defining probability
DESCRIPTION
Defining Probability. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. Definition. Element Event. Definition. Universe of possibilities Venn diagram. What is probability?. All possible events . What is probability?. All possible events . Event A. What is probability?. Probability of A = . What is probability?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.Defining Probability
ElementEvent
Definition
Universe of possibilitiesVenn diagram
Definition
What is probability?All possible
events
What is probability?All possible
events
Event A
What is probability?
Probability of A =
What is probability?
What is probability?
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
More Observations
Less Error
Range of Probability
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Odds
Probability as Opinion
Probability as Opinion
Axiomatic Definition of Probability
1. At least one event must happen
Axiomatic Definition of Probability
2. Probability is greater than or equal to zero
Axiomatic Definition of Probability
3. P(complement) is one minus P(Event)
Axiomatic Definition of Probability
4. P(two mutually exclusive events) is sum of each
Axiomatic Definition of Probability
Opinions Like Probabilities
On a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is for sure, how certain are you that medication errors will occur in next visit?
Probability As Strength of Belief
Context for Study of Belief
Probability is the count of event divided by count of all possible events
Take Home Lesson
In examining wrong side surgeries in our hospital, what are the elements, events and the universe of possibilities? Draw the Venn Diagram
Do One