demographics: global implications for economic growth and investment
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Richard Hokenson's presentation at the 30th Annual Monetary & Trade ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
Demographics: Global Implications for Economic Growth and
Investment
30th Annual Monetary & Trade Conference
Drexel University Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Richard F. Hokenson
April 24 ,2012
The Speed of Aging: Developed Countries
Number of Years for Percent of Population 65+ to rise
from 7 to 14 percent
26454547
5365
6973
85115
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Japan (1970-1996)
Spain (1947-1992)U.K. (1930-1975)
Poland (1966-2013)
Hungary (1941-1994)Canada (1944-2009)
U.S. (1944-2013)Australia (1938-
Sw eden (1890-1975)
France (1865-1980)
Speed of Aging: Developing Countries
Number of Years for Percent of Population 65+ to rise
from 7 to 14 percent
202122232324252727
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Colombia (2017-2037)
Brazil (2011-2032)
Thailand (2003-2025)
Tunisia (2009-2032)
Sri Lanka (2004-2027)
Jamaica (2009-2033)
Chile (2000-2025)
Singapore (2001-
China (2000-2027)
United Nations – Total Fertility Rate by Development Status
The United Nations Forecast through the year 2100
Total Population in Billions Annual Percent Change
2050 Population as a Multiple of 2010
No data 0.7 < 1.0 1.0 < 1.3 1.3 < 1.9 1.9 < 3.4
Source: Population Reference Bureau 2011 World Population Data Sheet; Hokenson & Company.
Demographics and
Destiny
Maximum Effective Capital Gains Tax Rate versus Percentage of Young Taxpayers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Perc
en
t
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Tax Rate
% Young
Source: U.S. Treasury; Hokenson & Company
The Era of Low Interest Rates has only just begun
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP
U.S. Current Dollar GDP (Year-ago Change (bars) and Smoothed 10-Year Change (line))
U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Labor Force
U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Forecasted Labor Force
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Historical and Forecasted Growth in Current Dollar GDP
Population Trends in
The Developed World
15
The Developed World Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
16
Japan and Europe
17
18
Western Europe Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
Europe – Countries above or below average median age 1960 vs 2060
Aging in the European Union
E.U. & Candidates Aged Dependency Ratios(population 65+ as a percent of 15 to 64)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Sources: US Census Bureau, International Data Base; Hokenson & Company
EU EU + Candidates EU + Candidates ex Turkey
21
The American “Exception”
22
Total Fertility Rate for Selected Regions and Countries: 2010
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
United
States
Western
Europe
East
Europe
Japan Russia China
Source: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
Legal Immigration
23
US: Number of Live Births in Millions
24
Annual Household Formations and Housing Completions
25
Percent Reaching Stated Anniversary by Marriage Cohort for Women's First Marriages: 2009
26
US versus Eurozone
27
28
Social (In)Security?
29
United States: Population in Millions (2010)
30
United States: Population in Millions (2050)
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
MaleFemale
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
Brazil Russia
India China
Russian Federation: Life Expectancy at Birth
Russian Federation : Number of Entry-Level Workers
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
ns
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
China Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
China: Population of Working Age
35
The Aging Index: China versus the US
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ratio USA
China
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
India Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
India: Number of Entry-Level Workers
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
ns
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
Brazil Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Brazil : Number of Entry-Level Workers
41
Important Changes in the
Financial Arrangements of
Households
U.S. Households with more MONEY than TIME (Number of U.S. Families with Two or More Earners)
U.S. Households with more TIME than MONEY (Number of U.S. Families with One Earner)
45
Suggested Readings and References
Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare by Richard Easterlin
The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fisher
The Feminine Mystique by Betty Friedan
The Age of Discontinuity by Peter Drucker
Population and Development Review
Richard F. Hokenson
(609) 516-7780