Decision Support Briefing

Monday, February 25, 2019

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC

Issued:

Weather Ready Nation

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC2/25/2019 1:00 PM

• Widespread river flood event ongoing across southeast U.S.

• Moderate to Major flooding currently and/or forecast across

the Tombigbee River basin in northeast MS and northwest

AL and GA. Minor to Moderate flooding underway in North

and South Carolina as well as southern Virginia.

• Rain ending and clearing behind the cold front pushing

through the Southeast. Another round of rain expected later

in the week is not expected to bring rivers back to moderate

or major flood stage.

• Please check back often for changes to the forecast

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC

Here is the 48-hr rainfall forecast that was used in the official river forecasts sent this morning. A bit of a break over the next 48 hours as most of the heavier rain remains along the gulf coast with lighter amounts inland.

Even though this will be our last briefing, we will continue to coordinate with our partners on reservoir releases and inflow forecasts.

River forecasts using this input are shown in the following slide.

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC

A number of forecast points are already at minor to moderate flood stage from rainfall received the past few days. There are also a few points at or near major flood stage.

Please visit the SERFC home page or your local weather offices page for more details about forecasts.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFC

Here is the 7-day precipitation forecast ending 7 am Monday March 4th.

A cold front has passed through the area with short term clearing; however, another round of rainfall is expected later in the week.

This full 7-day rainfall forecast is not included in the official river forecasts sent this morning. However, this rainfall is taken into account in our Meteorological Model Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS).

https://www.weather.gov/erh/MMEFS

• SERFC is back at normal operations. The SERFC opens at 6 am EST and

closes at 10 pm EST. Please contact us if you have any questions or

concerns.

• The Decision Support Briefing will stop after today and resume when we

expect significant rises on the rivers due to new rainfall. This could be as

soon as the end of the week.

Please send all operational correspondence tosr-alr.rivers@noaa.gov or call the office directly.

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFCWeather Ready Nation

Latest Radar SERFC Quick Brief

Latest Forecast

RainfallMMEFS – Ensemble River Forecasts

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFCWeather Ready Nation

• These slides are intended for your use. Please feel free to share these with others. If you have anyquestions please email sr-alr.rivers@noaa.gov or contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office.

• Remember: SERFC briefings cover freshwater flooding. For information on coastal and tidal flooding,flash floods, winds, and severe weather risks, please contact your local Weather Forecast Office.

NWSSERFC @NWSSERFCWeather Ready Nation