denver workforce integration network symposium€¦ · role of labor market information office: •...

Denver Workforce Integration

Network Symposium

January 23, 2020

Metro Denver Labor Market

Trends and Projections

Ryan Gedney

Senior Economist

Labor Market Information, CDLE January 23, 2020

This presentation will be divided into four main sections:

1. Defining the Denver Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

2. Labor market characteristics and trends for the Denver MSA

3. Net migration and job flow trends for the Denver MSA

4. Short-term (2019-21) industry and occupation projections for the Denver MSA

Role of Labor Market Information office:

• Work contractually with U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics to produce official BLS labor market

estimates for Colorado and sub-state areas

• These estimates are comparable to every

geographic region across the U.S. and across time

• We produce a lot of data, but some of the most

popular are for: nonfarm payroll jobs;

unemployment rate; occupational wages and

employment; and industry wages and employment

• We also generate short (2yr) and long-term (10yr)

projections by industry and occupation for

Colorado and sub-state areas

10 Counties Make Up the Denver MSA:

• Adams

• Arapahoe

• Broomfield

• Clear Creek

• Denver

• Douglas

• Elbert

• Gilpin

• Jefferson

• Park

Distribution of 2018 Employment, Businesses, &

Population by 10 Counties within Denver MSA

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Colorado State Demography Office

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Denver Arapahoe Jefferson Adams Douglas Broomfield Elbert Park ClearCreek

Gilpin

Share of employment

Share of businesses

Share of population

Of Those Who Live In Denver MSA & Also Work,

30% Are Employed Within Denver County

Denver MSA

County Live In

#1 County

Employed In

#2 County

Employed In

#3 County

Employed In

Denver County

Share

Adams Adams Denver Jefferson 25.6%

Arapahoe Arapahoe Denver Adams 29.7%

Broomfield Boulder Denver Adams 17.9%

Clear Creek Clear Creek Jefferson Denver 15.4%

Denver Denver Arapahoe Adams 45.3%

Douglas Arapahoe Douglas Denver 21.0%

Elbert Arapahoe Douglas Denver 14.7%

Gilpin Gilpin Boulder Jefferson 10.5%

Jefferson Jefferson Denver Arapahoe 25.8%

Park Jefferson Park Denver 13.8%

Total = 30.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, OntheMap county destination data for 2017 (all jobs)

Share of Colorado’s 2018 Employment,

Businesses, & Population within Denver MSA

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Colorado State Demography Office

55.9%

44.1%51.9%48.1%

51.5%48.5%

Employment Businesses

Population

Denver MSA Share

Rest of State Share

Share of Denver MSA 16+ Population by

Age Cohort

Source: Colorado State Demography Office

15.2%

12.4%

22.2%

19.2%

23.0%

18.7%17.9%

15.5%

21.8%

34.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1998 2008 2018 2028*

55+

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

16 to 24

*Forecast

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS); National Bureau of Economic Research

Unemployment Rates Historically Low in

Denver, Colorado, and the U.S.

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Denver

MSA

U.S.

CO

Shaded area denotes

U.S. recession

Colorado Nonfarm Payroll Growth

Since 2010 (by Area)

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2019, seasonally adjusted

Greeley

Fort Collins

Denver

Colorado

CO Springs

Boulder

GrandJunction

Pueblo

U.S.

Non-Metro CO

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nonfarm Payroll Growth by Select Metro

Areas Since 2010

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Employment Statistics (CES) – Jan 2010 to Nov 2019, seasonally adjusted

-5%

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45%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.S.

Austin

Nashville

Seattle

Denver

Boise

Portland

Salt Lake CityPhoenix

Distribution of Denver MSA Industry Employment

For 2nd Quarter 2019

IndustryQ2 2019

Employment

Share of

TotalIndustry

Q2 2019

Employment

Share of

Total

Total 1,517,600 N/A Wholesale Trade 73,900 4.9%

Healthcare & Social

Assistance185,300 12.2% Manufacturing 71,000 4.7%

Accommodation & Food

Services145,800 9.6%

Transportation &

Warehousing67,200 4.4%

Professional &

Technical Services145,800 9.6% Information 51,500 3.4%

Retail Trade 137,700 9.1% Other Services 47,500 3.1%

Educational Services 112,600 7.4%Management of

Companies34,100 2.2%

Construction 102,200 6.7%Arts, Entertainment, &

Recreation33,300 2.2%

Admin. & Support Svcs. 101,800 6.7%Real Estate, Rental, &

Leasing31,300 2.1%

Finance & Insurance 78,200 5.2% Mining 11,000 0.7%

Public Administration 75,200 5.0% Utilities 5,900 0.4%

Agriculture 4,300 0.3%

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), all ownerships

*Bolded industries are more highly concentrated in Denver MSA vs. U.S.

Denver MSA Industry Job Growth Since

2010Q2 (by Goods-Producing Industries)

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Agriculture

Manufacturing

Mining

All

Industries

Construction

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)


2010Q2 (by Large Service-Providing Industries)


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Admin. & Support

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Public

Administration

Retail Trade

Education Services

Finance &

Insurance


2010Q2 (by Small Service-Providing Industries)


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Management of Companies

Transportation &

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Real Estate, Rental,

& Leasing

Other Services

Arts, Entertainment,

& Recreation

Information

Wholesale Trade

Utilities

Denver MSA Annual Changes in Net Migration

and Population Over Past 30 Years (1988 – 2018)

Source: Colorado State Demography Office

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Annual change in population

= (births – deaths) + net migration

Annual change in net migration

(difference in those moving in

vs. those moving out)

Intro to Job-to-Job (J2J) Flows data:

• J2J is product from U.S. Census Bureau and their

Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program

• Rich set of job mobility statistics available at the

national, state, and metropolitan area levels

• Combines SSN-level wage & industry employment

data provided by LMI shops across U.S. with SSN-

level demographic information from Census Bureau

• Some highlights of J2J data include:

• Can be utilized as a proxy for analyzing

migration flows between various geographic

areas

• Contains useful industry, demographic (age, sex,

race/ethnicity), and earnings informationAdditional information on J2J is available at: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/#j2j and https://lehd.ces.census.gov/doc/j2j_101.pdf

J2J as Migration Proxy for Denver MSA:

• I analyzed aggregated counts of employed individuals

that flowed into and out of the Denver MSA from other

areas within and outside of Colorado [Net Job Flows]

• While these data represent a relatively small share of

overall employment activity in the Denver MSA, they

reveal some insightful trends

• Data caveats:

• Substantial lag – most recent data from Q1 2018

• Job flows only capture individuals with a short or

no nonemployment spell

• Charts in upcoming slides represent net flows on

a four-quarter moving basis, which removes

seasonal effects

Cities Denver Has Lost Most Workers To,

According to Oct ‘19 Linkedin Workforce Report

Source: Linkedin Workforce Report for Denver, October 2019 (https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-october-2019-denver-co)

Cities Denver Has Gained Most Workers From,

According to Oct ‘19 Linkedin Workforce Report

Source: Linkedin Workforce Report for Denver, October 2019 (https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-october-2019-denver-co)

Net Job-to-Job Flows Between Denver MSA

and Six Select Metro Areas [Negative Flows]

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*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other metro area, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)

**Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, Job-to-Job Flows data


and Six Select Metro Areas [Positive Flows]




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and Other Colorado Areas [Negative Flows]



+Non-metro Colorado is an aggregation of every county in the state that is not part of a metropolitan statistical area (47 total counties)


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Pueblo

Combined Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and Other Colorado Areas

*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other CO areas, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)



542 540

844 868

1,230

1,397

1,623

1,189 1,199

1,383

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934

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Combined Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and All Other U.S. Areas+

*Left axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and all other U.S. areas, on a four-quarter moving basis (green = positive; red = negative)

**Right axis represents share of combined net flows between Denver and select metros [black line = six positive metros; blue line adds Houston & L.A.]

***Horizontal axis represents the four-quarter moving period [e.g. 2018 Q1 captures the total net flow from 2nd quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018]

+All other U.S. areas = 372 metropolitan statistical areas and non-metro aggregated areas for 47 states (excludes AK, ME, and SD)


0%

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Share below + Houston

and Los Angeles

Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis,

New York, SF, D.C. share

Snapshot* of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and Other CO Areas, by Age Cohort

*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and other CO areas, for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 (green = positive; red = negative)

**Horizontal axis represents detailed age cohorts


176

-212

848

204

-364

-172

-288

12

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99

*Vertical axis represents the total net flow of jobs between Denver and 12 select metro areas, for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018 (green = six positive flow metro areas

from prior slides; red = six negative flow metro areas from prior slides)

**Horizontal axis represents broader age cohorts


-4

-304

-120-188 -164

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2,280

852

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14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Snapshot* of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and Select Metros, by Age Cohort

Six Negative Flow Metro Areas

Industry Sector Share of Four-Quarter Net Flow

Retail Trade 32%

Admin & Support Services 23%

Transportation & Warehousing 21%

Finance & Insurance 12%

Manufacturing 9%

Snapshot of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and Select Metros, by Industry*


Six Positive Flow Metro Areas

Professional & Technical Svcs. 22%

Healthcare & Social Assistance 9%

Accommodation & Food Svcs. 8%

Information 7%

Construction 7%

*Reflects net flow by destination industry (e.g. the industry an individual ends up working in when they become employed in their new metro area),

for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018

Top Negative Flow Industries

Industry Sector Top Colorado Areas

Manufacturing Boulder; Greeley

Accommodation & Food Svcs. Non-Metro CO; Boulder

Healthcare & Social Assistance Boulder; Colorado Springs

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Non-Metro CO

Retail Trade Colorado Springs; Grand Junction

Snapshot of Net Job-to-Job Flows Between

Denver MSA and Other CO Areas, by Industry*


Top Positive Flow Industries

Admin & Support Services Boulder; Colorado Springs

Management of Companies Non-Metro CO; Colorado Springs

Transportation & Warehousing Colorado Springs; Boulder

Wholesale Trade Colorado Springs; Boulder

Finance & Insurance Boulder; Fort Collins

*Reflects net flow by destination industry (e.g. the industry an individual ends up working in when they become employed in their new metro area),

for Q2 2017 to Q1 2018

Labor Market Information Projections:

• Short-term released 2x a year (end of January; end of

July); long-term released once a year (end of July)

• Industry trends and occupational staffing patterns

within industries are key in determining projected

employment growth for Colorado and sub-state areas

• Demographic composition (e.g. aging workforce) is

also incorporated as part of this process (especially

for long-term projections)

• While we are aware of emerging workforce dynamics

like automation/AI, “gig” economy, and

education/skills requirements, LMI industry and

occupational projections are primarily based on

established trends

Largest Projected Employment Gains by

Industry Sector and Substate Area (2019 - 2021)

Area Industry SectorProjected

Employment Change

Boulder Prof., Scientific, & Technical Services 1,400 (27% of total)

Colorado Springs Health Care & Social Assistance 2,700 (25%)

Denver Health Care & Social Assistance 8,400 (15%)

Fort Collins Health Care & Social Assistance 1,300 (19%)

Grand Junction Health Care & Social Assistance 650 (26%)

Greeley Construction 900 (16%)

Pueblo Health Care & Social Assistance 300 (25%)

Eastern & Southern CO Health Care & Social Assistance 200 (25%)

Northwest CO Accommodation & Food Services 900 (18%)

Southwest CO Health Care & Social Assistance 500 (16%)

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

*Technical note: while LMI projections do include a self-employed estimate, that group has been removed from share of total industry calculations

Largest Projected Employment Gains by

Industry Sector for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Industry SectorProjected

Employment Change

Share of Total

Projected Change

Total, All Industries 55,700 N/A

Health Care & Social Assistance 8,400 15.0%

Construction 7,600 13.6%

Professional & Technical Services 7,500 13.5%

Accommodation & Food Services 3,900 7.0%

Educational Services 3,900 7.0%

Transportation & Warehousing 3,800 6.8%

Retail Trade 3,000 5.4%

Management of Companies 2,600 4.7%

Admin & Support Services 2,200 3.9%

*Technical note: while LMI projections do include a self-employed estimate, that group has been removed from share of total industry calculations

Fastest Projected Annual Average Growth by

Denver Industry Subsector (2019 - 2021)

Source: CDLE, Division of Labor Standards and Statistics/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Industry Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

2.7%

2.8%

2.8%

3.5%

3.5%

3.7%

3.8%

4.4%

4.4%

4.7%

7.4%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Ambulatory Health Care Services

Support Activities for Transportation

Real Estate

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

Specialty Trade Contractors

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Construction of Buildings

Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services

Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry

Couriers and Messengers

Warehousing and Storage

Average Growth Rate

for All Industries = 1.8%

LMI projected annual openings by occupation can be broken into

three parts:

1. Openings due to growth within industries occupations are

concentrated

2. Openings due to transfers between occupations, as workers

explore possible career choices – more common for younger cohorts

3. Openings due to exits out of the labor force, mainly due to

retirements – more common for older cohorts

Transfers and exits can combine to represent openings due to replacement needs

Denver – Total # of

Openings (2019-2021)

Openings Due

to Growth

Openings Due

to Transfers

Openings Due

To Exits

420,000

(210,000/year)

60,000

(30,000/year)

210,000

(105,000/year)

150,000

(75,000/year)

Share of Total Projected

Openings =>14% 50% 36%

Components of Projected Annual

Openings for Occupations

For more information on projections methodology, go to: www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations-faqs.htm

Largest Projected Annual Openings by Detailed

Occupation for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Occupational TitleAnnual

Openings

Share of Openings Due

to Replacement Needs

Share of Total

Openings

Total, All Occupations 210,000 86% 21.5% [shown]

Combined Food Prep. & Serving

Workers, Including Fast Food7,400 90% 3.5%

Retail Salespersons 7,300 92% 3.5%

Waiters and Waitresses 6,200 94% 3.0%

Cashiers 5,900 98% 2.8%

Customer Services Reps 4,100 90% 2.0%

Laborers & Freight, Stock, and

Material Movers, Hand4,100 85% 1.9%

Business Operations Specialists,

All Other3,400 81% 1.6%

Office Clerks, General 3,400 93% 1.6%

Janitors and Cleaners 3,400 89% 1.6%

Fastest Projected Growth by Detailed

Occupation* for Denver MSA (2019 - 2021)

Source: CDLE, Labor Market Information/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Short-term Occupational Projections from Colorado’s Labor Market Information office

Occupational TitleAnnual

Growth Rate

Annual

Openings

Share of Openings Due

to Replacement Needs

Home Health Aides 4.1% 1,590 74%

Software Developers, Applications 4.0% 1,850 62%

Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters 3.9% 790 73%

HVAC Mechanics & Installers 3.7% 510 72%

Roofers 3.6% 340 73%

Personal Care Aides 3.6% 2,600 80%

Cement Masons and Finishers 3.5% 440 76%

Industrial Truck/Tractor Operators 3.5% 1,070 76%

Sheet Metal Workers 3.5% 330 75%

Health Teachers, Postsecondary 3.4% 550 69%

Construction Supervisors 3.4% 1,380 74%

Marketing Specialists 3.4% 1,490 74%*Occupations with at least 200 projected annual openings; green highlight = exceeds 2018 Denver median wage for all occupations ($45,425)

Summary• Since 2010, the Denver MSA has added jobs at a faster rate

than the State and nearly twice as fast as the U.S.

• Primary industry drivers for Denver’s job growth have

been Professional & Technical Services; Health Care &

Social Assistance; Construction; and Accommodation &

Food Services.

• We expect those industries to continue to drive Denver’s

job growth over the long-term horizon.

• Denver continues to see an influx of job seekers from

larger, more expensive metros, but is experiencing an

outflow to certain metros in the Western U.S. that may be

smaller and/or cheaper to live in.

• However, trends indicate that the Denver MSA is still a

highly desirable location to work and live.

Contact

Information• Email: [email protected]

• Work Phone: 303-318-8858

• LMI Website: www.colmigateway.com

Ryan Gedney

Senior Economist

Labor Market Information, CDLE

denver workforce integration network symposium€¦ · role of labor market information office: •...

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