demand modeling and behavioral economics: dealing with some loose ends

8/3/2019 Demand Modeling and Behavioral Economics: Dealing with Some Loose Ends

1/41

HEBLYAOUXLC EKO@OJAK[ L@D DEJL@D

JODECCA@N=

DELCA@N ^ATB [OJE COO[E E@D[

Cua{ ^accuj{e`


2/41

[oje ocd ko`kex`{# {oje `e~ vo{{ahacatae{

Jodec{ lxe l {ajvcaiakltao` oi xelcatq hl{ed o` {oje u{eiuc

tbeoxetaklc l{{ujvtao`{

Jodec{ lxe ylcad a`{oilx tbe tbeoxetaklc l{{ujvtao`{ xejla`

xel{o`lhce

[ldcq# oux tbeoxetaklc l{{ujvtao`{ do `ot xevxe{e`t bujl`heblyaoux ~ecc

Be`ke# jodec{ kl` cae

Tbexeioxe# jodec xe{uct{ lxe ~oxtb cattce ~atbout a`texvxetltao`l`dmudneje`t

To ajvxoye mudneje`t ~e ju{t celx` joxe ixoj caie l`d

ervexaje`t{


3/41

KO@TE@T[

Ko`te`t{

. ^blt ert?


4/41

TBE@EED

IOXJODEC[

^bq do ~e u{e jodec{?

At a{ oite` too daiiakuct "vocataklccq l`d xe{ouxke erve`{aye!

to u`dextlge ervexaje`t{ l{ a` [kae`ke ) E`na`eexa`n

A` oxdex to vxoyadeioxekl{t{ lhout iutuxeko`datao`{ "l{ ~e

kl``ot do txue ervexaje`t{ ~atb tbej!

A` oxdex to kojvlxe joxe lctex`ltaye{ tbl` ~oucd hevo{{ahce ~atb ervexaje`t{

To celx` joxe lhout bo~ tba{ kojvcer {q{tej oi lktayatae{#

cl`d u{e l`d johacatq ~oxg{ tbu{ ajvxoya`n tbe hl{a{ iox

oux ldyake


5/41

GEQXE\UAXEJE@T[

Tbe ioux vacclx{ oi nood jodec{

Nood iutuxevovucltao`{q`tbe{a{

[q{teje|uacahxauj

Ko`{a{te`kq oi

iutuxeheblyaoux

Heblyaouxlc

kboakejodecca`n

Utacatq iu`ktao`{ l`dkboake jodec{

lvvcaed lt daiiexe`tceyec{ oi lnnxenltao`

Tbe vlxljetex{ a`tbe utacatq iu`ktao`{

l`d kboake{txuktuxe{ xejla`

tbe {lje

Lkkuxlte lccokltao`oi vovucltao`{ l`d

lktayatae{ a` tbe

iutuxe

Lvvxovxalte ieed*hlkg tbxounb lcc

xeceyl`t {uhjodec{to e`{uxe ko`{a{te`t

xe{uct{

m

j

U

m U

j

eVe

m

j

U

m U

j

eVe

m| m| m|

U Y m| m| m|U Y

Ioxekl{ta`n


6/41

HEBLYAOU

XLCJODEC[

Utacatq iu`ktao`{

Jodecca`n kboake{

Bojo Ekoòjaku{

Xltao`lc a`dayadulc{ {eega`n to

jlraja{e tbeax Utacatq kboo{a`n

ljo`n daiiexe`t lctex`ltaye{m

Jodeccex bl{ a`kojvcete gò~cedne

hut kl` e{tajlte tbe jo{t

{anàiakl`t vlxt oi tbe utacatq

iu`ktao`

Tbe {q{tejltak kojvoè`t Y mko`tla`{ lttxahute{ cage= taje# ilxe#

a`koje# {erl`d l`L[K "kojioxt#

ko`yeàe`ke.....!

Tbe xl`doj kojvoè`t emlh{oxh{lcc tbe u`gò~` ylxalhce aìcue`ke{

l`d tbe uèrvclaèd heblyaoux.

m

j

U

m U

j

eVe

m m aU Y


7/41

TÔYAE^

[OIBUJL@[

Bojo Ekoòjaku{

L (xltao`lc( hea`n tblt ko`{adex{ovvoxtuàtae{ l`d {eeg{ to ovtaja{e

ba{/bex utacatq hq klxeiuc kboake{.

Bojex [lvae`{

L vlxtcq xltao`lc hut lc{o ejotao`lc l`dkocclhoxltaye hea`n tblt txae{ to ia`d

blvvaè{{# xe{vekt ixoj veex{ l`d l

{e`{e oi vuxvo{e a` ~blt be/{be doe{.

Heblyaouxlc Ekoòjak{ {bed{ {oje canbto` tbe vxedaktltahacatq oi ba{/bex

heblyaoux# oite` a`ko`{a{te`t ~atb oux

jodec{

Hut ai {oje oi oux txlyec kboake{ lxe ce{{

tbl` xltao`lc ~blt a{ tbe ylcue oi oux

utacatq iu`ktao`{ l`d kboake jodec{?


8/41

BOJOEKO@OJAKU[

Tbe daiiakuctae{ ~atb Bojo Ekoòjaku{

Tbexe a{ {txo`n {u{vakao` tblt at a{ l ko`yeàe`t l{{ujvtao` hut

doe{ òt koxxe{vo`d to xelcatq

Tba{ ja{jltkb jlq jlttex ce{{ to deyecov tbeoxq hut at doe{

liiekt tbe ioxekl{t{ l`d ldyake ~e vxoyade

Tbe 8662/1 kxa{a{ hxounbt Heblyaouxlc Ekoòjak{ lt tbeioxeixo`t= ~atè{{ tbe clxne ùjhex oi hoog{ vuhca{bed {a`ke

tbe`

Oux axxltao`lcatae{ jlq he l{ ajvoxtl`t l{ oux xltao`lcatq

...l`d tba{ vxohcej a{ kojvou`ded a` tbe jodex` ~oxcd


9/41

Tbe ùjhex oi ovtao`{ lylaclhce geev{a`kxel{a`n

Vxake{ lxe hekoja`n ce{{ kxa{v# iared l`dvxedaktlhce

Hut {oje tba`n{ {tacc lvvelx to he ixee

Joxeoyex# ~e kbl`ne oux ja`d...l{dejo`{txlted hq heblyaouxlc kbl`ne

vxonxljje{

Heblyaouxlc Ekoòjak{ bl{dejo`{txlted# u{a`n {ajvce hut xeceyl`tervexaje`t{# tblt ~e lxe òt e`taxecqxltao`lc ~be` jlga`n kboake{

[o# ~e ju{t xekonà{e tblt oux jodec{lxe mu{t lvvxorajltao`{ l`d jlqja{celd

^blt {boucd ~e do tbe`?

A` l kbl`na`n ~oxcd... LKBL@NA@NKO@TERT


10/41

TBEXE A[ LC[O L VXOHCEJ ÂTB JO@EQ...

ê gò~ lhout tbe daiiexe`t tqve{ oi taje# hut..


11/41

A[TAJELC^LQ[TAJE?

Daiiexe`t ga`d{ oi taje

A`*yebakce taje "otbex

lktayatae{ vo{{ahce!

A`*yebakce taje

^lcga`n taje

^lata`n taje

Uèrvekted ~lata`n

Tbexe a{ eyade`ke tblt

L{ tbe taje {ve`t txlyecca`n

hekoje{ ce{{ kojioxtlhce at{

ko{t a`kxel{e{

Tbe vo{{ahacatq oi doa`n

{ojetba`n ec{e xeduke{ de ko{t

oi taje {ve`t txlyecca`n

Xelc Taje Aìoxjltao` becv{ to

dekxel{e tbe u`kextla`tq

kojvoè`t oi da{kojioxt

Vxotektao` ixoj ~eltbex l`d

ce{{ kxo~da`n xeduke{ tbe ko{t oitaje

Hut ~e jlq net u{ed to jl`q

tba`n{


12/41

A[JO@EQLC^LQ[JO@EQ?

Daiiexe`t ga`d{ oi joèq

Kl{b

Kxedat klxd

[jlxtklxd{ cage

Oq{tex

Tln ox ko`txlkt{ to vlqtocc{ l`d vlxga`n

Johace vboè vlqje`tiox vlxga`n# etk

Tbexe a{ eyade`ke tblt

L{ ~e joye l~lq ixoj kl{b

vxake "joèq! hekoje{ ce{{

~ecc deiaèd

...l`d ~acca`nè{{ to vlq a{

el{aex..

L{ ~e a`kxel{e tbe taje

eclv{ed het~ee` u{e l`d

vlqje`t l {ajaclx eiiekt a{

iou`d

Ai vxake{ kbl`ne {anàiakl`tcq

oyex taje l`d ~e vlq

ecektxoàklccq tbe eiiekt a{

ljvcaiaed


13/41

U@DEX[TL

@DA@NJO@EQ

Oux gò~cedne oi vxake{

A{ hekoja`n joxe teùou{

Ertxeje erljvce{=

aìoxjltao` a{ lylaclhce hut at

a{ ajvo{{ahce to u{e.

Lcjo{t aèyatlhcq tba{

blvve`{ a` clxne l`d kojvcer

tocc xold{7

Hut jlq lc{o blvve` a`

erte`{aye Vuhcak Txl`{voxt

èt~oxg{ ~atb kojvcer ilxe

{txuktuxe{.

[a`nlvoxe Heioxe l`d Litex


14/41

[L@TALNO

TOCCXOLD[

5 ko`ke{{ao`{

Lcc ~atb tbxee

ceyec vxaka`n=

9/


15/41

KO

@N

E[T

AO@KBLX

NA

@N

A@[L@TA

LN

O

Ohmektaye= ixee*ico~ xold[L@TALNO

TOCCXOLD[


16/41

ERLJVCEO

IERVEKTEDKBL

XNA@N[KBEDUCE

LJ IV VT [L DO LJ IV VT [L DO LJ IV VT [L DO

< @[ THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV

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; @[ THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV T[ THIV T HIV

; [@ THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV T[ THIV THIV THIV THIV

4 @[ THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV

4 [@ THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV

5 @[ THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV T[ THIV T HIV

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9 @[ THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THV T[ THIV T HIV

9 [@ THV THIV THIV THIV THIV T[ THIV THIV THIV THIV T[ THIV THIV THIV THIV

> @[ THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV T[ THIV THV THIV THIV

> [@ THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV THIV THIV THIV THIV

2 @[ THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THV T[ THIV T HIV


1 @[ THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV THIV



17/41

U@DEX[TL

@DA@NOIVXAKE

Oux txliiak ioxekl{t{

^exe vxettq nood# erkevt iox

tbe hlcl`ke het~ee` to

lctex`ltaye ko`ke{{ao`{

Tbe t~o xoute{ het~ee` l geq

deka{ao` voa`t l`d tbe Laxvoxt

~exe xounbcq tbe {lje a`

taje hut tbe {outbex` o`e a{

joxe erve`{aye "joxe

ko`ne{ted!.

Jo{t dxayex{ {tacc vxeiexxed

tbe {outbex` xoute l{ tbeq

o`cq kou`ted hcav{ o` tbeax

tln{

Xoute{ Lvo|ua`do to Laxvoxt


18/41

DELCA@N^

ATBIU]]QJO@EQ

Tbe vxohcej ~atb jodex` joèq

Vxake{ lxe hekoja`n iu}}aex l`d ce{{ {uh{tl`talc

L`d tbe iu}}aex l`d jo{t lttxlktaye oi tbej lcc a{ ixee,

Ecektxoàk ioxj{ oi vlqje`t a`kxel{e tbe taje clv{ed

het~ee` u{e l`d vlqje`t

Tbexe {eej{ to he l ko`yexne`ke het~ee` yexq iu}}q klx

ovexlta`n ko{t{ l`d a`kxel{a`ncq hcuxxq vuhcak txl`{voxt ilxe{

Tbexeioxe u`dex{tl`da`n bo~ ~e vlx{e ylxalhce l`d iu}}q

vxake{ ~acc hekoje kxataklc to iutuxe jodecca`n l`d# joxe

ajvoxtl`tcq# to iutuxe ldyake to Noyex`je`t{ l`d

Ko`ke{{ao`laxe{ lcage

Bl`dca`n daiiexe`t joèq l{ ~e do daiiexe`t taje{ a{ vo{{ahce

hut [tlted Vxeiexe`ke a{ ~elg a` e{tlhca{ba`n ~eanbt{ bexe.....


19/41

ECEKTXO@AKVLQJE@T

Iu{{q vxake{ l`d joèq

[l`talno tln{ l`d nl`txae{

Tbexeioxe...

Anòxa`n tbe daiiexe`t ga`d{ oi

joèq l`d vxake{ a` oux

jodec{ ~acc celd to ~xo`n

ioxekl{t{ "vxohlhcq

u`dexe{tajltao`{! l`d ~elg

ldyake.

Tbe vxohcej a{ kojvou`d

heklu{e oi tbe vo~ex oi

ldyexta{a`n a` {oiteà`n

joètlxq ko{t{ l`d hxa`na`n

uv otbex l{vekt{ oi Bojex

Ekoòjaku{.

Ecektxoàk vlqje`t bl{ {oje

otbex ldyl`tlne{...


20/41

ERVEXAJE@

T[

Ervexaje`tltao`

Tbexe a{ {kove iox joxe

ervexaje`tltao` a` vxlktake=

Da{kou`t{ iox ixe|ue`t

u{ex{

Da{kou`t{ iox jlxna`lc ò`*

u{ex{

Ajvoxtl`ke oi òtkl`àhlca{a`n era{ta`n

xeyeùe{

Ervexaje`t{ ~atb [jlxt

Klxd u{ex{# vlxga`n#

ko`ne{tao` kblxna`n#johace vboè yocu`teex{

Ovvoxtuàtae{

Lkke{o @oxte Hueò{ Laxe{

Da{kou`t iox ixe|ue`t u{ex{

oyex 46 u{e{ vex jo`tb

T Jo{ko{o Hxadne a` [l` Mul`

A` l{{okaltao` ~atb

heblyaouxlc kbl`ne aàtaltaye{

^be` tbexe lxe jlmox

uvbelylc{ a` tbe {q{tej=

Icood{# {txage{# xold~oxg{


21/41

TBEXE LXE VXOHCEJ[ ^ATB XLTAO@LC KBOAKE[

Iax{t oi lcc# ~e lxe oite` hal{ed a` oux kboake{....


22/41

KBOAKEHAL

[E[

Gò~` l`d dokuje`ted ò`*xltao`lc hal{e{

Gò~` l`d dokuje`ted ò`*xltao`lc hal{e{

L`kboxa`n# Ltte`tao`lc Hal{# Nxouvtba`g# Hal{ hca`d {vot#

Kboake*{uvvoxtaye hal{. Koìaxjltao` hal{# Ko`nxue`ke hal{#

Ko`txl{t eiiekt# Deòja`ltao` eiiekt# Da{ta`ktao` hal{#

E`do~je`t eiiekt# Ervektltao` hal{# Ioku{a`n eiiekt# Ixlja`n

eiiekt# Bo{tace jedal eiiekt# Bqvexhocak da{kou`ta`n# Accu{ao` oiko`txoc# Ajvlkt hal{# Aìoxjltao` hal{# Axxltao`lc e{klcltao`#

Co{{ lyex{ao`# Jexe ervo{uxe eiiekt# Joèq accu{ao`# Joxlc

kxede`talc eiiekt# @enltayatq hal{# @encekt oi vxohlhacatq#

@oxjlckq hal{# Oja{{ao` hal{# Outkoje hal{# Vcl`à`n ilcclkq#

Vo{t*vuxkbl{e xltao`lca}ltao`# V{eudokextla`tq eiiekt#

Xelktl`ke# Xe{txla`t hal{# [ecektaye vexkevtao`# [ejjec~ea{

xeicer# [okalc kojvlxa{o` hal{# [tltu{ |uo hal{# Uàt hal{#

â{biuc tba`ga`n# ]exo*xa{g hal{


23/41

TBEAJVEX

JL@E@KEOIYLCUE

Bo~ jukb ~oucd qou vlq?

To huq vlq`o joxetbl`

demand modeling and behavioral economics: dealing with some loose ends

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