Decision Making Tools

for

Disaster Risk Management

May 3rd, 2011

Sahar Safaie

Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank

Data driven risk assessments and decision making tools

i.e. quantification of annual expected losses

CAPRA:

Multi-hazard risk

model platform, technical

assistance for investment

programs

PCRAFI:

Multi- hazard

Risk Assessment/

Risk Financing

Mozambique:

Flood Risk Management

Nepal:

Hazard Risk Management

Morocco:

Multi-hazard Risk Assessment

CCRIF:

Risk Financing

Eastern Caribbean

Risk Assessment

Total Projects: 40 Total Approved Budget: $ 21 M

Mekong Region:

Flood and Drought

Risk Mitigation

The necessary information and methodologies required

to make informed decisions to reduce the risk is not

available to the decision makers

If that information does exist it is too often unused or

underutilized

Risk Modeling

Set of Tools to Assist

Decision Making

Climate Change

Adaptation

Analysis of Financial

Exposure & Risk

Financing

Immediate damage assessment

Scenario analysis for

emergency preparedness

Cost Benefit analysis for

mitigation and prevention

investments

Infrastructure design

Territorial planning

Visualization of

hazard and risk

Risk Modeling

Set of Tools to Assist

Decision Making

Land Use Planning

Seismic hazard map Landslides hazard map Flood hazard map

Land Use Planning and Zoning

DAY

Scenario Analysis For Emergency Preparedness -

# of injured

NIGHT

Design Specifications For Infrastructure Design

Immediate Damage Estimation

Damage Distribution

Calculation

Surface Response

Spatial Distribution

Physical damage

Human losses

Bogotá Accelerograph Network (RAB)

Cost Benefit AnalysisRetrofitting of Critical Infrastructure

Schools and Administration

Bogota Disaster Vulnerability Reduction program

Schools Retrofitted 2004-2008 : 201Total Budget: $160 Million

• Sovereign Risk Financing

- Capital reserves- Catastrophe Bonds- etc.

• Insurance Premium Calculation

- Underwriting- Reinsurance- Reserve Calculations

Financial Analysis of Risk

Eastern Caribbean:

• St. Vincent and Grenadines

• St. Lucia

• Grenada

Using Risk Modeling to support the

projects at National and Sub-regional

level:

• Pilot Program for Climate Change

Resilience (PPCR)

• Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project

(DVRP)

World Bank in the Eastern Caribbean

Applications:

I. Education sector vulnerability reduction strategies

II. National disaster management strategies

III. Site specific (critical facility) risk assessment and

vulnerability reduction strategies

IV. Land use and physical planning based on multi hazard

risk assessment

V. Coastal zone management

World Bank in the Eastern Caribbean

Tools for Understanding Risk

Disaster Risk Assessments

Tools for decision-making

that address the clients

questions

CAPRA

Risk

in a Box

Dissemination of Lessons Learned

Role of Regional Institutions

Similar tools will be available in the region:

• CCRIF hazard maps

• UWI Risk Atlas (Jamaica, Barbados, Grenada)

• Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

Other donors/Development agencies are working on

other projects

A Regional Experience

Hazard Vulnerability functionsExposure

Risk Assessment: Data Intensive

Challenge: DATA Availability

Open Risk Data Initiative

Sharing data is a critical step in

reducing risk

Freedom for others to innovate

with this data

Work with countries to enable

them manage and share their data

We need to lead by example to

create a global culture of open

data

Peak Ground Acceleration

(cm/sec^2)

Open Risk Data Initiative

Regional

Institutions

UWI

DRRC

Seismic RC

Governments

Donors

Education

Capacity

Data

Management

Disaster Risk Management Practice-

Incorporating Risk Modeling

CDEMA

CCRIF

Communities

Thanks!

ssafaie@worldbank.org