democratization hartanto respati university of yogyakarta
TRANSCRIPT
Democratization
HartantoRespati University of
Yogyakarta
Three Waves of Democracy
• In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history.
Samuel P. Huntington
The Three Waves: When?
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Third Wave ofDemocratization (1974-?)
First, Long Wave ofDemocratization (1828-1926)
First Reverse Wave (1922-1942)
Second, Short Wave ofDemocratization(1943-1962)
Second ReverseWave (1958-1975)
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
• Huntington offers two definitions of democracy that apply to different periods of time.
• Definition 1 • -Applies to 19th Century.
–50% of adult males can vote. –There is an executive that either
maintains majority support in an elected parliament, or is chosen in periodic popular elections.
Huntington’s Definition of Democracy
• Definition 2 • - Applies to 20th Century.
–Virtually all adults can vote.–Leaders are selected through fair,
honest and periodic elections.
The First Wave: Why?
• Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white settler countries. The causes are:
1. Economic Factors:– First countries to experience economic
development, industrialization and urbanization.– Emergence of middle class.– Decrease in economic inequality.
The First Wave: Why?
2. Historical events and intellectual developments:
– French Revolution.– American Revolution.– John Locke.– Montesquieu.– John Stuart Mill.
The First Wave: Why?
3. Religious Factors– Over 75% of the countries that democratized in
the first wave had majority Protestant populations.
4. World War One– Democratic countries defeated two large
authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires.
– This produced snowballing, or a demonstration effect, that encouraged the development of democracy.
The Second Wave: Why?
• The second wave is largely related to WW2.
1. Imposition of Democracy.– Allied powers imposed democracy on certain
defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.
2. Snowballing (demonstration) effect.– Some countries independently chose to be
democratic.
The Second Wave: Why?
3. Decolonization.– Countries that had a number of colonies
(e.g. Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were severely weakened after WW2.
– The United States pressured these countries to give up their colonies.
– Many former colonies became independent and democratic.
The Third Wave: Why?
• Some 30 countries became democratic.
1. Legitimacy.– Democratic ideas became widely accepted.– Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic
problems as efficiently as democratic countries.
2. Economic Growth.– Higher standards of living and education
contributed to the expansion of the urban middle class.
The Third Wave: Why?
3. Change in the Catholic church.– The Catholic church, which used to be a
supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine and practice and supported democracy.
4. Foreign Policy.– Expansion of the EU.– Promotion of democracy and human rights by
the United States.– Fall of the Soviet Union.
The Third Wave: Why?
5. Snowball (or demonstration effect).– Early third wave transitions received
great media attention, which later stimulated transitions in other countries.
Democratic Transition
• Democratic transition requires three components.
1. The end of an authoritarian regime.
2. The installation of a new democratic regime (through elections).
3. The consolidation of this democratic regime.
Democratic Transition A/a-d-D
A/a-d-DA = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.
D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime.
a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.
d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime.
Stable Authoritarianism
Unstable Democracy
Stable Democracy
Unstable Authoritarianism
Time
Processes of Democratization
• Huntington identifies three different types of democratization process.1. Democratic transformation.
– takes place when powerholders take the lead in bringing about democracy.
2. Democratic replacement.– takes place when opposition groups take the lead in
bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is overthrown.
3. Democratic transplacement. – takes place when there is joint action by the
government and opposition groups to promote democratization.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation
• The following conditions facilitate democratic consolidation.
1. Previous experience of democracy.2. Relatively high GNP per capita.3. Favorable external environment. 4. Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later,
stage in the third wave.5. Democratization via transplacement, rather than
transformation or replacement.
• The following slides discuss each of these conditions more in detail.
1. Previous Democratic Experience
• Huntington argues that:– Some experience of democracy is better
than none. – Longer experience of democracy is better
than shorter experience.– The more recent the democratic
experience, the better.
Chart: Years of Democratic Experience
More than 20 years Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile
10-19 years Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea, Pakistan, Brazil
1-9 years Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria
Less than one year Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan, Mongolia
2. Level of Economic Development
• The higher level of economic development, the greater the likelihood of stable democracy.
• Economically developed countries have:– More industrialized economies.– More modern economies.– More complex societies.– Better educated populations.
• These factors all help consolidate democracy.
Chart: Democracy and GNP per capita
Higher than $5, 000
Spain, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria
$2, 000 – $4, 999 Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Korea
$1, 000 – $1, 999 Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada, Chile
$500 – $999 Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The Philippines
Less than $500 India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan
3. The External Environment
• A foreign country can have a positive influence on democratic consolidation, if the relevant foreign government:– is itself democratic.– promotes democracy in other countries.– has close relations with the third wave country in
question.– is able to exercise influence in the third wave
country in question.
Chart: External Environment and Democracy
Extremely favorable
East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece
Quite Favorable
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada
Favorable Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea, Chile
Unfavorable Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia
4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition
• Early = Indigenous– Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the
result of indigenous causes, rather than a snowball effect.
• Indigenous = Consolidation– Democratic transitions caused by indigenous
factors are more likely to lead to consolidated democracies.
• Therefore, Early = Consolidation– The earlier a country democratizes within the third
wave, the more likely it is to become a consolidated democracy.
First Dates of Elections and Democracy
Before 1980 Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria,
1980 – 1983 Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey
1984 – 1987 Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador, Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan
1988 – 1990 Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Chile
Possible after 1990
Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan, Nepal, Panama
5. Process of Democratic Transition
• Huntington identified three processes of democratic transition; transformation, replacement and transplacement.
• Huntington argues:1. There is more chance of a successful democratic
consolidation if elites from the previous non-democratic regime are satisfied.
2. There is less chance of democratic consolidation if the transition involved violence.
• If the above statements are true, it follows that transplacement is most likely to lead to consolidated democracy.
Chart: Transition Process and Democracy
Type of Old Regime
Transition Process
One party Personal Military Racial Oligarchy
Transplacement Poland CzechoslovakiaNicaragua Mongolia
(Nepal) UruguayBolivia HondurasEl SalvadorKorea
(South Africa)
Transformation HungaryBulgaria(Taiwan)(USSR)(Taiwan)
Spain India Chile
Turkey BrazilPeru GuatemalaEcuadorNigeriaPakistan Sudan
Replacement East Germany PortugalThe PhilippinesRomania
Greece Argentina
Chart: Overall Prospects for Democracy
Most Favorable Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Turkey
Less Favorable but Supportive
Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines, Poland, Hungary, (Korea)
Less Favorable Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia
Especially Unfavorable
Sudan, Romania
Chart: Freedom Classification by Freedom House (2003)
Free Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India, Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea
Partly Free Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina, Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua
Not Free Pakistan, Sudan
http://www.freedomhouse.org
Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?
Image: www.caglecartoons.com
Middle East
• Geographic area
• Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious
• Not all Arab countries
The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)
Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy
CountryIndex 2000
Democracy Civil, Political Rights
Press Freedom
Corruption
Jordan 7 6 6 4
Egypt 8 8 7 7
Saudi Arabia
9 9 9 n/a
Kuwait 8 6 5 n/a
Turkey 3 6 6 5
Iraq 9 9 9 n/a
Algeria 7 8 8 n/a
Morocco 8 5 6 5
Columbia 3 6 6 7
Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/
Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes
• There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else
• Repression, exclusion of political participation
• ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n• Large youth population• →Hopelessness,
extremism
April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram
What encourages democratization?
Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…
• National unity– ‘togetherness’• Political leadership-- personalities• Historical legacy-- colonialism• Political culture– people view power• Ethnic harmony-- cooperation• Strong political parties-- brokerage• Political institutions—legisl; judiciary• Socioeconomic development– middle class• Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie• National security– no external threat
Map of Saudi Arabia
• International organizations– UN declaration of human rights– International law; ICC
• State pressure– EU; foreign aid
• Economic Factors– MNCs, entrepreneurs– Globalization
• Waves of democracy– Huntington: “snowballing”
External Factors thatEncourage Democratization…
George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for
Democracy “As long as the Middle East
remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”
What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?
Domino Democratization in the Middle East
Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy
US administrationprofesses
Skeptics
THANK YOU