Democratization and democratic survival

Political Economy of the Global SouthProf. Tyson Roberts

Questions

• Why do some countries democratize and others remain dictatorships?

• Why do some democracies survive and others fail/revert to dictatorship?

Lipset (1959)

• Empirical pattern:– More developed countries are more likely to be

democratic than the less developed• Argument:– Economic development => social development

(education, industrialization, middle class, etc.) => stable democracy

Correlation is not causation

Does high income level help countries become democracies? …

Source: PWT & Polity IV via QoG; Year: 2007

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Or does democracy help countries achieve high income levels?

We will address effects of democracy next lecture

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Income level appears to have little/no effect on democratization post WW2(However, wealthier nations were more likely to democratize pre-1925)

Source: Boix & Stokes 2003

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Democracy is less likely to survive in poor countries than in wealthy ones (in any era)

Source: Boix & Stokes 2003

Models of democratization as strategic interactions between elites and citizens

• Rich Rulers vs. Poor Ruled– Boix (2003), Acemoglu & Robinson (2001), etc.– Taxes redistribute from poor to rich in democracies– May be more relevant for economic elite-based regimes,

e.g., Bolivia • Revenue maximizing rulers versus politically powerless

citizens– North and Weingast (1989), Olson (1993), etc. – May be more relevant for state-based elite regimes, e.g.,

Zaire– Taxes redistribute from ruled to rulers in dictatorships

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Rich/Minority group

Repress Don’t Repress

Poor/Majority group

Revolt Acquiesce

WAR

Poor win Rich win

Democratic Redistribution, including mass education, etc.

DictatorshipNo redistributionCost of repression for rich

RevolutionPoor expropriate fixed assetsMobile assets fleeCost of war for all

DictatorshipNo redistributionRich take assets from poorCost of war for all

Boix (2003): Rich rulers allow for democracy to avoid expropriating revolution

Stable democracy is least likely when inequality is high (demand for redistribution) and economic assets are

immobile (wealth cannot exit)

How democratization has changed

• Market economy vs. state ownership and regulation– Countries ruled by economic elites are often market-

based (e.g., in Latin America)– Post-Cold War, most authoritarian regimes used state

intervention/ownership in economy• International influences– Trade, investment, and aid can affect democratization– During Cold War, Super Powers were willing to support

dictatorships

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High income level increases probability of democratization if the economy is neither centrally controlled nor oil-dependent

Source: Boix & Stokes 2003

• Characteristics of the regime– Military dictatorships prefer negotiated

democratization to revolution or war– Personalist leaders have most to lose from

democratization, less willing to democratize than military or party-based dictatorships

– Monarchies that share power with the family are more durable than monarchies with concentrated power

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Post-Cold War

• At end of Cold War, income level had less effect on probability of democratization

• Countries in economic crisis often democratize, unless oil-rich

• Oil-rich countries often held multi-party elections but these often were not free & fair

• Foreign aid from the West had no effect on democracy level during Cold War, but had positive effect after CW in Africa (Dunning 2004)

• But the War on Terror brings back some CW-style geopolitics…

The Economist: “Crying for Freedom” (2010)

• Number of electoral democracies down to lowest number since 1995

• Multiparty elections without quality institutions (e.g., rule of law) can create problems

• Some argue that economic growth under democratization should preceed democratization– For example, China & Singapore have grown dramatically

without democratizing– Other dictatorships seek to emulate

• More on democracy and growth next class…