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Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections for Texas
Texas Council on Family‐School EngagementAustin, TX
July 19, 2018
@TexasDemography
Texas is experiencing significant growth.
Growing States, 2000‐2017
3
2000Population
2010Population
2017 Population
NumericChange
2010‐2017
PercentChange
2010‐2017
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,961,073 5.49%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,158,496 12.56%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,135 6.13%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,179,806 11.59%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,429,379 740,689 7.65%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,698 7.74%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,198 10.13%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,016,270 623,961 9.76%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis
Knox
FallsWard
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Nueces
Taylor
Real
Bowie
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Kleberg
Cameron
Cooke
Hardin
Schleicher
Gillespie
Foard
Wood
Menard
La Salle
Rusk
LibertyLee
Mills
Smith
Burnet
Cottle
Zapata
Coryell
Matagorda
Brown
Motley
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
BaylorArcher
Scurry
Tom Green
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Bailey
Deaf Smith
DeWitt
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
BosqueEl Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
CraneConcho
Carson
Runnels
Fayette
Crosby
Borden
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
ShelbySterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
PanolaHoward
Walker
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
HockleyDickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Winkler Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Harrison
Colorado
Eastland
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Loving
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
Montague
Bandera
Cochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComanche
Glasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Wichita
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hood
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
134 - 10,00010,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 4,652,980
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2017
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
91 counties lost population over the 7 year period.
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis
Knox
FallsWard
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Nueces
Taylor
Real
Bowie
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Kleberg
Cameron
Cooke
Hardin
Schleicher
Gillespie
Foard
Wood
Menard
La Salle
Rusk
LibertyLee
Mills
Smith
Burnet
Cottle
Zapata
Coryell
Matagorda
Brown
Motley
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
BaylorArcher
Scurry
Tom Green
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Bailey
Deaf Smith
DeWitt
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
BosqueEl Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
CraneConcho
Carson
Runnels
Fayette
Crosby
Borden
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
ShelbySterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
PanolaHoward
Walker
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
HockleyDickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Winkler Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Harrison
Colorado
Eastland
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Loving
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
Montague
Bandera
Cochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComanche
Glasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Wichita
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hood
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
-2,139 - 01 - 1,0001,001 - 20,00020,001 - 100,000100,001 - 560,521
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2017
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Hardin
Deaf Smith Donley
Goliad
Denton
Fannin
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Harrison
Zapata
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Brooks
Bailey
DeWitt
Lavaca
Hays
Atascosa
BosqueEl Paso
Tarrant
Wharton
CraneConcho
Carson
Runnels
Fayette
Crosby
Borden
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Walker
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Winkler Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Eastland
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Loving
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
Montague
Bandera
Cochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Wichita
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hood
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Camp
Somervell
Rockwall
-33.5% - 0%0.1% - 6%6.1% - 12%12.1% - 24%24.1% - 63.4%
89.5% 86.7%
41.5%
65.9%
49.7% 53.7%
10.5% 13.3%
58.5%
34.1%
50.3% 46.3%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
MigrationNatural Increase
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950‐2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Estimates of percent components of population change, Texas, 2011‐2017
53.2% 48.4% 51.6%45.2% 43.0% 47.1%
52.5%
17.6%17.8%
20.7%
20.3% 22.1%24.9%
27.7%
29.3% 33.7%27.7%
34.5% 34.9%28.0%
19.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net DomesticMigration
NetInternationalMigration
Natural Increase
8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage population estimates
CountyU.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change
Percent of Change from
Natural Increase
Percent Changefrom Domestic
Migration
Percent Change from
International Migration
Harris* 4 35,939 128.8% ‐126.0% 97.2%Tarrant 5 32,729 47.9% 29.0% 23.1%Bexar 7 30,831 47.8% 33.4% 18.8%Dallas 8 30,686 78.0% ‐25.5% 47.6%Denton 9 27,911 23.3% 67.0% 9.7%Collin 10 27,150 24.4% 56.5% 19.0%Fort Bend 14 22,870 29.4% 48.1% 22.6%Travis 15 22,116 47.9% 22.1% 30.0%Williamson 19 19,776 20.1% 73.5% 6.3%Montgomery 28 16,412 22.7% 68.5% 8.8%Hidalgo* 49 10,474 105.9% ‐34.5% 28.5%
*Hidalgo and Harris Counties had negative net migration (Harris ‐10,322 and Hidalgo ‐621).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016‐2017
Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2016‐2017
County U.S. Rank
2016‐2017Percent
Population Change
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from
InternationalMigration
Comal 2 5.1% 90.7% 1.9%Hays 4 5.0% 81.6% 2.8%Kendall 5 4.9% 96.3% 3.3%Kaufman 11 4.1% 83.0% 2.2%Rains 13 4.0% 103.1% 2.9%Williamson 16 3.7% 73.5% 6.3%Rockwall 22 3.6% 81.8% 2.4%Parker 26 3.6% 89.7% 1.3%Denton 32 3.5% 67.0% 9.7%Guadalupe 36 3.3% 81.4% 2.7%Ellis 44 3.1% 78.2% 3.0%Llano 45 3.1% 119.8% 0.5%Fort Bend 48 3.1% 48.1% 22.6%
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2017Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
‐3.4% ‐2.9% ‐2.9% ‐2.8% ‐2.5%
‐0.3% ‐0.1%
4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1%5.9%
7.1%
9.5%10.4%
13.2%
22.1%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Estimated Percent of Total Net‐Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015
Texas continues to diversify.
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates 11
NH White, 53%
NH Black, 11%
NH Asian, 3%
NH Other, 1%
Hispanic, 32%
2000
NH White, 45%
NH Black, 12%
NH Asian, 4%
NH Other, 2%
Hispanic, 38%
2010
White, NH42%
Black, NH12%
Asian, NH5%
Two or More Races,
NH1%
Hispanic39%
2017
Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH OtherTEXAS 43.0% 11.8% 38.8% 4.6% 1.8%Denton County 60.9% 9.3% 19.2% 8.0% 2.6%
Collin County 59.4% 9.4% 15.2% 13.4% 2.7%
Travis County 49.5% 8.0% 33.9% 6.4% 2.1%
Tarrant County 48.6% 15.6% 28.2% 5.3% 2.4%
Fort Bend County 34.6% 20.1% 24.1% 19.2% 1.9%
Harris County 31.0% 18.5% 42.0% 7.0% 1.6%
Dallas County 30.6% 22.3% 39.5% 6.0% 1.6%
Bexar County 28.7% 7.3% 59.5% 2.7% 1.7%
El Paso County 13.1% 3.2% 81.3% 1.2% 1.2%
Hidalgo County 7.0% 0.5% 91.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates 12
Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non‐Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010
15
16
Annual Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005‐2015
69.4%
66.8%
61.0%
57.0%
59.0%
50.6%
57.4%
50.9%
42.9%
48.6%
44.1%
17.3%
19.9%
22.4%
28.2%
26.8%
33.0%
25.5%
34.3%
40.4%
33.6%
35.8%
7.8%
5.7%
6.2%
7.8%
7.7%
7.3%
9.9%
7.1%
9.0%
8.3%
7.1%
5.5%
7.6%
10.4%
7.0%
6.5%
9.1%
7.2%
7.8%
7.8%
9.5%
13.1%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS
Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015
17
Texas is young, but aging.Texas Children
Estimated Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010 through 2017
19Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Under 5 5 to 13 years 14 to 17 years
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20
57.4%
42.6%
68.4%
31.6%
43.5%
56.5% 54.4%
45.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Non‐White White Non‐White White
Under 18 18 and Over
2000
Percent White and Non‐White by Age Group, Texas, 2000 and 2017
2017
Child Well‐Being in Texas
• Texas ranked 43rd in latest national rankings of child well‐being.
• 35th in economic well‐being• 1.6 million (22%) Texas children live in poverty.
• 32nd in education• 469,000 (58%) of 3 and 4 year‐olds not enrolled in school, with Hispanics having the highest rate (63%) (ACS 2012‐2016)
• 47th in family and community• Nearly 2.5 million (35%) Texas children live in single‐parent families.
• 41st in health• 671,000 (9%) Texas children are uninsured. Tied for second lowest child health insurance rate in the country.
21Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book
Child Well‐Being in Texas
• 2.4 million (34%) Texas children live in immigrant families
• 90% of these children are U.S. citizens
• 2.07 million (28%) Texas children live in families receiving public assistance
22Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book
Teen (ages 15 to 19 years) Birth Rates, U.S. and Top 15 States, 2016
State Rank Birth Rate per 1,000 Women
United States 20.3Arkansas 1 34.6Oklahoma 2 33.4Mississippi 3 32.6Texas 4 31.0Kentucky 5 30.9Louisiana 6 30.6New Mexico 7 29.8West Virginia 8 29.3Alabama 9 28.4Tennessee 10 28.0Wyoming 11 26.1Alaska 12 25.8South Dakota 13 25.1Nevada 14 24.2District of Columbia 15 24.0
23Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2016
# of Teen Births 29,765
Change in Teen Birth RateFrom 2015 ‐10%From peak year, 1991 ‐60%
Repeat Teen BirthsNumber 5,748Percent 19%
# of Teen Births by Race/EthnicityNH White 6,007NH Black 3,825Hispanic 19,604Asian/Pacific Islander 187
2015
Teen Birth Rate by Race/EthnicityNH White 20.9NH Black 34.3Hispanic 47.6
Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016
24Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-Year Estimates
Menard
Hale
Armstrong
Calhoun
Clay
Orange
Gonzales
Fannin
Kerr
Refugio
JimHogg
Dimmit
Nolan
Brazos
Jefferson
Bell
Bandera
Hidalgo
Schleicher
GraysonCrosbyDelta
Zavala
Rockwall
Eastland
DeWitt
Angelina
McLennan
Lamar
Leon
Stonewall
McMullen
Sutton
FortBend
Parker
Kinney
Fayette
Briscoe
Harrison
Reagan
Coleman
Ochiltree
Crane
Washington
Lynn
Mills
Oldham
Sabine
Hopkins
Houston
Bexar
Upton
Erath
Randall
Rusk
Coryell
Comal
Aransas
Jack
Hemphill
Shackelford
San Jacinto
Kendall
Wharton
Floyd
Karnes
Kaufman
Duval
Johnson
Franklin
EdwardsWaller
Maverick
Kleberg
Gaines
Martin
Bowie
Andrews
Potter
Garza
Caldwell
Parmer
TitusTerry
Foard
Real
Carson
Knox
Hays
Medina
MotleyWichita
Midland
Victoria
Tyler
Falls
Presidio
Willacy
Lubbock
Henderson
Walker
Galveston
Harris
Dawson
Pecos
Nacogdoches
Guadalupe
Tarrant
Jackson
Swisher
SterlingWinkler
Frio
Lipscomb
Collingsworth
Colorado
Wise
Glasscock ShelbyComanche
Burnet
Gray
Hudspeth
Cass
Ellis
Cooke
Williamson
Cochran
VanZandt
Donley
Jones
Grimes
Irion
Navarro
Brooks
Dallam
Hunt
Mitchell
Wood
Childress
Jeff Davis
Montague
Brown
Haskell
Fisher
Concho
Coke
Polk
Cottle
Young
Lee
Cherokee
Hall
Hood
ArcherBaylor
San Augustine
Madison
Milam
Reeves
Nueces
Camp
FreestoneRunnels
Terrell
Deaf Smith
Marion
Liberty
Jasper
Hansford
Chambers
Hardin
Collin
Brazoria
Throckmorton
Bastrop
Scurry
Ector
Limestone
Denton
RedRiver
Matagorda
Hardeman
PaloPinto
LiveOak
Sherman
Uvalde
Bailey
Culberson
Atascosa
Wilson
Starr
Dallas
Kimble
McCulloch
Crockett
Hill
Kent
El PasoLoving
Dickens
La Salle
Lamb
Austin
Hutchinson
Val Verde
Smith
Robertson
Gillespie
King
TomGreen
Yoakum
Somervell
Kenedy
Borden
SanSaba
Burleson
Bee
Trinity
Castro
Brewster
Gregg
Ward
Wilbarger
Hamilton
Stephens
Lavaca
Bosque
Goliad
Roberts
Callahan
RainsMorris
Lampasas
Upshur
Wheeler
San Patricio
Moore
Webb
Blanco
Newton
Hockley
Panola
Anderson
Cameron
Montgomery
LlanoMason
Taylor
Hartley
JimWells
Zapata
Travis
Howard
Less than $25k
$25,000.00 - $34,999.99
$35,000.00 - $49,999.99
$50,000.00 - $74,999.99
$75k or greater
Estimated number of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
MillsFalls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
25
0 - 5,000
5,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 75,000
75,001 - 150,000
150,001 - 309,991
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
Percent of children living in poverty and enrolled in Pre‐K through 12, Texas Counties, 2011‐2015
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
26
0% - 20%
20.1% - 30%
30.1% - 40%
40.1% - 50%
50.1% - 76.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2011‐2015
Estimated number of children ages 5‐17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
Mills
Falls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
0 - 2,500
2,501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 391,754
Household Language in Limited English Speaking Households:
Spanish 84.9%Vietnamese 3.2%Chinese 3.0%Other Indo‐European 2.2%Other Asian 1.9%Other languages 1.2%Arabic 1.0%Korean 0.8%French 0.6%Russian 0.6%
Estimated percent of children ages 5‐17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
28Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
Mills
Falls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
0% - 10%
10.1% - 25%
25.1% - 50%
50.1% - 75%
75.1% - 93.3%
29
Education in Texas
21.6% 19.4% 17.1%
26.9%25.4%
25.2%
25.6%28.3%
28.9%
17.1% 17.7% 18.9%
8.9% 9.2% 10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2011 2016
Graduate or Professional Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Some College or Associate's Degree
High School or Equivalency
Less than High School
Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2007, 2011, and 2016
30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Samples, 2007‐2016. * Years significantly different p<.05
42.3%
57.8%51.6%
48.5%
2011 2016Percent high school graduate or higher 81.1% 82.9% *
Percent bachelor's degree or higher 26.4% 28.9% *
31
Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Sample, 2016
Educational Attainment,
2016
NH White Hispanic Black Alone Asian Alone
Number % Number % Number % Number %
High School Diploma or greater
7,973,248 93.4 3,909,892 64.9 1,868,624 89.1 773,543 87.6
Bachelor’s Degree or greater
3,209,090 37.6 855,442 14.2 485,127 23.1 500,722 56.7
Trends in Latino Education in the U.S.
• Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped.
• College enrollment among Hispanics is increased.• There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree.
• Hispanic college students attend public 2‐year schools at higher rates than other groups.
• Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt. Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life.
32Source: Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009
Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2014 and 2014‐2008 Difference
9.3%
4.4% 4.4%
7.7%
3.9%
12.3%
9.9%
4.7%5.3%
6.8%
3.5%
12.0%
0.5% 0.3%0.9%
‐0.9% ‐0.4% ‐0.3%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2008 2014 Difference 2014‐2008
33Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014`
Median Household Income
Change,2015‐2016
Texas $56,565 +
Asian $82,081 +
NH White $70,131 +
Hispanic $44,579 +
Black $42,582 +
Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016
• Unemployment rate • Texas = 5.6% • U.S. = 5.8%
• Median Household Income • Texas = $56,565 • U.S. = $57,617
• Median Family Income • Texas = $67,025 • U.S. = 71,062
• Median earnings for males working full time • Texas = $47,351 • U.S. = $50,586
• Median earnings for females working full time • Texas = $37,576• U.S. = $40,626
• Poverty rate• Texas = 15.6% • U.S. = 14.0%
34Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
Population Projections
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Millions
Zero Net Migration
Half 2000 ‐2010
2000 ‐2010
2010 ‐2015
Estimates
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2020
36Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections
Projected Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
5,935
2,463 2,259
860 1,046
3,488
8,016
435
1,714
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Thou
sand
s
NH White Total .5 NH Black Total .5 Hispanic Total .5 NH Other Total .5
NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Other Total
37Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections
Projected change in total population aged 0‐18 years, Texas counties, 2010‐2030
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
38Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections, 2000‐2010 migration scenario.
-587 - -250
-249 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 264,709
Projected percent change in total population aged 0‐18 years, Texas counties, 2010‐2030
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
39Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections, 2000‐2010 migration scenario.
-100% - -10%
-9.9% - 0%
0.1% - 20%
20.1% - 40%
40.1% - 137.4%
Projected Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Other Total
40Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections
Projected Percent of Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Other Total
41Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections
43
44
In Summary
• Texas is growing fast and by a lot, 50% from natural increase.• Urban core growing the most and suburban ring counties growing the fastest.
• Many rural counties continue to lose population.• Population growth driven by younger Latinos.• Some improvements have been made, but there is still room for improvement in indicators of child well‐being in Texas.
• Substantial divide between Hispanics and other race/ethnic groups in socio‐economic characteristics.
• Trends in educational attainment suggest increasing percent of labor force aged population has post‐secondary education.
• Demographic characteristics of Texas associated with hard to count indicators critical to a complete count in 2020.
45
