demand and cost models for small urban and rural transit
TRANSCRIPT
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Demand and Cost Models for Small Urban and Rural Transit: Do They Really Work?
SURTC Research SeminarSeptember 12, 20071:30 p.m. - 2:30 p.m.
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Role of Demand ModelsNeed demand forecasts to:•Determine scale of operation (number
of vehicles, staff, facilities)•Determine spatial aspects of demand to
set routes, service areas•Develop revenue estimates•Determine of transit options are cost-
effective
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Role of Operating Cost Models
Use operating cost models to:•Prepare budgets and obtain funding
•Evaluate service options•Analyze performance
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Typical Approaches to Demand Forecasting
For existing systems – project past trendsFor new systems•Statistical models that consider
demand-related factors such total population, target group population, density, and quantity of service
•Comparative demand estimates based on trip rates from similar areas and services
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Typical Approaches to Cost Modeling
Regression cost models with vehicle miles, hours, number of vehicles as independent variablesUse average expense/hour or expense/mile from similar systemsBudget based on inputs, e.g., driver hours, fuel, insurance, administrative salaries, rentFor existing services, use a unit cost model based on actual expenses or budget projections
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Theme of This PresentationWhen it comes to planning for rural transit systems, experience and hands-on involvement beats modeling and statistical analysis.This is especially true when forecasting demand and estimating expenses.
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
What’s wrong with rural transit demand models?
Most, if not all, models calibrated using limited data setsData from rural transit systems unreliable due to problems of data collection and interpretationModels fail to capture significant and important intangibles such as system image, reliability, attitude of management, etc.Resulting projections are no more likely to provide planning guidance than much simpler methods
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
What’s wrong with cost models?Lack of uniform definition of line items, and operating statistics for rural systems (may change with new federal reporting requirements)Some costs “hidden” if system is part of larger agencyLegitimate differences in cost/service philosophy hard to capture
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Need Versus DemandNeed – potential ridership without consideration of actual level of service, fare, quality of serviceDemand – actual ridership as determined by service characteristics and price.
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Why try to estimate need?Gain political supportBuild community supportStall – avoid hard part – implementation
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
How to determine need?Mobility Gap – difference between number of trips taken by households with vehicles versus no vehiclesSurvey of residents/potential usersExpert knowledge of area (representatives of local human service agencies)
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Transit DemandActual number of one-way passenger trips per yearDepends on:•Population of Service area•Quantity of service provided•Quality of service•Fare
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
TCRP Report 3: Workbook for Estimating Demand for Rural Passenger Transportation (1995)
Estimate actual ridership levels – two categories •Program-related trips•Non-program (general public) trips
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
TCRP Report 3: Workbook for Estimating Demand for Rural Passenger Transportation (1995)
Program-related demand•Number of participants for various
types of programs (mental health, job training, meals, nursing homes, etc.) times an annual trip rate
•Trip-rate factors based on survey of 39 agencies
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
TCRP Report 3: Workbook for Estimating Demand for Rural Passenger Transportation (1995)
Non-program-related demand•Estimates demand for three categories
of transit dependent including: elderly, disabled, low income
•Includes per capita trip rates modified by quantity of service as measured by vehicle miles of service per square mile of service area
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Some ObservationsNeed cannot be objectively definedNeeds assessments will result in ridershipestimates 7-10 time higher than actual experienceActual demand for rural transit services will be greater than that which can be providedDemand forecasting models are subject to great error
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Some ObservationsThe cost of making an error in demand estimates is usually small• Passenger revenue makes up a small part of
the total budget of a system (10-25%) therefore a large error in estimating revenue has a relatively small impact on overall finances
• If ridership is underestimated, additional resources can be acquired to respond to demand
•Therefore, don’t spend much time on demand forecasts
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Focus on Supply – Supply Determines Actual Demand
If you assume that the demand for public transportation exceeds a transit system’s ability to provide rides, then the supply of transit that can be funded will determine the demand actually experienced by the system.
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Example of Supply Determining Demand
Say you are trying to serve an area with 20,000 personsIf you can afford to operate 5 vans then you will probably provide about 15,000 hours of service a year and can transport 3 persons per hour so actual demand will be 45,000 one-way trips.If you can only afford 3 vehicles then demand will probably be around 27,000 one-way trips
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Very basic transit planningService area population = 20,000Likely demand between 1 and 4 trips per capita or 20,000 – 80,000 one-way trips per yearVehicle hours required to meet demand assuming •4 one-way trips per hour 5,000 –
20,000•2 one-way trips per hour 10,000 –
40,000
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Relationship of Trips/Capita and Vehicle Miles/Square Mile North Dakota Systems 2004
Lowest Quartile•Trips/Capita .12 - .41•Vehicle miles/sq. mi. 4.4 – 34.4
Highest Quartile•Trips/Capita 1.87 - 3.44•Vehicle miles/sq. mi. 7.4 – 174.6
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Very basic transit planning (Continued)
Vehicles required --•2 one-way trips per hour 10,000 –
40,000 = 5 to 20 vehicles•4 one-way trips per hour 5,000 –
20,000 = 3 to 10 vehicles
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Very basic transit planning (Continued)
Operating Expense assuming $30/hour•2 one-way trips per hour 10,000 –
40,000 hrs = $300,000 - $1,200,000•4 one-way trips per hour 5,000 –
20,000 hrs = $150,000 - $600,000
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Very basic transit planning (Continued)
Funding requirementsTotal Expenses $150,000 - $1,200,000Passenger Rev. 20,000 200,000Deficit $130.000 $1,000,000
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Keys to a Successful Rural Transit System
A mover and shaker to advocate for change/a new serviceA good technical plan•Service design• Fares• Scheduling
Strong management• Entrepreneurial• Risk taker•Good organization
Money
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
River Cities Public Transit Pierre, South Dakota
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Which System is RCPT?
66.056.338,96634,002592,170215,242System C
66.283.856,60028,590437,444110,182System B
80.181.401,74823,502140,15932,920System A
Veh Mile/Sq MilesTrips/CapitaArea (sq mi)PopulationVehicle milesOne-Way Trips
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
River Cities Public Transit Service Area
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
RCPT Service Area Population (2000 Census)
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
RCPT Services – March 2006
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
RCPT Ridership and Vehicle Mile Trends
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Older Vehicles in RCPT Fleet
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Sprinter
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Scheduling/Dispatching Display
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
RCPT Service Sector Productivity
Table 3.6. Estimated Trip Rates for River Cities Public Transit Services (January 2006 Data)
Service Sector One-way Trips Per CapitaPrimary Service Area (Pierre/Ft. Pierre) 8.22Harrold/Highmore Work Shuttle 1.03Lower Brule Service 2.34Total System 6.10
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
Why the models wouldn’t work for RCPT
Unique service mix•24/7 taxi•Strong emphasis on school-aged ridersHigh levels of funding allow service expansions to low density/low ridership, high need areasIntentional decisions that result in higher expenses (better paid drivers, levels of service)Community involvement and image
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Small Urban & Rural Transit Center
A Key Demand Statistic: RidershipHabit = one-way trips/capita
Fare Structures in the Transit Industry, American Transit Association, (1933)•Problem defining service area and
service area population•361 rides/capita – San Francisco to 39
rides per capita in Gary Indiana•Duluth – 110 rides/capita, Madison
Wisc. 92