demographic trends - colorado school finance project · top 5 counties for population growth...
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Elizabeth [email protected] Demography Officewww.colordo.gov/demography
Demographic Trends:Understanding the impact of a changing population on Colorado
Rural ConsortiumJune 2011
State Demography Office• State Agency
– Responsible for population data needed by state agencies and local governments.
• Department of Local Affairs– Prepares data and information in ways that account
for local perspectives, needs.• Public Information
– Makes data and information readily available to the public, including citizens, businesses and non-profit agencies.
• Outreach– Work with local governments and others to
understand what the numbers are saying
2010
Top 5 Counties for Population Growth
Population Change 2000-2010Percent Total
Colorado 16.92% Colorado 727,935Douglas 62.41% Douglas 109,699Weld 39.73% El Paso 105,334Garfield 28.77% Arapahoe 84,036Mesa 26.21% Adams 77,746Eagle 25.30% Weld 71,889Source: Census 2010
Change in the Population Under 18Growth DeclineDouglas 31,535 Otero -798Adams 22,167 Prowers -941El Paso 20,196 Fremont -1,293Weld 19,368 Boulder -4,083Arapahoe 16,970 Jefferson -14,396
Douglas 56.8% Sedgwick -26.4%Weld 38.0% Huerfano -27.9%Eagle 30.8% Cheyenne -29.9%Garfield 28.1% Jackson -35.5%San Miguel 24.4% Mineral -40.6%Source: Census 2010
Population Change Under 18 years
Growth DeclineColorado Springs city 55,537 Wheat Ridge city -2,747Aurora city 48,685 Englewood city -1,472Denver city 45,522 Lakewood city -1,146Thornton city 36,388 Walsenburg city -1,114Castle Rock town 28,007 Lamar city -1,065
Firestone town 431.81% South Fork town -36.09%Severance town 430.15% Garden City town -34.45%Frederick town 251.80% Genoa town -34.12%Erie town 188.27% Campo town -27.33%Monument town 180.57% Hartman town -27.03%Source: Census 2010
Population Change by Municipality 2000-10
Municipal Population Change
Families and Households
•Family households grew at a slower rate than non-family households.
•Households with children also grew slower where their share of all households dropped from 32% to 30%.
•Families with children with both parents living together fell from 75% of all households with children to 72% with a growing share of single parent households.
•The largest growth of households has been of the non-family households growing at 24% vs16% for family households.
9
Population by Race and EthnicityUS Census
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1990 2000 2010
Am. Ind. & Alaska NativeOther RaceTwo or More RacesAsian/ Pacific IslanderBlack/ African AmericanHispanicWhite
Growth in Hispanic Population 2000-2010
Source: Census 2010
Hispanic Share of Total Population
Colorado Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity and Age2000-2010
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Hispanic White non Hispanic Other Minority Total
Under 18Over 18
Source: Census 2010
Hispanic Population Change 303,086 and 41.2%Top 5 CountiesTotal Change Percentage ChangeAdams 65,293 Routt 152.37% 966Arapahoe 47,910 Douglas 140.74% 12,506El Paso 35,264 Custer 127.27% 112Jefferson 23,996 Rio Blanco 124.66% 369Weld 22,745 Garfield 118.88% 8,678
Population Change by Ethnicity
Source: Census Bureau
Colorado Minority Share of Total Population By Age GroupState Demography Office Forecasts
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total
2010 2040
Trends we’re watching
• Relationship of jobs, people and community services.
• Aging of the “Baby Boomers”• Household formation• Income distribution• Increasing racial and ethnic diversity• Changes in occupational mix
Population by Sub-State Area
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
EASTERN PLAINS SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTRAL MTNS. WESTERN SLOPE FRONT RANGE
7.1 million
5.03 million
Source: State Demography Office
Source: State Demography Office
Colorado Population Change
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
Net MigrationNatural increase
Components of Population Change
Natural Increase vs. Net Migration• 46% of Colorado’s population change from net
migration (64% natural increase)• West Slope – 61% migration (+ 89,312)
– Region 12 (rural resort) 18% (+15,201)– Mesa – 82% (+30,286)
• Central Mountains – mixed– Upper Arkansas – 102% migration– Clear Creek and Gilpin – net out migration
• SLV – equal between NM and NI (-242)• Eastern Plains
– NE – 3% net migration (+2,905)– CE – 47% - net migration (+ 2,428)– SE - - Net out migration - 4K (-3,159)
Baby Boomers – Major Demographic Impact to Colorado
• Born 1946 – 1964 (between 47-65 years old) • Between 2000 and 2010, Colorado’s
population 55 – 64 increased by an annual average of 6.1% from 338,000 to 619,000 compared to the total population of 1.7%
• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 150% larger than it was 2010 growing from 540,000 to 1,350,000. (just from aging)
• Colorado Population over 65 was 330K in 1990
Colorado Population By Age
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age
1990 2010 2030
Colorado Population by Age, 1990, 2010and 2030
Source: State Demography Office
Regional differences
Percent of the Population 65+
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
State ofColorado
Front Range Western Slope CentralMountains
Eastern Plains San LuisValley
2010 2020 2030 2040Source: State Demography Office
Household Income
• Colorado Real Median HH Income fell between 2000-2009 by $4,500 (7.5%). US median HH Income fell by $2,600 (4.9%)
• Age distributions– An increase at the young or older end will cause
median HH Inc. to fall.• Household type
– Single person households– Smaller household size
State Demography Office
Household Income
• Race/ethnicity of householder• Occupational Mix• Educational attainment• Growing poverty and income inequality.• Youth unemployment – long term
permanent impact on earnings.
Conclusions
• Population change throughout state is varied.
• Household types changing. Slower growth for families and children.
• Racial/Ethnic diversity increasing at the young end and rural areas.
• The aging of the “baby boomers” will greatly impact our concept of retirement and aging.
• Income inequality and declining MHI
Thank you!
www.colorado.gov/demography
Elizabeth GarnerState Demography Office
Department of Local [email protected]
303-866-3096
Colorado Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity by AgeAmerican Community Survey 2005-09
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+Age of Householder
Inco
me
White,non HispanicHispanicBlackAm. IndianAsian/PI
Aged Dependency Ratio Pop 65+ per person 18-64
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
State ofColorado
Front Range WesternSlope
EasternPlains
San LuisValley
CentralMountains
2010 2040
Source: State Demography Office