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1 February 27, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2017 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. This report is part of our new series, The New Beauty Consumer, which looks at various aspects of beauty retailing and consumption. 1) Gen Z is the first generation to use social media in their formative years, and it is pressuring teens to look good. According to a survey by the American Psychological Association, nearly one-third of US teen girls feel bad when comparing themselves with others they see on social media, and other studies have found links between social media usage and low self-esteem. 2) We think these kinds of pressures will drive up spending on beauty products and services and fitness services. US teens are already growing their spending on beauty; the category’s share of spending among upper-income female teens grew to its highest level ever in fall 2016. 3) When shopping for beauty products, young consumers turn to social media, and especially video content, for advice. The volume of beauty content on YouTube rocketed by 200% between 2015 and 2016, and female consumers ages 13–24 make up fully 47% of the audience for these videos. 4) Gen Z’s oldest members are on the cusp of adulthood, and we expect this generation’s demands to be a factor in future beauty industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Large, established multibrand companies are likely to acquire beauty brands that resonate with Gen Zers as the generation’s spending power accelerates. Deep Dive: Gen Z and Beauty—the Social Media Symbiosis Deborah Weinswig Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016

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1

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Thisreportispartofournewseries,TheNewBeautyConsumer,whichlooksatvariousaspectsofbeautyretailingandconsumption.

1) GenZisthefirstgenerationtousesocialmediaintheirformativeyears,anditispressuringteenstolookgood.AccordingtoasurveybytheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,nearlyone-thirdofUSteengirlsfeelbadwhencomparingthemselveswithotherstheyseeonsocialmedia,andotherstudieshavefoundlinksbetweensocialmediausageandlowself-esteem.

2) Wethinkthesekindsofpressureswilldriveupspendingonbeautyproductsandservicesandfitnessservices.USteensarealreadygrowingtheirspendingonbeauty;thecategory’sshareofspendingamongupper-incomefemaleteensgrewtoitshighestleveleverinfall2016.

3) Whenshoppingforbeautyproducts,youngconsumersturntosocialmedia,andespeciallyvideocontent,foradvice.ThevolumeofbeautycontentonYouTuberocketedby200%between2015and2016,andfemaleconsumersages13–24makeupfully47%oftheaudienceforthesevideos.

4) GenZ’soldestmembersareonthecuspofadulthood,andweexpectthisgeneration’sdemandstobeafactorinfuturebeautyindustrymergersandacquisitions(M&A).Large,establishedmultibrandcompaniesarelikelytoacquirebeautybrandsthatresonatewithGenZersasthegeneration’sspendingpoweraccelerates.

Deep Dive: Gen Z and

Beauty—the Social Media

Symbiosis

Deborah Weinswig

Managing Director,

Fung Global Retail & Technology

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

2

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TableofContentsExecutiveSummary..................................................................................................................................................3

Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................5

DefiningGenZ......................................................................................................................................................5

NotJustSocial...Visual..............................................................................................................................................6

SocialMediaFuelsImageConcerns..........................................................................................................................7

USTeensAreGrowingTheirBeautySpending.........................................................................................................8

SocialMediaDrivesBeautyandBeautyDrivesSocialMedia.................................................................................10

USFemaleTeensSpentanEstimated$2.3BilliononBeautyCategoriesLastYear...............................................12

GenZ’sFavoriteBrands..........................................................................................................................................13

GenZLikelytoImpactBeautyM&A.......................................................................................................................16

KeyTakeways…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….17

3

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ExecutiveSummaryWedefinethemembersofGenerationZasthosebornafter2000,whichmeansthegroupisboththenextgenerationofconsumersandonewhosemembershavenotallbeenbornyet.

WehaveidentifiedthreemainthemeswithintheGenZbeautymarket:

Imagepressuresfromsocialmediaarefuelingbeautydemand.GenZersarethefirstgenerationtobothdocumenttheiryearsgrowinguponsocialmediawebsitesandbeexposedonlinetoaspirationalimagesofcelebritiesandself-madesocialmediastars.Consequently,nearlyone-thirdofUSteengirlsfeelbadwhencomparingthemselveswithotherstheyseeonsocialmedia,accordingtoasurveybytheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation.Andacademicresearchstudieshavefoundlinksbetweensocialmediausageandlowself-esteem.Wethinkthesepressuresarelikelytofuelteenspendingonbeautyproducts.

BeautyspendingisagrowingpriorityforUSteengirls.AccordingtoaPiperJaffraysurvey,upper-incomefemaleteens’shareofspendingonthebeautycategorygrewtoitshighestleveleverinthefallof2016.Reflectingthistrend,usageoffacialcosmeticsishighamonggirlsages12–14:accordingtoMinteldata,roughlyhalfofthisagegroupusesmascara,foundationorconcealer.Reflectingtheimpactofsocialmedia,lastyear,brandownersEstéeLauderandL’Oréalattributedstrongdemandforcosmeticstotheselfieculture.

GenZturnstosocialmediaforbeautyadvice.Notonlydoessocialmediaheightenpressuresonyoungpeopleregardingpersonalappearance,butalsoservesasasourceofbeautyinformationandexpertiseforthem.Manyyoungconsumersturntosocialmedia,andespeciallyvideocontent,whenshoppingforbeautyproducts.Mintelfoundthatthree-quartersofUSfemaleteenshadlookedtoYouTubefortutorialsonnewstylesornewproducts.Moreover,theamountofbeautycontentonYouTubesurgedby200%between2015and2016,accordingtoanalyticsfirmPixability,andthefirmfoundthatfemaleconsumersages13–24makeupfully47%oftheaudienceforthesevideos.BrandsseekingtoengagewithGenZmustofferengaging,authenticcontentonvisual-drivensocialmediasites.

Figure1.TheSocialMedia-BeautySymbiosis

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

TeensTurntoSocialMediaforBeautyAdvice

SocialMediaAddstoImagePressures

Lastyear,EstéeLauderandL’Oréalattributedstrongdemandforcosmeticstotheselfieculture.

4

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Source:Shutterstock

WeestimatethatUSfemaleteensages12–17spentapproximately$2.3billiononthecorebeautycategoriesofskincare,cosmeticsandfragrancesin2016.IntheUS,MAC,CoverGirl,MaybellineandUrbanDecayarethefavoredbrandsoffemaleteens,accordingtoPiperJaffray,whileUlta,Sephora,WalmartandTargetaretheirfavoredretailers.

Inthecomingyears,weexpectthedemandsofGenZconsumerstobeadriverofbeautyindustryM&A.LegacymultibrandgiantsarelikelytoseektostrengthentheirpositionwithGenZasthedemographic’sspendingpoweraccelerates.WebelieveGenZersplaceheightenedimportanceonthefollowingwhenshoppingforbeautyproducts,andthatthesepreferenceswillimpactbeautyM&Ainfutureyears:

• Formulatedwithpureandnaturalingredients.

• Celebrity-brandedand/orformulatedby“star”skincareandhaircareexperts.

• Madebycompaniesthatrecognizeanddemonstratesocialconsciousness,whichmayincludeafocusondiversityandequalityandcruelty-freeprocessesandgoods.

Weincludeatableofrecent,relevantbeautyindustryM&Aactivitytoconcludethereport.

5

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

IntroductionBornafter2000,GenZwillformthenextgenerationofconsumers.Itsoldestmembersareonthecuspofadulthood,andsoarebeginningtodrawtheattentionofmass-marketretailers.InAugust2016,wepublisheda20-pageoverviewofGenZanditspreferencesandbehaviorsasaconsumergroup:readerscanfindthatreportatbit.ly/FungGenZ

Inthisreport,weturntothebeautycategoryinmoredetailanddiscusshowsocialmediainparticularfuelsbeautydemandamongteens.Wealsolookathow,inturn,theseconsumerslooktosocialmediaforadviceandrecommendationswhenshoppingforbeautyproducts.ThefollowingsectionsalsoexplorewhichbrandsandretailersarepreferredbyUSteensandthelikelihoodthatGenZdemandswillimpactfutureM&Ainthebeautyindustry.

Thisreportispartofournewseries,TheNewBeautyConsumer,whichlooksatvariousaspectsofbeautyretailingandconsumption.SomeofthedatacitedinthisreportareglobalornotspecifictotheUS,butourfocusisontheAmericanmarket.

DefiningGenZGenZisthefastest-growingsegmentofthepopulation.WedefineGenZasthosebornafter2000,andmaintainthatnotallofitsmembershavebeenbornyet.ButthereisnoconsensusonthedefinitionofGenZ:somecommentatorssuggestthatthisgenerationincludesonlythosebornbetweenthelate1990sandthemid-2000s.Wethinkcategorizingthisgenerationasincludingthoseborninaspanofapproximately20yearsmakesitmorecomparabletopreviousgenerationsandthatdefiningitasincludingonlythosebornwithina10-yearrange,assomeimply,isnotuseful.Thetablebelowillustrateshowwedefinethegenerations.

Figure2.Generations,byBirth-YearRange

Generation Born AgeRangein2017

GenZ 2001–2020 0–16

Millennial 1980–2000 17–37

GenX 1960–1979 38–57

BabyBoomer 1946–1959 58–71

Senior/Pre-Boomer Before1946 72+

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

In2015,GenZmadeup19%oftheUSpopulation,weestimate,basedonUSCensusBureaudata.By2020,itssharewillbearound25%.

SomeofthedatacitedinthisreportarebasedonsurveysofconsumergroupsthatincludedsomerespondentswhowereolderthanGenZers,accordingtoourdefinition,atthetimethesurveyswereconducted.Forinstance,somesurveyedgroupsincludedyoungermillennials.Wecitethesedataanywaybecausewethinkhavingdefinitivecutoffpointsbetweengenerationsisbydefinitionarbitrary,andthatsuchdataoftenhavevalueinpointingtomoregeneraltrendsanddifferencesbetweenbroadagegroups.

GenZ’soldestmembersareonthecuspofadulthood,andsoarebeginningtodrawtheattentionofmass-marketretailers.

In2015,GenZmadeup19%oftheUSpopulation,weestimate,basedonUSCensusBureaudata.By2020,itssharewillbearound25%.

6

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

NotJustSocial...VisualItisworthrememberingthatGenZisthefirstgenerationtogrowupalongside—andsobeshapedby—fast-changingconsumerdevicesandservices.FromSkypetosmartphonestoInstagramtoAmazonPrime,majoreverydaytechproductsandtech-enabledserviceshaveallemergedduringGenZers’lifetime.

Inaddition,theseconsumersareenthusiasticallydocumentingtheirlivesonline,fromtheirsocialandpoliticalviewstotheirphotographs.Themassiveadoptionofsmartphoneshascoincidedwiththeemergenceofsocialmedia,andoneresultofthisisthatteenscannowexpecttobephotographedanytime,anywhere—andtohavethoseimagessharedonline.

Reflectingthisemphasisonvisualcontent,youngconsumersnotonlyavidlyusesocialmedia,butalsoflocktovisual-dominatedsocialmediachannelssuchasSnapchatandInstagram.Inresponse,othermajorsocialmediasitessuchasFacebookareracingtokeepupwiththeseimage-heavyrivalsbyattemptingtoincreasetheamountofvideocontentavailableontheirplatforms.

Figure3.US:ProportionofUSTeensandYoungAdultsUsingSocialMediaSites,2016(%)

Base:2,002USrespondentsages12–24surveyedinJanuary–February2016Source:EdisonResearch/TritonDigital

4

9

10

21

24

26

27

29

36

66

68

72

Tinder

LinkedIn

WhatsApp

GooglePlus

Tumblr

Vine

Pinterest

Kik

Twiser

Instagram

Facebook

Snapchat

Visual-Heavy

Youngconsumersflocktovisual-dominatedsocialmediachannelssuchasSnapchatandInstagram.

7

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Weperceivesocialmediaascausingteenstofocusmoreattentionontheirpersonalappearance,andwethinkthatislikelytoboostdemandinthebeautyproductmarket,aswellasadjacentmarketsthatarefocusedonpersonalappearance,suchbeautyservicesandthefitnessindustry.

SocialMediaFuelsImageConcerns

“Everytime[teens]switchontheirphones,they’regettingmessagesaboutpartiestheyhaven’tbeeninvitedto,orthey’reseeingphotosoftheirfriendsdoingthings....Itabsolutelypermeatestheirsenseofself-worth.”

–EmilyCherry,HeadofParticipationatUKchildren’scharityNSPCC

Socialmediauseis“significantlyassociated”withincreasedincidenceofdepression,accordingtoa2016studyofyoungadultsbytheUniversityofPittsburghSchoolofMedicine.A2015reportfromCanada’sCentreforAddictionandMentalHealthsimilarlyfoundmeaningfulassociationsbetweentimespentonsocialmediaandnegativementalhealthindicators:heavysocialmediausersweremorelikelytoreportlowself-esteem,forinstance.

So,itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatnegativesentimentsassociatedwithpersonalimageandbody-consciousnessappeartobewidespreadamongGenZers.AccordingtoasurveybytheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,nearlyone-thirdofUSteengirlsfeelbadwhencomparingthemselveswithotherstheyseeonsocialmedia,asillustratedinthegraphbelow.Itisworthnotingthatthissurveywasconductedin2013,whenimage-focusedsocialmediachannelssuchasInstagramandSnapchatwerestillintheirinfancy.

Figure4.US:PercentageofTeensWhoAgreedwithStatementonTheirAppearance,2013

Base:1,018USteens,ages13–17Source:AmericanPsychologicalAssociation

13%

30%

55%

68%

Boys

Girls

Feelbadwhencomparingthemselvestoothersonsocialmedia:

Boys

Girls

Someaspectoftheirappearanceisasomewhatorverysignificantsourceof

stress:

AccordingtoasurveybytheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,nearlyone-thirdofUSteengirlsfeelbadwhencomparingthemselveswithotherstheyseeonsocialmedia.

8

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Source:Shutterstock

Asthedataabovesuggest,thisisnotanissueconfinedtogirls.A2016surveysponsoredbyadvertisingthinktankCredosintheUKfoundthatmorethanhalfofyoungmalerespondentsrankedsocialmediaasasourceofpressuretolookgood.Socialmediarankedhigherinimportanceoverallthaneitheradvertisingorcelebritiesdidasaperceivedsourceofpressureamongrespondents.

Figure5.UK:PercentageofMaleRespondentsAges8–18WhoNamedFactorasOneoftheBiggestSourcesofPressuretoLookGood,20

Base:1,005UKmales,ages8–18Source:Credos

USTeensAreGrowingTheirBeautySpendingSo,youngpeopleappeartofeelgreaterpressurethaneverbeforetospendontheirpersonalappearance.WenotethattheimpactthispressurehasonGenZers’consumerbehaviormaychangeasthegenerationgrowsolder,but,fornow,beautyspendingisagrowingpriority,particularlyforUSteengirls.

49%

53%

57%

68%

Celebriues

Adverusing

SocialMedia

Friends

SpendingonbeautyisagrowingpriorityforUSteengirls.

InaUKsurvey,morethanhalfofyoungmalerespondentsrankedsocialmediaasasourceofpressuretolookgood.

9

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Upper-incomefemaleteens—ademographicseenasaleadingindicator—grewtheirshareofspendingonthebeautycategorytoitshighestleveleverinthefallof2016,accordingtoasurveybyPiperJaffray,aninvestmentbank.Some11%ofthisgroup’stotalspendingwasonthebeautycategory.

Figure6.US:Upper-IncomeFemaleTeens’ShareofSpendingDirectedTowardtheBeautyCategory(%)

Source:PiperJaffray

Reflectingthisspending,usageoffacialcosmeticsishighamonggirlsages12–14;accordingtoMintel,roughlyhalfofthisagegroupusesmascara,foundationorconcealer.

Figure7.US:PercentageofFemaleTeensAges12–14WhoUseSelectedCosmetics,2016

Source:Mintel

9.89.3

10.511.3

Spring2015 Fall2015 Spring2016 Fall2016

"Highestshareintenyears"

"Highestshareinthesurvey'shistory"

54%

45%

30%

10%

Mascara Foundauon/Concealer

Blush/Bronzer HairColoring

Usageoffacialcosmeticsishighamonggirlsages12–14;accordingtoMintel,roughlyhalfofthisagegroupusesmascara,foundationorconcealer.

10

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

AccordingtoMintel,beautyandgroomingproductusagebymaleteensisalsohigh,withfourin10maleteensages12–17usingfragranceorlip-careproducts.

Figure8.US:PercentageofMaleTeensAges12–17WhoUseSelectedBeauty/GroomingProducts,2016

Source:Mintel

Beautybrandsarereportingstrengtheneddemandasaresultofsocialmedia.In2016,bothEstéeLauderandL’Oréalsaidtheselfieculturehadcontributedtostronggrowthintheircosmeticssales.Andtheparticulartrendforgymselfiesisfuelingyoungconsumers’demandforgym-friendlymakeupfrombrandssuchasTarteCosmetics,BirchboxandCultBeauty,accordingtoTheTimes.

SocialMediaDrivesBeautyandBeautyDrivesSocialMediaVisual-focusedsocialmediaandthebeautymarketexistinakindofsymbiosis:notonlydoessocialmediaheightenpressuresonyoungconsumersregardingtheirpersonalappearance,butalsoservesasasourceofinformationandexpertiseforthemwhentheyareshoppingforbeautyproducts.Manyyoungconsumersturntosocialmedia,andespeciallyvideocontent,forinformationwhendecidingwhatbeautyitemstobuy.

Figure9.US:PercentageofFemaleTeensAges12–17WhoUseSocialMediaforSelectedBeauty-RelatedPurposes,2016

Source:Mintel

29%

41%

42%

44%

Hair-StylingProducts

Lip-CareProducts

Perfume/Cologne

Facial-CleansingProducts

45%

56%

65%

HavePostedAboutBrandsonSocialMedia

FollowBeauty/PersonalCareBrandsonSocialMedia

UseYouTubetoLearnHowtoCreateaNewStyleorUseaNewProduct

Manyyoungconsumersturntosocialmedia,andespeciallyvideocontent,whenshoppingforbeautyproducts.

11

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

BeautycontenthasballoonedonYouTubeandcontinuestogrowapace.AccordingtoPixability,thenumberofbeauty-relatedvideoshostedonYouTubemorethantripled,to5.3million,inthe16monthsendedJune2016.

Figure10.NumberofBeauty-RelatedVideosonYouTube(Mil.)

Source:Pixability

GenZersaretheleadingconsumersofthiscontent.AccordingtoPixability,femaleviewersages13–24makeupfully47%oftheYouTubebeautyaudience.ThiskindofdemandhasmadestarsofvloggerssuchasZoella,whosetargetaudienceisyoungfemaleteens.PixabilitysaysthatZoellaleadsbynumberofbeautysubscribers,with10.9millionsigneduptofollowheronYouTube.

Source:YouTube

1.8

5.3

March2015 June2016

+200%

12

February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

OnYouTube,beautyvideosgarnerfarmoreviewsthandovideosinrivallifestylecategories,Pixabilitysays.AsofJune2016,beautyvideosonthesitehadbeenviewed125billiontimes.Meanwhile,onFacebook,thetop200beautybrandshadnotchedsome850millionvideoviewsbyJune2016.

Figure11.YouTube:TotalViewsofLifestyleCategoryVideosasofJune2016(Bil.)

Source:Pixability

USFemaleTeensSpentanEstimated$2.3BilliononBeautyCategoriesLastYearWeestimatethatAmericanfemalesages12–17spentapproximately$2.3billiononthecorebeautycategoriesofskincare,cosmeticsandfragrancesin2016.ThisestimateisforspendingbyteensthemselvesandexcludesspendingbyyoungerGenZers.Thetablebelowshowshowourestimatebreaksdownbysubcategory.

Figure12.US:EstimatedSpendingonCoreBeautyCategoriesbyFemaleConsumersAges12–17,2016(USDBil.)

TotalSpend

TotalCoreBeauty $2.3

Skincare $1.1

Cosmetics $0.8

Fragrances $0.4

Source:PiperJaffray/USCensusBureau/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Thefollowingdatapointsinformedandcontextualizedourestimates:

• PiperJaffray’sfall2016USteensurveyfoundthatupper-incomefemaleteensspentanaverageof$395acrossskincare,cosmeticsandfragrancesperyear.Basedontheratioofupper-incomehouseholdincometoaverage-incomehouseholdincomeinthePiperJaffraysurvey,weestimatethataverage-incomefemaleteens’

125

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Beauty Fitness Food Travel Fashion

OnYouTube,beautyvideoshadnotched125billionviewsasofJune2016.

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Source:Shutterstock

annualspendingwasabout$192acrossskincare,cosmeticsandfragrancesin2016.

• Populationestimatesofaround12millionfemaleteensages12–17intheUSleadtoaballparkspendingfigureof$2.3billionacrossthesethreebeautycategories.

• Ourestimateequatesto3%ofthetotalUSbeautyandpersonalcaremarketsizeasrecordedbyEuromonitorInternationalfor2016(andwenotethatEuromonitor’stotalincludestoiletriesandpersonalcarecategoriesthatextendbeyondskincare,cosmeticsandfragrances).Ourestimatesuggeststhatfemaleteensaccountedforaround7%oftheUSskincaremarketrecordedbyEuromonitorand6%ofthecosmeticsmarket.

• USfamiliesspent$24billionon“miscellaneous”categories—whichincludebeautyproductsandservices—forthoseages12–17in2015,weestimate,basedonUSDepartmentofAgriculturesurveydata.Ourestimatedfigureof$2.3billionforcorebeautycategoriesequatestojustunder10%ofthismiscellaneousspendingtotal.

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

GenZ’sFavoriteBrandsBeautybrandsthatareaffordable,aspirationalor,ideally,bothresonatewithteens.TheaspirationalMACbrandtoppedthemostrecentPiperJaffraysurveyofteens’preferredbrands.However,budget-pricedCoverGirlandmass-marketMaybellinewerethenexttwomost-popularbrands,thesurveyfound.

Figure13.US:PreferredCosmeticsBrandsAmongAverage-IncomeFemaleTeens(%)

Base:10,000respondentswithanaverageageof16Excludesone“namewithheld”brandineachperiodSource:PiperJaffray

Turningtoretailers,thesamePiperJaffraysurveyfoundthatUltaandSephoraenjoystrongpositionsamongfemaleteens.TheprominenceofvalueretailerssuchasTargetandWalmartremindusthatyoungconsumerstendtohavestrictlylimitedbudgets.

Figure14.US:PreferredBeautyDestinationsAmongAverage-IncomeFemaleTeens(%)

Base:10,000respondentswithanaverageageof16Source:PiperJaffray

AspirationalbrandMACtoppedarecentsurveyofteens’preferredbrands.

15

9 97

5 54 4 4

19

11 11 11

35

0 0

4

MAC CoverGirl Maybelline UrbanDecay TooFaced Sephora NYX Anastasia BareEscentuals

Fall2016 Spring2016

2927

1210

3 3 2 2 1 1

2724

139

4 3 3 2 1 1

Ulta Sephora Walmart Target MAC Walgreens CVS Macy's Bath&BodyWorks

SallyBeauty

Fall2016 Spring2016

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

InEurope,weperceivemass-marketretailerssuchasKIKOMilano,SephoraandLushaswellpositionedtoresonatewithGenZers.LikeMAC,eachoftheseretailersisverticallyintegrated,beingaretaileraswellasabrand,andeachcombinesaqualitybrandexperiencewithsomeaspirationalqualitiesandrelativeaffordability.

ThebeautybrandslistedbelowaremorenicheornascentbrandsthatwererankedasthecoolestbyTeenVoguefor2016.Wenotethefollowingbrand-positioningthemeswithinthislist,whichwethinkgivesomeindicationofthepreferencesofyoungerconsumers:

• Skincarebasedonnaturalingredients.

• Haircaredesignedbycelebrityorcutting-edgestylists.

• Positivemessaging,suchas“forwomen,bywomen.”

• Celebritynames,suchasKylieJenner.

Figure15.TeenVogue’sCoolestBeautyBrandsof2016

Brand Positioning

OUAI PremiumhaircarefromcelebritystylistJenAtkin

Milk MakeupfromcreativeproductionhubMilkStudios

TheEstéeEdit The“babysister”ofEstéeLauder

PatMcGrathLabs Eponymouscolorcosmeticsrangefromcelebritymakeupartist

KylieCosmetics ThemakeuplinefromrealityTVandsocialmediacelebrityKylieJenner

Lano Australianskincarebrandfocusedonnaturallanolin

SainteMuse Skincare“forwomen,bywomen”

SaturdaySkin Playfulbranding,rootedinscience

IGK “Hairstylingforthemoderngeneration”frominnovativestylists

Babe Plant-based,naturalandorganicingredients;madeinAustralia

TanLuxe Premium-positionedself-tanner

Kopari Coconutoilskincareproducts

Source:TeenVogue/companyreports

Alsoin2016,GoldmanSachsandTeenVoguerankedwhatteensandyoungwomenages13–29saidweretheirfavoritebrands.WhiletheagerangeofthissurveyextendssignificantlybeyondourGenZdefinitiontoincludepartofthemillennialdemographic,wethinkthelistingshownbelowfurthersuggeststhestrengthofMAC,SephoraandUrbanDecayamongyoungconsumers.

InEurope,weperceivemass-marketretailerssuchasKIKOMilano,SephoraandLushaswellpositionedtoresonatewithGenZers.

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure16.TeenVogue-GoldmanSachsLoveList:“ItGirls”Top10,2016

Rank Brand Sector

1 MAC Beauty

2 Nike Fashion

3 FreePeople Fashion

4 Sephora Beauty

5 PINK(Victoria’sSecret) Fashion

6 UrbanDecay Beauty

7 Victoria’sSecret Fashion

8 Forever21 Fashion

9 MakeUpForEver Beauty

10 H&M Fashion

Basedonasurveyoftrend-focused,fashion-conscious“itgirls”Source:GoldmanSachs/TeenVogue/BusinessInsider

GenZLikelytoImpactBeautyM&AInthecomingyears,weexpectthedemandsofGenZconsumerstoinfluencebeautyindustryM&Aactivity.LegacymultibrandgiantssuchasL’Oréal,P&GandUnileverarelikelytoseektostrengthentheirpositionwithGenZconsumersasthedemographic’sspendingpoweraccelerates.

Basedonattitudinalsurveydataandotherindicatorssuchasthebrandrankingsshownabove,webelievethefollowingproductthemesareofheightenedimportancetoGenZ,andsowilldrivebeautyM&Ainthefuture:

• Productsformulatedwithpureandnaturalingredients.

• Celebrity-brandedproductsandproductsformulatedby“star”skincareandhaircareexperts.

• Productsmadebycompaniesrecognizeanddemonstratesocialconsciousness,whichmayincludeafocusondiversityandequalityandcruelty-freeprocessesandgoods.

Asthetablebelowshows,wearealreadyseeingacquisitionsofbrandsthatarefocusedonthesethemes.

WeexpectthedemandsofGenZconsumerswillinfluencebeautyindustryM&Aactivityinthefuture.

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TheoldestGenZerswillturn16thisyear,andsoareonthecuspofbecomingfullyfledgedadultshoppers.

Figure17.SelectedRecentBeautyM&AActivity

Year Buyer CompanyAcquired Positioning TransactionStatus(USDMil.)

2016 L’Oréal ITCosmetics Premiumcolorcosmetics $1,200

2016 EstéeLauder TooFaced Playful/cruelty-free $1,450

2016 EstéeLauder BeccaCosmetics Diversity N/A

2016 Unilever LivingProof Scientific N/A

2016 Unilever DollarShaveClub Subscription $1,000

2016 CounterBrands NUDEBrands Pure/natural N/A

2016 JakksPacific C’estMoi Kids’beauty N/A

2016 Johnson&Johnson VogueInternational Sustainable/natural $3,300

2016 OrigamiOw Willagirl Kids’beauty N/A

2015 Unilever Dermalogica Professional N/A

2015 Unilever KateSomervilleSkincare Natural/prestige N/A

2015 Unilever REN Purity N/A

2015 Unilever Murad Clinical N/A

2015 Coty CoverGirl Youth/mass N/A

2015 Coty Bourjois Mass N/A

2014 L’Oréal Carol’sDaughter Natural/diversity N/A

2014 EstéeLauder Glamglow Celebrity/edgy N/A

Source:Bloomberg/companyreports

KeyTakeaways• SomeretailersandbrandsalreadycountGenZersascustomers—but

thegroupcomprisesthecustomersoftomorrowforallretailersandbrands.Theoldestpeopleinthisdemographicwillturn16thisyear,andsoareonthecuspofbecomingfullyfledgedadultshoppers.

• SocialmediaimpactsGenZers’spending,particularlyinthebeautycategory.Inturn,GenZersoftenturntosocialmediaforinformationandexpertisewhenshoppingforbeautyitems.Thereappearstobegreaterpressurethaneverbeforeonyoungpeopletospendontheirpersonalappearance—althoughitispossiblethatthesepressureswilllessenasthisgenerationgetsolder.

• Inthenearterm,brandsseekingtoengagewithGenZmustbepresentinthespacesthattheseconsumersfrequent—visual-drivensocialmediasites—andtheymustofferengaging,authenticcontent.

• Lookingfurtherahead,weexpectthedemandsofthisgenerationtobeafactorinfuturebeautyindustryM&AactivityaslegacyplayersseektoappealtoGenZbybuyingupbeautybrandsthatalignwiththegeneration’spreferences.

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February27,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

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