debbie madden budgeting vs estimating for agile projects
DESCRIPTION
Since 2001, many who use Agile have been estimating stories and tasks. Last year, the #noestimates movement took hold. But, at the end of the day "How Much Is this Going to Cost" is a fair question, and it's up to the technical team and CTOs to answer the question. How? By budgeting. Often, the decision you need to make is a strategic one, not a granular one. Estimates are valuable for iterations and sprints. They aren't valuable for higher level decisions like deciding to build a product or determining how much VC to Raise. In this presentation, I take you through a method to budget and not estimate projects for maximum ROI.TRANSCRIPT
Budgeting vs. Estimatingfor Agile Projects
Debbie Madden
CEO, Stride
stride.nyc
@debbiemadden200
How Much Is This Going to Cost?
stride.nyc
PART I: ESTIMATING –A HISTORY
PART II: THE PROBLEM
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
PART I: ESTIMATING –A HISTORY
PART II: THE PROBLEM
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
stride.nyc
2001: Agile Manifesto
stride.nyc
stride.nyc
stride.nyc
2013 – EstimateGate
• #noestimates
• “Estimation is neither good nor bad” Martin Fowler (Feb)
• “Estimation is Evil” Ron Jeffries (Feb)
• “Estimation is a Necessary Evil” Ron Jeffries (April)
stride.nyc
PART I: ESTIMATING –A HISTORY
PART II: THE PROBLEM
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
How Much Is This Going to Cost?
stride.nyc
stride.nyc
stride.nyc
Teams Don’t Like Estimating
Takes a lot of time
There’s uncertainty
Estimates gets abused
Locks team into feature-level decisions prematurely
stride.nyc
PART I: ESTIMATING –A HISTORY
PART II: THE PROBLEM
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
Step 1: Identify Decisions
Should We…• Start this project or kill it?
• Hire more people or outsource?
• Start marketing this feature?
• Build this project next or deprioritize it?
• Launch a startup?
• Allocate budget this quarter?
• Code this set of stories next?
stride.nyc
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
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Step 2: Match Precision to Decision
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stride.nyc
• < 1,000 foot view
• Iterations
• Sprints
• > 1,000 foot view
• Prioritizing Projects
• Starting Projects
• Hiring/Outsourcing
• Allocate Budget
• Start a Company
Estimating Budgeting
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Estimate When Necessary
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If you can’t identify which decision you are making, estimating AND budgeting are both a waste of time.
stride.nyc
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
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Step 3: Budget
Time
Bu
dge
t A
ccu
racy
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
How Much Is This Going to Cost? ___?____
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
How Much Is This Going to Cost? _____________
Title
Author
Within Book
1 – 2 weeks
1 – 2 weeks
?
2 – 4 weeks + ?
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
How Much Is This Going to Cost? _____________
Title
Author
Within Book
1 – 2 weeks
1 – 2 weeks
4– 16 weeks
6 - 20 weeks
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
How Much Is This Going to Cost? _____________
Title
Author
Within Book
1 -2 weeks
1 – 2 weeks
stride.nyc
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
stride.nyc
Step 4: Ranges and Confidence Levels
Online Book Store
Topic
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
Total: 31 - 180
Time (weeks)
4 - 8
1 - 2
6 - 26
12 - 96
8 - 48
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Topic
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
Total: 31 - 180
Time (weeks)
4 - 8
1 - 2
6 - 26
12 - 96
8 - 48
stride.nyc
Money
100k – 200k
25k – 50k
150k – 450k
300k – 2.4M
200k – 1.2M
775k - 4.3M
Range
• Decision: Should we build this project?
• Data: We expect the project to cost 775k – 4.3M
stride.nyc
Range
• Decision: Should we build this project?
• Data: We expect the project to cost 775k – 4.3M
If Budget = $500k No
If Budget = $5M Yes
If Budget = $2.5M Maybe
stride.nyc
Online Book Store
Topic
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search Books
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside of Book
Money
100k – 200k
25k – 50k
150k – 450k
300k – 2.4M
200k – 1.2M
stride.nyc
Time
4 - 8
1 - 2
6 - 26
12 - 96
8 - 48
Priority
1
2
4
3
5
Online Book Store
Topic
Shopping Cart
Browse Books
Search BooksAuthorTitleWithin Book
Manage Inventory
Preview Inside Book
Money
100k – 200k
25k – 50k
150k – 450k
300k – 2.4M
200k – 1.2M stride.nyc
Time
4 - 8
1 - 2
6 - 26
12 - 96
8 - 48
Priority
1
2
4
3
5
Required?
Y
Y
YYNY
Y
Nate Silver
stride.nyc
Ballpark
stride.nyc
Ballpark
stride.nyc
Ballpark
stride.nyc
PART III: THE 4 STEP SOLUTION
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Step 1: Identify Decisions
Step 2: Match Precision to Decision
Step 3: Budget
Step 4: Ranges and Confidence Levels
Ballpark – For You
• stride.nyc/ballpark
• Code - cto-summit
• Free - 60-minute budgeting session
• Free - Ballpark for 3 months
stride.nyc
