decision support systems as effective tools in water ... · of water level, discharge, ... •...
TRANSCRIPT
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Decision Support Systems as effective tools in water resources and flood management
DHI
Borge Storm
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Mitigating disasters:
FloodsDroughtsClimate changePollutionWatershed
degradation
Water Management Challenges
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Water Management Challenges
Securing water for:
People Food Energy EnvironmentProduction
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Why Decision Support Systems for water management?
• Provide an opportunity to embed IT and analytical tools more thoroughly in WR agencies’ workflow;
• Provide a technical platform for collaboration internally and externally;
• The DSS concept suites well with undertaking multiple WRM responsibilities by WR agencies
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Typical Technical Frameworks of DSSs
Data, Information & Knowledge
Assessment, Analysis and Operation
Interactive Communication
….based on a whole array of underlying tools
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Real-time
Planning
Core
Data analysis
Information & knowledgemanagement
Water Allocation CC adaptation
Forecastingand early warning
Operations
Multi Criteria Analysis
Retrieving & storing data
Optimization
Basin Plans
DHI DSS Solution Platform
Models
DatabasesBridges
Adapters
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
DSS Solution Platform
Time Series Management
WEB Publishing
Data Exchange
GIS
Modelling/scripting
User access
Workflows
Selected key components
Real-time
Planning
Core
Data analysis
Information & knowledgemanagement
Water Allocation CC adaptation
Forecastingand early warning
Operations
Multi Criteria Analysis
Retrieving & storing data
Optimization
Basin Plans
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Open modelling environment
• Assessments• Impact scenarios• Planning scenarios• Real-time forecasts• On-line operations
Planning oriented models
Process oriented models
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Customization
Data / information
Simulation / analysis
Communication / dialogue
For technical staff
For public access
Water authority’s needs Configurable interfaces for
technical, managerial and public levels
Implementation and tailored training programs
continued sustainable support framework
9
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Real time Forecasting
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Real-timerainfall and flow
Forecasted flood mapsMeteorological forecasts
forecasted
Time of forecast
observed
Forecasted hydrographs
Real-time Flood Forecasting
Modelling &Data assimilation
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR SAVA AND SOČA RIVERS, SLOVENIA
(confluense of Sava and Krka, September 2010)
Acknowledgement :
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Operational Forecasting System
Information management system
In-bank flood forecasting and warning system for Slovenian River basins
Status information available at hand
Early forecasts and warnings disseminated through web and SMS
Sava River Basin: 11,000 km2 in Slovenia
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
The Real-time DSS System• Integration with Online Databases
– Accessibilty of data– Telemetric data measured in the field– Weather forecast– Forecasting results
• Hydrological/Hydraulic models for Sava and Soca rivers
• A DSS Platform for ARSO for real time use
• Presentation of forecasts in an easy and userfrindly way
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Customised requirements• Quick access to forecast• Automatic / Offline Option• Graphical and Tabular view
of Water Level, Discharge, Profiles and Precipitation
• Detailed station information with online access to WEB camera
• Configuration Options• Direct access to MIKE11• Displays in Google Maps on
the web• Running alternative
scenarios
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Presentation of forecasts (on the web)
Forecasts and floodwarnings:
- Forecasts for the following 6 days
- Forecasting of Flow and Water Levels at 74 locations
- New forecastsevery hour - 24/7
- Forecast results from 5 different system setup
Quick access for specific users
Public Presentation
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Summary onFlood Forecasting System in Slovenia
• Now good understanding of flood modelling and forecasting;
• Consistent overview of the flood situation through measuring and modelling;
• Ability to act faster before and during floods;
• Improved communication and coordination.
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Flood Modelling(a few comments)
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Modelling & detailed topographic information for accurate flood mapping
Modelling for flood mapping
South Boulder Creek, Colorado, USA
FIRMFloodplain
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Flooding behavior during Tropical Storm Allison
Harris Gully Watershed, Houston Texas, United States
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Tropical Storm Allison - Validation
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Real-time River Operation
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Computer Aided River Management (CARM)
Acknowledgement:
Improving River Water Efficiency for the Murrumbidgee River, Australia
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Murrumbidgee River Basin
Area: 84,000km2
Length: 1600kmPop: 520,000
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Murrumbidgee Water Efficiency Project
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Irrigation
• Irrigation and environment are biggest water users
• Murrumbidgee and Coleambally use 50% and 20% of all irrigation water.
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Current Challenges for River Operations• Meeting water orders, while conserving available
dam water, taking into account:– Water orders may change– Catchment inflow contributions– River conditions (variable travel times)– Potential losses and gains– Available storages and levels in weirs
• Constraints:– Manual, daily operation relies on judgement
and experience– Limited ability to use real-time and forecast
data (flows, rainfall, demands)– “Known unknowns” – tributary inflows, river
seepage, evapotranspiration– Lack of real river hydraulics– Aging operations technology
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Current River Operations
• Manual operation• Water orders aggregated upstream to dams• Assumes water moves as parcels between gauges at fixed daily travel times• Requires extensive operator experience
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Computer Aided River Management
Knowledge of river behaviourMeasurements of river flows and diversionsForecast of inflows and demands
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
CARM Solution – Modelling Components
Catchment Inflows (MIKE 11 RR NAM)
River Losses/Gains(MIKE SHE)
River dynamics and storage(MIKE 11)
Irrigation water demand
(MIKE BASIN)
Real Time Data Assimilation(MIKE 11 DA)
Optimized releases
)
• River hydraulics and catchment hydrology simulation tools• Real time information used to its maximum potential (“self correcting”) • Forecast of catchment inflows, river losses and gains• Optimisation of dam and weir releases
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Tributary Inflow Models (inflows)
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Tributary Inflow Model Results
• Tarcutta Creek:• 1645km2
• 200m-1000m elev.
• R2=0.74. • Vol err=3%
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
River Hydraulic Model – MIKE 11
Includes Murrumbidgee and Yanco – Billabong Creek systemsTotal length modelled rivers: 3000 km
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Weirs and Gates• Remotely controlled gates implemented as discharge structures –
setpoints to be optimized• Manually controlled structures – Spillers, Hartwood, Balranald – included
as physical structures with gate levels pre-defined• 25 fixed crest weirs included in Yanco-Billabong Creek System
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Calibration Results – Murrumbidgee River
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Routing of Flow - Demonstration
37
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Dry Period: Release from Blowering
Historical release
Hydraulic solution with optimisation
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Dry Period: Release from Blowering
Reduction: 90GL (20%)
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Integration with Existing Systems
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
River Operations Workflow
Real time data feeds
Process Modelling and optimisation
Output results and analysis
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Web Dashboard – Hydrometric Display
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Summary on Computer Aided River Management
• Current operations are suboptimal– Difficult to achieve more efficient operations with the older technology in the
current system
• Modern technology – More precise hourly operations– Simulation and optimisation technology improves SWC’s river operations
• Precision water deliveries will– Reduce operational surplus and improve reliability of deliveries– More water available for targeted environmental releases– Ensure accurate delivery of environmental flows
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
DSS Implementation at organisations(a partnership between consultant and agency)
Based on the water authority’s needs; Customization to serve technical,
managerial & public levels; Acceptance & ownership; Training & capacity building; Creating sustainability.
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
So, where are we exactly on DSS?
From single objective to multi-objective water management using one integrated technology serving many needs;
Customised workflows for real time operations and off-line planning;
Extensible and Scalable System can be extended to provide new system capabilities
Modular and open architecture with International standards for model interoperability
Simulation tools are separate from the system architecture
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7th THAICID National Symposium, Bangkok
Thank you