december 2017 - mefic...11.3% yoy drop in time and savings deposits that peaked at sar 498bn in...
TRANSCRIPT
-
MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC REVIEW – SAUDI ARABIA
December 2017
Review of economic developments till end of November.
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 2
Table of Content
A. Executive Summary and Review .......................................................................... 3
B. Chart Pack ................................................................................................................ 7
I. Macroeconomic Indicators......................................................................................... 7
II. Oil Indicators ................................................................................................................ 13
III. Stock Market Indicators ............................................................................................. 14
IV. Corporate earnings .................................................................................................... 15
V. Tadawul Sector Earnings Performance .................................................................... 16
C. Saudi Arabia Key Statistics ................................................................................... 17
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 3
A. Executive Summary and Review
Executive Summary
The key highlights are:
1. Oil production – KSA marginally decreased oil production,
and produced 9.97 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd) in
November 2017, to maintain production limit.
2. Inflation – Deflation aggravated during Oct-17 to -0.2%,
extending the trend for the tenth straight month.
Consumer demand apparently continues to be weak in
key areas, led by weakness in transport prices.
3. Non-oil private sector growth – The Saudi PMI reached its
highest level in two years in November, at 57.5, supported
by strong export orders.
4. Credit growth – Bank credit declined by 1.8% in October
2017 on a YoY basis to SAR 1.409tn, recording the largest
drop in a decade, mainly attributable to decline in
private sector lending.
5. POS transactions – POS transactions increased 15.0% YoY
to SAR 16.4bn in October 2017, strongest growth in two
years. Cumulative YTD POS transactions till October have
increased 7.7% YoY to SAR163bn in 2017.
Oil prices move up, supported by extension
of oil production cut deal:
In the last week of November, OPEC and other non-member
allies agreed to prolong oil production cuts till the end of
2018, extending the efforts to bring back control of the global
oil market from the shale industry. The effort to cut supply
collectively by 1.72 mbpd (from October 2016 production
level as reference) was joined by Libya and Nigeria, which
were previously exempt from the agreement. Overall, the
extension of the deal will help alleviate uncertainty about
supply in 2018.
During November, the OPEC countries cut production by
another 80,000 bpd compared to last month, meeting the
overall production cut target of 1.176 mbpd. Total crude
output during November stood at 32.47 mbpd compared to
32.55 mbpd during October 2017. Angola and Kuwait
shouldered the most cuts, by cutting production by 100,000
bpd and 50,000 bpd, respectively. Iraq and Qatar offset
these efforts on the other hand by raising output by 40,000
and 30,000 bpd, respectively.
Data Releases
Indicator Data
Inflation (October
2017) -0.2%
PMI (November
2017) 57.5
SAMA Reserve
Assets Growth
MoM (October
2017)
1.7%
Bank Credit
Growth YoY
(October 2017)
-1.8%
Bank Deposit
Growth YoY
(October 2017)
0.5%
Loan to Deposit
Ratio (October
2017)
0.88
Money Supply
Growth YoY
(October 2017)
-0.6%
3M SAIBOR
(October 2017) 1.79%
ATM Withdrawals
Growth YoY
(October 2017)
1.3%
PoS Transactions
Growth YoY
(October 2017)
15.0%
Saudi Oil
Production
(November 2017)
9.97
mbpd
Saudi Oil Exports
(September 2017)
6.5
mbpd
OPEC Production
(November 2017)
32.5
mbpd
Global Oil Supply
– Demand
(October 2017)
0.7
mbpd
US Rig Count
(November 2017)
747
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 4
Figure 1: OPEC Production Cuts (‘000s bpd) Figure 2: Non-OPEC Production cuts (‘000s
bpd)
Source: Bloomberg, As of November 2017 Source: Bloomberg, As of October 2017
Oil production in Saudi Arabia remained below the agreed production target, i.e., willingly
contributing more cuts than agreed. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.97mbpd during November,
marginally lower (-0.4%) than in October. Crude oil export data, which is released with a two
month lag, points at gradual reduction in exports from Saudi Arabia, amounting to -15% fall
on a YTD basis. This is a positive towards balancing the oil market, as Saudi Arabia is
offloading lesser inventory in the open market alongside reduced oil output.
Figure 3: Country wise production cut vs targets (‘000s bpd)
Source: Bloomberg, MEFIC Research
Among OPEC countries, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Angola and Algeria have
exceeded their production cut targets with deeper cuts in November as compared to June,
which was when oil prices began to rally. UAE and Iraq have scaled back their cuts, though
not by a large quantum. Among non-OPEC countries, Russia has met its target cuts in
October, while Mexico has exceeded the target by more than double the production cut.
The cooperation from leading non-OPEC countries like Russia and Mexico has increased the
conviction behind compliance to production cut strategy and is reflecting in rising oil prices.
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Jan
ua
ry
Feb
rua
ry
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Se
pte
mb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
ve
mb
er
Reached Target
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Jan
ua
ry
Feb
rua
ry
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Se
pte
mb
er
Oc
tob
er
Reached Target
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Sa
ud
i Ara
bia
Ira
q
UA
E
Ku
wa
it
Ve
ne
zue
la
An
go
la
Alg
eria
Qa
tar
Ec
ua
do
r
Ga
bo
n
Ru
ssia
Me
xic
o
Om
an
Aze
rba
ijan
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Ma
laysi
a
Ba
hra
in
S.S
ud
an
Bru
ne
i
Su
da
n
Target Production Cut
November (OPEC)/October (Non-OPEC) Production Cut
June Production Cut
OPEC Non-OPEC
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 5
Oil prices are clearly on track towards beating 2017 estimates of USD 52 - 53 per barrel by
international organizations like the IMF and US EIA, which had forecasted them by mid of
2017. Since June 2017, oil prices have rallied as OPEC’s compliance to the production cut
deal picked up from 82% in June to 112% in November. Oil prices averaged USD 62.8 per
barrel in November compared to Q3 average of USD 52.16 per barrel and Q2 average of
USD 50.79 per barrel. Additionally, oil inventories are gradually falling towards their five year
average, which is one of OPEC’s key measures of success. According to member countries,
the goal to re-balance the market hasn’t been met in full yet, hence all countries are in favor
of extension to reach final goals.
Figure 4: Brent Crude Prices (USD/barrel)
Source: Bloomberg
Saudi Non-oil private sector growth strongest in over 2 years
Saudi Arabia Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in November 2017, the highest
level since August 2015. The strong PMI reading was mainly attributable to the sharp rise in oil
prices from USD 57.6 in October to USD 62.8 per barrel in November 2017. The output and
new orders rose at the fastest rate in 2017, which points towards better non-oil sector growth
in the fourth quarter. New orders’ growth was fueled largely by export demand. Input costs
increased marginally, however average selling prices remained unchanged in November
compared to October. Overall, businesses remained optimistic about prospects over the
coming year, although the degree of optimism was slightly weaker than in October.
Inflation decelerates further to -0.2% in October
Headline CPI Inflation dipped further to -0.2% in October after recovering and stabilizing
at -0.1% during August and September 2017. In October, transport prices mainly dragged the
inflation lower (-2.2%) along with weakness in consumption related items like clothing and
footwear, furnishing and household equipment which recorded -3.2% and -1.9% respectively.
Food and beverage items, constituting 22% weight of the inflation general index, saw a
marginal improvement in prices, although still facing a deflationary environment (-1.2%).
Bank Credit growth continues to be negative
Bank credit declined by 1.8% YoY in October 2017 to SAR 1.409tn, recording the largest drop
in a decade, mainly attributable to decline in private sector lending. On a YTD basis, credit
grew 0.6% driven by a 0.8% growth in private sector credit and was broadly unchanged on a
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 6
MoM basis. Banks remained cautious in lending even as Q3 corporate earnings (of listed
companies) improved 18.7% YoY and 28.4% QoQ. Banks cut credit exposure towards the
mining and quarrying sector by 10.8% on a QoQ basis. The manufacturing sector also
witnessed a 2.8% reduction in credit on a QoQ basis.
Figure 5: CPI Inflation (% YoY) Figure 6: Bank credit growth (% YoY)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Money Supply records highest decline in the year
Money supply declined 0.6% YoY to SAR 1.768tn, highest decline in a year, mainly due to
11.3% YoY drop in time and savings deposits that peaked at SAR 498bn in October 2016. The
drop in time and savings deposits was attributable to both businesses and government
entities. Money supply declined 1.1% YTD due to a 10.1% drop in time and savings deposits by
businesses as well as government entities. Demand deposits grew 3.7% YoY to SAR 995bn
mainly driven by higher government entity deposits, although partly offset by lower business
deposits.
October
2017,
-0.2%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
October
2017,
-1.8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-98
Ma
y-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Jan
-02
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-06
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
6
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 7
B. Chart Pack
I. Macroeconomic Indicators
Figure 1: GDP (Constant prices) growth
(quarterly -% YoY) Figure 2: GDP growth (annual - % YoY)
Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics
Figure 3: Non-oil GDP growth (quarterly - %
YoY)
Figure 4: Non-oil GDP growth (annual - %
YoY)
Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics
Figure 5: Inflation (% YoY) Figure 6: Food inflation (% YoY)
Source: Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA) Source: SAMA
Figure 7: PMI index Figure 8: Cement Sales (Mn tons)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Yamama Cement
Q2 2017,
-1.0%
(5)
-
5
10
15
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1 2
017
2016,
1.4%
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Q2 2017,
1.9%
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
Q1
20
11
Q3 2
011
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
17
2016,
1.3%
-5
5
15
25
35
451971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
October
2017,
-0.2%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
October
2017,
-1.2%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Jan
-17
November
2017,
57.5
485052545658606264
Ma
y-1
4
Au
g-1
4
No
v-1
4
Feb
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Au
g-1
5
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Au
g-1
6
No
v-1
6
Feb
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Au
g-1
7
No
v-1
7 1
2
3
4
5
6
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 8
Figure 9: Oil vs Non-oil revenues (% share) Figure 10: Annual fiscal balance (SAR bn)
Source: Saudi Arabia Finance Ministry, E- Estimate Source: Saudi Arabia Finance Ministry, E-Estimate
Figure 11: Current account balance -
quarter (USD bn)
Figure 12: Current account balance -yearly
(USD bn)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 23: Current Account Balance (%GDP) Figure 34: Trade balance (SAR bn)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 15: Trade balance change (% YoY) Figure 16: KSA breakeven oil price (USD/bl)
Source: SAMA Source: Ministry of Finance, Thomson Reuters, MEFIC
estimate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
Oil revenues Non-oil revenues
-15
-5
5
15
25
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
Fiscal Balance (SAR bn) - LHS Fiscal Balance (% GDP) - RHS
Q2 2017,
-2.7
-25-15-55
15253545
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
17
66.8
158.5 164.8
135.4
73.8
-56.7
-24.9
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q2 2017,
-1.6
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
17
143
198
97
144
233 233
208
169
29 43
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
50.3%
-85
-65
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
69
.7
79
.4
74
.3
86
.0
10
4.8
88
.3
59
.5
67
.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Breakeven oil prices (USD) Average brent price (USD)
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 9
Figure 17: Total External Debt (SAR bn) Figure 18: SAMA Reserve Assets* (USD bn)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA,*- includes special drawing rights
Figure 19: Reserve Assets (% MoM) Figure 40: Bank credit growth (% YoY)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 51: Bank credit across major sectors
(SAR bn) Figure 62: Bank Deposits (SAR bn)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 73: Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%) Figure 84: NPL-to-Total Loans (%)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
411.6
0
100
200
300
400
5002004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
October
2017,
493
400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800
Jan
-10
Jul-1
0
Jan
-11
Jul-1
1
Jan
-12
Jul-1
2
Jan
-13
Jul-1
3
Jan
-14
Jul-1
4
Jan
-15
Jul-15
Jan
-16
Au
g-1
6
Feb
-17
Au
g-1
7
October
2017,
1.7
-4-3-2-1012345
Jan
-10
Jul-10
Jan
-11
Jul-1
1
Jan
-12
Jul-1
2
Jan
-13
Jul-1
3
Jan
-14
Jul-1
4
Jan
-15
Jul-1
5
Jan
-16
Au
g-1
6
Feb
-17
Au
g-1
7 October
2017,
-1.8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-98
Ma
y-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Jan
-02
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-06
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
6
0
150
300
450
600
Q1
19
96
Q2 1
997
Q3
19
98
Q4
19
99
Q1
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q3 2
003
Q4
20
04
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
17
Manufacturing and Processing Buiding and Construction Commerce Services
October
2017,
1,600.9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan
-93
Jan
-95
Jan
-97
Jan
-99
Jan
-01
Jan
-03
Jan
-05
Jan
-07
Jan
-09
Jan
-11
Jan
-13
Jan
-15
Jan
-17
October
2017,
88.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Jan
-93
Jan
-95
Jan
-97
Jan
-99
Jan
-01
Jan
-03
Jan
-05
Jan
-07
Jan
-09
Jan
-11
Jan
-13
Jan
-15
Jan
-17
Q3 2017,
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Q1
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q2
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q2
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
17
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 10
Figure 95: Money Supply/M3 growth (% YoY) Figure 106: Composition of M3 money
supply (% share)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 27: Currency Outside Banks (% share
of M3)
Figure 28: Time & Savings Deposits/Total
Deposits (%)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 29: 3M SIBOR (%) Figure 30: Short term interest rate curve (1w
to 52 w)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 31: Inflation (major sub-indices) Figure 32: House Rent Index (100=2007)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
October
2017,
-0.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Ja
n-9
4
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Jan
-06
Jan
-08
Jan
-10
Jan
-12
Jan
-14
Jan
-16
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan
-93
Jun
-94
No
v-9
5
Ap
r-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-0
0
Au
g-0
1
Jan
-03
Jun
-04
No
v-0
5
Ma
y-0
7
Oc
t-0
8
Ma
r-1
0
Au
g-1
1
Feb
-13
Jul-1
4
De
c-1
5
Ma
y-1
7
Currency Outside bank Demand Deposits
Time and Savings Deposits Other Quasi Money Deposits
October
2017,
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
-93
Au
g-9
4
Ma
r-9
6
Oc
t-9
7
Ma
y-9
9
De
c-0
0
Jul-0
2
Feb
-04
Se
p-0
5
Ap
r-07
No
v-0
8
Jun
-10
Jan
-12
Au
g-1
3
Ma
r-1
5
Oc
t-1
6
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan
-93
Jul-9
4
Jan
-96
Jul-9
7
Feb
-99
Au
g-0
0
Feb
-02
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Ap
r-0
8
Oc
t-0
9
Ap
r-1
1
Oc
t-1
2
Ma
y-1
4
No
v-1
5
Ma
y-1
7
October
2017,
1.79
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
-200
7
Oc
t-2
00
7
Jul-2
00
8
Ap
r-2
00
9
Jan
-201
0
Oc
t-2
01
0
Jul-2
01
1
Ap
r-2
01
2
Jan
-201
3
Oc
t-2
01
3
Jul-2
01
4
Ap
r-2
01
5
Jan
-201
6
Oc
t-2
01
6
Jul-2
01
7 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1M
3M
6M
12M
Oct-2017 Dec-2016 Oct-2016
-1.2
October
2017
-0.3
-2.2 -5
0
5
10
15
Jan
-12
Se
p-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
Jan
-14
Se
p-1
4
Ma
y-1
5
Jan
-16
Se
p-1
6
Ma
y-1
7
Food and beverages
Transport
Housing , Water, Electricity, Gas, and other fuels
161.5
167.8
174.4
168.7
155
160
165
170
175
180
2012 2013 2104 2015
October
2017, 27.6
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 11
Figure 33: ATM Cash Withdrawals (SAR bn) Figure 34: Saudi unemployment rate (%)
Source: SAMA Source: Bloomberg
Figure 35: Competitiveness ranking/indicator Figure 36: FDI (accumulated, SAR billions)
Source: World Economic Forum (2016-2017) Source: SAMA
Figure 37: External debt-to-GDP (%) Figure 38: POS Transactions Sales (SAR bn)
Source: International Monetary Fund Source: SAMA
Figure 39: Mobile/Telecom Subscribers (mn) Figure 40: Automobile Sales (‘000s)
Source: Ministry of Communication and IT, Q3 2016
taken as average of Q2 and Q4 2016
Source: Car Sales Base
October
2017,
61.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Ju
l-9
6
Jan
-98
Jul-9
9
Jan
-01
Jul-0
2
Jan
-04
Jul-0
5
Jan
-07
Jul-0
8
Jan
-10
Jul-1
1
Jan
-13
Jul-1
4
Jan
-16
Jul-1
7
Q2 2017,
12.8
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
17
16 18
29
38
48
66
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
United
Arab
Qatar Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait Bahrain Oman
868.1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016,
17%
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
-95
Au
g-9
6
Ma
r-9
8
Oc
t-9
9
Ma
y-0
1
De
c-0
2
Jul-0
4
Feb
-06
Se
p-0
7
Ap
r-0
9
No
v-1
0
Jun
-12
Jan
-14
Au
g-1
5
Ma
r-1
7
October 2017,
16.4
43.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1 2
016
Q2 2
016
Q3 2
016
Q4 2
016
Q1 2
017
Q2 2
017
679.5
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 12
Figure 41: Electricity Generation (TWh) Figure 42: Electricity Generation - Quarterly
(TWh)
Source: Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory
Authority
Source: Saudi Electric Company
Figure 43: Cement Prices (SAR, 50kg) Figure 44: Steel Prices (SAR/ton)
Source: General Authority of Statistics Source: General Authority of Statistics
Figure 45: Expat Remittances (SAR bn)
Source: SAMA
287.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3502007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
103.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
16
Q1 2
017
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
October
2017,
12.3
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jan
-07
Oc
t-0
7
Jul-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Jan
-10
Oc
t-10
Jul-11
Ap
r-1
2
Jan
-13
Oc
t-1
3
Jul-1
4
Ap
r-1
5
Jan
-16
Oc
t-1
6
Jul-1
7
October
2017,
2,361
8
1,008
2,008
3,008
4,008
5,008
6,008
Jan
-07
No
v-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Jul-0
9
Ma
y-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jan
-12
No
v-1
2
Se
p-1
3
Jul-1
4
Ma
y-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jan
-17
October
2017
12.2
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
-95
Jan
-97
Jan
-99
Jan
-01
Jan
-03
Jan
-05
Jan
-07
Jan
-09
Jan
-11
Jan
-13
Jan
-15
Jan
-17
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 13
II. Oil Indicators
Figure 1: Saudi Oil Production (mbpd) Figure 2: Saudi Domestic Consumption
(mbpd)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Reuters Datastream
Figure 3: Saudi Oil Export (mbpd) Figure 4: OPEC Oil Production (mbpd)
Source: Ministry of Petroleum, JODI, Source: Bloomberg
Figure 5: Global Oil Supply/Demand (mbpd) Figure 6: US Oil Production (mbpd)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 7: US Oil Inventory (mb) Figure 8: US Rig Count
Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Bloomberg
November
2017, 9.97
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
De
c-7
0
Feb
-74
Ap
r-7
7
Jun
-80
Au
g-8
3
Oc
t-8
6
De
c-8
9
Feb
-93
Ap
r-9
6
Jun
-99
Au
g-0
2
Oc
t-05
De
c-0
8
Feb
-12
Ap
r-1
5
June 2016,
3.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
September
2017,
6.5
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
November
2017,
32.5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
De
c-8
7
De
c-8
9
De
c-9
1
De
c-9
3
De
c-9
5
De
c-9
7
De
c-9
9
De
c-0
1
De
c-0
3
De
c-0
5
De
c-0
7
De
c-0
9
De
c-1
1
De
c-1
3
De
c-1
5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Ma
r-9
5
Au
g-9
6
Jan
-98
Jun
-99
No
v-0
0
Ap
r-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Feb
-05
Jul-0
6
De
c-0
7
Ma
y-0
9
Oc
t-1
0
Ma
r-1
2
Au
g-1
3
Jan
-15
Jun
-16
October
2017,
0.7
October
2017,
9.55
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
-97
Jun
-98
No
v-9
9
Ap
r-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Feb
-04
Jul-0
5
De
c-0
6
Ma
y-0
8
Oc
t-0
9
Ma
r-1
1
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-14
Jun
-15
No
v-1
6
October
2017,
454.9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Au
g-8
2
Jan
-85
Jun
-87
No
v-8
9
Ap
r-9
2
Se
p-9
4
Feb
-97
Jul-9
9
De
c-0
1
Ma
y-0
4
Oc
t-0
6
Ma
r-0
9
Au
g-1
1
Jan
-14
Jun
-16
November
2017,
747
0
400
800
1200
1600
Jul-8
7
Au
g-8
9
Se
p-9
1
Oc
t-9
3
No
v-9
5
De
c-9
7
Jan
-00
Feb
-02
Ma
r-0
4
Ap
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
8
Jun
-10
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
6
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 14
III. Stock Market Indicators
Figure 1: TASI and Oil Figure 2: TASI Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x)
Source: Bloomberg Source: SAMA
Figure 3: Stock Market Turnover (SAR bn) Figure 4: Domestic Shares held by Domestic
Investment Funds (SAR bn)
Source: Tadawul, SAMA Source: SAMA
Figure 5: Share Ownership Status Figure 6: Total Assets of Investment funds
(SAR bn)
Source: SAMA Source: SAMA
63.6
November
2017,
7004.0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0
50
100
150
Jun
-97
De
c-9
8
Jun
-00
De
c-0
1
Jun
-03
De
c-0
4
Jun
-06
De
c-0
7
Jun
-09
De
c-1
0
Jun
-12
De
c-1
3
Jun
-15
De
c-1
6
Brent - USD/bl (LHS) TASI (RHS)
October
2017,
15.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Au
g-0
5
Jun
-06
Ap
r-0
7
Feb
-08
De
c-0
8
Oc
t-0
9
Au
g-1
0
Jun
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Feb
-13
De
c-1
3
Oc
t-1
4
Au
g-1
5
Jun
-16
Ap
r-1
7
October
2017,
66.6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Jan
-04
No
v-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Jul-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Jan
-09
No
v-0
9
Se
p-1
0
Jul-11
Ma
y-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jan
-14
Oc
t-1
4
Au
g-1
5
Jun
-16
Ap
r-1
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1
19
98
Q2
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q4
20
01
Q1
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q3
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
16
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Jul-2
01
5
Se
p-2
01
5
No
v-2
01
5
Jan
-201
6
Ma
r-2
01
6
Ma
y-2
016
Jul-2
01
6
Se
p-2
01
6
No
v-2
01
6
Jan
-201
7
Ma
r-2
01
7
Ma
y-2
017
Jul-2
01
7
Se
p-2
017
Individuals Institutions Govt. Related Entities GCC Investors Foreign Investors
87.8
0
50
100
150
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Q3 2017,
19.2
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 15
IV. Corporate earnings
Figure 1: TASI Revenue and YoY growth
(Quarterly)
Figure 2: TASI Revenue and YoY growth
(Annual)
Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Reuters Eikon
Figure 3: TASI EBITDA and YoY growth
(Quarterly)
Figure 4: TASI EBITDA and YoY growth
(Annual)
Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Reuters Eikon
Figure 5: TASI PAT and YoY growth
(Quarterly) Figure 6: TASI PAT and YoY growth (Annual)
Source: Reuters Eikon Source: Reuters Eikon
Figure 7: TASI EBITDA and PAT margin (%) -
Quarterly
Figure 8: TASI EBITDA and PAT margin (%) -
Annual
Q3 2017,
169.2 3.5%
(20) (10) - 10 20 30 40
050
100150200250
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
17
Rev (SAR bn)- LHS Rev (%yoy) - RHS
682.5
4.4
(10)
-
10
20
30
0
200
400
600
800
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Rev (SAR bn)- LHS Rev (%yoy) - RHS
Q3 2017
61.1 9.12
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
80
Q1
20
08
Q4 2
008
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
17
EBITDA (SAR bn) - LHS EBITDA (%yoy) - RHS
208.7
4.9
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
EBITDA (SAR bn) - LHS EBITDA (%yoy) - RHS
Q3 2017
32.9 18.75
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q1
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q2
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
17
Profit (SAR Bn) -LHS Profit (% yoy) - RHS
100.0
0.2
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
0
50
100
150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Profit (SAR Bn) -LHS Profit (% yoy) - RHS
Q3 2017,
36.1
19.44
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q1 2
012
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
17
Q3
20
17
EBITDA margin Net profit margin
35.5 31.5 31.9 30.9 29.1 29.9 29.5 30.4 30.6
11.7 15.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.9 17.2 15.3 14.6
0
10
20
30
40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin (%)
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 16
V. Tadawul Sector Earnings Performance
Earnings (SAR mn) Market
Cap (SAR
mn)
Q3 2017 Q3 2016 Q2 2017 % YoY % QoQ
Materials 544,281 8,702.4 7,908.4 6,077.1 10.0 43.2
Banks 456,991 11,374.1 9,951.1 11,324.0 14.3 0.4
Telecommunication Services 155,386 2,390.0 1,664.4 2,203.6 43.6 8.5
Real Estate 109,896 381.0 288.0 351.1 32.3 8.5
Utilities 103,876 5,300.6 4,434.4 2,269.4 19.5 133.6
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 91,005 1,585.0 952.1 1,011.0 66.5 56.8
Insurance 40,929 740.9 851.9 287.9 -13.0 157.3
Diversified Financials 33,989 261.5 134.3 227.2 94.7 15.1
Health Care 26,910 292.0 274.4 277.1 6.4 5.4
Retailing 26,689 295.9 348.3 275.6 -15.1 7.3
Energy 26,046 784.9 118.9 486.8 560.4 61.2
Consumer Services 13,311 285.8 341.6 243.8 -16.3 17.2
Transportation 12,918 232.9 355.7 314.2 -34.5 -25.9
Capital Goods 9,250 0.4 -33.9 28.2 -101.1 -98.7
Commercial Services 7,523 125.9 137.7 118.2 -8.6 6.5
Food & Staples Retailing 7,413 152.8 63.1 89.0 142.3 71.6
Media 5,388 17.9 -69.3 -16.0 -125.8 -212.1
Pharmaceuticals 3,479 7.9 6.8 46.6 17.3 -83.0
Consumer Durables &
Apparel 3,157 -53.7 -40.5 -6.6 32.5 711.3
Total 1,678,435 32,878 27,687 25,608 18.7 28.4
Source: Bloomberg, MCap and results as of December 5, 2017, covering companies over 93.7% of total market
capitalization
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 17
C. Saudi Arabia Key Statistics
Data 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Economic Output
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 669.5 734.0 744.3 753.8 653.2 639.6 659.7 699.6
Nominal GDP YoY (%) 27.1 9.6 1.4 1.3 -13.3 -2.1 3.1 6.1
Real GDP YoY (%) 10.0 5.4 2.7 3.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 1.1
Budget
Revenue (SAR bn) 1117.8 1247.4 1156.4 1044.4 615.9 528.0 692.0 820.6
Oil Revenue (SAR bn) 1034.4 1144.8 1035.0 913.3 446.4 329.0 480.0 552.5
Non-oil Revenue (SAR bn) 83.4 102.6 121.3 131.0 169.5 199.0 212.0 268.1
Expenditure (SAR bn) 826.7 873.3 976.0 1109.9 978.1 930.0 890.0 998.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (SAR bn) 291.1 374.1 180.3 -65.5 -362.2 -297.0 -198.0 -177.4
Surplus/(Deficit) (% GDP) 11.6 13.6 6.5 -2.3 -15.0 -11.0 -7.7 -6.4
Gross Public Debt (SAR bn) 135.5 83.8 60.1 44.3 142.3 316.5 412.5 529.5
Gross Public Debt (% GDP) 5.4 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.9 12.3 15.5 19.0
Oil statistics
Production (mbpd) 9.3 9.8 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 9.6 9.7
Exports (mb) 2634.6 2783.8 2763.3 2611.0 2614.5 2799.0 2557.9 2584.6
Domestic consumption (mb) 1321.4 1408.6 1423.8 1516.8 1586.5 1535.1 1583.2 1609.1
Trade & External sector
Exports (US$ bn) 364.7 388.4 375.9 342.4 203.6 183.6 239.8 242.2
Oil Exports (US$ bn) 317.6 337.5 321.9 284.6 152.9 136.2 136.3 147.3
Imports (US$ bn) 131.6 155.6 168.2 173.8 174.7 140.2 204.3 208.1
Trade surplus/(deficit) (US$ bn) 233.1 232.8 207.7 168.6 28.9 43.4 35.5 34.1
Current Account (US$ bn) 158.5 164.8 135.4 73.8 -56.7 -24.9 10.8 15.1
Current Account (% GDP) 23.7 22.4 18.2 9.8 -8.7 -3.9 1.5 2.0
SAMA forex reserves (US$ bn) 544.0 656.6 725.7 732.4 616.4 535.8 NA NA
Inflation (%) 3.7 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.2 3.5 1.0 1.7
Demographics
Population (mn) 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.4 31.7 32.7 33.3
Saudi unemployment rate
(% population) 12.4 12.1 11.7 11.7 11.5 12.3 12.7 12.5
Source: SAMA, General Authority of Statistics, Reuters, IMF, MEFIC Research
-
MACROECONOMIC MONTHLY
December 2017 18
Notes
-
Disclaimer
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whom it is addressed and may not be reproduced, further distributed to any other person or published,
in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This document is based on data sources that are publicly available and are thought to be reliable.
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its advisors, directors or employees can guarantee the accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of
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This document may contain certain statements, estimates, and projections with respect to the
anticipated future performance of securities, commodities or currencies suggested. Such statements,
estimates, and projections are based on information that we consider reliable and may reflect various
assumptions made concerning anticipated economic developments, which have not been
independently verified and may or may not prove correct. No representation or warranty is made as to
the accuracy of such statements, estimates, and projections or as to its fitness for the purpose intended
and it should not be relied upon as such.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and may
change without notice.
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