Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

Lecture 17

Sociology SOCI 20182

Population Policy

Recent UN Report World Population Policies 2007

Based on official views regarding population processes and policies in 195 countries world-wide

Considers evolution of population policies in 1976-2006

Major concerns on population issues

90% countries are concerned with spread of HIV infection (93% developing countries and 81% developed countries)

73% countries are concerned with high infant mortality

70% countries are concerned with high maternal mortality

81% developed countries are concerned with population aging (55% all countries)

Major concerns of the developed world

HIV/AIDS – 81% Population aging – 81% Low fertility – 61% Size of the population of working

age – 61%

Government Views on Population Growth

Population policies related to population growth

Russian Government Views and Policies on

Population Growth

1996 2007

View on population growth

Satisfactory Too low

Policy on population growth

No intervention

Raise

Population growth - conclusions

Now more developed countries are concerned with low population growth

Proportion of developed countries with policies to modify their population growth increased (from 23% in 1996 to 37% in 2007)

Population aging In 2007, 55% countries were

concerned by the consequences of population aging

Population aging is the second concern (after HIV) for the governments of developed countries

Government concern about population aging in 2007

Government concern about the size of the labor force population,

2007

Russian Government

No data for 1996

In 2007, major concern about population aging and size of the working-age population

Population policies to alleviate the consequences of

population aging In 2002-2006 pension age was

increased in 41 out of 164 countries The age of retirement providing a

right for a full pension is 60 years for men in 60% countries. The same age for women in 40% countries

However half of men in the European Union retire at age 61.5 years and half of women retire before age 60

Fertility (polarization of

views) Proportion of countries satisfied with their

level of fertility declined from 53% in 1976 to 35% in 2007

Proportion of the least developed countries concerned with high level of fertility increased from 31% in 1976 to 90% in 2007

Proportion of developed countries concerned with too low level of fertility increased from 21% in 1976 to 61% in 2007

Government policies on the level of fertility

Government policies on the level of fertility

Population policies implemented in developed countries to increase

fertility Child support payments Family support payments Maternity leave and leave for

child care Medical subsidies for child care Tax benefits Housing subsidies Flexible work schedule for

parents with children

Governments providing direct support to facilitate access to

modern contraceptive methods

Policies on availability of modern contraception

Government concern about teenage births

Concerns predominantly countries of America (South and North) and Africa

Russian Government Views and Policies1996 2007

View on fertility level

Too low Too low

Policy on fertility

No intervention

Raise

Access to contraception

Direct support

Indirect support

Adolescent fertility: Level of concern

Minor concern Major concern

Policy Yes No

New measures to stimulate fertility

in Russia (effective January

1, 2007): increase in payments to mothers

with children younger than 1.5 years

Doubling the support level, and broader outreach, not just extremely poor

New measures to stimulate fertility

in Russia (2) maternal (family)

capital  (financial certificate

for mothers with 2 children and more)

subsidized mortgages for families with 2+ children, child education, pension, etc., (250,000 rubles, about $10,000)

New Measures to stimulate fertility in

Russia (3) subsidized pre-school

child care

20% subsidy for one child 50% for two children 70% for 3 and more children

New measures to stimulate fertility in

Russia (4)

financial support to persons and families, who adopted an orphaned or abandoned child

Shift to in-family care as opposed to institutionalized care

3 times raise in benefits:4,000+ rubles per month for child, and 2,500+ rubles per month for ‘parenting’ job

Mortality and Health

Proportion of countries satisfied with their level of mortality increased (due to decreased concerns in developing countries)

Proportion of countries concerned with their level of

mortality

Proportion of countries concerned with their level of

child mortality

Government concerns about HIV spread

Distribution of countries according to the measures to respond to HIV/AIDS

epidemics

Russian Government Views and Policies1996 2007

Views

Life expectancy at birth

Unacceptable Unacceptable

Under-five mortality

Unacceptable Unacceptable

Maternal mortality

----- Unacceptable

Concern about HIV/AIDS

Minor concern Major concern

Policy about HIV --- Yes

Population spatial distribution

Urbanization. In 1950-2005 urban population increased more than 4 times

Initially – population excess in rural areas, migration to cities

Finally – overcrowding of urban areas, particularly in large urban agglomerations

Government concern about population spatial distribution

Government policies related to internal migration, 2007

Government policies regarding migration to urban

agglomerations

Russian Government Views on Internal Migration

1996. Views on spatial distribution – Major change desired to make population spatial distribution more even

2007. Views on spatial distribution – Major change desired to make population spatial distribution more even

Immigration Significant changes in attitudes to

immigration compared to the 1990s In 1996, 33% of developed

countries considered the level of immigration too high. Only 6% in 2007.

In 2007, 10% of developed countries considered the level of immigration too low.

Shift to less restrictive immigration policy

Government views on the level of immigration

Government policy related to different types of migration, 2007

Russian Government Views and Policies

1996 2007Views on immigration Too high Too lowPolicy on immigration: Lower Raise - Permanent settlement

Lower Raise

- Temporary workers Maintain Raise - Skilled workers ---- Raise - Family reunification No interv. No

interv.Integration of non-citizens

Yes Yes

Emigration Growing number of countries consider

their level of emigration as too high: 13% in 1976 29% in 2007

However, some developing countries with young population and high unemployment rate promote emigration (Vietnam, Philippines)

Government views on emigration

Government policies on emigration

Russian Government Views and Policies

1996 2007

Views on emigration Too high Too high

Policy on emigration Lower No intervention

Encouraging return of citizens

Yes Yes

Russian President on Demographic Situation in Russia

(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006)

Demographic problem is "the most urgent problem of modern Russia"

Demographic situation is "critical" "We talked at lot on this topic but did little." Government is "too slow with unacceptable

bureaucracy in resolving the problem"

Suggested 10+ year program with three priorities:

-- to decrease mortality -- effective migration policy -- to increase fertility

Russian President on How to Decrease Mortality

(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006)

Program to prevent traffic accidents and improve road safety

To eradicate production and import of alcohol surrogates (poisoned alcohol)

National Project "Health" focused on prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and other major causes of death.

Comment: No direct mentioning of alcoholism problem

(by "pure", not poisoned alcohol) No direct mentioning of smoking problem

Russian President on Priorities in Migration Policy

(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10, 2006)

Returning back Russian compatriots from abroad (repatriation)

Preferences should be given to educated immigrants without criminal record

Immigrants should respect Russian culture and traditions (Russian language?)

Comment: Not much is done yet to enforce these wishes

March 15, 2010 Exam

Multiple-choice questions

Questions do not extend beyond the lectures

Requirements General understanding of demographic

indicators (fertility, marriage, mortality, population aging) – their pros and cons. No need to memorize exact formulas.

Knowledge of major trends in population growth, fertility/reproductive health, mortality, migration and population aging during the transition period (1990-2000) in Russia.

New trends during the last decade (2000-2010) in Russia.

Major factors affecting fertility, mortality and population aging in Russia

Understanding population pyramids