Demography of the Middle East

John Bongaarts

Population Council

Middle East Region

1) Population growth and consequences

2) Age structure changes: youth “bulge”, labor force growth

3) Why population growth continues

4) Population policy options

Outline

Population size, Middle East

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Source: UN 2005

Population size 2005 and 2050

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Pakistan

Egypt

Iran

Sudan

Algeria

Morocco

Afghanistan

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Millions

20502005

Source: United Nations 2005

0 50 100 150

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa/Near East

Asia Pacific

South America

North America

Europe

% in use

% of potential arable land in use

Source: FAO

Adverse Effects of Rapid Population Growth

• Governmental: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure

• Economic: Low wages, poverty, slow growth

• Environmental: Degradation of natural resources (land, water), pollution

• Political Growth of political extremism and anti-Western sentiments

2) Age structure changes:

youth “bulge”, labor force growth

0 5 10

0

15

30

45

60

75

Ag

e

Millions

1950

0 10 20

2000

0 10 20 30

2050

Population by age: Pakistan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075

% o

f po

pula

tion

Youth : Percent of population aged 15-24

Pakistan

Iran

Egypt

40

50

60

70

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

Labor force : Percent of population aged 15-64

Pakistan

IranEgypt

3) Why population growth continues

Why population growth continues in the developing world

Fertility remains relatively high

Declining mortality

Population momentum due to a young age structure

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Bir

ths

pe

r w

om

an Middle East

Fertility trends and projections in Middle East

0

100

200

300

1950 2000 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

siz

e (m

illio

ns)

Source: UN 2005

Effect of

High Fertility

Momentum, mortality decline

Components of population growth, Pakistan

4) Population policy options

Implement family planning programs to:

• Provide access to and information about contraception

• Reduce unmet need for contraception

Past response to concern about population growth

1) High fertility Strengthen family

planning programs

Causes of growth Policy options

2) Declining mortality

3) Momentum of population growth

Delay childbearing

Invest in human capital - Wanted

- Unwanted

0

100

200

300

400

1950 2000 2050 2100

Bill

ion

s

Source: United Nations 2005

High

Medium

Low

Population projection variants, Pakistan

1) ME population is expected to double by 2050

2) Substantial environmental, economic and political consequences

3) Policy options available:

- strengthen family planning programs

- invest in human capital

- address needs of the young

Conclusions