Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained Future of

Pakistan

Dr. Zaigham Habib

Water Debate

1.Pakistan in Global Context

2.Natural Water Scenario

3.Understanding Future Constraints

4.Some of the Solutions

Need for a Debate

Debate, dialogue and consultation - different communication processes

Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn) – scientific & issue specific, leads to opinion formation & selection of solutions

Dialogue (discourse, convey) – bringing close diverse interests and stakeholders

Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd

opinion) - a tool to refine solutions

Lack of Debates in water Sector Argue, question, disagree formulate solutions and options

1.Diverse technical opinions are least discussed – leading to limited solutions and narrow perceptions

2.Scientific options not taken neutrally

3.Too much consumed by the fear of talking about “bad solutions/ options”

4.A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity

Where is this 0.5 % of fresh water? 10^6 km3 stored in aquifers. 11.9 103 km3 net rainfall falling after accounting for evaporation.• 91*103 km3 in natural lakes• 5 103 km3 in man made storage -7 fold increase since 1950.• 2,120 km3 in rivers – constantly replaced from rainfall and melting snow and ice.

Fresh Water – Global Picture

Per Capita Gross Renewable water 2000

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

Mal

dive

sS

inga

pore

Bah

rain

Isra

elO

man

Bur

undi

Ant

igua

and

Sou

th A

fric

aB

urki

na F

aso

Eth

iopi

aP

akis

tan

Cze

ch R

epub

licIn

dia

Chi

naG

erm

any

T

ogo

Nig

erU

nite

d K

ingd

omU

krai

neF

ranc

eIr

aqC

uba

Arm

enia

Aze

rbai

jan

Sud

anC

had

Phi

lippi

nes

Por

tuga

lS

witz

erla

ndB

otsw

ana

Kyr

gyz

Rep

ublic

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

ofIr

elan

dT

urkm

enis

tan

Hon

dura

sG

eorg

iaE

ston

iaG

uine

a-B

issa

uS

erbi

a an

dLa

tvia

Bru

nei

Sie

rra

Leon

eC

ambo

dia

Uru

guay

Pan

ama

Equ

ator

ial G

uine

aC

hile

Per

uC

anad

a

m3

/ p

ers

on

/ y

ea

r 2

00

0

Physical water scarcity --

Per Capita Withdrawal

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500U

gand

aR

wan

daA

ngol

aM

ozam

biqu

eC

ape

Ver

deK

enya

Cam

eroo

nE

ritre

aM

alaw

iF

ijiLa

tvia

Hon

dura

sT

anza

nia

Jam

aica

Gua

tem

ala

Mon

golia

El S

alva

dor

Slo

vaki

aE

quat

oria

l Gui

nea

Nic

arag

uaP

anam

aIr

elan

dS

wed

enIs

rael

Bra

zil

Phi

lippi

nes

Qat

arLe

bano

nM

oroc

coC

hina

Laos

New

Zea

land

Tur

key

Fra

nce

Indi

aM

yanm

arB

elgi

umC

uba

Arg

entin

aG

reec

eG

eorg

iaB

ulga

riaLi

thua

nia

Sud

anP

akis

tan

Mac

edon

iaT

haila

ndU

nite

d S

tate

s of

Aze

rbai

jan

Kaz

akhs

tan

m3

/ pe

rso

n /y

ea

rA water based Economy ---

Fresh water withdrawals per hectare

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

m3

/ ha

/ ye

ar

Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average

Physical and economic water scarcity

Per capita

Eastern rivers

Groundwater catchments

Some FactsArea: 803,940 km2 Population: 160 millionClimate: Arid; variable rainfall, river inflows & groundwater quality

Gross Available Water

Rainfall = Avg. 45 MAF (30 to 90 MAF)

Rivers Inflow = 135 MAF (average 1978 – 2006)

Groundwater = 50 to 60 MAF

Monthly Inflow of high and low flow years Tarbella

0

7

14

21

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JAN

FE

B

MA

R

Mo

nth

ly I

nfl

ow

(m

af) 1959-60

1974-751973-742001-02

Eastern Rivers Ravi and Sutlej component at Balloki and Sulamanki

R2 = 0.56

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

19

61

-62

19

63

-64

19

65

-66

19

67

-68

19

69

-70

19

71

-72

19

73

-74

19

75

-76

19

77

-78

19

79

-80

19

81

-82

19

83

-84

19

85

-86

19

87

-88

19

89

-90

19

91

-92

19

93

-94

19

95

-96

19

97

-98

19

99

-00

20

01

-02

20

03

-04

An

nu

al f

low

s in

ma

f

Ravi + Sutlej

Expon. (Ravi +Sutlej)

Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India – as a result of Indus Water Treaty

Indus Rivers Annual Outflow versus Inflow 1976 - 2006

R2 = 0.86

R2 = 0.72

R2 = 0.94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Inflow in MAF

Ou

tflo

w b

elo

w k

otr

i - M

AF

1976-86

1986-96

1996-2006

Tubewell Growth in Pakistan Since 1950

0

200

400

600

800

1950

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2007

Th

ousa

nd

s

No

of w

ells

Total reportedTubewells

Estimated Groundwater Extraction

0

30

60

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1998

2001

2004

Mill

ion

acr

e fe

et (

MA

F)

Changed Ecology along the Rivers

The riverine natural vegetation and non-irrigated agriculture is replaced by the well irrigation.

The flood based forest have severely damaged during recent drought years

Increased uses from rivers and decreased drainage inflow can cause local floods

Computed net Losses rivers and link canals as a function of Gross Inflow

R2 = 0.75

-50

-25

0

120 170 220 270 320 370Gross Annual Inflow (Riv er+rain)

Riv

er L

osse

s as

a f

unct

ion

of I

nflo

w +

rai

n

'selected y ears 1974 to 1997 Losses 1998-2000

Average Groundwater Levels Punjab

350

400

450

500

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

199

0

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

De

pth

to

wa

ter

tab

le (

cm

)

Average aquifer depth - pre monsoon

350

450

550

650

J-7

8

J-8

0

J-8

2

J-8

4

J-8

6

J-8

8

J-9

0

J-9

2

J-9

4

J-9

6

J-9

8

J-0

0

Fro

m t

he

gro

un

d in

cm

MAILSI

L-DEPALPUR

Groundwater Aquifer

Many issues

Actual potential

Limited monitoring grid

Sustainability of use patterns

High value for farmers

Control mechanism

Demand in 2025 crossing total availability

Water Constrained Future

1. Permanent Physical Scarcity - population

2. Most of the water has already been utilized

3. Natural water cushions depleting

4. Water based economy – high manpower, low productivity

5. Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on surface storages

6. New water use sectors are emerging

7. Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and potential

8. Climate Changes

Towards Solutions

Meeting demands of Socio economic and environment sectors

Solution in hand - surface storage

• Good Scope for hydropower

• Limited water for agriculture from storage

• Domestic & infrastructure big claimers in future

• Environmental needs – an essential area to be considered

Expanding Management Approaches ConventionalLinear cause-effect solutions

Scope limited, problems deep-rooted Replicability assuming neutral Context(conservation & drainage technologies, farm practices, crops selection etc.) Complex drivers of change and management

Comprehensive adaptive Manage the Cause as well

Protect resource base and long term resilience Effective demand managementDiversification of water-intensive production

Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Base – in quantity

Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy

Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India from planning 11 projects on western rivers;

– Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan

– Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on Pakistan side

Natural Water cycle must be maintained for resilience

Protect all water bodies; rivers, lakes and flood plains

Groundwater aquifer – artificial recharge in fresh zone

minimize/drain effluent in saline area

Quality Management and control

Many Grey Areas

Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and lakes – treat at source, reuse

waste water treatment – set examples

Drainage management – lessons learned?

Drainage functions of rivers and main canals

Groundwater quality – exact issue ?

Leaching of agri lands

Excess water used in saline areas

Productivity of water in AgricultureProductivity of water in Agriculture• Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50% complete

• Field level water efficient technologies new initiative

• Value addition increasing trends

• Talking about “green to gene revolution”

Yet, • The yield of major crops stagnant

• Uncertainty for farmers has increased

• Public sector investments increasing and essential

Food security & Agriculture

National policy about produce, market and trade

Food security important because of declining production of wheat in USA & Australia,

Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits & maize

A link between livelihood oriented small marginal farming and food grain production consistent

Potential of rain-fed and saline areas

wheat Rice Cotton sugarcane Maize

World 2.91 4.0 1.95 65.6 4.75

Punjab India 4.39 3.40 0.31 60.96 2.49

India average 2.67 3.0 0.8 69.95 1.9

China 4.23 6.27 3.38 66.01 5.1

Egypt 6.01 9.5 2.6 61.95 8.0

Pakistan 2.59 2 2.3 48.91 2.85

Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other Countries tons/hectare 2005

GVP/CCA

0

100

200

300

400

500

U.C

.CM

-R-L

INK

C.B

.D.C

.D

PR U

PD

PR L

OW

L.C

.C E

ast

L.C

.C W

est

LCC

U.J

.CL.

J.C

Thal

L.B.

D.C

Hav

eli S

idhn

aiM

ails

iPa

kpat

anFo

rdw

ahEa

ster

n Sa

diqi

aQ

aim

Abba

sia

Baha

wal

Panj

nad

D.G

.Kha

nM

uzza

farg

arR

angp

ur

PAT

& D

eser

tBe

gari

Gho

tki

Nor

th W

est

Ric

e ca

nal

Dad

uKh

airp

ur W

est

Khai

rpur

Eas

tR

ohri

Nar

aKa

lriLi

ned

Can

alFu

liliPi

nyar

i

Pro

duct

ion

/ ha

(U

S$)

GVP /CCA

Canal Supplies in mm

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

U.C

.C

M-R

-LIN

K

C.B

.D.C

.

DP

R U

P

DP

R L

OW

L.C

.C

Eas

t

L.C

.C W

est

LCC

U.J

.C

L.J.

C

Tha

l

L.B

.D.C

Hav

eli S

idhn

ai

Mai

lsi

Pak

pata

n

For

dwah

Eas

tern

Sad

iqia

Qai

m

Abb

asia

Bah

awal

Pan

jnad

D.G

.Kha

n

Muz

zafa

rgar

Ran

gpur

PA

T &

Des

ert

Beg

ari

Gho

tki

Nor

th W

est

Ric

e ca

nal

Dad

u

Kha

irpur

Wes

t

Kha

irpur

Eas

t

Roh

ri

Nar

a

Kal

ri

Line

d C

anal

Ful

ili

Pin

yari

Wat

er d

epth

fo

r C

CA

(m

m)

Evapotranspiration from Gross Command area

0

400

800

1200

1600U

.C.C

M-R

-LIN

KC

.B.D

.C.

DP

R U

PD

PR

LO

WL.

C.C

Eas

tL.

C.C

Wes

tLC

CU

.J.C

L.J.

CT

hal

L.B

.D.C

Hav

eli

Mai

lsi

Pak

pata

nF

ordw

ahE

aste

rnQ

aim

Abb

asia

Bah

awal

Pan

jnad

D.G

.Kha

nM

uzza

farg

arR

angp

ur

PA

T &

Beg

ari

Gho

tki

Nor

th W

est

Ric

e ca

nal

Dad

uK

hairp

urK

hairp

urR

ohri

Nar

aK

alri

Line

d C

anal

Ful

iliP

inya

ri

Act

ual

Et

in m

m

Gross Value of Production in Kharif

0

24000

48000

72000

Farm numbers

Average =11444 Rs/ha

Gross Value of Production- Rabi 1994-95

0

7000

14000

21000

1 34 67 100 133 166 199 232 265 298 331 364 397 430 463 496 529

Farm numbers

GV

P-

PA

K R

s/ha

Average = 6053 Rs/ha

Meeting Agriculture Targets

• Economically feasible agriculture model for small farms (inputs, technologies, markets)

• Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge

• Crop zoning

• Low water use and salinity tolerant crops

• Livestock sub-sector

• New opportunities for rural labor force shifting from farming; agro-based industry, local business

Domestic, infrastructure supplies

A big future Challenge

Safe drinking water promised to all

Municipal supplies to big cities, semi-urban and advance rural areas

New infrastructure and down developments

Scenario Potable I: Only drinking water requirements

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mil

lio

n g

allo

ns

per

day

Potable-I Min.

Potable-I Max.

1.5 gallon/c/d

Urban = 2.5 gallon/cap/dayrural = 2.0

Sanitation scenarios based on minimum survival level and high water demand assumptions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

n g

allo

ns

per

day Sanitation min. requirements

Sanitation high requirement

Domestic requirements based on current municipal supply and urbanization trends

0

6

12

18

24

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2030 2040 2050

Gro

ss a

nn

ual

bcm

Rural BCM Urban BCMs

From where this water will come?

1.Main storages – needs for allocation, transfer from agriculture

From Existing canal system – some allocations in saline areas, more will be required for new projects

Local surface resources: small rivers, lakes – replacement or protection

Groundwater – largest access, quality and quantity threatened

Approach for domestic supply management

• Protect quality of all water resources

• Priority to local resources

• Allocate and account all uses

Demand side measures can not be postponed

• Capacity of household appliances

• Rain harvesting wherever possible

• Control on infrastructure, commercial uses

• Household waste management

• Pricing

Regional Context

NWFP: high allocations after seventies, natural drainage collapsing, pollution of water bodies, local water access.

Lower Indus: Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall, riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift towards perennial crops, livelihood dependence on wetlands, lakes & unallocated resources high, demand for delta

Punjab: water shortage in cash crop areas, cultivation extending outside canal irrigated area, groundwater depleting, recharge sources decreasing, rivers pollution and dry conditions.

Balochistan: groundwater fast depleting, local harvesting not reliable, domestic and sanitation

Sustainable Future

• Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???)

• Actions at regional, local and users levels (water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and regulation)

• National capacity to define issues and select sustainable solutions (drivers of management)

• Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and scientific models (who needs it? Public sector, users, donors?)

Thank You