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DEMOGRAPHY

Dr. Vineetha K.Department of public health dentistry

BASIC PRINCIPLES

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CONTENTS

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POPULATION GROWTH CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH

FUNCTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION

IBN KHALDUNJOHN GRAUNT

EDMUND HALLEYJOHN SNOW

HISTORY

MALTHUSIANMARXIAN

OPTIMUM POPULATIONDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

THEORIES

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES CYCLEMODEL

INDIA IN NUMBERS

-POPULATION STATISTICS-VITAL STATISTICS

DEMOGRAPHICINDICATORS

POPULATION TRENDS

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TIMELINE• Few million years ago 10 MILLION• 8000 BC 500 MILLION• 1800 1 BILLION• 1930 2 BILLION• 1975 4 BILLION• 1999 6 BILLION• 2011 7 BILLIONFUTURE POPULATION PROJECTION• 2030 9.5 BILLION• 2100 12.6 BILLION

Population growth – an epidemic of homo sapiens

Population Reference Beaureu

INTRODUCTION

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CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM

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DEMOGRAPHYDemos – People Graphy - Measurement

Scientific study of human population

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FUNCTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHY

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HISTORYIBN KHALDUN (1332-1406)• Father of demography

Economic analysis of social organization which produce the first scientific and theoretical work on population, development and group dynamics

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JOHN GRAUNTCredited for producing the first life table, giving probabilities of survival to each age.

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EDMUND HAILLEY• Halley developed life table based on sound

demographic data and discussed several applications of his life table including calculations of life contingencies.

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LONDON CHOLERA MAP - JOHN SNOW

He plotted every death on a map with Ingenious mapped bar charts and was able to show that The closer to the broad street the water pump he plotted, the greater the no of deaths

This information helped convince the public a true sewage system was needed and spurred the city into action

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THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH AND DECLINE

•Malthusian theory•Marxian theory•Optimum population theory• The demographic transition theory

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MALTHUSIAN THEORY

• Thomas malthus (1766-1834) thoerized pessimistically that population was uncontrollable

• Population when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio (exponentially) Substinence increases only in an arithmetic ratio (linearly)

Overpopulation and Massive Poverty

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MARXIAN THEORY

• KARL MARX believed that the problem was not primarily one of the population but one of the ownership of the means of production and the inequitable distribution of the societies wealth.

• Marx felt that population could ultimately be controlled by the complex workings of market economics and that the economic markets, as they expanded, would be able to sustain population at whatever level it had reached.

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OPTIMUM POPULATION THEORY

Population must grow up to certain desired level after which further growth is

harmful.

By CANAN

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

1. High birth rate and high death rate

2. High birth rate and low death rate (population explosion)

3. Low birth rate and low death rate

Industrial and commercial development first cuts the death rate but creates a desire for smaller families and eventually cuts the birth rate.

-Proposed by F. Notestein

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To describe population dynamics is the Demographic Transition Cycle and Model.

o First stage - High stationary

o Second stage - Early expanding

o Third stage - Late expanding

o Fourth stage - Low stationary

o Fifth stage - Declining

HIGH STATIONA

RY

EARLYEXPANDIN

G

LATEEXPANDIN

G

LOW STATIONA

RY

DECLINING

by C.P Blacker

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DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE5 STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHI CYCLE

STAGE BR DR EXAMPLES

Stage HIGH India was in this 1 STATIONARY stage till 1920Stage EARLY South Asia & Africa 2 EXPANDINGStage LATE India, China 3 EXPANDING SingaporeStage LOW UK, Denmark, Sweden 4 STATIONARY BelgiumStage DECLINING Germany & Hungary 5

INDIA 1920 High stationaryINDIA PRESENT Late expanding

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODELThe model of demographic transition suggested that a population's mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social and economic development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through four demographic transition stages.

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POPULATION MOMENTUM Population growth at the national level that

would occur even if levels of childbearing immediately declined to replacement level.

CAUSE – due to weighting of age structure towards the young

Once the older generation dies, the population will start shrinking

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES :

Demographic Process

Fertility

Mortality

Marriage Social Mobility

Migration

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DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORSPOPULATION SIZE

POPULATION DENSITY

SEX RATIO

DEPENDENCY RATIO

BIRTH RATE

DEATH RATE

GROWTH RATE

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

MORTALITY AND FERTILITY RATE

POPULATION STATISTICS

VITAL STATISTICS

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INDIA IN NUMBERS

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POPULATION SIZE

• India’s current population – 1.21 billion• The growth rate of population for India in the

last decade – 17.64%

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POPULATION DENSITY• Occupies 2.4% of the world

surface area• It supports 17.5% of worlds

population• Density - 382 per square km

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SEX RATIONumber of females per 1000 males in the population

CAUSES OF LOW SEX RATIO• Strong male child preference• Consequent gender inequalities• Neglect of girl child• Female infenticide• Female foeticide• High MMR• Male bias in population enumeration

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AGE COMPOSITION• Proportion of population < 14 yrs. – “DECLINING TREND”• Proportion of the elderly “INCREASING”

POPULATION PYRAMIDRepresents age structure of a population

A type of double sided bar graph- % of population Males Vs. Females on opposite sides- Shape of graph correlates with rate of population growth

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INTERPRETING POPULATION PYRAMID• Developing countries = rapid growth = more

young than old• Developed countries = slow growth = about

equal numbers of all age groups

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ACCORDING TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION STAGES

• Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and have low birth rates;

• Most developing countries are in the process of this transition.[

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FERTILITY• Total number of children borne by a

women at a point of time during her child bearing age (15 to 45 years)

• Total fertility rate(TFR) gives an idea of total family size• TFR in India: 2.68 (NFHS -3)

Family size depends uponDuration of marriageEducation of coupleNo of live birthsContraception methodSocio economic status

“2 CHILD FAMILY NORM :LONG TERM GOAL NRR=1

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MORTALITYRefers to the number of deaths.

MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE INFANT MORTALITY RATE

(maternal deaths per 1,00,000 live births)

INDIA 2007 to 09 - 212 2011 to 12 - 178

CAUSES Haemorrhage Infection(sepsis) Eclampsia Obstructed Labour

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LIFE EXPECTANCY• Expectation of life – at a given age is the

average number of years which a person of that age may expect to live, according to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country

Indicator of country’s level of development & overall health status of the population

Expectation of life at birth – world

1950 : 46.5 years2002 :63 years

Census 2011 : the value of life expectancy at birth in India- 65.48 as of 2011

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DEPENDENCY RATIO

FOR THE YEAR 2010 :• Young age dependency ratio -47.9%• Old age dependency ratio - 7.7%

DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN• Increase TDR• Cause of economic burden

Total Dependency Ratio = 0-14 Years + 65 Years And Above 15 To 65 Years

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LITERACY AND EDUCATIONA person (7 yrs or more) is considered as literate if he or

she can read & write with understanding in any language.

Highest literacy rate in India – KERALA (93.91)Low for – Bihar (63.82)

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MIGRATION

IMMIGRATIONHappens when one enters the country of destination but not permanently.

Migration affects population patterns.

EMIGRATIONHappens when one leaves ones’s country in order to move into another permanently.

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URBANIZATIONCENSUS 2011 Rural Population

(million)

Urban Population (million)

Increase in Urban Population (%)

INDIA 833.1 377.1 3.35

CAUSES OF URBANIZATION:

MIGRATION• Better employment opportunities• Better living standards• Better availability of social services like Education, Health, Transport, Entertainment etc

INTERNAL MIGRATIONWithin the country

Rural UrbanURBANIZATION

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DEMOGRAPHIC DATA• Demographic Data or Demographics

are the quantifiable statistics of a given population.

SOURCES

CensusVital Registration Statistics System Sample or special Surveys

Demographic data Gathered andProcessed by Government Agencies

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• China is the most populated country with approximately 1.39 billion people in 2014.

• India’s population will reach 1.53 billion by 2050 and will be the highest in world

CAUSE - Higher population growth of india 1.2 % compared to 5% of china.

POPULATION EXPLOSION

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CAUSES OF OVERPOPULATION IN INDIA

Birth rate The Fertility Rate

IS POPULATION GROWTH A BLESSING OR A CURSE?

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BLESSING

• Better economy

• Efficient utilization of resources

• Medical, agricultural and industrial growth

• Better Labour Force

• Greater Investments and Capital Formation

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CURSE

• Shortage of Food and land

• Environmental Problems

• Problem of Unemployment

• Poverty and Low Standard of Living

• Inflation

• Conflict and war

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National Population Policy -2000,India aims at

SHORT TERM: Fullfill unmet need for contraception, strengthening the health infrastructure, integrating the services for Reproductive and Child Health.MEDIUM TERM: Effective implementation of inter sector strategies to substantially reduce the TFR by 2010.LONG TERM : To sustain the economic growth, social development and eco- conservation, stabilise the population by 2045.

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CONCLUSION• Health status of a community depends upon

the dynamic relationship between the number of people, their composition and distribution.

• Planning of health services can be guided by demographic variables.

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REFERENCES

1. 2011 Census Of India2. Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World

Population Data Sheet3. K. Park, Park’s Textbook of Preventive &Social

Medicine ,21st Edition 4. MC Gupta & BK Mahajan,Text Book of

Preventive & Social Medicine,3rd Edition5. Soben Peter, Essentials of Preventive

&Community Dentistry, 4th Edition

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Thank You!