decoding the evolutionary path of chinese foreign policy, 1949–2009- assessments and inferences

7/25/2019 Decoding the Evolutionary Path of Chinese Foreign Policy, 19492009- Assessments and Inferences

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Decoding the Evolutionary Path of Chinese Foreign

Policy, 19492009: Assessments and Inferences

Jae Ho Chung

Received: 10 June 2010 /Accepted: 10 December 2010 /Published online: 5 January 2011

# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Abstract Chinese foreign policy has made a grand transition during the post-Mao

reform era. Chinese foreign policy of the 21st century has become much more open

and pragmatic in its relations with the outside world, more extensive in its reach and

coverage, highly diversified in its functions and partners, more committed to

international norms than before, and much more sophisticated in its dealing with the

international community. Yet, the precise balance between the changes and

continuities is still quite difficult to gauge. Furthermore, despite crucial visible

changes, concerns and worries - even some fears - are discernible with regard to the

rise of China. In the last 60 years, Beijing has sought hard to sustain consistencies

(shizhong ruyi) in its foreign policy. Perhaps, that is the best clue the world has in

inferring the future trajectory of Chinese foreign policy.

Keywords Anti-hegemonism . Chinese foreign policy. Chinese military . Great-

power diplomacy . Multilateralism . Siege mentality . Soft power. US-China relations

With the ascent of China - almost to the verge of G-2 the world is closely watchingevery move that Beijing makes. As China is fast filling in the vacuum created by the

implosion of the Soviet Union almost 20 years ago, Chinese foreign policy has

already begun to generate global impact in an increasing number of issue-areas

including global financial and monetary policy, energy, and climate change.

Daunting as it may seem, it is both timely and worthwhile to examine and assess

the 60 years of evolution in Chinese foreign policy since the founding of the

Peoples Republic in 1949.1

East Asia (2011) 28:175190

DOI 10.1007/s12140-010-9132-x

1By evolution, it is meant to refer to adaptive and path-dependent processes based on both learning and

historical coincidence. Chinese foreign policy is thus considered here to have followed an evolutionary

path rather than that of sudden ruptures.

J. H. Chung (*)Department of International Relations, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

e-mail: [email protected]


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Foreign policy is composed of both words and deeds and there are always some

disparities between the two, thereby making it generally difficult for scholars and

analysts to derive useful inferences and implications. This study seeks to focus more

upon deeds (i.e., specific outcomes that can be empirically substantiated) in

identifying and assessing the evolutionary path of Chinese foreign policy sincebehavior is a more important and meaningful predictor of Beijings external relations

than rhetoric.

This article consists of three sections. The first surveys the evolutionary path of

Chinese foreign policy for the last 60 years, which has largely revolved around the

memories of national humiliation and aspirations for a great-power status. The

second section provides assessments of the key changes in Chinese foreign policy in

both temporal (i.e., Maoist versus reform periods) and issue-area terms. The third

section, on the basis of the former two, derives some inferences as to the future

trajectory of Chinese foreign policy.

Sixty Years of Chinese Foreign Policy: Tracing the Evolutionary Path

The 60 years (19492009) of Chinas foreign policy can be divided into two periods:

(1) that of exclusive strategies (19491982); and (2) that of cumulative

strategies (19822009). As to the former, the exclusive strategies refer to the

fact that the core policy of the 1950s, allying with the Soviet Union to resist the

United States

(yibiandao), was totally replaced by that of the 1960s, namelyopposing both the Soviet revisionism and American imperialism(fandui dixiufan).

During the 1970s, again, a new strategy of aligning with the United States to

counter the Soviet threat (yitiaoxian) replaced the policy of the 1960s. In sum, the

core strategies of China during these three decades were mutually exclusive in nature

[90,94].

During this earlier period, Chinese foreign policy had revolved around the two

pillars of ideology and national security. While the ideological component of

Chinese foreign policy paled considerably during the 1970s, it is still difficult to

refute that Beijings external relations had been highly ideological and dogmatic

during the three decades of these exclusive strategies. More important than ideology

was, of course, Chinas preoccupation with sovereignty and national security.

Beijings separation with Moscow in the late 1950s had much to do with the

formers pursuit of autonomy from the latters directing. Chinas secluded

diplomacy (i.e., against both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R.) during the tumultuous

1960s, which many realists have found it rather difficult to explain, ended only when

the Chinese perceived threat of the Soviets far surpassed anything else ([43], p. 65).

Chinas clandestine efforts for rapprochement with the United States and the

surprise visits to China by Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon in the early 1970s

were very much indicative of the extent to which Beijing became flexible as far as

national security was concerned [5, 88]. These dramatic episodes subsequently

paved way for the U.S. lifting of trade and investment bans on China, for Beijings

extensive educational exchanges with the West, and for Premier Zhou Enlais grand

scheme offour modernizations.While the long hiatus between these visits and the

Sino-American normalization in 1979 were caused by Taipeis effective lobbying, as

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prescriptions ([7], pp. 74-80, [96], ch. 4, [56]). That is, in order to safeguard

sovereignty in the world of anarchy, the aggrandizement of power was deemed to

precede everything else. Preoccupations with sovereignty nearly to the verge ofsiege

mentality have kept the Chinese from accepting interferences and intervention from

the outside. Hence, the constant search for independence and autonomy.2

China is also well known for its hypersensitivity to territorial sovereignty. Cases

of Chinas involvement in large-scale armed conflicts suggest that the intensity of its

military commitment was much higher with territory-related disputes than otherwise

([42], pp. 11-12). While Chinas stance on territorial disputes gradually became more

flexible and milder during the reform era as the situations in the South China Sea

well demonstrate it is not all that clear if China is only putting aside (gezhi)

those sensitive issues for the time being ([25], pp. 133-6).Preoccupations with independence, autonomy, sovereignty and territorial integrity

are but one side of a coin. The other side, of course, is the longing for regaining a

great-power status that the Middle Kingdom had enjoyed for a long time ([98], ch.

4). A couple of interesting clues can be noted in this regard. China has long

advocated the multi-polarization and democratization of international relations

(shijie duojihua he guoji guanxi minzhuhua) as a way of avoiding the faults of

unilateralism and hegemonism ([112], pp. 2940). These announcements notwith-

standing, as Deng Xiaoping himself commented, [I]rrespective of its number (four

or five), China cannot but be a pole of the multi-polar system that there isHoweveryou figure, China is one of the poles (siji ye hao wuji ye hao suowei duoji

zhongguo suan yiji zenmoyang suan ye suan yiji) ([19], pp. 3545). In a nutshell,

China does aspire to regain a great-power status.

According to a 2006 survey by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS),

88.9 percent of the 7,061 respondents agreed that they were proud of the

international status that China was currently occupying ([51], p. 61). Yet, in terms

of official policy line, China has been highly cautious in admitting or showing off

this newly attained status. For instance, Beijing continues to use the indicator of per

capita income (on a par with Zambia) in efforts to deny a great-power status and

2 Such mentality was vividly demonstrated on the eve of the Tiananmen tragedy in 1989. In the face of

student demonstrators and proponents of democracy, Chinese leaders went paranoid with the thought that

the crisis was being manipulated by outside (presumably Western) forces that wished to topple China once

again. See [62], pp. 356-357. For Chinas similar concern with U.S. intentions in Central Asia, see [106],

pp. 334-335.

Fig. 1 Principal components of

Chinese foreign policy

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instead keeps highlighting its developing-nation status. Additionally, despite the

long-standing invitation, China refrained from joining the G-8 officially. Further-

more, while Beijing generally welcomes the new G-20 structure as a better reflection

of the changing realities and a more appropriate forum for contemporary

international relations, it abhors the designation of G-2 and even terms it as amutant of the China threat thesis ([11], pp. 109118, [67,107]).

Behind such calculated modestyare aspirations for a great-power status lurking.

And for China, the short cut to attaining this goal has always been the cultivation of

power initially hard and increasingly soft and smart in recent years [20]. Most

importantly, China seeks to maintain its independence and autonomy in making

foreign and security policies. According to a study, the concept of pole (ji) refers

to the autonomous decision-making authority in addition to the possession of strong

military and economic powers. In contrast, acenter of capability(liliang zhongxin)

is often used to refer to powerful nations without full autonomy in foreign andsecurity policy-making ([33], pp. 27790, [95], pp. 2426).

Assessing the Changes in the Reform Era: A Balance Sheet

Remarkable - and somewhat unexpected - successes of the reform and opening

necessitate a close look at the substantive changes that have taken place in Chinas

foreign relations during the last three decades. Several distinct yet inter-related

characteristics jointly illustrate the principal changes and their notableconsequences in Chinas foreign relations. First, above all, the emergence of

pragmatism i.e., the demise of Communist ideology and the rise of national

interests rationally defined can be said to have been the foremost variable in

the new equation. Traditional realist concerns, such as national sovereignty,

territorial integrity and military modernization, are still very important but,

relative to the Maoist era, economic development, interdependence, and

sustainable growth have also become crucial goals of the Chinese government

([76,97], ch. 4). Behind the rise of pragmatic diplomacy lay the emancipation of

mind (sixiang jiefang), through which the making and implementation of foreign

policy became increasingly more practical than rhetorical and dogmatic. As in

other domains of Chinese politics and society, the importance of this aspect cannot

be overemphasized ([18], pp. 89, [99], pp. 113).

Second, pragmatism and de-ideologization led to Beijings unstinted effort to

maximize economic interactions and exchanges with the outside world. The

centrality of this shift away from the Maoist autarchy is best demonstrated by the

fact that China is now the largest trading nation in the world and the total amount of

foreign investment committed in China, as of 2007, reached US$ 955 billion. The

share of foreign trade in Chinas total GNP rose from a mere 9.8 percent in 1978 to

60 percent in 2008 ([54,111], pp. 5, 723). That is to say, three-fifths of all goods and

services produced in China were related to foreign trade. Earlier successes reinforced

the leaderships confidence in the opening policy over time, thereby further

constricting the room for the return of ideological dogmatism.

Third, the aforementioned two factors in turn led to a significantly widened range

of foreign relations for Beijing. If the core partners of Chinas foreign relations had

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largely been confined to the socialist bloc and a handful of European nations in

Maoist China, the post-Mao strategy of omni-directional opening (quanfangwei

kaifang) introduced a whole new dimension to Chinese diplomacy. The number of

countries with which China normalized relations increased from 99 in 1978 to 172 in

2008, an increase of 73 nations that included such nations as the United States, SaudiArabia, South Korea, South Africa, Singapore, Israel and so on ([110], p. 368).

Fourth, the rise of non-ideological and pragmatic diplomacy also meant that

reciprocity (huhui) became the core tenet of Chinas foreign relations. Chinas

relations with the Third World during the last three decades are best indicative of this

crucial change. It is widely known that Maoist China had provided enormous aid for

African nations, including the financial support for the construction of the Tanzania-

Zambian railway. The reform era witnessed a constant reduction of aid going to the

Third World, however. The share of the Third World aid in government budgets

dropped from 7.2 percent in 1973 to 0.5 percent in 1983 ([36,52], p. 244). In 1999,57 percent of Chinas foreign trade was conducted with Asian nations but none of

Chinas top ten trade partners were Third World nations.

As is widely noted in recent years, a great reversal is currently being made:

Chinas policy of providing active support for the Third World is making a visible

comeback. Enormous aid-in-grant packages are being offered to African and Latin

American nations in efforts to make contributions on a par with Beijings fast-

growing economic capabilities.3 Whether it is for soft or smart power, Chinas

current goal is certainly very different from the Maoist period: it is no longer purely

ideological. China wants natural resources and energy, as well as political support,from these nations and, therefore, it is highly interest-based. Beijing no longer

actively supports anti-government rebellions there although they may often have to

condone them grudgingly ([4,22,49,60]).

Fifth, in spite of the remarkable aggrandizement of both economic and military

power during the last 30 years, Chinas involvement in military conflicts and explicit

show of force have been largely decreasing compared to the Maoist era when

Beijing had sincerely acted on the tenet that the best deterrence is belligerence

([42], p. 27, [92], p. 202). The war with Vietnam in 1979 was perhaps the only post-

Mao military engagement on a large scale while others were either unilateral show of

force (i.e., missile launches over the Taiwan Strait in 1995) or small-scale scuffles

(the 2001 EP-3 incident, the 2009 Impeccable incident, and so on). China continues

to discount the threat it faces from the outside (although it has since 2001 underlined

the growing level of internal threat) and emphasizes the defensive nature of its

military strategy and modernization ([10], pp. 85-97, [93], pp. 48-58). Of course,

assessments may vary since these changes can be interpreted either as an outcome of

Chinas positive learning over the years and gradual conversion to international

norms or, alternatively, as Beijings well-calculated tactical move to placate the

China threat thesis until its ascent becomes complete.

With regard to Chinas nuclear strategy, debates go unabated whether its goal still

remains to be minimum deterrence or it is making a gradual transition to that of

limited deterrence ([41, 81], pp. 2327). In fact, we are getting some confusing

3 China has provided over 2,000 aid projects for 110 nations, and reduced or cancelled the debts worth 20

billion yuan for developing nations. See [50].

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signals on this crucial issue. Officially, China still appears to stick to the principle of

minimum deterrence as it emphasizes no first use of nuclear weapons (xianzhi

buyong) and no use or threat to non-nuclear powers ([109], p. 51). The total

number of warheads in Chinas nuclear stockpile also decreased from 435 in 1993 to

around 200 in 2006. Yet, the overall share of short- and medium-range ballisticmissiles has been increasing in recent years, compared to that of long-range and

intercontinental ballistic ones. Additionally, the technological progress in developing

multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) and decoy warheads, as well as

ground-based mid-air defense, is also notable [63]. The foreign policy implications

of these changes in Chinas military and nuclear strategy perhaps need a longer time-

frame to assess ([74], p. 86).

Sixth, Chinas enmeshment with international organizations has been increasing

rapidly during the reform era. While this does not necessarily mean that Beijing s

emphasis on bilateral relations has waned (discussed in detail below), Chinasgrowing awareness that international institutions were not merely puppets of the

United States drove Beijing to get actively and, often, proactively involved in many

of these. In fact, overall, the level of Chinas participation in international institutions

has been much higher than previously expected ([40], p. 14). Chinas accession to

the United Nations Development Plan (UNDP: 1978), International Monetary Fund

(IMF: 1980), World Bank (1980), World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO:

1980), Asian Development Bank (ADB: 1986), United Nations Environment Plan

(UNEP: 1992), International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights

(1997), and World Trade Organization (WTO: 2001) is most notable ([48], p. 226,[66,68,103], pp. 73133).

Chinas involvement in international institutions was not confined to economic

and commercial domains. While Beijing had generally been passive and reserved, if

not critical, toward joining international regimes on arms control and disarmament,

such a stance changed considerably since 1992. Most importantly, China joined the

three most crucial international covenants in the military-security arena: the nuclear

non-proliferation treaty (NPT: 1992), the comprehensive test ban treaty (CTBT:

1996), and the chemical weapons convention (CWC: 1997). Additionally, China also

joined the Zangger Committee (1998), the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG: 2004), the

Outer Space Treaty (1983), the Antarctic Treaty (1983), the Seabed Arms Control

Treaty (1991), and so on. Compared to the Maoist era when China agreed on only 34

international covenants, the figure skyrocketed to 185 during 1979-1999. All these

signify Beijings drastically changed stance on viewing, if not complying with,

international and multilateral norms on non-proliferation and arms control ([28,48],

p. 232, [58], pp. 7880, [70], p. 69).

Seventh, Chinas position on multilateral institutions and diplomacy has also

changed significantly during the last three decades of reform. During the Maoist era,

China belonged only to a few multilateral institutions composed mainly of socialist

states. In the reform period, however, Beijing has adopted two key measures in this

regard. On one hand, China took initiatives in establishing new multilateral

institutions, of which the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the China-

Africa Forum, and the Six-Party Talks are the principal examples ([12,16], pp. 156

60, [80]). On the other, China has also been keen to joining a wide range of

multilateral institutions and frameworks initiated by other states, most notably

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APEC, ASEAN, ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN plus three, the East Asian

Summit, and so on.

It should be noted that one principal goal of China in its effort toward

international organizations and multilateral diplomacy has been to increase its say

and capacity to set international agendas ([24], pp. 2645, [64], pp. 47683). Onekey indicator as such is the ratio of Chinas abstention in the United Nations Security

Councils voting on a wide range of policy issues. As Table 1well demonstrates, in

tandem with its increased say, the rate of Chinas abstention has consistently

decreased since the early 1990s.

Eighth, as hinted earlier, Beijings new stance on international organizations and

multilateral diplomacy does not mean correspondingly reduced attention to bilateral

dynamics. Given that regional identity has been particularly weak, if not absent, in

East Asia compared to Europe, bilateral relations still occupy a very crucial position

in Chinese external strategies. For instance, the White Book published annually bythe Policy Research Bureau of the Chinese Foreign Ministry devotes a lions share to

detailed descriptions of Beijings dyadic relations with 172 nations.4

Chinas sustained attention to bilateral relations can also be inferred from the

ever-growing complex list ofpartnershiparrangements that Beijing has designated

for a wide range of dyadic relations with many countries. While decoding this

complicated hierarchy of different types of partnerships is almost impossible for

outsiders, China may have certain logic of its own in using the concept to substitute

for the alliance that it has been strongly opposed to ([105], p. 503).

Ninth, the soft-power dimension of Chinese foreign policy needs to be discussed.Among others, three key aspects can be mentioned in this regard. For one, China has

devoted huge state resources to establishing certain positive images of the state

(guojia xingxiang) in recent years [89]. The task involves close monitoring of

overseas media reports on China and publishing immediate rebuttals to negative

reports. It also entails integrating Chinas foreign policy into the new four principles

of civilized, democratic, harmonious and developmental diplomacy. Furthermore,

China has sought to enhance its international image by boosting efforts for

international rescue and disaster relief. While these efforts are still in an incipient

stage, the proactive role of the state in sculpting these images is indisputable ([3,86],

pp. 37).

Another measure entails the diffusion of Chinese cultural values and virtues

overseas. The most notable example is the establishment of state-sponsored

Confucius Institutes. How successful this effort has been in raising Chinas soft

power overseas, however, remains to be empirically assessed [100]. Related are

Beijings efforts to publish a wide range of white papers (baipishu) to explain

Chinas positions on such sensitive issue-areas as human rights, women rights,

Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, religious freedom, space development, intellectual property

rights, family planning, and so on ([89], p. 75).

Yet another measure in Chinese soft-power diplomacy is more interesting with

much broader implications. Foreign perceptions of China have predominantly been

4 For instance,Zhongguo waijiao(2008) devotes 36.5% of the space (154 pages out of the total of 422) to

the discussions of bilateral relations whereas the comparable figure on the discussion of Chinas

multilateral diplomacy was 12.3% (52 pages).

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such that it is an authoritarian state with high levels of repression and secrecy. China,

however, has been fighting against such negative images on its own front. During

the reform era, China joined several key international covenants on human rights,including the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against

Women (ratified in 1980), the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (1982),

the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial

Discrimination (1982), the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of

the Crime of Genocide (1983), the International Convention on the Suppression

and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid (1983), the Convention Against

Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment

(1988), the Convention Concerning Equal Remuneration for Men and Women

Workers for Work of Equal Value (1990), the Convention on the Rights of theChild (1991), and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural

Rights (2001) ([20], p. 85).

China still is of the position that human rights are not necessarily universally

applicable virtues but contingent upon the specific conditions of each state

([23], pp. 914, [87], pp. 2429). And that is precisely why China has yet to ratify

the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights that it already signed in 1998. It should

be admitted that, as the degree of domestic political liberalization has steadily

increased over the years, Chinas attention to human rights has also expanded. Yet,

to be on a par with expectations of the international community, there still remains

much room for further improvement.

Tenth, whereas China has been largely consistent in restraining the projection of

military power overseas during the reform era, Beijings views and policies toward

the UN-endorsed peace-keeping operations have been changing rather considerably.

In the 1980s, a shift was made from maintaining the position of non-financial-

support, non-voting and non-participation to adopting that of financial support,

voting and participation. During the 1990s, another shift was made to providing

personnel support and taking active part in peace-keeping operations overseas

regarding non-traditional security threats like genocide and piracy [8].

In sum, Chinese foreign policy of the 21st century has become much more openand pragmatic in its relations with the outside world, more extensive in its reach and

coverage, highly diversified in its functions and partners, more committed to

international norms than before, and much more sophisticated in its dealing with the

international community. Yet, the precise balance between the changes and

continuities is still quite difficult to gauge. Even the question of whether such

Table 1 Rate of Chinas abstention in UN voting on human rights issues

Period Frequency Annual Average % in P5

1991-96 29 5 64

1997-2006 23 2 38

2000-2006 10 1.6 27

Source: adapted from Dong-ryul Lee, Jungguk eui UN woegyo(Chinas United Nations Diplomacy) in

Taeho Kim et al., Jungguk woegyo yongu eui saeroun yongyok (New Areas of Research on Chinese

Foreign Policy) (Seoul: Nanam, 2008), p. 152

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changes are only for short- to mid-term tactical purposes remains to be explored

from a macro-historical perspective.

Chinas Great-Power Diplomacy: Inferential Trajectories

The foregoing discussions have outlined many positive signs and desirable

progresses that were readily discernible from Chinas foreign relations of the last

three decades. These crucial changes notwithstanding, concerns and worries and

even some fears with regard to the rise of China still linger. Although a wide range

of variables still remain to condition or constrain the elongated process of its ascent,

the rise of China - i.e., Chinas enhanced capabilities and influence and related

synergies - is probably not a matter of whether but one of when, given the consistent

trend of the last three decades ([6,17]). Obviously, as in the case of two sides of acoin, both hopes and concerns co-exist with regard to the future trajectory of Chinese

foreign policy.

Many pundits attribute the future of Chinas foreign policy to the evolving

dynamics of US-China relations. A widely subscribed view as to the impact of

Chinas rise forewarns the inevitability of Sino-American competition or confron-

tation. This apocalyptic view entails realist logic that the rise of China, regardless of

its intentions and preferences, is bound to reduce the room for Americas strategic

maneuvering, thereby precipitating a clash of Titans ([2,14,26,57], ch. 10, [98],

p. 2). Many beg to differ, however. Some argue that Chinas rise may lead to apeaceful power transition although uncertainties loom large in the long haul ([32],

pp. 111, [71, 114]). Others suggest that Chinas diplomacy is far more subtle and

sophisticated so that Beijing will see to it that the external environments remain

sufficiently favorable to its peaceful rise, thereby avoiding explicit conflicts with

the United States by all means ([21,27,29], chs. 56, [59]). Still others contend that

Chinas rise, even in the long run, will not suffice to replace the role of America in

Asia ([73,82]).

This is certainly one area where most uncertainties are found. On the other hand,

it seems that US-China relations are perhaps overemphasized in delineating the

future trajectory of Beijings foreign policy [83]. More importantly, whichever

perspective is chosen, in tandem with the ascent of China, the dominant logic

guiding the economic and security affairs in the world has been bifurcating.

Particularly in the Asia-Pacific, regardless of Beijings intentions, the region as a

whole is facing an intricate dilemma of having to balance economic benefits from

cooperating with China against security gains from allying with the United States

([35,47]).

Debates are intense as to how the world and its sub-regions are positioning

themselves vis--vis a rising China. These discussions more often resemble the

analogy of a glass that is only half full. That is to say, given high uncertainties

related to the future of China and of Sino-American relations, a majority of

secondary and tertiary states seek to maintain an opportunistic hedging stance

([44,75,84]). Generally speaking, such concerns and worries are closely related to

the regional states insufficient confidence in that the aforementioned changes in

Chinas foreign policy goals and behavior are long-term and strategic and, therefore,

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unlikely to change easily. In a nutshell, fears do exist and may even increase over

time as to what if China should revert to the past practices of dominance and

dogmatism once it has risen to the apex ([1,45]. [107], ch. 11) .

Such worries are particularly prominent in the countries that share borders with

China. Three reasons account for this. First, generally speaking, distance matters: thesecurity dilemma is naturally more intense for countries that border on each other.

Second, available records show that the Peoples Republics projection of military

force was largely more proactive toward neighboring states (such as Vietnam and

India) than toward extra-regional states (such as the United States and Europe) ([72],

pp. 1819). Given that, despite Chinas pronounced rhetoric of friendly neighbor

policy, concerns and worries have multiplied over time in the Asia-Pacific region.

Third, deep-seated memories of Chinese dominance and, more importantly, the

newly growing historical controversies between China and some regional states are

adding fuel to these generic concerns and worries about the rise of China.5

Viewedin this light, Chinas opening and all-round diplomacy have been relatively

successful in enriching and socializing with her neighbors (fulin and mulin,

respectively) but not necessarily in reassuring them (anlin) about the security

implications of its ascent ([14], pp. 6619).

It may perhaps become unavoidable, down the road, that Chinas ever-elevated

status will make it increasingly more difficult for the regional states to deal with

Beijing on an equal footing, the long-standing rhetoric of the five principles

notwithstanding. It is particularly so when an increasingly large number of Chinese

scholars and analysts believe that the outside world only has very limited influenceover Chinas developmental path ([104], p. 25). It seems that the main audience of

Chinas anti-hegemonic discourse (bu chengba bu dangtou) should not be other

great powers (e.g., the U.S. and Russia) but smaller nations, particularly those

situated on the periphery of China.

If the power transition should become a real possibility in the future, what kind of

a leading power will Chinachoose to become? Some argue that, once it reaches the

top of the hierarchy, China with more experiences of having been at the apex than

the U.S. will become a more subtle but sophisticated empire whose rule is likely to

last longer. Indeed, and fortunately, quite a few Chinese scholars have engaged in

serious pondering about this crucial question. The wealthier and stronger China

becomes, the larger the perceptual disparity between China and her regional

neighbors may get. Will China then continue to be amodest giant,refraining from

being showy and audacious? Will Beijing continue to stick to the long-standing

principle of remaining affinitive despite differences (he er butong) ([61, 65, 79,

85,102])?

On a more behavioral level, will China continue to hold on to the principle ofno

messing around if not messed first(ren bu fan wo wo bu fan ren)? Once China sits

at the top, will the operational definition offan change? The whole world is holding

its breath and watching closely when and in what shape the crouching dragon will

5 While David Kang (in his China Rising) suggests that fears of Chinas rise are lacking in East Asia, I

would argue that it is not the lack of fears per se but rather the absence of explicit display of fears that the

regional states possess. For South Koreas such concerns and worries due to the Koguryo controversy

since 2004, see [15].

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come out at the end of its elongated process of ascent. In the last 60 years, Beijing

has sought hard to maintain consistencies (shizhong ruyi) in conducting its

external relations. Perhaps that is the best clue the world may have in inferring the

future trajectories of Chinese foreign policy.

Acknowledgments The research for this article was supported by the John D. and Katherine T.

MacArthur Foundations Asia Security Initiative Grant to Seoul National University (2009-12). The author

acknowledges useful comments from Gordon Cheung, Shiping Tang, and two anonymous reviewers.

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decoding the evolutionary path of chinese foreign policy, 1949–2009- assessments and inferences

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