armth and its accompaniments. #t is ratherthat it decasY in the media. /he horror transmutes into a differentaffective element, its intensity halved, then halved again, eventually reducing to trace levels. Globally, the event settles bac6

into a more stable range of the periodic table of collective emotion.What is the half>life of disaster in today3s global

media P At most t0o 0ee6s . The sufferin' on the 'round continues3 and (ill continue

for decades. World attention Iuic6ly shifts else0here. /he /oho6u earthIua6e and tsunami 0ere soon displaced from media

attention by a ne@t unforeseen shoc6" upheaval in -ibya. /his progression is familiar by no0. 9urricanein

-ouisiana, tsunamiin the #ndian 2cean, floodingin Germany, flooding in 1a6istan, firesin Greece, earthIua6ein 9aiti.

/errorist attac6sin !e0 or6, adrid, -ondon, osco0. !atural disaster and terrorism define the polesof

disaster. n bet(een stretches a continuum of disaster, a plenum of frightful events of infinite

variety, at every scale, coming one after the other in an endless series . /he media plays its role of affective

conversion 0ith a regularity that is as predictable as each event in the series, ta6en separately, is shoc6ingly unforeseen. :irst the

affective stri6e of the event isinstantaneously transmitted, cutting a shoc6ed>and>a0ed hol e ofhorror into the fabric of the everda. /he ability to ma6e sense of events is suspended in a momentary hiatus

of humanly unbearable, unspea6able horror. /hen comes the zoom>in to the human detail. Stories get human

traction. The horror is alloed3 its impact archived. Another event has been affectively conveyed 0ith

irruptive, interruptive force, only to subside into the bac6ground of everyday life.What remains is a continuous3

lo(?level fear. /his fear doesn3t stand out clearly as an emotion. #t is more li6e a habitual

posture, an almost bodilybracing for the ne@t unforeseen blo0, a tensing infusing every move and every moment

0ith a vague foreboding. /his trace >form anticipation this post>shoc6 pre>posturing becomes the ver


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medium of everda life. /he environment of life is increasingly lived as a diffuse and foreboding Ythreat

environmentY.t is almost a relief (hen the next hit comes. #t is only another bout of disaster that 0ill

enable the narrative balm to calm again the collective nerves of a humanity permanently on lo0>level boil. This fear defies

a collective response. When response is re>enabled, it is on the individual scale of the personal actions of YeverydayheroesY carrying out small deeds of voluntaristic support. At this becalming pole of the affective conversion circuit, human agency isreasserted, but in the e@emplary figure of individual actors e@ercising personal choice. Jy contrast, the out>of>scale stri6e of the

unforeseen event seems utterly inhuman, an Yact of God3 by 0hich is meant YnatureY. Any event that stri6es li6e fate 0ith a speedor at a scale beyond the 6en of human sense>ma6ing ta6es on the aspect of an uncontrollable force of nature. /his applies even to

0holly human>caused events, such as terrorist attac6s. An association is established bet0een Ynatural disasterY and Ynationalsecurity threatY, 0hich discourages any response other than the cyclic, media>driven return to the voluntaristic, individual human

scale. That affective pattern becomes second nature ./he association bet0een natural

disaster and national security becomes almost automatic. Shortly after Jarac6 2bama3s election as USpresident, his staff sent out a press release announcing the appointment of his national security team. #t contained a tell>taletypographic error. /he American public 0as assured of the dedication and competence of its ne0 Ynatural securityY team. /hree

points stand out" )= Hollective response does, of course, go on. Jut it ta6es the privileged form of a gro0ing

state security apparatus. /he anti>terrorism doctrineof the US e@plicitly includes emergency

response to natural disasterin its purvie0. All suddenly stri6ing, unforeseen events that defy human

logic and thus seem to substract themselves from the politicalsphere in its everyday functioningarelumped together in the same category, and together fall under the Kurisdiction of a security apparatus that is continually gro0ing

ne0 arms and e@tending old ones, 0eaving itself into a comple@, tentacular net0or6. /he net0or6 is designed to enableseamless relay from civilian emergency response to military response . 9urricane Oatrina, for e@ample, 0asused by the Jush administration to brea6 do0n the historical prohibition against the domestic deployment of national military forcein America. A US !ational Guard 0as recalled from #raI for service in -ouisiana. When the fires 0ere ravaging Greece in thesummer of *((B, the Gree6 government declared the senseless, unforeseen disaster a terrorist threat, because it could not be ruled

out that it had been the result of terrorist>connected arson. /he army 0as called in. /endenciessuch as theseblur the

boundar bet(een the policin' of civil societand the militar sphere, andbet0een

natural activity, criminal activity, and acts of 0ar. /he distinction bet0een civil society and the

state of e@ception that is0ar is operationally blurred by the e@ercise of a Yfull>spectrum forceY

that is every much as diffuse and protean as the Ythreat environmentY it purportedly secures. easures suspending civil

and politicalrights are extended and multiplied, and increasingly applied preemptivel. /heright to peaceful dissent suffers style tactics mobilised against peaceful demonstrators 0ho had

bro6en no la0 in Hopenhagen at the climate tal6s in *((B and at the G*( meeting in /oronto in *()(=. Hollective action is

further restrainedas the state of e@ception becomes the norm. /he threat environment becomesan open field for autocratic interventionand arbitrary e@ercises of po0er operating on a continuum 0ithmilitary force. /rue to form, the nuclear disaster unfolding at the :u6ushima reactor as a conseIuence of the earthIua6e andtsunami became Yan opportunity for this pacifist nation to rely on its military at a level unseen since 0orld 0ar t0o,Y as the NapaneseSelf>Lefense :orces are mobilised for civilian duty. Hrucially, these developments are no longer legitimated in terms of politicalreason or reason of state. /he blurring of the boundaries bet0een 0ar and peace, and the full>spectrum potential militarisation it

fosters, is legitimated affectively, through the media>driven affective conversion circuit Kust described. #n that affective logic, againstthe all>encompassing bac6ground of lo0>level fear, the tentacularly e@tending security apparatus appears as YnaturalY and as fatefulas the events it is designed to respond to or preempt. *= /he periodic heart0arming return to the personal level and human scaleobscures the reality that there is, in fact, a strange complicity at 0or6 bet0een the human>caused and the naturally occurring.

9urricane Oatrina 0as a YnaturalY disaster only if you fail to note the effects of climate change on the 0ater temperatures of the Gulfof e@ico, and the environmentally ruinous YmanagementY by the US Horps of Engineers of the ississippi $iver floodplain. Asimilar complicity bet0een causal factors of different orders, natural and human, 0as at 0or6 at :u6ushima" tectonic shift meetsnuclear energy infrastructure. /he natural and the human are every0here co>factors in disaster. /hey co>compose disaster in a 0aythat can be fiendishly comple@. Jut they are not simply in fusion or confusion. /he media>borne affective conversion circuit upon

0hich political po0er increasingly relies for its legitimation obscures the actual dynamics of this interlin6age. /he return to thehuman personal level short>circuits any collective response that is not already either inscribed in the same logic of e@ploitativedevelopment that has brought the 0orld to this Kuncture, or in complicity 0ith the nationalCnatural security apparatuses of full>spectrum force that move forcefully against those enacting alternate strategies of collective action in the name of alternate collective

futures. '= /he actual dynamics of the disaster>prone interlin6ing of the comple@ systems Kust

described involves a third comple@ system" the 'lobal econom.As the crisis of *(( illustrated onceagain, capitalism itself is a far>from>eIuilibrium system eminently capable of generating its o0n endemic disasters. /he

financialisationof the capitalist economy hasta6enit to a level of comple@itydefying logic or description

not to mention regulation. #t is as if capitalism has e@truded its o0n, dedicated threat environment, in


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the form of abstract financial instruments operating on the edge of chaos , permanently under the pall ofthe spectre of debt crisis. A portion of finance capital, of course, still comes do0n to earth as investment capital. Jut this is al0ays

done 0ith a vie0 to ma@imising fluidity, in 0ays that fuel a perpetual self>destructuring of the

economy, compensated for by a continual, Iuasi>chaotic remodelling of it./his is the aspect of

capitalismthat Schumpeter called its drive to Y creative destructionY, and0hich!aomi Oleinhas suggestivelynamed Ydisaster capitalismY. /he Iuasi>chaosof the process only further feeds such

phenomena as the movements of migrant labour, 0hich the nation>states are finding sodestabilising. #t also gives rise, in angry reaction, to movements of contestation 0hich

sometimes adopt, in desperation, exactl the kind of asmmetrical (arfare thatnationalCnaturalsecurity apparatuses categorise asYterrorist Y, and0hich they fear above all thin's.As a

counter0eight to the conditions of precariousness fostered by disaster capitalism itself, certain 6ey

economic sectors are allo0ed to consolidate throu'h mer'ers. /hese Iuasi>monopolistic movements

are tolerated, or even encouraged, in the name of securing the economy3s future stability. /his has been significantly the

case in the energy sector, 0ith policies friendly to centralised production and Iuasi>monopolistic

o0nership designed, for e@ample, to revive the nuclear po0er industry or to 6ic6>start capital>

intensive pseudo>green Yalternatives Yli6e biofuels and the mythical YcleanY coal precisely the 6inds of choices

that0ill render the global situation even more precariousin the long runby ma6ing a mocker of

attempts to rein in 'lobal (armin', and by setting the stage for future generations3:u6ushimas.%s lon' as disaster capitalism rei'ns 0hich no doubt 0ill be as long as capitalism itself

reigns the 0orld 0ill be caught in a vicious circle" that of responding by increasin'l

draconian and ill?advised means to a threat environment 0hose dangers the response

only contributes to intensifin'. /he only 0ay out is to militate for an alternate

interlinka'e"bet0een global anticapitalist political contestation and a renascent

environmental movement 0ith opposition to nuclear po0er at its heart .A political ecology up to

the tas6 0ould embrace the human>nature hybridity, in all its comple@ity, but to0ard a ne0

alliance designed to step outside the vicious circle.Also reIuired is a realisation that the

affective turn in the functioning of political legitimation that has come 0ith the media

saturation of global culture is li6ely irreversible.An ecolo'ical alter?politics must also be

an alter?politics of affect.

The simulacra of the la( inculcates the perfection of the necropolitical stateof total la(fare ) imposition of control onto an unbounded space3

maintainin' the false distinction of la( and disorder (hich the foundationof a liberal (ar on differenceComaroff and Comaroff ENohn Homaroff, 1rofessor of African and African American Studies and ofAnthropology, 2ppenheimer :ello0 in African Studies at 9arvard, and Nean Homaroff, 1rofessor of African and

African American Studies and of Anthropology, 2ppenheimer :ello0 in African Studies also at 9arvard, -a0 anddisorder in the postcolony,% Social AnthropologyCAnthropologie Sociale so>civilised forms of 6leptocracy. -a0fare the resort to legalinstruments, to the violence inherent in the la0, to commit acts of political coercion, even erasure


16/50

the state conKure 0ith legalities to act against its citizens. ost infamous recently is ?imbab0e, 0here the ugaberegime has consistently passed la0s to Kustify the coercive silencing of its critics. 2peration urambatsvina, 4Lrive 2ut /rash7, 0hichhas forced political opponents out of urban areas under the banner of 4slum clearance7 has recently ta6en this practice to

unprecedented depths. urambatsvina, says the government, is merely an application of the la0 of the land to raze dangerous

4illegal structures7. -a0fare '8 may be limited or it may reduce people to 4bare life7M in ?imbab0e, it has

mutated into a necropolitics (ith a risin' bod count. Jut it al0ays see6s to launder visceralpo0er in a 0ash of legitimacy as it is deployed to strengthen the sine0s of state or enlarge the capillaries

of capital. 9ence JenKamin7s state" cultural communities, religious communities, corporate

communities, residential communities, communities of interest, even outla0 communities. !verthin' ,

it seems,exists here in the shado( of the la(. Which also ma6es it unsurprising that a 4culture of legality7should saturate not Kust civil order but also its criminal undersides. /a6e another e@ample from South Africa, 0here organised crimeappropriates, re>commissions and counterfeits the means and ends of both the state and the mar6et. /he gangs on the Hape :lats inHape /o0n mimic the business 0orld, having become a lumpen stand>in for those e@cluded from the national economy


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discontinuous, overlapping sovereignties. We said a moment ago that communities of all 6inds have become

ever more legalistic in regulating their affairsM it is often in the process of so doing, in fact, that they become

communities at all, the act of Kudicialisation being also an act of obKectification. 9erein lies the ir 0ill to sovereignty ,

0hich 0e ta6e to connote the e@ercise of autonomous control over the lives, deaths and conditions of

e@istence of those 0ho fall 0ithin its purvie0 and the extension over them of the

*urisdiction of some kind of la(. 4a(makin'#, to cite JenKamin Ghassan 9age,Y3Homes a /ime We Are All Enthusiasm3Y Ghassan 9age 0onders Y0hy it is that suicide bombing cannot be tal6ed about 0ithoutbeing condemned first,Y noting that 0ithout an uneIuivocal condemnation, one is a Ymorally suspicious personY because Yonly un>

Iualified condemnation 0ill do.Y 9e asserts. Y/here is a clear political risk in trying to explain suicide

bombin's.Y'' With such ris6s in mind, my desire here is to momentarily suspend this dilemma by combining an analysis ofthese representational sta6es 0ith a reading of the forces of affect, of the body, of matter. #n pondering the modalities of this

6ind of terrorist, one notes a pastiche of oddities" abod machined to'ether through metal and

flesh, an assembla'e of the or'anic and the inor'anicM a death not of the 7elf nor of the

a perverse habitation ofcontradiction. Achille bembe3s and brilliant meditation on necropolitics notes that the historical basis of sovereignty

that is reliant upon a notion of


18/50

Unli6e the tan6 or the missile that is clearly visible, the 0eapon carried in the shape of thebod is invisible.

Thus concealed3 it forms part of the bod. #t is so intimately part of the body that at the time of itsdetonation it annihilates the body of its bearer, 0ho carries 0ith it the bodies of others 0hen it does not reduce them to pieces. /he

body does not simply conceal a 0eapon. /he body is transformed into a (eapon, not in a metaphorical

sense but in a trul ballistic sense.,) /emporal narratives of pro'ression are upturned as

death and becomin' fuse into one" as one3s body dies, one0s bod becomes the mask, the

(eapon, the suicide bomber. !ot only does the ballistic body come into being(ithout the aidof visual cues mar6ing its transformation, it also carries (ith it the bodies of others.#ts o0npenetrative energy sends shards of metal and torn flesh spinning off into the ether. /he body>0eapon does not play as

metaphor, nor in the realm of meaning and epistemology, but forces us ontologically ane0 to as6" What

6inds of information does the ballistic body impartP /hese bodies, being in the midst of becomin',

blur the insides and the outsides, infectin' transformation through sensation, echoin'

kno(led'evia reverberation andvibration. /he echo is a Iueer temporality>in the relay of affectiveinformation bet0een and amid beings, the seIuence of reflection, repetition, resound, and return and brings forth 0aves of the future brea6ing into the present. Gayatri Spiva6, prescient in dra0ing our attention to the

multivalent te@> tuality of suicide in YHan the Subaltern Spea6,Y reminds us in her latest ruminations that suicide terrorism is a

modality of expression and communication for the subaltern


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ndiaNo chance (ar 'oes nuclear!nders 9


20/50

precedent. Nustice White3s complaint about the far>reaching nature of the Hourt3s decision, ho0ever, reminds us that identifyingKudicial aggressiveness, 0hatever its form, reIuires [Z)(D* more than simply adding up the number of cases 0here the Hourt hasacted aggressively. n)) /his Essay considers the $oberts Hourt and stare decisis from a different angle. #t e@amines several methods

by 0hich Hhief Nustice $obertsarguably has used themulti>Kudge nature of the Supreme Hourt to his advantage in

undermining precedent 0ithout e@plicitly calling for its overruling. n)* /hese e@amples do not prove thatthe Hourt as a 0hole, or the Hhief Nustice in particular, is bent on undoing the 0or6 of prior Hourts. #nstead, they illustrate the 0ays

in 0hich a Nustice can 0or6 0ithin the formal confines of precedent to achieve fundamentall

different results, either in the short or long term. n)' /he methods described belo0 depend in part on thedistinction bet0een the result a court reaches in a case and the reasoning it employs. /he nature of the Supreme Hourt as a multi>Kudge court ma6es this distinction possible" often times, the Hourt may agree on a result but split sharply on its reasoning. n)8 /hisopens up room for a creative Nustice to undermine precedent, even as the Nustice e@presses reasons that appear moderate>inparticular, more moderate than those 0ho are more inclined to overrule e@plicitly. #n so doing, the Nustice may create the conditions

for the ultimate reKection of that precedent, even 0hile publicly counseling restraint>indeed, even 0hile voting to uphold that [Z)(D'precedent. n)+ #n short, this Essay considers methods by 0hich Nustices can play 0ell 0ith others>both those that came before the practice of limiting or even eviscerating a precedent 0hile ostensibly

remaining faithful to it. n)F /his phenomenon has become a maKor topic of scholarly discussion during the last five years,n) as scholars have identified and analyzed e@amples of the $oberts Hourt engaging in such conduct>conduct generally thought tohave resulted from the replacement of a sometimes centrist Nustice 23Honnor 0ith a more reliably conservative Nustice Alito. n)B/he e@amples in this Essay illustrate instances 0here the Hourt or a plurality thereof arguably has engaged in such conduct. n*( /he

lessons one can dra0 from these e@amples 0ill help shape an understanding of the stealth overruling phenomenon, and the e@tent to0hich the $oberts Hourt performs it. Second, this Essay engages the debate about the implications of the Supreme Hourt3s character

as a collegial body. Scholars long have ac6no0ledged that critiIues of the Hourt must account for its collegial nature rather thansimply treating it as a purposive [Z)(D8 individual. n*) /his Essay contributes to that debate by considering ho0 Hhief Nustice

$oberts mayin certain cases strategically usehis colleagues3 calls for more e@plicit overrulingof precedent as a

tool in maintaining his and the Hourt3s reputation as faithful to stare decisis 0hile nevertheless

pushing the la0 a0ay from precedents.

%lso the other branches all (ill circumvent the aff???several reasons???

a4 Con'ress???Con'ress (ill backlash a'ainst a''ressive court decisions inthe area of surveillance???the (ill bar the court from hearin' the cases.

>ladeck 11R Stephen #. &ladec6, 1rofessor of -a0, American University Washington

Hollege of -a0, *())


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habeas litigation arising out of the military detention of noncitizen terrorism suspects at Guantnamo.88 As significantly, at the

same timeas Hongress has left some of these 6ey Iuestions unans0ered, it has also attempted to keep

courts from ans(erin' them. /hus, the L/A and the HA purported to divest the federal

courts of Kurisdiction over habeas petitions brought by individuals detained at Guantnamo and

else0here.8+ oreover, the*((D HA precluded any la0suit see6ing collaterally to attac6 the

proceedings of military commissions,8D along 0ith any other action against the United States or its agents relating toany aspect of the detention, transfer, treatment, trial, or conditions of confinement of an alien 0ho is or 0as detained by the UnitedStates and has been determined by the United States to have been properly detained as an enemy combatant or is a0aiting suchdetermination.%8F And although the Supreme Hourt in Joumediene invalidated the habeas>stripping provision as applied to theGuantnamo detainees,8 the same language has been upheld as applied else0here,8B and the more general non>habeas

Kurisdiction>stripping section has been repeatedly enforced by the federal courts in other cases.+( Such le'islative efforts

to forestall *udicial resolutionof the merits can also be found in the telecom immunity

provisions of the :AA,+)0hich provided that telecom companies could not be held liable for

violations of the /elecommunications Act committed in conKunction 0ith certain

'overnmental surveillanceprograms.+* /hus, in addition to changing the underlying substantive

la0going for0ard, the :AA pretermitteda series of then>pending la(suits against the telecom

companies.+' Analogously, Hongress has attempted to assert itself in the debate over civilian trials versus military commissionsby barring the use of appropriated funds to try individuals held at Guantnamo in civilian courts,+8 and by also barring the1resident from using such funds to transfer detainees into the United States for continuing detention or to other countries, as

0ell.++ Rather than enact specific policiesgoverning criteria for detention, treatment, and trial,Con'ress#s modus operandithroughout the past decade has been to effectuate polic

indirectl b barrin'ma6ing body. Nudges are only accountable to the publicunder the most rare and e@treme circumstances. et in the 0a6e of elaborate court orders, prisons, mental hospitals, schools, policedepartments, and corporations must all continue to balance individual rights against group or societal interests. Unfortunately,

Kudges do not have the e@pertise, the time, or the inclination to ma6e the 6ind of long>term incremental

adKustments that may be critical to institutional stability and progress. /hat is 0hy court>ordered

remedies rarely 0or6 as planned and have so many unanticipated conseIuences. oreover, as 0e have seen,modification or

reversal of court rulings adversely impacting social and political institutions generally ta6es years.


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,. No enforcement or fundin'Pacelle, poli sci prof and legal studies coordinator at the univ of issouri at St. -ouis, 9k9

[$ichard,The Role of the Supreme Court in American Politics: The Least Dangerous ranch!, p)

Even if the Supreme Hourt 0as to carve out some sphere of po0er for itself, there 0ould be significantlimitations . Any Hourt decision has to be enforced, but enforcement po0er is the province of the president

and the e@ecutive branch . /hus, the Hourt is at their mercy. #f the president does not li6e the decision, he

does not have to enforce it . #ndeed, history boo6s report that Andre0 Nac6son, upset at the Worcester v. Georgia


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nternet!ven massive economic decline has "ero chance of (ar$obert Gervis 11, 1rofessor in the Lepartment of 1olitical Science and School of #nternational and1ublic Affairs at Holumbia University, Lecember *()), :orce in 2ur /imes,% Survival, &ol. *+, !o. 8, p.

8('>8*+

Even if war is still seen as evil, the security community could be dissolved if severe conflicts of interest were to arise. Could the more peaceful world generate

new interests that would bring the members of the community into sharp disputes? 45 A zerosum sense of status would be one e!ample, perhaps lin"ed to a

steep rise in nationalism. #ore li"ely would be a worsening ofthe current economic difficulties ,which coulditselfproduce

greater nationalism , undermine democracy and bring bac" oldfashioned beggarmyneighbor

economic policies. $hile these dangers are real, it is hard to believe that the conflicts could

be 'reat enou'hto leadthe members of the community to contemplate fighting each other . %t is not

so much that economic interdependencehas proceeded to the point where it could not be reversed& states that were more

internally interdependent than anything seen internationally have fought bloody civil wars. 'ather it is thateven if the more

extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism become discredited , it is

hard to see howwithout building on a pree!isting high level of political conflict leaders and mass opinion would come to

believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing oreven attac"ing others. %s it possible that problems will

not only become severe, but that people will entertain the thought that they have to be solved by war? $hile a pessimist could note that thisargument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis, an optimist could reply

(correctly, in my view) that the very fact that we have seensuch a sharp economic do(n?turn

withoutanonesuggesting that forceof arms is the solutionshows thateven if bad times brin'

about 'reater economic conflict, it (ill not make (ar thinkable.

Aro(th causes (arTrainer 9Senior -ecturer of School of Social Wor6 University of !e0 South Wales to>gro0th analysis is at all valid, the implications for the problem of global peace and conflict and security are

clear and savage. #f 0e all remain determined to increase our living standards, our level of productionand consumption, in a 0orld 0here resources are already scarce, 0here only a fe0 have affluent living standards but another

billion 0ill be 0anting them too, and 0hich 0e, the rich, are determined to get richer 0ithout any limit, then nothing ismore guaranteed than that there 0ill beincreasing levels ofconflictand violence. /o put it another 0ay, if0e insist on remaining affluent 0e 0ill need to remain heavily armed. #ncreased conflict in at least the follo0ing categories

can be e@pected. :irst, the present conflict over resourcesbet0een the rich elites and the poor maKority in the /hirdWorld must increase, for e@ample, as 4development7 under globalisation ta6es more land, 0ater and forests into e@portmar6ets. Second, there are conflicts bet0een the /hird World and the rich 0orld, the maKor recent e@amples being the 0arbet0een the US and #raI over control of oil. #raI invaded Ou0ait and the US intervened, accompanied by much high>sounding rhetoric not nationsto0ards their affluent counterparts7.D* 4Struggles are ta6ing place, or are in the offing, bet0een rich and poor nations over

their share of the 0orld productM 0ithin the industrial 0orld over their share of industrial resources and mar6ets7.D' 4/hatmore than half of the people on this planetare poorly nourished0hile a small percentage live inhistorically unparalleled lu@ury is a sure recipe for continued and even escalating international conflict .7D8/he oil embargo placed on the US by 21EH in the early )BF(s prompted the US to ma6e it clear that it 0as prepared to go to0ar in order to secure supplies. 41resident Harter last 0ee6 issued a clear 0arning that any attempt to gain control of the1ersian Gulf 0ould lead to 0ar.7 #t 0ould 4] be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States7.D+ 4/he USis ready to ta6e military action if $ussia threatens vital American interestsin the 1ersian Gulf, the US Secretary of Lefence,r Jro0n, said yesterday.7DD Olare7s recent boo6 $esource Wars discusses this theme in detail, stressing the coming


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significance of 0ater as a source of international conflict. 4Global demand for many 6ey materials is gro0ing at anunsustainable rate. ] the incidence of conflict over vital materials is sure to gro0. ] /he0arsof the future0ill largelybe fought over the possession and control ofvital economic goods. ] resource 0ars0ill become, in the years ahead, the most distinctive feature of the global security environment.7DF uch of the rich 0orld7sparticipation in the conflicts ta6ing place throughout the 0orld is driven by the determination to bac6 a faction that 0ill thenloo6 favourably on Western interests. #n a report entitled, 4/he rich prize that is Shaba7, Jreeze begins, 4#ncreasing rivalryover a share>out bet0een :rance and Jelgium of the mineral riches of Shaba 1rovince lies behind the Koint :ranco Jelgian

paratroop airlift to ?aire. ] /hese mineral riches ma6e the province a valuable prize and help e@plain the West7s e@tendeddiplomatic courtship ]7D /hen there is potential conflict bet0een the rich nations 0ho are after all the ones mostdependent on securing large Iuantities of resources. 4/he resource and energy intensive modes of production employed innearly all industries necessitate continuing armed coercion and competition to secure ra0 materials.7DB 4Struggles are ta6ingplace, or are in the offing, bet0een rich and poor nations over their share of the 0orld product, 0ithin the industrial 0orldover their share of industrial resources and mar6ets ]7F( Gro0th, competition, e@pansion ] and 0ar :inally, at the most

abstract level, the struggle for greater 0ealth and po0er is central in the literature on the causes of 0ar. 4]0arfareappears as a normal and periodic form of competition 0ithin the capitalist0orld economy. ]0orld 0arsregularly occur during a period ofeconomic e@pansion. 7F) 4War is an inevitable result of thestruggle bet0een economiesfor [email protected]* Hhoucri and !orth say their most important finding is that domesticgro0th is a strong determinant of national e@pansion and that this results in competition bet0eennations and 0ar.F' /he :irst and SecondWorld Wars can be seen asbeing largely about imperialgrabbing. Germany, #taly and Napan sought to e@pand their territory and resource access. Jritain already held much ofthe 0orld 0ithin its empire ] 0hich it had previously fought F* 0ars to ta6e^ 4:inite resourcesin a 0orld of e@panding

populations and increasing per capita demands create a situation ripe for internationalviolence .7F8 Ashleyfocuses on the significance of the Iuest for economic gro0th. 4War is mainly e@plicable in terms of differential gro0th in a

0orld of scarce and unevenly distributed resources ] e@pansion is a prime source of conflict. So long as the dynamics ofdifferentialgro0th remain unmanaged, it is probable that theselong term processes 0ill sooner orlater carry maKor po0ers into 0ar.7F+ Security /he point being made can be put in terms of security. 2ne 0ay tosee6 security is to develop greater capacity to repel attac6. #n the case of nations this means large e@penditure of money,resources and effort on military preparedness. 9o0ever there is a much better strategyM i.e. to live in 0ays that do not obligeyou to ta6e more than your fair share and therefore that do not give anyone any motive to attac6 you. /ut^ /his is notpossible unless there is global economic Kustice. #f a fe0 insist on levels of affluence, industrialisation and economic gro0ththat are totally impossible for all to achieve, and 0hich could not be possible if they 0ere ta6ing only their fair share of globalresources, then they must remain heavily armed and their security 0ill reIuire readiness to use their arms to defend their

unKust privileges. #n other 0ords, if 0e 0ant affluence 0e must prepare for 0ar . #f 0e insist on continuing tota6e most of the oil and other resources 0hile many suffer intense deprivation because they cannot get access to them then0e must be prepared to maintain the aircraft carriers and rapid deployment forces, and the despotic regimes, 0ithout 0hich

0e cannot secure the oil fields and plantations. Global peace is not possible 0ithout global Kustice, andthat is not possible unless rich countries move to 4/he Simpler Way7.

!xtinction

Chase?Dunn HIListinguished 1rofessor of Sociology and Lirector of the #nstitute for $esearch onWorld>Systems at the University of d\hallC0arprop.htm=

!ote>figure omitted

-ate in the O>0ave ups0ing systemschema predicts a 0indo0 ofvulnerability to another round of0orld 0ar./his is 0hen 0orld0ars have occurred in the past .#ntensified rivalry and competition for ra0 materials and mar6ets0ill coincide 0ith a multipolardistribution of military po0er among core states. /he 0orld>system model does not predict 0ho the ne@t hegemon 0illbe. $ather it designates that there 0ill be structural forces in motion that 0ill favor the construction of a ne0 hierarchy.9istorical particularities and the uniIue features of the era 0ill shape the outcome and select the 0inners and losers. #f it0ere possible for the current system to survive the holocaust of another 0ar among core states, the outcome of the 0ar0ould be the main arbiter of hegemonic succession. While the hegemonic seIuence has been a messy method of selecting

global YleadershipY in the past, the settlement of hegemonic rivalry by force in the future0ill be a disasterthat our species may not survive. #t is my concern about this possible disaster that motivates this effort tounderstand ho0 the hegemonic seIuence has occurred in the past and the factors affecting hegemonic rivalry in the ne@tdecades. What are the cyclical processes and secular trends that may affect the probability of future 0orld 0arsP /he 0orld>system model is presented in :igure ). /his model depicts the variables that # contend 0ill be the main influences on theprobability of 0ar among core states. /he four variables that raise the probability of core 0ar are the Oondratieff cycle,hegemonic decline, population pressure


25/50

probability of core 0ar are the destructiveness of 0eaponry, international economic interdependency, international politicalintegration and disarmament. /he probability of 0ar may be high 0ithout a 0ar occurring, of course. Noshua Goldstein3ssystem history. #t is the future of this 0ar cycle that #am trying to predict. :actors that #ncrease the -i6elihood of War Among Hore States /he proposed model divides variablesinto those that are alleged to increase the probability of 0ar among core states and those that decrease that probability./here are four of each. Oondratieff 0aves /he first variable that has a positive effect on the probability of 0ar among corepo0ers is the Oondratieff 0ave >> a forty to si@ty year cycle of economic gro0th and stagnation. Goldstein phase phases. /his disagreement over timing is related to a

disagreement over causation. According to Goldstein states are 0ar machines thatal0ays have adesire to utilizemilitary force, but 0ars are costly and sostatesmen tend to refrain fromgoing to0ar 0hen staterevenues are lo0. 2n the other hand, statesmen are more li6ely toengage in 0ar fare0hen staterevenues are high

contentCuploadsC*())C(8CHrash2nLemandSimplicity#nstitute.pdf

any climate policy professionalsand climate activists areno0 reassessing 0hether there isanything

more they can do tohelp preventthe global catastrophethat climate change appears to be. /he passing of thesymbolic 8((ppm H2* level certainly has seen some prominent activists getting close to a change of strategy. As the /ransition

/o0n movement founder and permaculture activist $ob 9op6ins says, the shift in the mainstream policy circles from mitigation toadaptation and defence is under0ay


26/50

/ime seems to be running out for any serious planned reductions inGGE[Greenhouse Gas Emissions

adeIuate to prevent dangerous climate change0ithoutconsidering a po0erdo0n of the gro0th

economy. /he ideas of degro0th)D are starting to get an airing, mostly in Europe, but the chances of these ideas being adoptedand successfully implemented 0ould reIuire a long slo0 political evolution if not revolution. We don3t have time for the first, and thesecond almost certainly crashes the financial system, 0hich in turn crashes the global economy.

#S /#E $U!!#!G 2U/ :2$ J2//2 U1 A-/E$!A/#&ESP

-i6e many others, # have argued that the bottom up creation of household and community economies, already proliferating in theshado0 of the global economy, can create and sustain different 0ays of 0ell>being that can compensate, at least partly, for theinevitable contraction in centralised fossil fuelled economies essential usesby more than a billion middle class people. /hat contraction has the potential tos0itch

off greenhouse gas emissions but this has not been seriously discussed or debated by those currently 0or6ing veryhard to get global action for rapid transition by planned and co>ordinated processes. 2f course it is more complicated because theprovision of fundamental needs, such as 0ater, food etc., are part of the same highly integrated system that meets discretionary

0ants.

9o0ever, the time available to create, refine and rapidly spread successful models of these bottom>up solutions is running out, in thesame 0ay that the time for government policy and corporate capitalism to 0or6 their magic in converting the energy base of gro0th

from fossil to rene0able sources.)F #f the climate cloc6 is really so close to midnight 0hat else could be

doneP

Economic crash as hell or salvation

:or many decades # have felt that acollapse of the global economic systems mightsave humanityand

many of our fello0 speciesgreat sufferingby happening soon er rather than laterbecause the

sta6es 6eep rising and scale of the impacts are al0ays0orse by being postponed. An importantinfluence in my thin6ing on the chances of such a collapse 0as the public speech given by 1resident $onald $eagan follo0ing the

)BF stoc6 mar6et crash. 9e said Ythere 0on3t be an economic collapse, so long as people don3t believe there 0ill be an economiccollapseY or 0ords to that effect. # remember at the time thin6ingM fancy the most po0erful person on the planet admitting that faith


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Slo0 Hontraction or :ast Hollapse

/he fragility of the global economyhas many unprecedented aspects that ma6esome sort of rapid collapse of

the global economy more li6ely. /he capacity of central ban6s to repeatthe massive stimulus

mechanism in response to the *(( global financial crisis, has been greatly reduced,0hile the faith

that underpins the global financial system has 0ea6ened , to say the least. Systems thin6ers such as Lavid

Ooro0icz*( have argued that the inter>connected nature of the global economy, instantaneous communicationsand financial flo0s, YKust in timeY logistics, and e@treme degrees of economic and technological specialisation, have increased

the chances of a large scale systemic failure, at the same time that they have mitigated acting factor that

could radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions isthe scale of financial debt and the long>

sustained gro0th of bubble economicsstretching bac6 at least to the beginnings of the Y/hatcheriteC$eaganiterevolutionY in the early )B(s. :rom an energetics perspective, the pea6 of US oil production in )BF(, and the resulting global oilcrises of F' and FB, laid the foundations for the gigantic gro0th in debt that super accelerated the level of consumption, andtherefore GGE.

Whatever the causes, all economic bubbles follo0 a traKectory that includes a rapid contraction, as credit evaporates, follo0ed by along>sustained contraction, 0here asset values decline to lo0er levels than those at the beginning of the bubble. After almost *+

years of asset price deflation in Napan, a house and land parcel of ).+ha in a not too isolated rural location can be bought for_*+,(((. A contraction in the systems that supply 0ants are li6ely to see simultaneous problems in the provision of basic needs. As:oss e@plains, in a deflationary contraction, prices of lu@uries generally collapse but essentials of food and fuel do not fall much.ost importantly, essentials become unaffordable for many, once credit freezes and Kob security declines. #t goes 0ithout saying thatdeflation rather inflation is the economic devil that governments and central ban6s most fear and are prepared to do almost

anything to avoid.

Giving credence to the evidence for fast global economic collapse may suggest # am moving a0ay from my belief in the more gradualEnergy Lescent future that # helped articulate. Nohn ichael Greer has been very critical of apocalyptic vie0s of the future in 0hich acollapse s0eeps a0ay the current 0orld leaving the chosen fe0 0ho survive to build the ne0 0orld. #n large measure # agree 0ith his

critiIue but recognise that some might interpret my 0or6 as suggesting a permaculture paradise gro0ing from the ashes of thiscivilisation. /o some e@tent this is a reasonable interpretation, but # see that collapse, as a long dra0n>out process rather thanresulting from a single event.*)

# still believe that energy descent 0ill go on for many decades or even centuries. #n :uture Scenarios # suggested energy descentdriven by climate change and pea6 oil could occur through a series of crises separating relatively

stable states that could persist for decadesif not centuries. /he collapse of the global financial system

mightsimplybe the first of those crises that reorganise the 0orld. /he path0ays that energy descent could ta6eare enormously varied, but still little discussed, so it is not surprising that discussions about descent scenarios tend to default into

ones of total collapse. As the language around energy descent and collapse has become more nuanced,0e start to see the

distinction bet0een financial, economic, social and civilisational collapse as potential stages in

an energy descent process0here the first is fast changing and relatively superficial and the last is slo0 moving and morefundamental.

#n :uture Scenarios # suggested the more e@treme scenarios of Earth Ste0ard and -ifeboat could follo0 Green /ech and Jro0n /ech

along the step0ise energy descent path0ay. #f 0e are heading into the Jro0n /ech 0orld of more severe

climate change, then as the energy sources that sustain the Jro0n /ech scenario deplete, and

climate chaos increases,future crises and collapse could lead to the -ifeboat Scenario. #n this scenario, no matter

ho0 fast or e@treme the reductions in GGE due to economic collapse,0e still end up in the

climate coo6er , but 0ith only the capacity for very local, household and communitarian organisation.

#f the climate crisis is already happening, and as suggested in :uture Scenarios, the primary responses to the crisis increase rather

than reduce GGE, then it isprobably too late for any concerted effort to shift course to the more benign

Green /ech energy descent future. Given that most of the 0orld is yet to accept the inevitability of Energy Lescent andare still pinning their faith in Y/echno StabilityY if not Y/echno E@plosionY, the globally cooperative po0erdo0n processes needed toshift the 0orld to Green /ech loo6 unli6ely. ore fundamental than any political action, the resurgent rural and regional economies,


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based on a boom for agricultural and forestry commodities, that structurally underpins the Green /ech scenario, 0ill not eventuate ifclimate change is fast and severe. Hlimate change 0ill stimulate large investments in agriculture but they are more li6ely to be energyand resource intensive, controlled climate agriculture D degreesand resource depletion leads to a collapse of the centralisedJro0n /ech governance and a rise of local 0ar lords


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9NC


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Democrac D%


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9NC


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9NC ink Wall???nternet 6reedom;.7. internet freedom credibilit is perceived as a direct attack on emer'in'authoritarian po(ers like China???it#s perceived as an attempt to build a

'lobal democratic alliance to contain them

:ergus -anson 19, !onresident :ello0, :oreign 1olicy, Jroo6ings #nstitution,)(C*+C)*, #nternet :reedom" /he $ole of the U.S. State Lepartment,%

http"CC000.broo6ings.eduCresearchCreportsC*()*C)(C*+>ediplomacy>hanson>internet>freedom

Promotin'and facilitating internet freedom isamong the most radical uses ediplomacyis

bein' put to at 7tate. #ts starting point is that America7s traditionally strong advocacy for civil liberties should apply fully

and 0ithout e@ception to the online 0orld. /hus, if a 'overnment seeks to restrictthese freedoms

online3 the ;.7. 'overnment(illoppose it both rhetorically and in practice includin' b

directl fundin' the development and rollout of tools that (ill subvert restrictive

internet policies. /he use of technology to overcome censorship and empo0er individuals in e@ercising their human rightsonline is a for0ard>leaning aspect of U.S. policy that vie0s human rights online the same as it does in the physical 0orld. /he United

States does not condone or see6 to support illegal online activity


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Terror D%


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9NC ) %T+ No Nuke Terror77 can 'et Pakistani nukesKempiricall leaks info and 77 has monetarcapabilitKrapid response is ke

6arhan 1/? graduate of Oabul University and holds a aster degree from Napan in 1ublic 1olicy andEconomics, Afghan analyst and commentator on political and socioeconomic affairs in Afghanistan


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9NC 7urveillance AoodCurrent surveillance techniques are effective and disruptFdeter terroristattacks ? ne( pro'rams are emer'in' dail

Rothkopf 1/ conceived programsof the US government is in a number of important 0ays

fulfilling its core mission of helping to ma6e America and Americans safer.

8etadata collection is effective7tone 1/3


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beginning has he madeP # am in a reasonably good position to 0eigh in on that Iuestion, because # had the privilege of serving as one of the fivemembers of the $evie0 Group that 1resident 2bama appointed in August to advise him on these issues. /he $evie0 included individuals 0ith a 0ide>range of divergent e@periences, values, and e@pertise. #t included, for e@ample, both a card>carrying member of the AH-U


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ndia


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9NC No 7pilloverThe court (ill functionall nullif the aff#s precedent (ithout overrulin'it???even (hen future cases are almost identical

ichael N. Aerhardt, Assoc. prof William and Wary, !ov. 1HH1, 4/he $ole 2f

1recedent,7 D( Geo. Wash. -. $ev. D, p lnSometimes, ho0ever, the Hourt can destroy a precedent 0ithout overruling it by distinguishing

precedents in 0ays that practicall nullif them ,thereby obscuring the differences bet0een distinctions and

implicit overrulings. )DB /he Hourt3s decisions on proportionality of punishmentpresent such a

Iuandary. #n )B(, $ummelv. Estelle )F( held by a +>8 vote that /e@as3 statutory reIuirement of

mandatory life sentencefor a defendant convicted of three felonies, consisting in that case of fraudulent practices

cumulatively depriving people of property totaling less than t0o hundred dollars, did not violate the Eighth Amendment3s

prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment .Jut this holding cast doubt on the validity of

the Hourt3s prior practiceof applying, beyond the death penalty conte@t, the standard that the Eighth Amendment

prohibited imposition of a sentence that is grossly disproportionate to the severity of the crime. )F) SubseIuently, the Hourt by

a +>8 vote in Solemv. 9elm )F* struc6 [Z)(B do0n a punishment scheme almost identical to $ummel,

e@cept that Solem involved a mandatory life sentence 0ithout the possibility of parole. Nustice Jlac6mun 0as the s0ing vote inSolem, but he did not 0rite an opinion. $ather, Nustice 1o0ell3s opinion for the Hourt in Solem 0as virtually identical to his $ummeldissent, prompting the dissenters in Solem to claim that $ummel 0as being overruled sub silentio. )F' #n 9armelin v. ichigan, )F8the Hourt recently tried to resolve the confusion $ummel and Solem had generated. /he five>member maKority upheld ichigan3s

imposition of a mandatory life sentence 0ithout parole for drug possession but split over ho0 to deal 0ith Solem. While HhiefNustice $ehnIuist and Nustice Scalia argued that Solem should be overruled because it embodied an un0or6able standard and 0as

inconsistent 0ith prior decisions and original intent, )F+ Nustice Oennedyin a separate concurrence


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9NC ) DelaNo mpact+ The 7upreme Court isn#t modeled anmoreNe( Lork Times H?1=> arie

Slaughter, the dean of theWoodro0 WilsonSchool of 1ublic and #nternational Affairs at 1rinceton. We are losing one of the

greatest bully pulpits 0e have ever had .%:rom )BB( through *((*, for instance, the Hanadian Supreme Hourt citeddecisions of the United States Supreme Hourt about a dozen times a year, an analysis by /he !e0 or6 /imes found. #n the si@ years

since, the annual citation rate has fallen by half, to about si@. Australian state supreme courts cited

American decisions *( times in )BB+, according to a recentstudyby $ussell Smyth, an Australian economist. Jy

*((+, the number had fallen to F*. /he story is similar around the globe, legal e@perts say, particularly in

cases involving human rights. /hese days, foreign courts in developed democracies often cite the rulings of

theEuropean Hourt of 9uman $ightsincases concerning eIuality, liberty and prohibitions against cruel treatment, said9arold 9ongKu Ooh, the dean of the ale -a0 School. #n those areas, Lean Ooh said, they tend not to loo6 to the rulings of the U.S.

Supreme Hourt.% /he rise of ne0 and sophisticated constitutional courts else0here is one reason for the

Supreme Hourt7s fading influence, legal e@perts said. /he ne0 courts are, moreover, generally more liberal than

the $ehnIuist and $oberts courtsand for that reason more inclined to cite one another.

.
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/woodrow_wilson/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/woodrow_wilson/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://works.bepress.com/russell_smyth/1/http://works.bepress.com/russell_smyth/1/http://works.bepress.com/russell_smyth/1/http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_court_of_human_rights/index.html?inline=nyt-orghttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_court_of_human_rights/index.html?inline=nyt-orghttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_court_of_human_rights/index.html?inline=nyt-orghttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/woodrow_wilson/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://works.bepress.com/russell_smyth/1/http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_court_of_human_rights/index.html?inline=nyt-org


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1NR


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ine b line


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9NC???No War!mpirics6er'uson3 :I .A., -aurence A. /isch 1rofessor of 9istory at 9arvard University, $esident faculty member of the inda de GunzburgHenter for European Studies, Senior $esearch :ello0 of Nesus Hollege, 2@ford University, and a Senior :ello0 of the 9oover #nstitution, StanfordUniversity 2ctober *((D, ay *)st*()(, O2!/212U-2S=

!or can economic crises e@plainthebloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modernhistoriography lin6s the Great Lepression tothe rise of fascism andthe outbrea6 ofWorld War ##. Jut that

simple story leaves too much out.!azi Germany started the 0arin Europe only after its economyhadrecovered. !ot allthe countries affected by theGreat Lepression 0ere ta6en over by fascist regimes, nor did

all such regimes start 0arsof aggression. #n fact, no general relationship bet0een economics and conflict is

discerniblefor the century as a 0hole. Some 0ars came after periods of gro0th, others 0ere the causes rather than

the conseIuences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises 0ere not follo0ed by 0ars.

%nd3 economic crisis doesn#t cause (arKprefer statistical studies over

abstract R theories8iller3 PhD in economics3 9kR1hL in economics from cGill U, Sc in economics from the -ondon School of Economics, fmradKunct professor at U of 2tta0a, fmr e@ecutive director of the World Jan6 in Washington L.H.


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World Economics$evie0, and others, and has a 1hL in economic history from UH-A. Hapitalism and the Lestruction of

-ife on Earth" Si@ /heses on Saving the 9umans, truth>out.orgCopinionCitemC)BF*>capitalism>and>the>

destruction>of>life>on>earth>si@>theses>on>saving>the>humans

Same 0ith $esource Lepletion

We inthe industrializedYconsumer economiesY are not Kust overconsuming fossil fuels.We3re overconsuming everthin'.

:rom fish to forests, minerals to metals, oil to fresh0ater , 0e3re consuming the planet li6e

there3s no tomorro0.[*8 Ecological YfootprintY scientists tell us that 0e in the industrialized nations areno0consuming resources and sin6s at the rate of 1.$ planets per ear./hat is,0e3re using natural

resources li6e fish, forests, 0ater, farmland and so on at half>again the rate that nature can

replenish them.[*+ According to the World Jan6, the 0ealthiest )( percent of the 0orld3s people accounts for almost D( percent of consumption e@penditures and

the top *( percent accounts for more than FD percent of global consumption, 0hereas the bottom 8( percent of the 0orld3s population account for Kust + percent. Eventhebottom F( percent of the 0orld3s population accounts for barely )+.' percent of global consumption e@penditures.[*D !eedless to say, the

F( percent0antsand deserves a higher material standard of living. et if the 0hole 0orld 0ere to achieve

thisby consuming li6e Americans,0e 0ould need something li6e five more planets of natural

resourcesand sin6s for all of that.[*F /hin6 0hat this means.

/a6e the case of Hhina. Holumbia University3s Earth 1olicy #nstitute predicts that if Hhina 6eeps gro0ing by around percent per year, it3s current rate, Hhinese average per

capita consumption 0ill reach current US level by around *('+. Jut to provide the natural resources for Hhina 3s ).'billion>plus to

consume li6eAmerica3s ''( million, the Hhinese , roughly *( percent of the 0orld3s population,0ill

consume as much oil as the entire (orld consumes toda. /heyalso0ill consume DB

percent of current 0orld grain production, D* percent of the current 0orld meat production, D'

percent of current 0orld coal consumption, '+ percent of current 0orld steel consumption, 8

percent of current 0orld paper consumption.


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2bsessed 0ith the numerical accuracy of proKections made decades ago in /he -imits to Gro0th, -omborg ignores the importance ofthat study3s Iualitative insights, still valid today, concerning the interconnections bet0een humanity and the natural 0orld. /he

boo6 illustrated the many 0ays in 0hich increases in the human population and consumption levels

undermine the sustainability of human society, including through pollution, the depletion ofboth

rene0able and nonrene0able resources, and industrial production. -omborg also ignores some of thestudy3s accurate Iuantitative insights" recent analyses by scientists sho0 that /he -imits to Gro0th 0as eerily correct in at leastsome of its most important proKections. #n a ree@amination of the study, the ecologists Hharles 9all and Nohn Lay sho0ed that if a

timeline 0ere added to the boo63s predictions 0ith *((( at the half0ay point, Ythen the model results are almost e@actly on coursesome '+ years later in *((.Y

/he -imits to Gro0th countered the blissful ignorance of many economists and business magnates 0ho 0anted to believe in theconvenient pipe dream of unlimited gro0th, denying the finiteness of the natural environment. any policyma6ers did understand

the value of the study, ho0ever, and tried to inculcate its basic concepts into our civilization, but 0ithout success. /he scientificcommunity thus still has educational 0or6 to do, and finishing it is essential to securing a future for our civilization.

W9A/ /9E SH#E!HE SAS

-omberg promotes numerous misconceptions in his essay. Jemoaning /he -imits to Gro0th3s results as neither Ysimple nor easy tounderstand,Y -omborg fails to grasp 0hat many reputable scientists and policyma6ers have long 6no0n" that predicting the details

of comple@ phenomena is difficult. #n that light, /he -imits to Gro0th 0as Kust a first stab at analyzing the elaborate dynamics thatcause continued economic gro0th to threaten the sustain>ability of human society.

-omborg further displays scientific ignorance 0hen he tal6s about pesticides. 9is estimate of *( U.S. deaths annually from

pesticides ignores both the ecological harm they cause and the human health problems, including cancer, hormone disruption, andneurological effects, associated 0ith pesticide e@posure. 9is argument that LL/ is a cheap, effective solution to malaria overloo6s

the ability of mosIuitoes, li6e other pests, to evolve resistance. 1esticides can be valuable tools 0hen used as scalpels, but 0hen theyare used as bludgeons, the evolution of resistance often undoes their efficacy. /his is 0hy many epidemiologists fear that society isregressing from the happy era of 0or6ing antibiotics.

-omborgalso perpetuates the denial of themultiple 0ays in 0hich civilization is underpinned by

a healthy environment . es,0e can continue to e@pand into previously untapped arable land, but

only at the cost ofundermining the giant planetary ecosystems that assure humanity 0ill have

clean air, clean 0ater, and a sustainable and benign climate. es,0e can forgo recycling and gro0

plantations for paper,but only at the e@pense of biodiversity. #ndeed, as increasing population

gro0th and overconsumption degrade the environment, none of the economic gro0th that

-omborg hopes for 0ill be possible . oreover, the capacity of society and its institutions to

maintain, let alone improve, the Iuality of life >> a capacity that -omborg ta6es for granted >>0ill be at ris6.

-omborg retells the story of ho0the biologist 1aul Ehrlich, the physicist Nohn 9oldren, and one of us

lost a betin )BB( afterthe economist Nulian Simon 0agered that the prices of a number of

commodities 0ould dropover a ten>year period. Jut had the bet been e@tended a fe0 more years,

the scientists 0ould have 0on , because the prices of those commodities had, on average, risen. Simon

later challenged ecologiststo a ne0 set of bets on the futureM Ehrlich and the climatologist Stephen

Schneider accepted the challenge and pic6ed )+ environmentall y significant trends, such asthe

concentration of greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere and the amount of biodiversityon the planet.

/o our surprise, once he recognized the trends, Simon sa0 the 0riting on the 0all and promptly

bac6ed out of the betM he 0ould have lost more than _)(,(((. #ndeed, the limitations on the human

enterprise e@tend beyond minerals.World hunger is increasing, as is the cost of basic foodstaples./he temporary advancesof the environmental movement, such as the creation of more

ecological reserves to protect biodiversity, are proving less and less effective faced 0ith the sheer

0eight offurther population gro0th and increasing consumption.


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9NC Aro(th ;nsustainablecompound 'ro(th is mathematicall impossibleGeorge 8onbiot 1/, columnist for /he Guardian, has held visiting fello0ships or professorships at theuniversities of 2@ford collapse>and>salvation>are>hard>to>distinguish>from>each>otherC

/o succeed is to destroy ourselves. /o fail is to destroy ourselves. /hat is the bind 0e have created. #gnore if you must climate

change, biodiversity collapse, the depletion of0ater, soil, minerals, oil even if all these

issues(ere miraculousl to vanish 3 the mathematics of compound 'ro(th make

continuit impossible .;Economic gro0th is an artefact of the use of fossil fuels. Jefore large amounts of coal 0ere e@tracted, everyups0ing in industrial production 0ould be met 0ith a do0ns0ing in agricultural production, as the charcoal or horse po0er reIuired by industry

reduced the land available for gro0ing food. Every prior industrial revolution collapsed, as gro0th could not be

sustainedrich,0ho set the pace for global consumption.Are their yachts getting smallerP

/heir housesP /heir art0or6sP /heir purchase of rare 0oods, rare fish, rare stoneP /hose 0ith the means buy ever bigger houses to store thegro0ing stash of stuff they 0ill not live long enough to use. Jy unremar6ed accretions, ever more of the surface of the planet is used to e@tract,manufacture and store things 0e don7t need. 1erhaps it7s unsurprising that fantasies about the colonisation of space 0hich tell us 0e can e@port our

problems instead of solving them have resurfaced


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8onbiot#s (ron'???transition#s inevitable3 doin' it sooner#s ke to avoid

extinction1aul @in'snorth H, 0riter, founder of the Lar6 ountain 1roKect, C)CB, #s /here Any 1oint in:ighting to Stave off #ndustrial ApocalypseP,% /he Guardian,

http"CC000.alternet.orgCstoryC)8*(+)CisQthereQanyQpointQinQfightingQtoQstaveQoffQindustrialQapocal

ypsePpage(*H*\pagingoff\currentQpage)boo6mar6

Aeor'e O 8onbiot3 he and @in'snorth are (ritin' to each other in a debate

Lear George

ou say that you detect in my 0riting a yearning for apocalypse. # detect in yours a paralysing fear.

ou have convinced yourselfthat there are only t0o possible futures available to humanity. 2ne 0e

might call -iberal Hapitalist Lemocracy *.(. Hlearly your preferred option, this is much li6e the 0orld 0e live in no0, only

0ithfossil fuels replaced by solar panelsM governments and corporations held to account by active citizensM and gro0th

someho0 cast aside in favour of a Ysteady state economyY.

/he other 0e might callcHarthy 0orld, from Hormac cHarthy3s novel /he $oad 0hich is set in an impossibly

hideous post>apocalyptic 0orld ,0here everything is dead but humans,0ho are reduced to eating children.!ot long ago you suggested in a column that such a future could a0ait us if 0e didn3t continue Ythe fightY.

ou r letter continue s mining this9obbesianvein.We have to Yfight onY because0ithout modern

industrial civilisation the psychopaths 0ill ta6e over , and there 0ill

debate round all-state

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