demographic transition and post-transition challenges in the russian federation: forecasts and...

Session 4

Demographic transition and post-transition

challenges in the Russian Federation:

forecasts and reality

Presentation by Mr. ALEXANDER ALIMOV

Deputy Director

Department of international Organizations,

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

of the Russian Federation

3 March 2014

INAUGURAL SEMINAR OF OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS

ON POPULATION MATTERS HAZYVIEW, MPUMALANGA, SOUTH AFRICA

OVERCOMING THE ‘RUSSIAN CROSS’ from depopulation to sustainable population growth



• As of 1 January 2014, the population of Russia is 143,657,134

(Rosstat)

• 1991 -the population hit a historic peak at 148,689,000 - just

before the breakup of the Soviet Union - but then began a decade-

long decline, falling at a rate of about 0.5% per year.

• 1993–2004, Russia’s population decreased by 5,087,000.

• 1990s: ‘The Russian Cross’ - a unique demographic transition: a

"demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeded the

number of births, life expectancy fell sharply (especially for

males), emigration reached significant numbers.




Factors explaining ‘the Russian Cross’:

• shock therapy economic-reform package clearly correlated with higher

mortality rates; human cost of the policies promoted was ignored,

including unemployment and human suffering, leading to an early death

• catastrophic growth of alcohol consumption blamed for more than half

(52%) of deaths among Russians aged 15 to 54 in the 1990s

• dramatically low fertility - bottomed out around 2000 at just above one

child per woman, or half of replacement,

• a fall in births during the 1960s, which reduced the number of women of

childbearing age in the 1990s,

• very high birth rate between 1920 and the beginning of Russia's

involvement in World War II (1941), which produced a large cohort of now

elderly people to die off during the 1990s

• sluggish birth rate between 1945 and 1990, which was for the most part at

about replacement level, especially after the early 1960s.




• 1 January 2005, the population of Russia is 143,474 thousands.

• 2004 - overall population decrease - 694 thousands or –4.8 per 1000 of the mid-year

population, surplus of deaths (2,295,000) over births (1,502,000), amounts to 793,000, not

compensated by the positive international migration balance of 100 thousand or 0.7 per

1000.

• A new demographic policy takes effect in 2007.

• May 2006 - Government measures to halt the demographic crisis are a key subject of

President Putin's State of the Nation Address: issue of raising fertility is central in finding a

way out of this demographic crisis

• National Programme is developed with the goal to reverse the trend by 2020.

• Late 2000s the rate of population decrease had begun to slow: if the net decrease from

January to August 2006 was 408,200 people, it was 196,600 in the same period in 2007.

• Natural population decline continued to slow through 2008-2012 due to declining death

rates and increasing birth rates.




• September 2009 - the Ministry of Health and Social

Development reported that Russia recorded population

growth for the first time in 15 years, with a growth rate

of 23,300.

• 2012 - the birth rate increased again: 1,896,263 births

recorded from 1,793,000 in 2011, the highest number

since 1990, and even exceeding annual births during the

period 1967–1969.

• 2012 - the number of deaths fell to 1,898 million from

1.925 million, natural population loss 2,500, compared

with loss of 131,200 in 2011.

• 1 January 2013 - population an estimated 143.3 million

on up 292,400 from the beginning of 2012

• As of 1 January 2014, the population of Russia is

143,657,134

FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s “quiet revolution in family formation”



By the middle of the 1990s - signs of change in the Russian fertility pattern: Russia on the

threshold of the Second Demographic Transition.

The middle of the 1990s - a turning point in Russian fertility and nuptiality models: start of

“westernization” of fertility in Russia

The cohorts born in the 1970s and more recently:

• marry and become parents at more mature ages.

• delay the first and the second birth.

• increasingly prefer to begin a partnership with cohabitation [“unregistered marriage”]

rather than with legal marriage. The spread of informal unions takes on an explosive

character

In late 2000s, up to 25% of women by the age of 20, and up to 45% by age 25, do not register a

marriage with their first partner. For 50% of couples by the third year the relationship is legally

formalized in a marriage.

Sexual activity among post-Soviet youth increased, the average age of sexual debut has become

younger

FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s ageing fertility



• Family planning becomes more effective, contraception replaces abortion. Shift towards the

use of more effective contraceptive methods provides grounds for the widespread delay of

the first birth and of union formation.

• Since 1995, fertility has been aging. The contribution of mothers at less than 25 years of age

to the TFR is diminishing, while that of more mature mothers is increasing.

• Reduction of fertility at younger ages has not been accompanied, for the first time ever in

Russian history, by an increase in induced abortion rates: abortion rates have halved over

ten years

• The proportion of non-marital births doubled during the last 15 years, amounting to one-

third of the total number of births.

• The conception of ideal and desired family size has not undergone significant change: two-

child family continues to dominate as the model for one’s family. The actual number of

births does not strongly diverge from the expected number.

• The proportion of voluntary childlessness as a desired behavioral model does not exceed 5%.

No confirmation that Russian women's preferences have shifted in the direction of

dominance of one child and childlessness.

FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s “Second Demographic Transition” – totally westernized?



• Fertility pattern in Russia is most likely undergoing a major transformation which lies within

the main course of fertility evolution in the developed countries and which is named the

Second Demographic Transition. If this assumption is correct, the convergence of Russia

towards the Western countries, though lagging behind, will become the future of Russian

fertility.

• Many neo-traditional features of fertility and nuptiality remain, if one compared with the

contemporary situation in Western countries:

early marriage and relatively young age at birth of the first child;

low prevalence of deliberate childlessness;

a fast pace in achieving the ultimate family size.

• The traditional goal among women is still that of the role as mother, and this still prevails

over career and educational self-realisation.

• The features, that distinguish Russia from other developed nations, will persist into the next

one to two decades.

FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s Birth rates: forecasts and figures



• The mean order of birth fell from 1.8 in the 1980s and remained at

the level of 1.5 over the last twelve years.

• 1.6 children per woman was expected for the cohorts born in 1980–

1981.

• As a result of the initiation of measures to stimulate fertility, an

increase in the TFR to the level of 1.6–1.7 is expected by 2015.

• 2012: 1,896,263 births recorded from 1.793 million in 2011 with a

TFR of about 1.7, the highest since 1991.

• The number of births is expected to fall over the next few years as

women born during the baby bust in the 1990s enter their prime

childbearing years, but this would not have an effect on the TFR.

FERTILITY PATTERNS SINCE THE MID-1990s Birth rates: forecasts and figures



• 2013 - 1.9 million births, about the

same as in 2012, but because the

number of women of childbearing age is

dropping, especially for those in their

early 20s, the TFR will actually show a

rise.

• 2013 - Russian TFR of 1.72 children per

woman is highest in Eastern, Southern

and Central Europe.

• May 2012 - Presidential decree was

adopted on, aiming at further

increasing fertility rate to 1,753 by

2018.

MORTALITY “The real tragedy for Russia”



• More than thirty-year deterioration of the mortality situation for those of working

age, especially men. Major cause - the exceptionally high mortality from all types

of external causes and early mortality from cardio-vascular diseases.

• 2012 - 1,043,292, or 55% of all deaths in Russia were caused by cardiovascular

diseases. The second leading cause of death was cancer which claimed 287,840

lives (15.2%). External causes of death totaled 10.6%, other major causes of death

were diseases of the digestive system (4.6%), respiratory disease (3.6%),

infectious and parasitic diseases (1.6%), and tuberculosis (0.9%).

• The infant mortality rate in 2012 was 7.6 deaths per 1,000 (down from 8.2 in

2009 and 16.9 in 1999). Under-five mortality rate 13 deaths/1,000 live births

(2008).

• Mortality figures by year (thousand persons)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2303,9 2166,7 2080,4 2075,9 2010,5 2028,5 1925,7 1906,3 1878,3

MORTALITY Reduction achieved



2006: mortality rate - 15,1 per 1000 citizens,

2010: mortality rate – 14.3 per 1000 citizens,

2013: mortality rate – 13,1 per 1000 citizens.

2013: number of deaths decreased by 13,3%

compared to 2006 (1,878,300 against 2,166,700).

Mortality rates of working-age

population declined more rapidly

than among the general

population.

LIFE EXPECTANCY “The most pressing demographic challenge”



• 1990s: dramatic decrease of life expectancy of men and women: 1991-2003 life expectancy

fell by 4,9 years for men and by 2,4 years for women.

• 1994: Indicators hit the bottom: 63,98 years for all population and 57,59 years for men and

71,18 years for women.

• 2000: slow rise started: 65,27 years (59,0 years men and 72,2 years women).

• 2007: further rise in life expectancy: 66,8 years (60,4 years men and 73,3 years women).

• 2013: life expectancy is 70,7 years (65,2 years men, 76,2

women).

• May 2012: Presidential decree adopted - aiming at further

increasing life expectancy to 74 years by 2018 .

• The actual data surpasses from the forecast figures issued

by the United Nations. Assuming the health provision

improves, the UN predicted an average life expectancy

rising to 65.6 years for the period between 2010 and 2015

and further to 67.1 years (2015 to 2020), 68,6 years (2020

to 2025) and 73,4 years (2045 to 2050).

AGEING Every eighth Russian is 65+



• Russia is a country with a quickly ageing population.

• 1970: the median age - 30,5 years.

• 2005: the median age - 37,3 years.

• 1990: the population aged 65+ made up 9.9 per cent (10,2 per cent at the beginning of

1991) and the youth aged 0–19 accounted for 29,9 per cent.

• From 2006 the number of people over working age (29,4 million people at the begining of

2006) increased by 3,7 million (11,3 per cent) and amounted to 33,1 million at the

beginning of 2013.

• Currently, every eighth Russian, about 13 per cent of the population, is aged 65 years and

older.

• The proportion of over 65-year-olds will amount to 18 per cent by 2025.

• Moderate estimates from the UN: a third of the Russian population (32,8 per cent) will be

older than 60 by 2050; at the same time, the number of 18-year-old men is likely to drop by

50 per cent in the next 15 years.

URBANIZATION One of the most sparsely populated countries



• Russia's population density is 8.4 people per square kilometre (22 per square mile), making

it one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world.

• The population is most dense in the European part of the country, centering around Moscow

(11,5 mln.ppl) and Saint Petersburg (4,9 mln.ppl).

• 73,8% of the population is urban.

• Since 2012 Russia counts 13 cities with the

population over 1 million people.

• 8 metropolitan areas (and 3 upcoming

agglomerations) with the population over

1 million people are formed around cities

with the population under a million people

• 23% of population (32% of urban population)

lives in 18 largest cities (over 700 000 ppl)

MIGRATION 2nd top destination country



• Over the past 13 years Russia received more than 3 million immigrants, 90% of them are

migrants from CIS. Most Immigrants have came from Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and

Uzbekistan.

• 1994 – migration peak - 1,200,000, mostly ethnic Russians from ex-Soviet states fleeing

from social, economic or political reasons.

• In recent years every year 300,000 Immigrants arrive in Russia of which almost half are

Ethnic Russians.

• For the same period 970 thousand people left Russian Federation, 57% of them moved to CIS

countries.

• There are an estimated 4 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states.

• In the 1990s, the first years that followed the breakdown of the USSR, an increase due to

migration was quite substantial, 6.7 per 1000 (1994). To a large extent, this compensated

for a growing negative natural decrease and mitigated the population decrease. Immigration

was the main reason Russia didn't suffer substantial population decline.

MIGRATION Mitigating population decrease



• In 2006, in a bid to compensate for the country's demographic decline, the Russian

government started simplifying immigration laws and launched a state program "for

providing assistance to voluntary immigration of ethnic Russians from former Soviet

republics".

• In August 2012, as the country saw its first demographic growth since the 1990s, President

Putin declared that Russia's population could reach 146 million by 2025, mainly as a result

of immigration.

• The task of attracting migrants in order to meet the needs of the demographic and socio-

economic development includes: facilitating the voluntary resettlement of compatriots

living abroad for permanent residence in the Russian Federation, as well as stimulating the

return of emigrants to the Russian Federation, attracting skilled foreign professionals,

facilitating the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of

tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants.

RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Family and Population Policies



• 1990s: no new initiatives in the area of family policy were put forward. The

government supported a liberal economic model and the actions of the state in

the area of social policy, under the pressure of powerful budget limitations,

came down to reactive measures for ameliorating the most acute problems:

pensions, employment and poverty.

• Attempts to preserve the real value of the packet of family benefits and other

payments for children in conditions of high inflation were timid, delayed and

on the whole unsuccessful.

• Expenditure on family allowance as a percentage of GDP dropped from 2% in

1991 to 0.36% in 2000; family allowance as a percentage of total household

income decreased from 5.6% to 1.2%, respectively, in 2004 – 0.28% and 0.4%.

RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Family and Population Policies



May 2006: President Putin’s budget address to the Federal Assembly : a demographic

theme occupies the central place.

Priorities and solutions to the problem placed in the following order:

• reduction of mortality;

• increase in the attractiveness for immigration to Russia;

• an increase in the birth rate.

2007: main accent placed on the necessity to stimulate the birth rate, new measures

came into force:

• significant increases in the size of the basic forms of benefits, including size of

pregnancy and childbirth benefits, one-off payment at the birth of a child an

additional benefit was paid, determined by the regional administration, monthly

maternity leave benefit;

• introduction of the “maternal capital” - the most notable innovative measure of

the new pro-natalist policy.

MATERNITY CAPITAL



2007: 250,000 roubles ($9,600 or 7,200 Euros at the exchange rate of March 2007)

be paid to a special individual account for mothers who gave birth or adopted a

second child starting in January 2007.

2014: maternity capital reached 429,400 rubles, or 2-year salary of the woman,

Paid once in a mother’s life and may be spent three years after the birth of the child

for one of the following purposes:

• private education for a child of any parity;

• obtaining housing in the Russian Federation;

• formation of the investment part of a pension.

Partial expenditure is allowed per calendar year and in any proportion for the

established purposes.

Subjects of the Federation provide a regional maternity funds financed from their

budgets (up to 350 thousand rubles), in some regions authorized to be used also to

purchase a vehicle, housing repairment or a lump sum payment.

Subjects of the Federation grant land for individual housing construction to families

with three or more children for free.

MATERNITY CAPITAL



• 2007: 250,000 roubles ($9,600 or 7,200 Euros at the exchange rate of March 2007) be

paid to a special individual account for mothers who gave birth or adopted a second

child starting in January 2007.

• 2013: maternity capital increased to 408,960 rubles, or 2-year salary of the woman,

• 2014: maternity capital reached 429,400 rubles.

• Benefit is paid once in a mother’s life and may be spent three years after the birth of

the child, via an account and for one of the following purposes: private education for a

child of any parity; obtaining housing in the Russian Federation; or, the formation of

the investment part of a pension. Partial expenditure of “maternal capital” is allowed

per calendar year and in any proportion for the established purposes.

• 72 subjects of the Federation provide a regional maternity funds financed from their

budgets (up to 350 thousand rubles). Regional maternity funds in some regions are

authorized to be used also to purchase a vehicle, housing repairment or a lump sum

payment.

• 80 subjects of the Federation approved the relevant regulatory acts granting land for

individual housing construction to families with three or more children for free.

THANK YOU!



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