demographics and supply of ontario physicians

Who are you?Oh, I really wanna knowSupply & Demographics of Ontario

Physicians

Boris Kralj, PhDExecutive Director, Economics, Research & Analytics

and Chief Analytics Officer

© Presentation to OMSA, Toronto, December 5, 2015

Disclaimer

The statements contained in this document are solely

those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

views or policies of the Ontario Medical Association. The

author assumes responsibility for the accuracy and

completeness of the information contained in this

document.

Any opinions expressed are the personal views of the

presenter.

Physician Age & Gender Distribution, 1997

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

25-26

27-28

29-30

31-32

33-34

35-36

37-38

39-40

41-42

43-44

45-46

47-48

49-50

51-52

53-54

55-56

57-58

59-60

61-62

63-64

65-66

67-68

69-70

71-72

73-74

75-76

77-78

79-80

81-82

83+

G.I. Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Generation Y

Male Female

OMA Economics, Research and Analytics

Physician Age & Gender Distribution, 2014

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

25-26

27-28

29-30

31-32

33-34

35-36

37-38

39-40

41-42

43-44

45-46

47-48

49-50

51-52

53-54

55-56

57-58

59-60

61-62

63-64

65-66

67-68

69-70

71-72

73-74

75-76

77-78

79-80

81-82

83+

G.I. Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Generation Y

Male Female


Ontario Physician Age Distribution,1997 & 2014


First Year Enrollment in Ontario Medical School

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

Enrollment

10% Cut

In the past decade, enrollment has nearly doubled


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1970/71

1971/72

1972/73

1973/74

1974/75

1975/76

1976/77

1977/78

1978/79

1979/80

1980/81

1981/82

1982/83

1983/84

1984/85

1985/86

1986/87

1987/88

1988/89

1989/90

1990/91

1991/92

1992/93

1993/94

1994/95

1995/96

1996/97

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Toronto

Western

McMaster

Queens

Ottawa

NOSM

10% cut


First Year Enrollment in Ontario Medical School

Postgraduate Trainees in Ontario

1010 1069 1159 1206 1265 1302 1326 1366 1513 1614 1688

30553229

34653732

39204165

43954583

47604914

5005

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Fellows Residents


Percent of Ont Post-MD Trainees located in Ontario,

3 & 5 Years Later

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2011

3 Year 5 Year

Pe

r Cent


Net Inter-Provincial Migration to Ontario (No. of MDs)

120

82

2

61

25

-14

-49

1518

110

36

7

-3

53

33

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# o

f M

Ds


Net International Migration to Ontario (No. of MDs)

-26

-105

-80

1

20

0

-14

511

64

27

43

3228

15

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# o

f M

Ds


Net Total Migration to Ontario (No. of MDs)

94

-23

-78

62

45

-14

-63

2029

174

63

50

29

81

48

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# o

f M

Ds


Total Ontario Physician Supply, 1992-2014

18,67718,824

19,392

19,81020,053 20,133

20,26520,480

20,370

20,689

21,056

21,472

21,793

22,277

22,725

23,266

23,767

24,358

24,875

25,480

26,382

27,125

28,087

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

# o

f M

Ds


Active Physicians by FM & Spec and Year


Annual % Growth in Ontario MD Supply, 1993-2014

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% C

hange in M

Ds


Annual Ontario Population Growth

1.2% 1.2%

1.3%1.2% 1.2%

1.6%

1.8%

1.6%

1.2%1.2%

1.1%1.1%

0.8%

0.9% 0.9%

1.1%1.0%

1.1%1.1%

0.9%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Perc

enta

ge G

row

th


Physicians per 100,000 Population: Ontario, 1995-2014

185

181179 179 179 180 179 179

177 177 177174

176177

187188

196

203

209

214

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year


Net Additions to Ontario MD Supply, by Year

147

568

418

243

80

132

215

-110

319

367

416

321

484

448

541

501

591

517

605

902

745

962

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


Net Additions by Specialty Group, by Year


Active Physicians in 1998 and 2014, by LHIN


Female Physicians as a Share of Total Physicians:

Ontario, 1995-2014

29.6%

45.8%

20.6%

33.5%

24.9%

38.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

GPs Specialist All MDs


Gender distribution by FM & Spec and Year


Active Ontario Physicians – By Year & Graduation Source

vs. Ratio of Ontario Grads to IMGs


Active MDs: Ontario School Graduates, by LHIN, 2014


Active MDs: Canadian School Graduates, by LHIN, 2014


Active MDs: International School Graduates, by LHIN, 2014


Active MDs: International Graduates by Top 5 Schools,

by LHIN, 2014


Age Distribution of Selected Specialities (2014)

Selected SpecialtyNumber of

MDs

Average

AgeMedian

25th

percentile

75th

percentile

Emergency Medicine 499 44.2 42 37 50

Psychiatry 2,325 54.3 55 44 63

Family Practice 13,134 50.1 50 40 59

Overall 28,087 50.5 50 41 60



Age Distribution by Specialty, 2014

Average Number of Visits per MD, by MD Age

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

Vis

its

per

MD

MD Age (yrs)

1994 2005 2012

‘Balanced Lifestyle’ for

new generation of MDs?


Average Number of Visits per MD, by MD Age and Sex

1994 vs 2012

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

Vis

its

per

MD

MD Age (yrs)

Female1994 Female2012

Male2012 Male1994


Population per MD Ratio: 1995-2014

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ONTARIO Pop per MD

CANADA Pop per MD


Taper?

First Year Enrollment – Taper?

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050


Questions/Discussion

Email: [email protected] | @BorisKraljPhD

demographics and supply of ontario physicians

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