decadal change in east asian monsoon climate system ... · easm index: standardized 850hpa and...
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2011-9-13 By Xiu-Qun YANG Nanjing University 1
Xiuqun [email protected]
Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences,
Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, CHINA
Decadal Change in East Asian Monsoon Climate System: Natural Variability vs Anthropogenic Forcing
International Conference on Science and Technology for Sustainability 2011Building from Regional to Global Sustainability-Visions from Asia
September 14-16, 2011, Kyoto International Conference Center
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Schematic illustrating progression from initial value problems with dailyweather forecasts at one end, and multidecadal to century projections as a
forced boundary condition problem at the other, with seasonal and decadalprediction in between
Meehl, et al. BAMS, 2009
Why emphasize the decadal change?
Natural signature vs. anthropogenic forcing
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2011-9-13 By Xiu-Qun YANG Nanjing University 3
What is the observed decadal change in East Asian monsoon climate system ?
Can such a decadal change be considered as natural variability (say, the PDO’s impact)?
What is the role of increased CO2 and aerosols?
Summary
Issues
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Climatological East Asian Summer Monsoon
Winter(DJF)
Summer(JJA)
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Interdecadal variabilities of 9-yr running averaged precipitation in eastern China since 1900
Northern China
Yangtze River valley
Southern China
Sun, 2006
1980s
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EASM Index: Standardized 850hPa and surface v-component (110 º- 125 ºE,20 º- 40 ºN)
NCEP/NCAR
ERA-40
Observed
1979-92
1993-04
1951-78
Decadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon and southward shift of rainbelt in China
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Wang, Ding, Jhun 2006 GRL
Decadal change of EASM rainfall (1948-2004) over whole East Asian domain
Post-1976 minus Pre-1976