demographic snapshot 2016/17 - taupo district...may 2017 figure 22 property owners 2010 source:...
TRANSCRIPT
1
DEMOGRAPHIC SNAPSHOT 2016/17
The Demographic Snapshot 2016/17 (DS)1 provides an overview of various data outputs for the
Taupō district. It is a collection of data from both internal and external sources, presented in graphical
form. It is intended that the DS will inform a variety of council documents such as Taupō District 2050,
asset management plans, infrastructure strategies and the Long-term Plan. It will provide one single
source of information. Over time, it is expected that the DS will illustrate past trends and may assist in
identifying possible future trends. While there may be short-term peaks and troughs, the DS will
reflect much longer-term patterns.
In the previous Taupō District Growth Model, the data was sourced from the National Institute of
Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA). However, a decision was made to source the
population and household projection data for the DS from Statistics New Zealand. This decision was
made due to some uncertainties with the NIDEA modelling, notably at a census area unit (CAU) level.
The latest Statistics New Zealand data for the district also incorporates the most recent immigration
levels more accurately than the NIDEA projections. The data included is based on the medium
projections from Statistics New Zealand.
The data sourced from Statistics New Zealand is based on CAUs whereas the data sourced internally
from council’s record is based on rating rolls. These areas do not align precisely but the maps
contained appendix one show these areas. We have tried to align council rating database data with
census area unit data to ensure some consistency. The localities in the DS are based on the best
matching of these areas. In some localities, multiple rating rolls and census area units have been
combined to ensure more consistent data is presented. For household projections in those various
localities, we have taken the projected population and divided that by the average household
projection.
It is anticipated that the DS will remain a high-level document containing core data that can be filtered
down for purposes that are more specific by various users. The DS does not make any assumptions
or develop any strategies. Each update will include the most recent available data and a brief
commentary on what has occurred in each locality since the last DS. This inaugural document will
form the basis of future DSs. One other important thing to note is that the data provided for any future
projections is based on models using the best available information at the time. Hence, the numbers
provided are not predictions, they are simply projections.
1 Formerly known as the Taupō District Growth Model
2
TAUPŌ DISTRICT
As shown in Figure 2, the population for the district has seen steady growth in recent times but
projected growth into the future remains modest before peaking in late 2030s. It is anticipated that
beyond that time a decline in population could be expected.
Households, shown in Figure 3, face growth at a rate slightly faster than the population. This is
indicative of an ageing population and a lowering in the number of people per household.
However, this also peaks in the late 2030s as well.
The resident vs non-resident (Figure 7) property owner ratio in the district has remained relatively
stable in recent times.
Likewise, the proportion of occupied vs non-occupied dwellings has also remained stable over the
last three census periods indicating a stable holiday house market.
Figure 1 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 20162
2 The residential or rural identification for a property is differential rating category which is based on the property use.
16,331
2,180
1,372
674
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
residential rural
num
ber
of pro
pert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
3
3160032500
33400
34800
3720038100
38700 39000 39100 39000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
40000
42000
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of p
eo
ple
2013
2038
Figure 2 Estimated and projected resident population
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 3 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
estimate
projection
1126211979
14475
15500 15871
16813 1696117723 17700
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2013
2038
estimate
projection
4
Figure 4 Average household size projection
Medium projection
Average household
size Year as at 30 June
2013 2.4
2018 2.4
2023 2.4
2028 2.3
2033 2.3
2038 2.2
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 5 Taupō Population Projections by age
5
Figure 6 Number of dwellings and new lots (cumulative)
Figure 7 Property Owners
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
43% 44% 44% 44% 43% 42% 42%
57% 56% 56% 56% 57% 58% 58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Nu
mb
er
of n
ew
d
we
llin
gs &
ln
ew
ots
new dwellings new lots
Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer
6
Figure 8 Occupied and unoccupied dwellings
71%69% 68%
29%31% 32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2001 2006 2013
Occupie
d &
unoccupie
d d
welli
ngs
occupied dwellings
unoccupied dwellings
7
TAUPŌ TOWN AND SURROUNDS
This snapshot area encompasses the northern areas of the lake around the Taupō town area. It
consists of the census area units of: Broadlands, Hilltop, Lakewood, Maunganamu, Nukuhau,
Rangatira, Rangatira Park, Richmond Heights, Tauhara, Taupō Central, Taupō East, Waipahihi,
Wairakei-Aratiatia, Wharewaka, Acacia Bay and Waitahanui/Five Mile Bay.
Figure 12 shows the trend of a reducing number of lot creation vs dwelling construction.
Activity in Taupō has picked up in recent times, with reduced vacancy rates, a solid sales market
and a limited number of sections currently available for immediate building. There are extensive
areas zoned for residential development, with the potential for upwards of 3000 new lots.
Within the Acacia Bay area there has been steady but modest growth over the last decade in the
form of new dwellings. It would appear there are still a number of vacant sites where service
availability rating charges apply suggesting some capacity for new dwellings exists in the area.
The Parawera subdivision still has a majority of vacant lots, but the leasehold titles have limited
popularity.
The Mapara low-density residential area continues to undergo a steady development of around
15 dwellings per year.
Figure 9 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016
10,496
340
465
70
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
residential rural
Num
ber
of
pro
pert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
8
Figure 10 Estimated and projected resident population
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 11 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
2095022210
2315024190
2586026500 26930 27190 27260 27190
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of p
eo
ple
2013
2018
estimate
projection
77918397
1007910775 11042
11709 1182212391 12359
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of
ho
use
ho
lds
2006
2038
estimate
projection
9
Figure 12 Number of dwellings and new lots (cumulative)
Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer
Figure 13 Property Owners
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 31%
67% 67% 67% 67% 68% 68% 69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
non-resident
resident
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Num
ber
of
new
dw
elli
ngs &
new
lots
new dwellings new lots
10
KINLOCH Kinloch has experienced an increase in development in recent times. Figure 15 shows that the
population is likely to continue rising over the next 25 years. A reflection of the growth can be observed in Figure 17, where a significant number of new lots were created during the period of 2005-2007. Many of these new lots sat empty for a period of time. However, in the last couple of years in particular this capacity has been gradually taken up.
There has been an increase in the resident population. In 2010, roughly one in four property owners was a resident. By 2016, this had increased to approximately one in three property owners being resident. This reflects a number of new residents moving permanently to the area.
There is still a substantial area of residential-zoned land available for development.
Figure 14 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016
760
41
236
61
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
residential rural
Num
be
r o
f p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
11
Figure 15 Estimated and projected resident population
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 16 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
280 290
340
520
740760
780 780 780760
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of p
eo
ple
2013
2038
estimate
projection
117
138
217
308317
339 339355
345
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
2013
2018
2043
estimate
projection
12
Figure 17 Number of new dwellings and new lots (cumulative)
Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer
Figure 18 Property Owners
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
73% 72% 72%69% 69% 68%
64%
27% 28% 28%31% 31% 32%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Nu
mb
er
of n
ew
dw
elli
ng
s &
le
w lo
ts
new dwellings new lots
13
MANGAKINO Mangakino’s population has been in steady decline, with the population nearly halving since the
1996 census (see Figure 20). It is expected to continue declining.
The resident vs non-resident property owners’ ratio has stayed relatively constant over the last six years, with the non-resident property owners owning approximately two thirds of the property.
Recent years have seen a steady number of building consents issued for renovations and boat storage sheds.
Figure 19 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016
Figure 20 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
1560
1330
1060
790 760720
680 640
600540
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2013
2038
estimate
projection
616
1
105
30
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
residential rural
Num
be
r o
f p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
14
Figure 21 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 22 Property Owners
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
492
396
329317
300 296278 273
245
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2038
estimate
projection
61% 63% 64% 65%63% 63% 63%
39% 37% 36% 35% 37% 37% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
15
KURATAU, OMORI, WHAREROA
The area has several adjacent areas of freehold land around Omori and Kuratau that are zoned for residential development.
Figure 23 does not include the developed versus undeveloped properties for Whareroa. As at 26 October 2016, there were 203 developed properties and 54 undeveloped properties in Whareroa.
Figure 23 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016 Note: Data includes number of rateable/occupied and vacant sites for Pukawa, Omori and Kuratau
Figure 24 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
460
500
510
490
510
530 530 530 530
540
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2013
2038
estimate
projection
1,123
30
44
21
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
residential rural
Num
be
r o
f p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
16
Figure 25 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 26 Number of new dwellings and new lots (cumulative)
Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer Note: Data includes number of new dwellings and new lots for Omori, Kuratau and Whareroa
192201 204
213221
230 230241 245
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2013
2038
estimate
projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Num
be
r o
f d
we
llin
gs &
lo
ts
new dwellings new lots
17
Figure 27 Property Owners Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016 Note: Data includes property owners for Pukawa, Omori and Kuratau
92% 92% 93% 92% 92% 92% 92%
8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
18
MAROTIRI, TATUA
This area is a productive dairy and dry stock farming area and may be linked to economic cycles in this sector and Regional Council land use constraints more than other areas
The significant growth projections in population and households may be driven by previous farming developments in the area. This is will require closer analysis.
Figure 28 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016 Note: Data includes the number of rateable/occupied and vacant sites for the Pouakani, Mangakino, Tirohanaga, and Atiamuri
Figure 29 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
1640 1640 1660
1950
21502260
23502420
25002580
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2001
2038
estimate
projection
137
405
30
123
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
residential rural
Num
be
r o
f p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
19
Figure 30 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 31 Property Owners
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016 Data includes property owners for the rural areas of Pouakani/Mangakino and Pouakani/Atiamuri
549 573
813
896942
10221052
11361173
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2038
estimate
projection
39%42% 41% 42% 40% 41%
37%
61%58% 59% 58% 60% 59%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
20
MOTUOAPA
Motuoapa has seen steady growth in recent times as shown in Figure 33. The projections also show that the population is expected to rise modestly before levelling off.
An interesting statistic to keep an eye on over coming years is whether the increase of the resident property owners over the last three years from 22% to 28% continues.
There remain a number of vacant sections, with consent issued to subdivide a further 26 lots. Once these lots are developed, there is no more currently developable land available due to land tenure.
Figure 32 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016
Figure 33 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
130
160
230
250260 260 260 260
250240
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2013
2018
estimate
projection
395
1
139
1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
residential rural
Num
be
r o
f p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
21
Figure 34 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 35 Number of new dwellings and new lots (cumulative) Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer
57
87
104108 108
113 113 114109
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2038
estimate
projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Num
be
r o
f n
ew
dw
elli
ng
s &
ne
w lo
ts
new dwellings new lots
22
Figure 36 Property Owners Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
73% 74%77% 78% 77%
75%72%
27% 26%23% 22% 23%
25%28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
23
ORUANUI
Similar to the Marotiri and Tatua CAUs, this area is projection to significant growth in population and households. Again, this may be driven by previous farming developments in the area. This is will require closer analysis.
Figure 37 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties
Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016 Note: Data includes
the number of rateable/occupied and vacant sites for Mapara, Oruanui, Wairakei, Aratiatia Rd,
Parawera Drive & Whakamoenga Pt
Figure 38 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
1220
1560
2020
2380
26702850
30303180
33203430
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2001
2018
estimate
projection
208
847
96
180
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
residential rural
Nu
mb
er
of p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
24
Figure 39 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 40 Number of new dwellings and new lots (cumulative) Source: Taupō District Council – Roger Stokes, Development Engineer
513
669
992
11131188
1317
1383
1509
1559
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2038
estimate
projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Num
be
r o
f n
ew
dw
elli
ng
s &
ne
w lo
ts
new dwellings new lots
25
Figure 41 Property Owners Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016 Note: Data includes property owners for Taupō rural (Mapara, Oruanui, Wairakei & Aratiatia Rd
19% 19% 19% 20% 19% 18% 17%
81% 81% 81% 80% 81% 82% 83%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
26
TURANGI, TOKAANU
The population estimates for this area (Figure 43) show that the area has seen a declining population for some time. Following a plateau in recent times, it is projected to continue to decline beyond that into the future.
Figure 42 Number of developed properties versus undeveloped properties Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – extracted 26 October 2016
Figure 43 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
4130
37703570
3340 3420 33703280
31803030
2880
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
2001
2018
estimate
projection
2,014
239
192
152
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
residential rural
Nu
mb
er
of p
rop
ert
ies
undeveloped properties
developed properties
27
Figure 44 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 45 Property Owners Source: Taupō District Council Rating Database – June 2016
1311 1290
13921425 1404 1426
1383 13771309
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2018
estimate
projection
43%47% 46%
49% 48%46% 47%
57%53% 54%
51% 52%54% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
pe
rty o
wn
ers
non-resident
resident
28
RANGIPO, TONGARIRO
Figure 46 Population estimates and projections
Source: Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
Figure 47 Household estimates and projections
Source: Based on estimated and projected resident population Statistics New Zealand – extracted May 2017
970
800
700
630 620 610 590 580
470
550
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1996 2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Nu
mb
er
of p
eo
ple
2001
2018
estimate
projection
156144
263 258 254 257 252
214
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Num
be
r o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
2006
2043
estimate
projection
29