demand routing for intermodal transportation networks ...m.ghfc.com/uploads/docs/henderson.pdf ·...
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Demand Routing for Intermodal Transportation Networks using a
Design-as-Inference Approach
Lei Cao, Paul M. Goggans, R. Wesley Henderson
Dept. of Electrical Engineering University of Mississippi
Orlando, FL – April 4, 2013
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Outline
• Problem – Intermodal freight routing – Terminal planning
• Methods – Design-as-inference – Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
• Current status & future work
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Intermodal Freight Network
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Intermodal Freight Network
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Intermodal Freight Network
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Freight Demand Routing
• Routing demand through fixed network • Must meet demand estimates and terminal
capacity constraints
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Terminal Planning
• Terminals may be added to ease congestion, add capacity, and ultimately reduce the cost of using the network
• Costs of building and running terminal must be weighed against the reduction in transportation cost by routing a greater portion of demand over rail
• Fixed cost of terminal becomes important
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Cost and Terminal Capacity
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Design-as-Inference
• Demand estimates can be distributions • Enables incorporation of uncertainty in
demand estimates
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Design-as-Inference
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Design-as-Inference
• Evidence is used to compare different proposed terminal locations
• Terminals that would be a net benefit to the network have a higher evidence value
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MCMC
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Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
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Roadmap
• Address terminal addition • Improve prior exploration in nested sampling • Use mapping data to generate more realistic
test cases
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Acknowledgement
• Thanks to NCITEC and USDOT for funding this project