ANA2019 Conference, Ultimo, NSW, 27 September 2019 3

Presentation 2 – Session 1

Decarbonising Energy Transition in China

Kejun Jiang

Senior Researcher, Energy Research Institute (ERI),

National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China

Biography

Kejun Jiang’s research focus is energy, climate

change mitigation and air pollution prevention policy

assessment by using IPAC modeling, to support

national five-year plans and long-term planning. He

began his research in ERI from 1990 and led the

development of Integrated Policy Assessment Model

for China (IPAC). IPAC modeling team is now a

leading research team on China’s 2050 energy

transition studies by providing benchmark research

results. Major research focus includes energy and

emission scenarios, energy policy, energy system,

energy market analysis, and climate change, local

environment policies and international negotiation.

He also was an author of IPCC for Special Report on

Emission Scenario from 1997 and Working Group III

Third Assessment Report, lead author for IPCC

WGIII AR4 Chapter 3, and lead author for GEO-4 Chapter 2, CLA in WGIII of IPCC AR5,

LA for IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, CLA of IPCC Special Report on 1.5℃ Warning, Vice

Co-Chair of GEO6. From 2010, he is author for UNEP Emission Gaps and lead author of IPCC

AR6 WGIII. He also joined international research collaboration projects such as EMF, FP6,

FP7 and H2020 research projects. He is member of Scientific Panel of UNEP CCAC, and

Scientific Committee of IAMC.

He has a PhD in Social Engineering from the Tokyo Institute of Technology.

ABSTRACT

In Paris Agreement, there are targets setup for 2100 to be well below 2℃. 1.5℃ is getting to

be the ambitious target appeared in the agreement. However, there is quite lack of studies about

1.5℃ target's emission pathway, and it is hard to get people convinced that this target is

reasonable. In order to answer the question whether this target is achievable o not, with the

requirement from UNFCCC, IPCC launched the process to prepare Special Report on 1.5℃

Target, and this report was scheduled to be published by 2018. Recently there are few

4 ANA2019 Conference, Ultimo, NSW, 27 September 2019

researches about global emission pathway on 1.5℃ target presented the modeling results, it

suggested that the global emission will go to zero emission in between 2050 and 2060, and

start negative emission afterwards. This presentation shows the analysis for China under the

global 1.5℃ pathway and budget, by looking at key options to go beyond from the 2℃ target

pathway. Similar with the global emission pathway, China's CO2 emission also need to reduced

quickly and to be zero emission in between 2050 and 2060. From now on, China energy system

need to be quick transition and make much more reduction for fossil fuel use. End use sector

need to increase much electricity use. Renewable energy and nuclear power play much more

important role. Power generation will to be negative emission before 2050. CCS would be

widely used, BECCS need to be adopted in large scale in 2040. This is doable in China but

need very near term changing in policy to make such kind of pathway happen.

1

Energy Transition in China Toward to 2050

Jiang Kejun

Energy Research Institute, China

ANA2019 Conference, Sidney, Sep.27, 2019

ERI, ChinaERI, China

We Need Rapid Transition：Put that into 13th Five Year Plan

Primary Energy Demand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Primary Energy Demand in China, 2℃ scenario A Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass

PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

PM2.5 Concentration is much higher than standard

PM2.5 annual concentration from 2013-

2015PM2.5 concentration of 74 cities in 2013

➢ 2013年京津冀地区所有城市PM2.5年均浓度均超标，区域内PM2.5年平均浓度达106µg/m3，虽2014、2015年空气质量有所改善，但仍大幅超过国家空气质量二级标准。

35

If WHO recommended standard, Emission from energy

activities will be 0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

tC

O2

CO2 Emission

BAU

LC

ELC

2度1

2度2

1.5度

China’s MCS: a proposal

MCS Targets

6

Policy roadmap toward to the targets

• Targets setting: 2℃ for sure, make effort for 1.5 ℃

• Policy design: no loser policies

• Policies in today: strongest, maybe weak in future

• Technology progress will play key-key role

• Need strong climate change strategy to set up long term targets

for 2℃ and 1.5 ℃

7

No Loser Policies

• Purpose: help sectors which are negative impacted to quit

without damages

• Increase subsidy to coal related sectors

• Coal phasing out with the subsidy: increase electricity price

from coal fired power plants, make sure to get their investment

pay back.

• Policies to support unemployment from these sectors

• Subsidy comes from government budget, and additional charge

from power sector

8

Today’s policy: already very strong

• Subsidy for renewable energy: highest period, then will be

reduced to be zero in near future

• Subsidy for electric car: highest period, then will be reduced to

be zero in near future

• Subsidy for energy saving

• Budget for unemployment in China’s supply side reforming:

help more than 3million workers from 2015 to 2017

9

Policies for 2 and 1.5 targets not necessarily

stronger than today

If EU can do, China will also do it.

We can change the world!

Zero emission future is a big opportunities to

promote transition of economy in China.

11

12

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500 19

80

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

Mto

e

Primary Energy In China

Other Energy

Natural gas

Petroleum

Coal

We Need Rapid Transition：Put that into 13th Five Year Plan

Primary Energy Demand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Primary Energy Demand in China, 2℃ scenario A Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass

PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Power Generation, 2℃ Scenario A

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

15

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

!0M

WInstalled Capacity, 2 ℃Scenario

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

16

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GW

Power generation capacity with CCS

NGCC

IGCC-Fuel Cell

IGCC

US-Critical

Super Critical

17

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

4500.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

to

n-C

O2

CO2 emission in power sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

TPE, 1.5℃ Scenario

Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Power Generation, 1.5℃ Scenario

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

煤炭消费量

其他

居民

供热

炼焦

建材

钢铁

发电

Coal demand in China

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

百万

吨C

O2

CO2排放量, 1.5度情景

CO2 Emission, 1.5℃

20

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt

CO2 Emission by Type of City

Eco-based City

iIndustrial City

Integrated Development City

City with Tertiary Sector Oriented

21

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

t-C

O2

CO2 Emission Per Capita

City with Tertiary Sector Oriented

Integrated Development City

iIndustrial City

Eco-based City

22

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

CO2 Emission in Beijing

23

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

TW

h

Power generation in Beijing

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas with CCS

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

24

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

10

^4

kW

Installed Capacity in Beijing

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas with CCS

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

25

Subway Development in China

26

CO2 SO2

NOx PM2.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

mil

lio

n t

on

PM2.5 emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

n

NOx Emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

mil

lio

n t

on

SO2 Emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

n

CO2 Emisison in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

27

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

1000

ton

N2O Emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

1000

ton

CH4 Emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

ton

Mercury emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

1000

ton

Black Carbon Emission in China

2℃ scenario

1.5℃ scenario

28

29

By 2016, There are 260million electric bike in China

四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析

4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors

◼ 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs

32

New Battery for vehicles and power storage

33

34

35

2015:

43.18GW

36

+24.5GW from Jan. to June 2017

+53GW in 2017

+24.3GW from Jan. to June 2018

+20GW in second half 2018

38

39

NASA images show stunning progress of

China’s vast 850 MW Longyangxia Solar Park

2013 2017

40

By Aug.21, 2018, Sanmen Nuclear Unit #1, the first AP1000 in

the world, made full power generation

By 2030, cost of nuclear power will be lower than coal fired

power in China

41

By 2020, power generation cost of solar PV will be lower than

that of coal fired power plants in China

By 2018, power generation cost of wind is lower than that of

coal fired power plants in China

42

End use technologies are getting to be nearly most efficient,

small space for energy conservation

In the2 and 1.5 ℃ scenarios, end use technologies will

mainly be electricity based.

Energy efficient technologies are getting cheaper, and not

much space for low efficiency ones

43

No carbon pricing needed after 2020

44

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

201020152020202520302035204020452050

10

^8

Yu

an, 2

01

0 P

rice

GDP

Baseline

2degree

1.6% higher for 2 degree scenario in 2050

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

201020152020202520302035204020452050

10

^8

Yu

an, 2

01

0 P

rice

Consumption

Baseline

2degree

1.7% higher for 2 degree scenario in 2050

Mitigation Would Increase GDP!

45

Scenario Analysis:

Japan

Korea

China

India

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Nepal

Vietnam

Cambodia

Laos

Philippine

A 2 degree Asia: A good way to understand the global target

46

China’s IPCC report: Assessment of China’s Climate

Change and Eco-system, publish in 2021

• Focusing on 2 and 1.5 targets

• Modeling team are invited to submit scenarios for China:

database available soon

• Papers are encouraged to be published focusing on China’s

scenario, papers from 2012 to 2019 will be included for review