demographics and china's new normal

8/9/2019 Demographics and China's New Normal

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Demographics andChinas New Normal

Wang Feng

November 17, 2014


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Chinas New Normal:


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Challenges o' a $lower (row"h

)ra

China is coming to an end with its

hyper economic growth, with

growth rate dropping from over

10% to below 8% in the last fewyears

Government revenue, which was

growing at a rate almost twice of

the economy, has shown an even

more precipitous drop

Slow growth in economy and

especially government revenue

could pose further challenges to

social welfare programs and public

transfer


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(ason and !ang "00#$

*he Demographic Fac"or:Congr&ence o' *wo +ooms


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)conomic (row"hdemographic dividend: divergen" pa"hs-

(ason and !ang "00#, !ang and ason "008$


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. New Demographic )ra .ge. New Demographic )ra .ge

$"r&c"&re, 1/2, 2010, 2040-$"r&c"&re, 1/2, 2010, 2040-

#


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!"#! $

&' #&"

( %

!%

) %

' %

*%

&( %

&! %&) %

&' %

&*%

&( #( ( %

&! #( ( %

&) #( ( %

&' #( ( %

&*#( ( %

! ( #( ( %

! ! #( ( %! ) #( ( %

! ' #( ( %

! *#( ( %

&$*& &$*) &$*+ &$$( &$$, &$$' &$$$ !( ( ! ! ( ( " ! ( ( *

!"#$%&'"(%)'*+)"'%,-(./0'

12"%&-'*32442#.0'

5)("'

- . / 012%34%562789 : 23; 78%


9/26ooing ahead: 3ear (D5

G& per capita when population aged ') reach *%, in 1**0 +nternational Geary

-hamis dollar. Source/ addison "010.


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(row"h %a"e a'"er 206


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ooing ahead: op&la"ion .gingwhen (D5 %eached 206 o' 8$

evel




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Demographic $"ar"ing ines:.ging a'"er %eaching iddle@ncome $"a"&s

ear reaching iddle +ncome Status/ 2apan 1*'0, 3aiwan 1*#, S. -orea 1*80, China "00'

0.00##

2.00##

4.00##

6.00##

8.00##

10.00##

12.00##

14.00##

16.00##

0 1 2#3 4#5 6#7 8 9#10#11 12 13#14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Jaa

.#a

a

aa#


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*aiwans Decades o' $low (row"h

4ast time growth rate over '% was 1*8*, ')% at '%.


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;apans Decades o' $"agna"ion

0.00##

5.00##

10.00##

15.00##

20.00##

25.00##

'0.10#

'0.05#

0.00#

0.05#

0.10#

0.15#

1962# 1967# 1972# 1977# 1982# 1987# 1992# 1997# 2002# 2007#

Popula'on)Aging)

onoi)o)

-# #65+#

4ast time growth rate at 8% was 1*#5, ')% at #.%. 6nly one year since then G&

growth was above '%. 2apan7s %') in 1**0/ 1"%, China will reach this level by "01*.


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$A =oreas *raBec"or#

0.00%$

2.00%$

4.00%$

6.00%$

8.00%$

10.00%$

12.00%$

*8.00%$

*6.00%$*4.00%$

*2.00%$

0.00%$

2.00%$

4.00%$

6.00%$

8.00%$

10.00%$

12.00%$

1980$1983$1986$1989$1992$1995$1998$2001$2004$2007$

Aging

P

-$ $65+$


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Wh# $ho&ld ow Fer"ili"#5.ginga""er

abor 'orce row"h


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Changing abor $&ppl#

Total size(20!9"rea#hes aplateau$ moderate

in#rease in thene%t 10 years

&oun' labor (202" rea#hed peak

and will de#lineby nearly 20) inthe ne%t one and1*+ in the ne%ttwo de#ades


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ace o' .ging, $elec"ed Co&n"ries


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ld be'ore %ich, China and i"sNeighbors




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! "! #

$"! #

%"!#

&"! #

' "!#

( "! #

) "! #

*"! #

+"! #

%! ! ! %! $! # %! %! %! &! # %! ' ! %! ( !#

, -. /01 23440. 5670. 8906.

Declining $&ppor" %a"ioN&mber o' woring persons per 90, China ando"her +%@C economies-


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Fragile Familiesshare o' women aged


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Changes in Ca&ses o' Dea"h, 1//0!2011


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New $o&rces o' (row"h: Chinas*hree 8rbaniEa"ions

! "#"$%

' ! #( ) %

!"#$*%

( *#**%&

+*#**%&

' *#** %&

! *#**%&

$*#**%&

, *#** %&

) *#**%&

. / 012/ 34&56789: ; 63


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New $o&rces o' (row"h: igher)d&ca"ion )Gpansion6 college ed&ca"ed and above-


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(row"h in "he las" "hir"# #ears has been basedon a heavil# ph#sical capi"al and labor in"ensive

model @n"ernal cons"rain"s cos"s-: reso&rces,

environmen", and ineH&ali"# )G"ernal cons"rain"s: eGpor" mare", reso&rces . new model reH&ires grow"h o' domes"ic

cons&mp"ion and mare" and a cleaner

econom# "ha" is based on h&man capi"al

deepening .ging pop&la"ion: labor, cons&mp"ion, savings

and governmen" spending

demographics and china's new normal

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