deliberative decision-making on issues in a changing
TRANSCRIPT
Deliberative Decision-Making on Issues in a Changing Climate
Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference 2018
M. Lee Bundrick Jr. MPA/MES Concurrent Degree Student, College of Charleston
Coastal Resilience Research Assistant, S.C. Sea Grant Consortium
Exploratory GrantProject made possible by the project team, staff at S.C.
Sea Grant Consortium, and Funding support provided by
the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under award
number 200007353.
Growth in Coastal Communities
Coastal South Carolina Metro Area Population Monthly Growth from 2010-2016 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017)
Coastal communities are experiencing growing populations and urban sprawl that outpace inland communities threefold (Sandifer et al., 2004; Neumann
et al. 2015)
Rapid changes impact the coastal ecosystem, which poses as a threat to human health and well-being to communities. (Gomez et al. 2013)
Charleston - N. Charleston Metro Area +1340 /month
Myrtle Beach Metro Area +1007 /month
Hilton Head, Beaufort, Bluffton +341 /month
Slade, Charleston Post Courier (May 24, 2018)
Decision-making(Irvin and Stansbury, 2004)
Need to address issues affecting coastal communities through policy
Consider the impact of policies on residents in the community
Collaborative communication and stakeholder engagement utilized to create holistic, integrated policies
Perception of risks in the general public vary and are often polarizing (Flynn et al. 1994; Kahan et al., 2012)
Difficult to determine public value when creating policy
Alex Braud (February 2018)
Deliberative Discussion
Facilitated discussions between residents,
community officials, and natural resource
managers (Slovic, 1987) following an informative
session by an expert (Fishkin and Luskin, 2005)
Deliberation is a catalyst for finding common
ground on topics with opposing views (Bratman, 2014)
Informed decision-making and development of
integrative policies (Gastil et al., 2008; Luskin et al., 2014)
Image source: alexsb.org
Stacey Weinstock (October 2017)
Sunset at Toler’s Cove, Sullivan’s Island (May 2017)
Grant Objectives
● Investigate an approach to educate
and engage coastal residents and
community leaders
● Empower stakeholders to prioritize
coastal management issues and
become more active in local natural
resource management decisions
● Identify insights about coastal
management priorities and decision-
making that they can share with
decision-makers
Our Coastal Future Forum
October 20-21, 2017
● Two-day forum in North Charleston
● Informative sessions from 5 expert
presenters
● 2 small-group deliberation sessions
● 80 participants, 8 break-out groups
Topics Covered
● Changing Coastal Climate
● Biodiversity
● Living Marine Resources
● Environmental Health
● Ocean Mineral and Energy
Resources
S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Product no.:
SCSGC-H-17-06 Briefing Book for October
2017 Forum
Recruitment Flyer
Our Coastal Future Forum
May 2018
● 3 Afternoon Small-Group Forums
● Informative sessions from an expert
presenter at each
● 41 participants, 4 small-groups
Topics Covered
● Climate Change (All)
● Ocean Mineral and Energy
Resources (Myrtle Beach)
● Biodiversity and Living Marine
Resources (Charleston)
● Environmental Health (Beaufort)
S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Product no.:
SCSGC-H-18-05 Briefing Book for Charleston
Small-Group Forum (May 8, 2018)
Recruitment Flyer
Environmental Health
Environmental Health Risk Factors Sandifer et al. 2004, Gomez et al. 2013
● Biodiversity
● Contaminants
● Development
Washout at sunset, Folly Beach (June 2018)
Project Objectives
Learn about coastal residents’ perception of environmental health risk factors
Effect of deliberative discussion on the perception of risks
Investigate the cultural significance of environmental health and its risk factors
Jonathan Green, “Oyster Pickers” (1990)
Research Methods
Survey Data
● S.C. coastal county surveys (n=311)
● Pre- and post-forum surveys (n=97)
● R statistical package (RStudio Team, 2015)
Discussion Transcripts
● Recorded small-group discussions
● Transcripts
● Codebook
● Ongoing...
Code and graph from R Studio (2015)
Survey Questions Environmental Health Factors
● 9 questions
● Scale of 0-10 (no concern to extremely concerned)
● Scale of 1-7 (strongly oppose to strongly agree)
How concerned are you about…
● infections: An increase in infections resistant to antibiotics
● development: The impacts of development on the land and water quality of coastal areas
● biodiversity: Loss of biodiversity Storm on Folly Beach County Park (August 27, 2017)
Survey Data – Residents and RiskCoastal
Resident(n=311)
Pre-Forum
Participant(n=97)
Post-Forum
Participant (n=97)
Biodiversity 7.51 8.48 *** 8.64
Habitat (1-7) 5.72 6.58 *** 6.41 *
Contam 8.54 9.00 * 9.23 *
Ocean 7.48 8.21 ** 8.28
Infections 8.05 8.02 8.89 ***
Waterways 8.31 8.89 ** 8.89
Development 8.47 9.27 *** 9.39
Population 8.07 8.18 8.13
Drainage (1-7) 5.84 5.82 5.94
Figure 2 Results from the analysis of coastal resident survey, pre-forum survey, and post-
forum survey from August 2017 to June 2018. Coastal and pre-forum survey responses
were analyzed using an independent samples t-test with p-values expressed. Questions
regarding environmental concern were asked on a scale of 1 (no concern) to 10 (extreme
concern), unless noted otherwise. Pre-forum and post-forum surveys were analyzed using
a paired t-test. All values are expressed as means with p-values noting statistically
significant values from means to the left: * < 0.05, ** < 0.01, *** < 0.005
Transcripts
Analyze transcripts using several
methods (Cope, 2009)
Grounded Theory
Codebook categories (Strauss, 1987)
● Conditions
● Interactions with others
● Strategies and tactics
● Consequences
Myrtle Beach Small-Group Forum (May 2018)
Categories & CodesConditions Development
Population
Economics
Infrastructure
Biodiversity
Organism
Ecosystem
Resources
Contaminants
Environment
Natural Hazards
Climate
Human Health
Behavior
Knowledge
Interactions with OthersClose Contacts
Residents
Professionals
Government
Business
Non-Profit / Volunteer Organizations
Politics
Strategies and tactics
Policy
Education
Activity
Innovation
Monitoring
Collaboration
Consequences
Efficacy
Beliefs
Negative
Positive
PriorityDunes at Folly Beach County Park (June 2018)
Code Examples
Natural Hazards
Includes mention of severe weather or any
natural hazard such as hurricanes, sea-level
rise, flooding etc.
➢ "So, if you need space for a fish farm,
you cut trees out of an area, then you
put an impervious surface in and you're
increasing flooding." [Bam 00:44:10]Natural Hazards, Resources, Development
➢ "That would have been around the time
of [Hurricane] Sandy, so before the
2015 floods, but the 2014 act would
been around the time of Sandy when
everybody in New England was
impacted and they were trying to deal
with things." [Apm 00:14:00] Natural Hazards, Residents
Education
Mention of education, outreach, or extension
to any individual by means of any type of
learning experience. Marketing tactics are
also included.
➢ "But it has to be translated for the
majority of people in order for the
populous as a whole to come onboard,
accept and go along with it."
[Bpm 01:02:33] Education, Residents, Efficacy, Beliefs
➢ "The complexity of it has to be reduced
for the public, and for politicians, and for
policymakers." [Bpm 01:04:01] Education, Residents, Government
Preliminary ResultsWater quality
● Foster voluntary water quality testing with citizen
science monitoring.
● Educate stakeholders on best management practices
(BMPs).
Contaminants of emerging concern / antibiotic-
resistant infections● Consider the potential benefit of citizen science
monitoring.
● Need to provide information to the public and
legislators.
● Is increased treatment of wastewater necessary?
Loss of ecosystem services● Long-term resilience is being affected by decreased
adaptation to changes.
● Make proactive restoration efforts of wetlands and
oyster reefs.
● Consider conservation easements and sustainable
practices in development at the landscape level instead
of individual lots.Folly Beach (June 2018)
Future Outcomes
Produce knowledge base for local and state government officials and decision makers
Share the policy recommendations from participants on environmental health issues
Test codebook which will allow other researchers and practitioners to analyze discussions relating to environmental health risks
Sunset at Toler’s Cove, Sullivan’s Island (May 2017)
Sources Berman, E., & Wang, X. (2011). Essential Statistics for Public Managers
and Policy Analysts. Third Edition. CQ Press.
Bratman, M. E. (2013). Shared agency: A planning theory of acting
together. Oxford University Press.
Cope, M. (2010). Coding Transcripts and Diaries. Chapter 27. Key methods
in geography, pp. 440-452.
Fishkin, J. S., & Luskin, R. C. (2005). Experimenting with a democratic
ideal: Deliberative polling and public opinion. Acta politica, 40(3), 284-
298.
Flynn, J., Slovic, P., & Mertz, C. K. (1994). Gender, race, and perception of
environmental health risks. Risk analysis, 14(6), 1101-1108.
Gastil, J., Reedy, J., Braman, D., & Kahan, D. M. (2007). Deliberation across
the cultural divide: Assessing the potential for reconciling conflicting
cultural orientations to reproductive technology. Geo. Wash. L. Rev., 76,
1772.
Gómez, A., Balsari, S., Nusbaum, J., Heerboth, A., & Lemery, J. (2013).
Perspective: Environment, biodiversity, and the education of the
physician of the future. Academic Medicine, 88(2), 168-172
Irvin, R.A. & Stansbury, J. (2004). Citizen participation in decision making:
Is it worth the effort. Public Administration Review, 64: 55-65.
Jenkins-Smith, H. C., Ripberger, J. T., Copeland, G. W., Nowlin, M. C.,
Hughes, T., Fister, A. L., & Wehde, W. (2017). Quantitative Research
Methods for Political Science, Public Policy and Public Administration:
With Applications in R. University Libraries, the University of Oklahoma.
Kahan, D. M. (2012). Cultural cognition as a conception of the cultural
theory of risk. In Handbook of risk theory (pp. 725-759). Springer
Netherlands.
Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L. L.,
Braman, D., & Mandel, G. (2012). The polarizing impact of science
literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature
climate change, 2(10), 732.
Luskin, R. C., O'Flynn, I., Fishkin, J. S., & Russell, D. (2014).
Deliberating across deep divides. Political Studies, 62(1), 116-135.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2015).
Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and
coastal flooding-a global assessment. PloS one, 10(3), e0118571.
RStudio Team (2015). RStudio: Integrated Development for R.
RStudio, Inc., Boston, MA URL http://www.rstudio.com/
Sandifer, P. A., Holland, A. F., Rowles, T. K., & Scott, G. I. (2004). The
oceans and human health. Environmental Health Perspectives,
112(8), A454.
Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236(4799), 280-285.
Strauss, A. (1987) Qualitative Analysis for Social Scientists.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. See Cope, 2010.
United States Census Bureau (2017) Estimates of Resident Population
Change and Rankings: July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016. March 2017.
Wutich, A. and Gravlee, C. (2010). “Water Decision-Makers in a
Desert City: Text Analysis and Environmental Social Science,” in
Vaccaro, Ismael, et al., eds., Environmental Social Sciences: Methods
and Research Design, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 188-
211.
Image Sources● Slade, David (May 24, 2018). Charleston area, Upstate
cities see explosive growth, while Columbia loses
residents. Charleston Post Courier. May 24, 2018.
Link to article:
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/charleston-
area-upstate-cities-see-explosive-growth-while-
columbia-loses/article_96a00b76-5de6-11e8-88e4-
e78192dc6955.html
● Heller, Martin (2015). Learn to crunch big data with R.
February 11, 2015. InfoWorld.
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2880360/big-
data/learn-to-crunch-big-data-with-r.html
● Yasser, Ayah (2016). Finding Common Ground.
February 12, 2016. Link: https://alexsb.org/finding-
common-ground/
● Wilkie, Keith (2012). Three Egret Marsh. Link:
https://fineartamerica.com/featured/three-egret-
marsh-keith-wilkie.html
● Green, Jonathan (1990). Oyster Pickers.
● Green, Jonathan (2001). Firegrass.
● Braud, Alex (February, 2018). Oyster Harvest Photos.
Jonathan Green, “Firegrass” (2001)
Thank You
Beach at Melton Demetre “Sunrise” Park, Charleston (February 2018)
Questions?
Beach at Melton Demetre “Sunrise” Park, Charleston (February 2018)