decision support system development: engaging end users bill mahoney national center for atmospheric...
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Decision Support System Development:
Engaging End Users
Bill Mahoney
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)
Decision Support System Development:
Engaging End Users
Bill Mahoney
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)
OutlineOutline
NCAR/RAL backgroundNCAR/RAL background Why is this topic important?Why is this topic important? Defining a Decision Support System (DSS)Defining a Decision Support System (DSS) Assessing user needsAssessing user needs Trends and opportunitiesTrends and opportunities DSS example – Road WeatherDSS example – Road Weather
Research Applications Research Applications LaboratoryLaboratory
RALRALAbout 200 people, approximately half are About 200 people, approximately half are
atmospheric scientists, and half are engineersatmospheric scientists, and half are engineers MissionMission
Develop SolutionsDevelop Solutions: Work closely with customers to : Work closely with customers to develop applications designed to solve specific develop applications designed to solve specific problemsproblems
Technology TransferTechnology Transfer: Transfer knowledge and : Transfer knowledge and technology to US government agencies, the technology to US government agencies, the private sector, and foreign governmentsprivate sector, and foreign governments
Decision Support Decision Support SystemsSystems
a)a) An automated tool that makes An automated tool that makes decisions?decisions?
b)b) A semi-automated tool?A semi-automated tool?c)c) A handbook of recommended A handbook of recommended
practices?practices?d)d) Local newspaper or news program?Local newspaper or news program?e)e) Student assistant?Student assistant?
What is a decision support system?What is a decision support system?
Answer: All the above!Answer: All the above!
Why is this topic Why is this topic important?important?
The importance of connecting science to The importance of connecting science to society has risen in the last decade.society has risen in the last decade.
Most new research funding is targeted or Most new research funding is targeted or directed to support a societal need.directed to support a societal need.
Researchers have traditionally not been well Researchers have traditionally not been well connected to end users making it difficult for connected to end users making it difficult for society to take advantage of results.society to take advantage of results.
Learning how to engage end users is critical Learning how to engage end users is critical for advancing science and technology.for advancing science and technology.
What is being done?What is being done?
AMS Commission on the Climate and Weather AMS Commission on the Climate and Weather Enterprise – established in January 2005Enterprise – established in January 2005
Board On Enterprise Economic Development Board On Enterprise Economic Development established to bridge the gap between end users established to bridge the gap between end users and the weather and climate enterprise.and the weather and climate enterprise.
More companies and research organizations are More companies and research organizations are engaging end users.engaging end users.
AMS Commission AMS Commission OrganizationOrganization
AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise
Commissioner: George Frederick
Board on EnterprisePlanning
Chair: Terry Tarbell
Board on EnterpriseCommunication
Chair: Matt Parker
Board on Enterprise Economic Development
Chair: Bill Mahoney
CommissionSteering Committee
Commission Executive Committee
Board on Enterprise Economic Board on Enterprise Economic DevelopmentDevelopment
Board on Enterprise Economic Development
(BEED)
Surface Transportation Committee
Energy Committee
Economic Sector Committee - X
Economic Sector Committee - Y
Decision Support Decision Support SystemsSystems
Before one can consider developing or Before one can consider developing or implementing a DSS, some important implementing a DSS, some important questions need to be askedquestions need to be asked..
Decision Support Decision Support SystemsSystems
First Question:First Question:
1) What problem(s) are you trying to solve?1) What problem(s) are you trying to solve?
This must be asked several different ways This must be asked several different ways before a potential solution may emerge.before a potential solution may emerge.
Decision Support Decision Support SystemsSystems
2) What is the culture of your organization?2) What is the culture of your organization?
- Would a DSS be seen as threatening?- Would a DSS be seen as threatening?
- Does automation pose problems?- Does automation pose problems?
- Are general support tools viewed positively?- Are general support tools viewed positively?
3) What actual decisions could be supported?3) What actual decisions could be supported?
4) What job categories would benefit most?4) What job categories would benefit most?
Decision Support Decision Support SystemsSystems
5) What technical capabilities exist?5) What technical capabilities exist?
- Is there an in-house framework for a DSS?- Is there an in-house framework for a DSS?
> Network system (external & internal)> Network system (external & internal)
> Desktop computers> Desktop computers
> Remote communications (PDAs)> Remote communications (PDAs)
> Database of pertinent data> Database of pertinent data
Remote Systems
Decision Support Systems
6) What are the potential benefits?
- Safety
- Productivity
7) Who will champion the technology?
- Management vs. staff
- Technology push or pull?
Decision Support Systems
Application Categories:
1) Strategic Planning (condition prediction)2) Tactical Planning (alert functions)3) Operations Management (productivity)4) Incident Management (notification function)5) Risk Management6) Evaluation of “What if?” scenarios7) Training Tool (off line assessments)
DSS Development IssuesDSS Development Issues
• There are no off-the-shelf plug and play weather and climate capabilities that can fully address the needs of all user communities. No “one-size-fits-all” solutions.
• A “bottoms-up” rather than a “tops-down” approach should be used for DSS system development.
• Stakeholders need to determine the level of sophistication that is required for their specific DSS application.
NCAR/RAL Development NCAR/RAL Development ProcessProcess
Software Concept
IncorporateCustomerFeedback
IncorporateCustomerFeedback
Elicit CustomerFeedback
Elicit CustomerFeedback
Deliverthe
Version
Deliverthe
Version
DeliverFinal
Version
DeliverFinal
Version
PreliminaryRequirementsAnalysis
Design ofArchitecture and System Core
Develop aVersion
Evolutionary Delivery Evolutionary Delivery
This method is consideredthe best software practice from Rapid Development, Taming WildSoftware Schedules by Steve McConnell, Microsoft Press,1996.
Technical Risks & Challenges
For Weather Related DSSs
Weather Diagnoses & Weather Diagnoses & ForecastsForecasts
• The weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized.
• The weather research community has not traditionally been focused on the individual needs of specific user communities.
What is usually required? - High resolution information (misoscale = 40 m to 4 km)
- Rapid updates (minutes to hours)
- Both short term and long lead time (seasonal) forecasts
- Diverse set of input data
Weather Diagnoses & Weather Diagnoses & ForecastsForecasts
Users are now seeking:
- Probability metrics (or confidence)for key meteorological parameters
Example:
“What is the probability of the high temperature Reaching 95F between 4 and 6 pm tomorrow?”
“What is the probability of 3 inches of rain falling into my reservoir?”
Weather Diagnoses & Weather Diagnoses & ForecastsForecasts
Winter Road Maintenance DSS
MDSS User Needs MDSS User Needs Acquisition ProcessAcquisition Process
1)1) Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support System Requirements (STWDSR)System Requirements (STWDSR)
2)2) Identified large Stakeholder GroupIdentified large Stakeholder Group3)3) Discussed overall goals and objectives with large Discussed overall goals and objectives with large
stakeholder groupstakeholder group4)4) Created focus group from stakeholder groupCreated focus group from stakeholder group5)5) Assessed current practiceAssessed current practice6)6) Developed concept of operationsDeveloped concept of operations7)7) Developed prototype designDeveloped prototype design8)8) Developed prototype – first step that code was written!Developed prototype – first step that code was written!9)9) Demonstrated prototypeDemonstrated prototype10)10) IteratedIterated11)11) Kept stakeholders in the loop throughout processKept stakeholders in the loop throughout process
Current Capabilities and Current Capabilities and PracticePractice
The highway maintenance managers currently usenewspapers, Weather Channel, USA Today, NWS, and private meteorologists to make decisions.
Road weather information systems are not integrated with road management systems. The winter road maintenance decision process is generally reactive in nature.
On a plow route by plow route basis, users want:
• Treatment Type (chemical, plow, sand, etc.)• Treatment Amount (lbs per lane mile, etc.)• Treatment Location (plow routes)• Treatment Timing (start/end)
Expressed Stakeholder Expressed Stakeholder NeedsNeeds
2000-2005 State DOT MDSS Stakeholders
Includes the District of Columbia
35 State Participants
MDSS ProductsMDSS Products Weather parametersWeather parameters
Air temperatureAir temperature Relative humidityRelative humidity Wind speed and Wind speed and
directiondirection Precipitation type, Precipitation type,
rate, accumulationrate, accumulation Road ParametersRoad Parameters
Road temperatureRoad temperature Bridge temperatureBridge temperature Bridge frost potentialBridge frost potential Blowing snow potentialBlowing snow potential Road contamination & Road contamination &
chemical concentrationchemical concentration
Treatment Treatment RecommendationsRecommendations
Treatment typeTreatment type Treatment amountTreatment amount Treatment locationTreatment location
MDSS Display Application
Field DemonstrationsField Demonstrations2003 - 20052003 - 2005
Iowa
DOT
Verify results and be honest with stakeholders
Don’t come across as a typical salesperson!
There are numerous challenges associated withthe DSS development; however, scientificand engineering technologies are coming to fruitionthat are likely to produce significant benefits new user communities.
Engaging the end users early and often results in better products and user acceptance!
Summary